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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Man, oh man, oh man! What a beautiful weekend! Don't you just want to bottle it up and save it to use this summer when it's miserable out there? The luxurious weather came at a great time, on the weekend, this go around, so I hope you took advantage of it, and enjoyed it. Sunny skies have been present since Friday evening after high pressure built in in the wake of the latest cold front. We really missed out on some much needed rainfall, but we also missed out on the biggest severe weather outbreak so far this season across the country. There has been 37 fatalities from the severe weather outbreak which spanned 3 days and spawn tornadoes in several states from Oklahoma to North Carolina. While our thoughts and prayers are with all the victims of the recent storms, we are rejoicing that we dodged the bullet. We have been blessed with awesome weather this weekend, with pleasant temperatures and extremely low humidity. The mornings have been quite cool with readings in the mid 40s both Saturday and today (Sunday). Afternoon highs still managed to reach the lower 80s on Saturday, and upper 70s today. Temperatures were a bit cooler this afternoon in response to the return flow that has developed across the area as the surface high pushes into Alabama. The shear greatness of the weather this weekend will quickly becoming a fading memory as we start a new work week. Humidity is already increasing, and overnight we will add a stratus deck (low clouds) to the equation. Temperatures will be much warmer to start our Monday with readings only falling into the low to mid 60s across the area. Overall, quiet weather will prevail.
A return of the stagnant pattern we have seen a lot of in recent days is in store this week. The seemingly endless pattern of warm, windy, & humid weather is on tap as the return flow only intensifies in the days ahead. Another Pacific storm system has originated to our West, and Jet Stream energy will create a surface low in the Rockies Monday. This will strengthen the Southerly flow across our area as the pressure gradient stiffens in our part of the world. A general mix of sun and clouds is anticipated. The early morning low cloud deck should mix out somewhat as the day wears on with the sun and wind creating sufficient atmospheric mixing to generate Partly Cloudy skies. Warm conditions will return, and it'll be time to break out the shorts yet again with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. While we will be on the Western edge of a surface high, mid and upper level high pressure will remain firmly in charge, thus suppressing any rain opportunities, and keeping the main thrust of any storm systems to our North. The ongoing drought conditions will only worsen as the week wears on, but we will have any opportunity at all for some much needed rainfall? The rapid but progressive warming trend continues Monday night with overnight lows around the 70 degree threshold. More of the same weather conditions are on tap Tuesday, but afternoon highs will be even warmer in the mid to upper 80s, with the outside possibility that some of the warmest inland locations may flirt with the 90 degree mark, and with high humidity we will be talking about a heat index again.
The best chance for any much needed rain this week looks to come around mid-week as a weakening cold front pushes into the Northern half of the state, possibly down to Central Louisiana Wednesday. This front will have a very hard time reaching our area, and is not currently expected to do so. However, it may be close enough at that time to help at least a few showers & thunderstorms get going when combined with the effects of daytime heating. Certainly, given the atmospheric credentials that will be in place, a widespread rain event is not in the cards, nor is any severe weather at this time, at least not locally. North Louisiana could be under the gun for some severe storms on Wednesday with additional energy available from the weakening cold front. Don't expect a drought buster by any means, and most of us will once again be "hung out to dry" so to speak with respect to the rain. Unseasonably warm & humid conditions will prevail until further notice. Lows should be in the lower 70s once again, and afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s. Only a slight chance of rain is inserted into the forecast for Wednesday. The weakening cold front should stall out across the latter half of the state Wednesday night into Thursday, and in the rich tropical air mass to the South of the front a few scattered showers & storms will still be possible into Thursday before the front retreats Northward as a warm front & the upper level ridge re-strengthens over the area. The onshore flow will prevail, and the short sleeve and shorts weather will continue as well as we head towards Easter.
Rain chances drop back to next to nothing for Good Friday with Partly Cloudy skies, warm, & breezy conditions in place. The continuing series of Pacific storms will continue also with yet another system poised to come up and over the Rockies at week's end. Essentially the same weather pattern will be in existence. Afternoons will be very warm with highs in the mid 80s on average, but upper 80s are certainly feasible. Morning lows will hover around 70 into the weekend. Skies will generally remain Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Some isolated showers are possible especially with the effects of daytime heating. This will almost be like a summer pattern. That takes us up to the all important Easter weekend. Easter is now within the realm of the forecast period. I don't really see much change in the offing through Easter Sunday. We shall remain engaged in a very stubborn pattern of persistence. All major cold fronts will remain to our North with a typical zonal flow (W to E) across our area. The main Jet Stream will remain a good distance to the North of Louisiana suggesting that if any fronts do push this far South, they will be rather weak and the main dynamics will be well away from here. A chance for some isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm is highlighted both Saturday and for Easter Sunday. Most of this activity will bet thermally induced it would appear, but there is also the hint of a weak front pushing into the state Saturday into Easter Sunday. That could add some lift to generate a few more showers & a thunderstorm or two Sunday. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the period. Looking into Spring Break week, more of the same pattern is expected, and it might be time to start assuming that we will slowly begin our transition towards our long hot summer with no real cold fronts in sight.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 63/84 70/87 73/86 0 0 0 10 10 20
CAM 67/79 75/81 76/81 0 0 0 10 10 20
LFT 60/85 68/88 72/87 0 0 0 10 10 20
ARA 62/84 69/86 73/87 0 0 0 10 10 20
BPT 65/85 71/88 75/88 0 0 0 10 10 20
AEX 56/83 66/90 71/85 0 0 0 10 20 30
POE 57/83 67/89 71/86 0 0 0 10 20 30
Tonight...Partly Cloudy. Low 63. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday...Partly Cloudy, Warm, & Windy. High 84. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Monday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 70. SSE wind 10 mph.
Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Warm, & Windy. High 87. South wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 73. South wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Warm w/ a 20% chance of showers. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible. High 86. South wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Continued Warm & humid. Low 68. South wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy & Warm w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 88. South wind 10-20 mph & gusty.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 68. South wind 10 mph.
Good Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. South wind 10-20 mph & gusty.
Monday 4/18/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 8
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 16
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 20
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 20
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 17
9p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
4-18-11
Low: 63
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Tuesday
4-19-11
Low: 70
High: 87
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 15-20
Wednesday
4-20-11
Low: 73
High: 86
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 15-20
Thursday
4-21-11
Holy Thursday
Low: 68
High: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10-20
Friday
4-22-11
Good Friday
Low: 68
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-20
Saturday
4-23-11
Low: 68
High: 87
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
4-24-11
Easter Sunday
Low: 65
High: 85
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Monday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 10:14a.m. 10:00p.m.
High: 4:39a.m. 2:39p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.23'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Palm Sunday
Low: 46
Normal Low: 57
Record Low: 41-1999
High: 80
Normal High: 78
Record High: 89-2003
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.09"
Normal Month to Date: 1.89"
Year to Date: 12.33"
Normal Year to Date: 14.23"
Record: 5.50"- 1973
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 56
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 71
High: 86
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 52
High: 71
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Monday: 6:43a.m.
Sunset Monday: 7:42p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:13a.m.-8:12p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
New Moon- Tuesday May 3
First Quarter- Tuesday May 10
Have a great Monday! God Bless!
-DM
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