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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Can you believe we are heading into December? Where has the year gone? As we begin December 2010, it feels like Christmas. This also embarks us on the journey into meteorological winter. The meteorological seasons are a few weeks ahead of astronomical seasons. Nevertheless, it is a cold start to December. High pressure is the dominant weather feature as we start this Wednesday morning. This is a very strong area of Canadian high pressure that has built in behind Tuesday morning's cold front. Temperatures are in the frosty zone across the entire area this Wednesday morning, and many locations are at or below the freezing mark. The freeze line is pretty much just north of the coastal parishes, meaning locations along I-10 are experiencing the season's second light freeze. This comes on the heals of the first one this past Saturday. The coldest locations across the area are in the mid to upper 20s this morning. It will be a beautiful day across the forecast area with high pressure essentially overhead this morning. Expect sunny skies and temperatures warming up close to 60 after the cold start this morning. Another cold night is in the offing tonight, with another round of frosty temperatures on tap. It won't be quite as cold with air mass modification ensuing. However, the coldest locations north of I-10 once again experience light freeze conditions. Mid 30s seem logical for the overnight minimums here along I-10 with temperatures closer to 40 along the coast. The clear skies will continue with very light winds in place.
Thursday will be another beautiful day with the early December high pressure remaining in control. The warming trend will be in place full throttle now, with highs reaching the mid 60s on average. The positioning of the strong high pressure will allow for a subtle return flow to commence during the day. It will not be that noticeable yet with humidity values remaining on the low side. The mid 60s maximums will be very close to the normal for early December. The benign weather pattern will carry over into Friday and the weekend. The light onshore flow will maintain itself, and the overall flow will flatten out across the Southern U.S. as this latest trough departs. This means we will transition to a typical zonal flow across this part of the world. A more significant modification of the air mass will commence. It will still be on the cool side Friday morning with lows generally back into the 40s across the area, with a few spotty upper 30s in the coldest locations such as Oakdale. The beautiful weather will remain in place as the moisture return will continue on the subtle side. Afternoon highs Friday will reach or exceed the mid 60s once again, and likely approach 70. It will feel like Indian Summer. The first weekend of December will not feel like the holidays all that much. The warming trend strengthens as does the onshore flow. The end result will by a continued gradual increase in humidity. Temperatures will be mild all weekend, with morning lows in the mid to upper 40s on Saturday reaching the lower 50s by Sunday morning. Fog will become an issue for the late night/early morning hours by the weekend with the presence of deeper low level moisture in place. Any fog will quickly dissipate as the sun comes up, and it will be a fairly nice weekend with plenty of sunshine and some clouds. No rain is expected through Sunday with ridging at the surface and aloft in control of our weather. High temperatures will exceed the 70 degree mark both days. It will be a nice weekend for any outdoor plans, be it putting up your Christmas decorations, or out and about doing some Christmas shopping.
Changes unfold as we get into the first full week of December. Another strong cold front will be approaching by Sunday night into Monday morning. There should be enough moisture present at the low levels for a chance of showers. This idea is reflected in the forecast. Dynamics will be lacking it appears, so not a big chance of rain is expected this go around. We picked up nearly an inch of rain with the last front between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. It is far too early to be specific about amounts, but there is enough consistency from the models to say that this doesn't look like a major rain event, nor does it look like a severe weather threat of any kind. The slight chance of showers is shown for Monday. It will turn sharply colder in the wake of the front Monday. This next front could very well have an Arctic connection. This far out models often have a hard time on the amount and strength of cold air associated with a particular air mass. This could very well be the case, and I will reflect that with this forecast given the upper air pattern shown by models. All indications are that we will not clear out behind this front. Jet Stream energy downstream will likely initiate Western Gulf cyclogenesis in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. This will keep clouds and rain chances over the area through the end of the forecast period. Temperatures on Monday will be challenging as CAA takes over. Morning temperatures should be in the lower 50s, and they will stay there are even fall during the day with the continued cloud cover and intermittent light rain or drizzle that is always possible with a low cloud deck present. Boundary layer moisture will increase into Monday night as the previously mentioned cyclogenesis takes place. This will offer an increase in rain chances heading into Tuesday as the low slides NE along the frontal boundary through the coastal waters. This will send a slug of moisture up and over the area, and create a warm layer of air aloft. This means overrunning post-frontal rains are expected for Tuesday. CAA will continue all the while as the modified Arctic air mass continues to filter into the region. Morning lows will be in the 40s, and afternoon highs will be hard pressed to reach the 50 degree mark with the continued CAA and clouds and rain over the area. There will also be the presence of a stiff NE wind with the advancing low over the Gulf. Some would refer to this type of weather as perfect duck hunting weather. I refer to it as perfect gumbo weather. No matter what you prefer, next week looks colder for a prolonged period. The low will move into the Central and Eastern Gulf just beyond this forecast period, and will continue to allow for colder air to filter into the region. This means that even colder weather is possible just beyond this forecast period by the middle and latter portions of next week. The overrunning situation may persist at least into Wednesday, keeping some chance for a cold rain in place. A further assessment of all these possibilities will be forthcoming in the days ahead.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 31/60 34/65 43/68 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 31/59 34/64 42/68 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 32/61 35/65 44/70 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 27/58 30/63 38/66 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 27/58 30/63 38/66 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 32/59 35/64 42/69 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Cold w/ a Light Freeze. Low 31. NW wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 60. North wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Cold w/ areas of Frost. Low 34. Light NE wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 65. East wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear and Not as Cold. Low 42. Light SE wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 68. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday 12/1/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cold
Temp: 31
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 5
W.C.: 28
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 44
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6
W.C.: 40
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
12-1-10
Low: 31
High: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-40 A.M.
Thursday
12-2-10
Low: 34
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
W.C.: 30-40 A.M.
Friday
12-3-10
Low: 43
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Saturday
12-4-10
Low: 48
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Sunday
12-5-10
Low: 54
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
12-6-10
Low: 51
High: 53
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-25
Tuesday
12-7-10
Pearl Harbor Day
Low: 41
High: 47
Rain: 40%
Wind: NNE 15-25
W.C.: 30s
...Tropical Update...
This is the final tropical update for the 2010 season. Hurricane season officially ended at midnight, and it ended on a quiet note. In all, 2010 was a very active season with 19 named storms. This tied for the 3rd most storms ever in one season. However, as active as it was no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. in the 2010 season. A few tropical storms made landfall including Bonnie and Hermine. The most influential storm of the season was Alex, which hit an unpopulated area of Northern Mexico in late June. This storm sideswiped South Texas with tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall and flooding in the Rio Grande Valley. Louisiana escaped virtually unscathed during the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Thank God for that! The last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was Ike in September of 2008. This section of the blog is discontinued until June 1, 2011.
...Marine Forecast...
Conditions remain rough in the offshore waters in the wake of Tuesday morning's cold front. High pressure in building in from Texas, and the rough seas will subside to a light chop later today.
*Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6a.m. Wednesday.*
Tonight...North winds 20 knots...subsiding to 15 knots late. Seas 3 to 6 feet.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night And Friday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
......Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 5:05a.m. 5:49p.m.
High: 12:29a.m. 10:29p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.23'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Low: 37
Normal Low: 46
Record Low: 23-1976
High: 72
Normal High: 66
Record High: 86-1912
Rainfall
Today: 0.92"
Month to Date: 4.32"
Normal Month to Date: 4.61"
Year to Date: 32.57"
Normal Year to Date: 52.59"
Record: 3.21"- 1968
Sensible Weather Observed:
Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Rain
Light Rain
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 50
High: 70
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 37
High: 62
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 45
High: 64
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:51a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:12p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:21a.m.-5:42p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Sunday December 5
First Quarter- Monday December 13
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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