SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Much cooler air is en route tonight. It was a very warm, breezy, & humid day with high temperatures exceeding the 85 degree mark. The trend has been above normal for the last few days but this will change in a big way for the next few days thanks to this front. The good news is that we will receive some beneficial rainfall overnight as this boundary lifts the deep moisture in place out ahead of it. A zone of convergence in place along the front has created a line of showers & storms. This area is slowing working its way Eastward through the forecast area. The better news is that there is no severe weather occurring and none is expected through the night. Most of the rainfall is actually just behind the front due to the shallow nature of the cooler air initially. Rainfall totals between 1/2 and 1" are expected mostly overnight. We will see additional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm after midnight as the cooler air filters in. A period of overrunning is expected as an upper level trough hangs back behind the front, and slowly works its way into and through the forecast area. Temperatures will fall off dramatically reaching the mid 50s by sunrise Tuesday as strong CAA takes over. The cold front has passed Lake Charles as of this writing, and will be approaching the heart of Acadiana by midnight. Rain chances should be with us through at least mid-morning on Tuesday, but the rain will become light and spotty in nature. Any rainfall will be much welcomed.
It won't feel like early May at all on Tuesday. A deep trough that allowed this front to pass through the area will be digging over the Eastern 2/3 of the nation keeping CAA going across the Gulf Coast. Clouds and off and on showers will be present through the morning hours Tuesday until the post-frontal disturbance pushes on by. Rain chances will come to an end during the afternoon hours as much drier air filters in over all levels of the atmosphere as high pressure builds towards the NW Gulf Coast. Clouds will likely persist for several more hours, and we may not see much sunshine on Tuesday. The best chance at seeing any sunshine will come late in the day as clouds decrease. High temperatures will likely not make it back to the 70 degree mark. It will feel cooler than that with the clouds and showers around as well as the gusty North winds. Also, making it feel cooler will be the fact that it has been so warm lately. CAA continues into Tuesday night, but winds will decouple as the surface high pressure moves closer to us. Clear skies will be in place, and that will set the stage for a night of good radiational cooling. The end result will be a chilly May night with lows in the mid 40s by Wednesday morning, believe it or not.
These chilly readings may wind up close to record lows. The record low for Wednesday (4 May) at Lake Charles is 46, and I believe reaching this number is possible if winds calm down sufficiently. Either way, it will be very cool to start the day Wednesday, but with plenty of sunshine and very low humidity in place a nice warm up is expected with highs easily back into the mid to upper 70s. Beautiful weather is expected through the end of the work week as the surface high pressure nudges slowly Eastward resulting in a steady state warming trend through Friday. It will be unseasonably cool again on Thursday morning with temperatures generally in the lower 50s with clear skies & light surface winds in place. Highs should be just shy of normal close to the 80 degree mark. It should be another Marvelous May day with humidity on the low side yet again with nothing but clear skies in place. A return flow of Gulf air will commence on Friday, but until after another refreshing morning with lows in the mid 50s again. Plenty of sunshine is still on tap for Friday, and despite an increase in afternoon humidity values it will still feel fairly nice as the deeper moisture will still be located offshore. Temperatures will reach the lower 80s in the afternoon. It sure looks nice heading into the second weekend of Contraband Days.
The weekend will begin to feel much more like early May should across our part of the world. The humidity will return in earnest, and temperatures will heat up as well. We will still see a good deal of sunshine as mid and upper level high pressure will be in control with the fringe effects of surface high pressure over the area. It'll be back to shorts and T-shirts by the time the weekend rolls around. Morning lows will be trending above normal again, and afternoon highs will do so as well. Mid to upper 60s are expected for minimums on Saturday and Sunday, while highs will generally run from the mid to upper 80s both weekend days. It will be a warm but nice Mother's Day on Sunday, if you have plans for mama that include being outside. A dry weekend forecast is expected, and there is no other mention of rainfall through the 7 day forecast period other than the ongoing rain here in the short-term. Persistence prevails Monday with the warming trend continuing. The warmest readings so far this season may venture into the region next week as heights increase with mid and upper level ridging intensifying Monday. Plenty of sunshine is expected, and morning lows will creep back into the lower 70s while afternoon highs flirt with the 90 degree mark, exceeding it in many places. Looking out through the middle of the month, there doesn't appear to be much in the way of change with above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall expected to continue after this brief cool spell.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 56/68 47/77 52/81 60 30 0 0 0 0
CAM 61/71 52/78 55/78 60 30 0 0 0 0
LFT 57/69 48/76 51/80 60 30 0 0 0 0
ARA 58/70 48/78 52/80 60 30 0 0 0 0
BPT 55/70 48/79 53/82 60 30 0 0 0 0
AEX 52/65 44/66 48/77 60 30 0 0 0 0
POE 52/65 44/68 48/78 60 30 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Cloudy w/ showers & a few thunderstorms likely. Turning Much Cooler & Windy. Low 56. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday...Cloudy & Much Cooler w/ a 30% chance of rain in the morning. Decreasing Cloudiness as the afternoon progresses. High 68. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Tuesday Night...Clear & Cool. Low 47. North wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 77. North wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear & Cool. Low 52. Light North wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 81. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 55. Light NE wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 83. East wind 5-10 mph becoming SE in the afternoon.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
5-3-11
Low: 56
High: 68
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Wednesday
5-4-11
Low: 47
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Thursday
5-5-11
Low: 52
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Friday
5-6-11
Low: 55
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: E/SE 5-10
Saturday
5-7-11
Low: 62
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Sunday
5-8-11
Mother's Day
Low: 68
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
5-9-11
Low: 71
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect until 7a.m. Wednesday.*
Tonight...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms likely early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of rain in the morning.
Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...East winds around 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Have a great Tuesday & God bless!
-DM-
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