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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Our next cold front is en route tonight. It was a very humid & warm day on this Thursday as the deep onshore flow resumed with the controlling surface high sliding Eastward through the day. The low cloud deck was pretty prominent in the morning hours, but the clouds mixed out a bit in the afternoon to allow for some intervals of sunshine. It was breezy at times in the afternoon as well due to increasing pressure anomalies ahead of a potent Pacific perturbation moving about the country. The warm & humid pattern continues tonight with Gulf moisture being pumped into the major storm system currently still to our N and W. A tornado outbreak is ongoing across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas tonight. Our atmosphere will remain strongly capped, so despite the approach of a strong cold front a dry forecast is maintained. Overnight lows will be on the warm side, with readings only falling to near the 70 degree mark by sunrise Friday. I couldn't rule out a sprinkle or two overnight similar to what occurred this morning in the warm air advection pattern, but this will be of little consequence. It is not mentioned in the official forecast. The cold front should make decent headway overnight with the current showers & thunderstorms aligning along and ahead of it making progress ENE as well.
The front is still on track for a midday Friday arrival, and the previous forecast philosophy also remains in tact. Little or no rainfall will occur with the frontal passage since it appears the atmosphere will remain largely capped. Mostly Cloudy skies are expected, and temperatures will warm up into the mid 80s for Friday. The front will push into the forecast area between 10a.m. and noon, and be in the Lake Area between noon and 2p.m. before clearing the entire forecast area by 6p.m. Ample moisture will be available, but the main dynamics and instability will clearly bypass this part of the world. Daytime heating combined with the lifting generated by the front itself should help to induce some shower activity. These showers will strictly be on a very scattered basis, and even where it does rain it won't be more than just enough to wet the ground briefly. The most likely time frame to see any hope for rainfall will come between about 10a.m. and 4p.m. when convergence is at its greatest. It would be an entirely different story if conditions would allow for an erosion of the cap. We would be talking about a severe weather outbreak across the area, but that will simply not be the case. There will be a bit beter chance for showers & a few thunderstorms to the East and North of Lake Charles where some weakening of the upper level cap will occur since those areas will be in closer proximity to the main upper level support. A couple of robust or severe storms can't be ruled out of the equation if there is indeed a weaker cap in place, but this is not forecast to occur at this point. The advancing squall line will likely weaken as it moves towards our area, before it flares up again to our East later in the day. A much drier & cooler air mass will filter in behind the cold front, setting us up for a wonderful weekend. We really could use the rain, and the dry and windy conditions behind the front will lead to an increased fire danger across the area, so use extreme caution this weekend.
A refreshing area of high pressure will build in behind said cold front. Clearing skies will rapidly take place Friday night, and temperatures will fall from the low to mid 80s ahead of the front to the lower 50s by Saturday morning. Some of the coldest locations will likely drop to the mid to upper 40s. Plenty of sunshine is expected all weekend with the surface high pressure in control. Mornings will be cool while afternoons will be pleasant with low humidity in place both Saturday & Sunday. Gusty North winds behind the front Friday night will gradually slacken off on Saturday as the surface high pressure builds in. CAA will cease on Saturday as winds become light with the offshore flow prevailing. It may perhaps be a degree or two cooler Saturday night into Sunday morning since the high pressure will be nestled right overhead. Upper 40s may even be realized in the Lake Charles area. You might want to have a light jacket or sweater with you as you head out to Palm Sunday church services, but Sunday should be just as marvelous as Saturday. A quick warm up is expected once the sun comes up. The very dry air in place and crystal clear skies will combine to warm temperatures up quickly with highs ultimately winding up a few degrees warmer than Saturday. Look for mid 70s for Saturday while Sunday's highs will be right around 80 or so. The winds will start to shift during the day Sunday as the surface high evacuates the NW Gulf Coastal Plain. Expect a light return flow by the end of the day.
There's still a lot of unanswered questions as we head into next week. Whether or not we will have a better opportunity for rainfall remains the big question this forecast period. Certainly, the pronounced return flow commences Sunday night into Monday. Low clouds will return by first thing Monday morning with a mild temperature regime back in place. After the cool, refreshing weekend mornings lows will be back in the lower 60s. Skies will generally be Partly to Mostly Cloudy on Monday with a warm air regime in place. Highs will be back in the lower 80s with high humidity. The previous cold front will essentially wash out over the coastal waters with the deep tropical moisture looming too far offshore. It doesn't look real promising for rain with the main storm track staying lodged far too our North. The Southerly flow on the backside of the latest high will increase with storm systems advecting Eastward across the country to our North. The drought conditions will prevail with the period of Tuesday-Thursday only offering no more than a minimal chance of showers/thunderstorms as it stands right now. A weak cold front may push into the area towards mid-week, and that could become a focal point for some shower & thunderstorm activity at that time. Again, the main dynamics should bypass our region eliminating any thought of a significant rain event or a tussle with severe weather. A slight chance of showers/storms is mentioned each day Tuesday-Thursday and given the expected warm temperatures these may be thermally induced. It may be a pattern that closely resembles what is to come in just a few short weeks on a more consistent basis. Temperatures will gradually warm up into the lower 70s for low while high temperatures may an uptick towards the upper end of the 80s. It will be time to break out the shorts indeed, and likely have some of you itching and rearing to go for a swim. The forecast will reflect a weak surface boundary sagging into the area Wednesday into Thursday. Hopefully, we will see the chances for rain make a marked increase for next week since we desperately need the rain. Going into the long, hot summer, in a drought situation is not going to be a good thing. Long range models show the potential for a very warm Easter weekend with the possibility of some thunderstorms as well. We shall see what materializes in the coming days!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 69/84 48/76 47/80 0 20 0 0 0 0
CAM 74/78 54/78 53/77 0 20 0 0 0 0
LFT 68/85 47/75 47/80 0 30 0 0 0 0
ARA 70/83 48/76 49/80 0 30 0 0 0 0
BPT 72/86 50/77 48/81 0 20 0 0 0 0
AEX 65/80 44/73 43/77 0 30 0 0 0 0
POE 65/80 44/74 43/78 0 30 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy. Low 69. SSE wind 10 mph.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy w/a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms mainly around midday. Clearing w/ much drier & cooler air moving in late in the day. High 84. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty becoming NNW at 20 mph and gusty in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Clear & Cool. Low 48. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 76. North wind 10 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear & Cool. Low 47. Light North wind.
Sunday...Sunny. High 80. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday 4/15/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 69
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 76
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
A Scattered Shower or Two
Temp: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 18
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Front Sliding Through the Area w/ a Few Showers
Temp: 84
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 20
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 21
9p.m.
Weather: Clear & Cooler
Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
4-15-11
Low: 69
High: 84
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20
Saturday
4-16-11
Low: 48
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
Sunday
4-17-11
Palm Sunday
Low: 47
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
4-18-11
Low: 61
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
4-19-11
Low: 68
High: 86
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Wednesday
4-20-11
Low: 71
High: 88
Rain: 30%
Wind: S 15-20
Thursday
4-21-11
Low: 70
High: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Overnight...S wind around 18 kt. Mostly cloudy. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Friday...S wind 10 to 18 kt becoming WSW in the morning. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Friday Night...SW wind 10 to 12 kt becoming NNW after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 kt. Clear. Seas around 2 ft.
Saturday...N wind 11 to 16 kt becoming variable and less than 5 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. Seas around 2 ft.
Saturday Night...N wind 5 to 8 kt becoming ENE after midnight. Clear. Seas around 1 ft.
Sunday...ENE wind 8 to 14 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Sunny. Seas 1 to 3 ft.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 7:23a.m. 7:45p.m.
High: 1:00a.m. 1:21p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.40'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Low: 61
Normal Low: 57
Record Low: 34-1913
High: 83
Normal High: 77
Record High: 89-1912
Rainfall
Today: Trace
Month to Date: 0.03"
Normal Month to Date: 1.54"
Year to Date: 12.27"
Normal Year to Date: 13.88"
Record: 3.20"- 1991
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 57
High: 85
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 57
High: 80
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 74
High: 83
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 6:46a.m.
Sunset Friday: 7:40p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:16a.m.-8:10p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
New Moon- Tuesday May 3
First Quarter- Tuesday May 10
Have a great Friday! God Bless!
-DM
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