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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...A clearly evident warming trend is ongoing, and we have been enveloped in deeper moisture now for over 24 hours. Today's forecast was right on track with morning low clouds giving way to generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies. It was very warm with highs reaching the low to mid 80s as predicted. It was a rather uneventful weather day across this part of the world, and this is what we can expect through the forecast period. The warming trend continues its upswing tonight with overnight lows only around 70 here in the Lake Area. Mid 70s will suffice for coastal locations with some upper 60s well inland. The re-emergence of the low stratus deck will occur overnight as well, and our Tuesday will be very similar to today's conditions with early morning low clouds in place. Atmospheric mixing as a result of breezy conditions and daytime heating will allow for a transition to generally Partly Cloudy skies yet again. An advancing short wave will move from W to E across the country Tuesday, with the core of this remaining well North of SW Louisiana, but the fringe effects of it may be close enough to weaken the cap in place to produce a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm. This is not likely to happen, and the 20% shown for some areas Tuesday may be optimistic. It will certainly be time to break out the shorts with the warming trend intensifying. Highs should reach the mid to upper 80s across the forecast area, with the warmest locations teasing the 90 degree mark. The long fetch Southerly flow will continue and strengthen as a continuing series of Pacific storms parades across the country to our North.
The main storm track will remain well to our North, thus no large scale weather systems are expected to affect the region through the forecast period. There won't be much day to day change, and this is essentially going to be a temperature forecast. The same general sky conditions should continue Wednesday through Monday, with minimal rain chances at best. The weakening & stalling cold front that I mentioned in the previous forecast will still likely drop into the Northern half of the state late Tuesday into Wednesday, but it appears the mid and upper level ridging will only intensify, so any hope for rain is squandered unfortunately. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy with the repeat performance of morning low clouds expected. Morning lows will continue running much above the seasonal norms only falling into the lower 70s at best. Afternoon highs will be quite warm with mid to upper 80s as well. The gusty Southerly winds will keep it from feeling unbearable each afternoon. Storm systems ejecting from W to E across the country with result in a significant pressure differential across the Gulf Coast. Winds will gusts over 20 mph at times generally each day.
A typical zonal flow will be well established keeping all large scale weather systems away from our area. Only the weakening tail end of cold fronts may dip into the state, to possibly increase rain chances only slightly periodically between now and Easter Sunday. The weather will be on auto pilot for the most part right on through the Easter weekend. It looks like short sleeves and shorts this holiday. There are some signs of better rain chances developing next week, but mainly as a result of a weakening upper level ridge and the effects of daytime heating. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for highs will continue with lows in the low to mid 70s. The warm afternoons may lead to some scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms, almost like a summer pattern. This could be a harbinger of things to come with our summer season just around the corner. The persistent onshore flow will prevail keeping gobs of humidity residing across the area. With the main storm tracking bypassing our area, we won't have to concern ourselves with any threat for severe weather, but at the same time we also will continue to see worsening drought conditions. Many areas are under mandatory burn bans. The city of Lake Charles has issued a burn ban until further notice. Please use caution, and continue to pay attention to the latest announcements concerning the drought conditions across the region.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 71/88 72/88 71/87 0 10 0 10 0 0
CAM 76/81 75/80 76/80 0 10 0 10 0 0
LFT 72/89 73/89 72/88 0 10 0 10 0 0
ARA 74/86 73/85 74/86 0 10 0 10 0 0
BPT 73/90 72/89 71/88 0 10 0 10 0 0
AEX 68/91 72/90 70/90 0 20 0 10 0 0
POE 69/90 72/91 71/90 0 20 0 10 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 71. SSE wind 10 mph.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy & Warm. High 88. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 73. SSE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy & Very Warm. High 88. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 71. SSE wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy & Continued Very Warm & Humid. High 87. SSE wind 10-20 mph & gusty.
Thursday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 70. SSE wind 10 mph.
Good Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 88. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Good Friday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 72. South wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 88. South wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Tuesday 4/19/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 17
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 88
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 20
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 18
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
4-19-11
Low: 71
High: 88
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Wednesday
4-20-11
Low: 72
High: 88
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Thursday
4-21-11
Holy Thursday
Low: 71
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-20
Friday
4-22-11
Good Friday
Low: 70
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
4-23-11
Low: 72
High: 88
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
4-24-11
Easter Sunday
Happy Easter...Christ is Risen!
Low: 73
High: 86
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-20
Monday
4-24-11
Low: 70
High: 89
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 11:03a.m. 10:46p.m.
High: 5:45a.m. 3:11p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.19'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, April 18, 2011
Low: 69
Normal Low: 58
Record Low: 41-1999
High: 83
Normal High: 78
Record High: 89-1948
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.09"
Normal Month to Date: 2.01"
Year to Date: 12.33"
Normal Year to Date: 14.35"
Record: 3.48"- 1938
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 59
High: 83
Rain: Trace
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 67
High: 85
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 44
High: 68
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:42a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 7:43p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:12a.m.-8:13p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
New Moon- Tuesday May 3
First Quarter- Tuesday May 10
Have a great Tuesday! God Bless!
-DM
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