SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The coldest air of the season is here. An Arctic cold front moved through the area right on schedule Saturday evening. Today was quite a contrast weather wise when compared to Saturday. After highs in the 70s on Sunday, temperatures struggled to reach the 50s across the area today. Adding insult to injury were strong-post frontal winds due to a tight pressure gradient associated with the strong front. Strong NW winds on the order of 15-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph at times were commonplace across the area throughout the day. That made it feel even colder, despite wall to wall sunshine on this Sunday. The Arctic high pressure continues to build over the area, and CAA continues tonight. Clear skies and very dry air in place, and the continued strong winds will result in a night of advection cooling. Winds will decrease somewhat mainly due to the usual effects of nighttime (the amount of mixing is lower in the overnight hours). However, with the strong high still to our NW winds will remain in the 10-15 mph range through the night. Temperatures will fall off quickly, and the stage is set for a hard freeze across the entire area. This will easily be the coldest night of the season thus far. By sunrise Monday, it will be very cold by SW Louisiana standards with temperatures ranging from the upper 10s in the coldest locations to the upper 20a at the immediate coast. These temperatures combined with the breezy North winds will result in wind chill values in the 10s to start the day. The continued Northerly breeze should keep us from approaching record lows across the area, however, should the winds decouple faster than anticipated than the projected low of 24 may be too high, and records in some areas could be threatened. Certainly, the record low of 18 at LCH seems safe for Monday. You will want to wear layers of clothing to keep yourself warm, and also allow extra time before you leave for work or school, so you can allow your vehicle to warm up. This will be a significant killing freeze across the entire state. Be sure to protect your plants, pets, and this time around it will be a good idea to protect the pipes. While it is very cold here, we didn't get the brunt of the transport of Arctic air, so it could easily be much colder here. Many locations East of the Mississippi won't get above freezing until sometime on Tuesday with lows down into the lower 10s in many locations in Mississippi and Alabama.
Arctic high pressure controls the weather for Monday, and it will remain on the cold side. After the morning hard freeze, a modest warm up is expected with highs reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. However, it will feel better than it did on Sunday because the winds will slacken during the day as the Arctic high pressure makes its closest approach to our area. Deep blue skies and nothing but cold sunshine are expected as we start the second full work week of December. Another cold night is on tap for Monday night into Tuesday morning as the Arctic air mass slowly begins to modify. The Arctic air will start to slide further East negating the continuation of CAA. However, it will still be very cold with another hard freeze expected across the majority of the area. Coastal parishes may be exempt from the hard freeze during this time frame, but certainly a light freeze is expected even for the coastal marshes. It will likely be a few degrees warmer across the area due to the modification of the air mass, though with lighter winds and super dry air still in place I do suppose that it could be at least as cold as tonight. Either way, it will be cold and 20s are expected area wide yet again. A more significant modification of this Arctic intrusion will take shape during the day Tuesday as the high shifts off to the East, and will be oriented to our NE. This will result in the commencement of a return flow of low level moisture off the Gulf. This will slowly bring back the humidity over the area. A sunny day is expected, and temperatures will warm up into the high end of the 50s, with a few locations possibly cracking the 60 degree threshold.
The warming trend comes back with a vengeance at mid-week. It will be much warmer for Tuesday night into Wednesday. The Gulf flow becomes the main weather feature, and the end result will be a complete flip flop in temperatures from well below normal to above normal once again. Clouds will increase in response to the return of the humidity and Gulf air. Model guidance suggest that the previous boundary may lift Northward as a warm front in the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame. I may have to introduce a slight chance of a shower for this time period tomorrow if the current trends keep up. Certainly, an increase in clouds is noted along with much warmer temperatures. Temperatures won't change all that much in the overnight hours heading into Wednesday. In fact, it is conceivable that temperatures may rise after midnight. The overnight low is currently projected to range from the mid to upper 40s in the coldest locations to the mid 50s at the coast as the Southerly flow strengthens. I can't rule out the possibility of warm air advection fog either, but this doesn't look like a major issue at this juncture. While this cold air makes it feel like Christmas, it will feel like anything but Christmas by Wednesday as highs top out near 70. The normal high for mid-December is in the lower 60s, so you can clearly see this illustrates a trend to above normal. Moisture in the lower levels, and the lifting warm front may again result in a slight chance for some showers during the day Wednesday, but this doesn't look like a major rain event by any stretch.
Our next cold front should be approaching the area on Thursday. This front doesn't look near as strong as its predecessor. This one will have Pacific origins. As has been the case with the past several fronts, it appears the best lift and dynamics will bypass our region. Certainly, some chance of rain is in the offing with ample amounts of low level moisture in place. The effects of daytime heating will have to be thrown into the equation as well. This seems to be a setup that may favor the development of streamer showers that feed into the main kicker of this system off to our N and E. The digging trough will be more than sufficient to drive the front towards our area sometime Thursday afternoon or evening. Exact timing and specifics of this front will be ironed out as we get closer. The big story for us ahead of this system will be the warm up. We will be talking about highs reaching the mid 70s again on Thursday. Morning lows will be in the mid to upper 50s across the board. This means the up and down weather of December 2010 is going to continue. This is typical of a La Nina year. The front will cross the area sometime late Thursday, but no severe weather is expected as it stands right now. The front will likely slow its forward pace as it nears the forecast area because the mean flow will be more of a zonal flow (W to E) across the Gulf states. A dense fog episode may be realized for Thursday morning as well with all the low-level moisture hanging on.
The front may not completely push through the area until Friday morning. This will keep the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms ongoing into Friday. The mild temperature regime will continue as well. Morning lows on Friday should be a bit cooler as modest CAA takes over in the wake of this Pacific front. Expect morning lows to range from the mid 40s in the colder air to the North to the upper 50s at the coast where it will take the cooler air longer to filter in. The slight chance for rainfall will cease to exist during the day, and conditions will largely improve. Skies will become Sunny in the afternoon as the area of Pacific high pressure builds in. The modest CAA will drop max temps back closer to the norm for mid December. Lower to middle 60s look good for highs to close out this work week. I'm sure many of you still have some Christmas shopping left to do, as do I. It is hard to believe that this next weekend will be the weekend before Christmas. It appears as though we will have dandy December weather for whatever you need to do out and about. The area of Pacific high pressure will be in control full throttle. A renewed NW flow will become established across the area, and this will allow for somewhat colder air over Canada and the Northern U.S. to be tapped into. It will be transported in our direction by the main air stream flow in the re-established NW flow. This will keep us high and dry with plenty of sunshine, and seasonably cool weather. Morning lows will retreat into the 30s once again for both Saturday and Sunday, while afternoon highs fall back into the 50s across the area. No major rain chances appear to be in the cards anytime soon. A sneak peak into Christmas week shows a progressively colder pattern across the Eastern 2/3 of the nation. This could pose a cold Christmas across the Bayou State, but this is shear speculation at this point.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 24/52 27/58 48/70 0 0 0 0 10 10
LFT 24/50 26/57 46/69 0 0 0 0 10 10
BPT 26/53 29/60 50/71 0 0 0 0 10 10
AEX 20/48 23/55 40/66 0 0 0 0 10 10
POE 21/49 24/56 41/67 0 0 0 0 10 10
ARA 25/51 26/57 49/70 0 0 0 0 10 10
*Hard Freeze Warning in effect until 9a.m. Monday.*
Tonight...Clear & Very Cold w/ Hard Freeze Conditions. Low 24. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Wind chills in the 10s by morning.
Monday...Sunny & Cold. High 52. North wind 10 mph becoming NE at 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night...Clear & Very Cold with a Hard Freeze likely once again. Low 27. Light East wind.
Tuesday...Becoming Partly Cloudy & Warmer. High 58. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Partly Cloudy & Much Warmer. Low 50. SSE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Much Warmer. High 70. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday 12/13/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Very Cold, Hard Freeze Conditions
Temp: 24
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 10
W.C.: 17
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny & Cold
Temp: 32
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 25
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
W.C.: 40
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 52
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
9p.m.
Weather: Clear & Cold
Temp: 37
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
W.C.: 35
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
12-13-10
Low: 24
High: 52
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 5-10
W.C.: 15-30
Tuesday
12-14-10
Low: 27
High 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 10-15
Wednesday
12-15-10
Low: 48
High: 70
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
12-16-10
Low: 55
High: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
12-17-10
Low: 48
High: 61
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Saturday
12-18-10
Low: 37
High: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 25-35
Sunday
12-19-10
Low: 32
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-35
...Marine Forecast...
The strong cold front is creating rough conditions in the offshore waters. Look for the rough seas and high waves to slowly abate during the day Monday as high pressure moves from W to E across the Gulf coast.
*A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 6a.m. Monday.*
Tonight...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Monday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 5 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 3:53a.m. 2:31p.m.
High: 9:10a.m. 9:17p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.12'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Low: 34
Normal Low: 44
Record Low: 22-1962
High: 56
Normal High: 64
Record High: 80-2007
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.24"
Normal Month to Date: 1.73"
Year to Date: 32.81"
Normal Year to Date: 54.32"
Record: 2.60"- 1911
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 44
High: 61
Rain: 0.53"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 37
High: 69
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 34
High: 46
Rain: Trace
Sunrise Monday: 7:00a.m.
Sunset Monday: 5:14p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:30a.m.-5:44p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Monday December 13
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Have a great Monday, Stay Warm, & God Bless!
-DM-
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