The blog is in severe weather mode tonight. Regular operations will resume on Tuesday. There is no video blog for this update.
It will remain warm and humid with plenty of clouds in place when it's not raining at your location. A sharp contrast in temperatures will occur. Much drier and cooler air clearly denotes the frontal boundary at present. For example, it is 73 here in Lake Charles as of this writing, and it's already in the 50s in Shreveport. This is just a harbinger of things to come as the front moves into and sweeps through the area in the early morning hours. Moisture will continue to pool ahead of said boundary, and convergence will increase and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the likely category until at least 2-3a.m. Tuesday. The severe weather threat ends instantly with the passage of the front, but the rains may continue for a time in the post-frontal environment early Tuesday morning. Boundary layer moisture will be slow to decrease, and the cooler and drier air between 850 and 700 mb. is lagging behind a bit due to the initially shallow nature of the air mass. Winds will shift from onshore to offshore as the front blows on by. Rough conditions will develop over the coastal waters. Much colder temperatures are in the offing for Tuesday, and it could be a day in which temperatures will be confused. Strong CAA and continued cloud cover with spotty showers will likely mean that temperatures hold steady or drop slowly through the day. Overall, temperatures should remain in the 50s throughout the day, and with clouds, showers, and wind it will certainly feel colder than that. The cold front should make its way into the area between midnight and 4a.m. Skies will slowly begin to clear during the day Tuesday as the boundary layer moisture decreases and strong Canadian high pressure slides down the base of the Rockies toward the area. The chance for lingering showers will come to an end by lunch time at the latest it would appear. I wouldn't rule out seeing some sunshine during the day is over.
The stage will be set for a cold night across the forecast area for Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning. The strong Canadian high will be centered over Texas, and with clear skies and light winds present the stage will be set for ideal radiative cooling across the forecast area. Be sure to protect the plants once again as a light freeze will be likely from I-10 Northward. This will be a very similar air mass to the preceding one from over Thanksgiving weekend. This will not be a pipe busting freeze by any means, but you will certainly want to protect your tender vegetation. Skies will be clear as we start the day Wednesday, and temperatures will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area. The immediate coast will likely avoid the freezing mark, but it will certainly still be a cold morning with readings in the 30s. The air mass is generally a mix of Canadian and Pacific air, therefore, a large diurnal range is expected with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s. This is trending below normal once again with the strong high pressure in control. Wall to wall sunshine is expected for the mid-week period. Very low humidity values will be in place with the continuing offshore flow in place.
Another cold morning is slated for Thursday as the large area of high pressure will only slowly shift Eastward of the forecast area. Clear skies and light winds will once again set the stage for some radiative cooling. Temperatures won't be quite as cold for Thursday morning as air mass modification ensues. Most locales should, however, be in the frosty range once again with 30s across the board. Many locations North of Hwy. 190 will likely experience an early December freeze. The high pressure will remain in control, but be anchored further to our East. As a result, it will remain pleasant with low humidity and plenty of sunshine. High temperatures will be closer to normal for early December back into the low to mid 60s for most. The quiet weather regime takes us into the weekend with plenty of sunshine for Friday and Saturday as well. Air mass modification will continue, and temperatures will return to near the norms for early December. Lows will climb back into the 40s while highs reside in the 60s for the most part. It could approach 70, but it will still feel very nice either way. The controlling high will be positioned to our NE, and will be close enough to keep our weather nice, but at the same time it will also prevent much Gulf influence just yet. The prospects of some late night/early morning fog may be realized as well by Saturday, but this is something that will be re-assessed as the week progresses.
Rounding out the weekend on Sunday, it will remain dry, but a return flow will become established as the high slides further to the East. Low level moisture will begin to increase ushering in higher humidity values, and temperatures will continue to moderate as well. Highs will be near 70 while morning lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. That's essentially normal for this time of year. The weekend looks great for anything you may have planned outdoors. The Saints play on the road this week in Cincinnati against the Bengals. The game is slated for a noon kickoff (1p.m. in Cincinnati). An early peek at the forecast for Southern Ohio looks cold. Skies are expected to be Mostly Cloudy with the outside chance that a snow flurry or two may occur. The morning low will be in the upper 20s, and a high on Sunday during the game will be in the mid to upper 30s. Not unusual for early December in the North. Another cold front will become the main item of interest by Monday of next week. This front should easily work through the area, but right now all models indicate that moisture will be limited. All indications are that there will be very little in the way of a chance of rain ahead of this front, and only a temporary increase in clouds is noted at this time. Temperatures will continue to warm briefly ahead of another strong front. Morning lows for Monday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, while the afternoon high will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The current timing of the front allows for a transition back to CAA during the afternoon, thus resulting in the cooler maximum temperatures. High pressure quickly becomes re-established in the wake of the front. This looks to be the strongest front so far this season, and it may very well tap into some Arctic air. This could pose a threat for a hard freeze by Tuesday of next week, more on that in the days ahead. For now, stay tuned for more on any severe weather for tonight.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 73/50 31/59 34/62 80 20 0 0 0 0
LFT 73/52 30/58 34/62 80 20 0 0 0 0
BPT 70/50 32/60 35/63 80 20 0 0 0 0
AEX 59/48 28/55 30/60 80 20 0 0 0 0
POE 59/48 28/55 31/60 80 20 0 0 0 0
ARA 73/54 32/60 35/63 80 20 0 0 0 0
*Tornado Watch in effect until 4a.m. Tuesday.*
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Some severe storms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. Turning Much Colder after midnight. Temperatures falling from near 73 into the 50s in the pre-dawn hours. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 15-25 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 80%.
Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy, Much Colder, & Windy with a 20% chance of mainly light rain during the morning. Rain ending with clouds beginning to decrease in the afternoon. Temperatures hovering in the 50s throughout the day, perhaps continuing to fall to near 50 in the afternoon. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, diminishing to 10-15 in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Clear & Cold w/ a Light Freeze. Low 31. North wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 59. North wind less than 5 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear & Not Quite as Cold with areas of frost likely. Low 34. Light wind.
Thursday...Sunny & Warmer. High 62. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday 11/30/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Cloudy, Windy, & Much Colder w/ Lingering Showers
Temp: 55
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 18
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Windy, & Colder
Temp: 53
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 21
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Slow Clearing Beginning
Temp: 50
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 22
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly to Partly Cloudy
Temp: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 17
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 12
9p.m.
Weather: Clear & Cold
Temp: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
W.C.: 37
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
11-30-10
Low: 73
High: 50
Rain: 80% Before Daybreak...20% Until Noon
Wind: NNW 15-25
Wednesday
12-1-10
Low: 31
High: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-30 A.M.
Thursday
12-2-10
Low: 34
High: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
W.C.: 30-35 A.M.
Friday
12-3-10
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Saturday
12-4-10
Low: 43
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10
Sunday
12-5-10
Low: 48
High: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
12-6-10
Low: 50
High: 54
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-30
...Tropical Update...
The tropics are quiet, and will remain that way as we close out the season on Tuesday. It was an active year with 19 named storms. A total of none affected SW Louisiana. This section of the blog will be discontinued after Tuesday.
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect Tuesday.*
Tonight...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet...increasing 4 to 7 feet late. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday...North winds 25 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet. A chance of rain in the morning.
Tuesday Night...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Good night, have a great Tuesday & God bless!
-DM-
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