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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was a cold start to the day as promised this morning. A significant freeze occurred across the area with even a light freeze at the coast. Temperatures ranged from around 23 or so at Oakdale to right at 32 along the coast. It was officially 29 here in Lake Charles. That we experienced a freeze is no big surprise. We also dealt with some fog across the area thanks to residual moisture leftover from the previous night's rain. Again the fog was no surprise. Fog is a very common entity around these parts. However, to have fog and freezing temperatures at the same time is an unusual feat for this area. Lo and behold, that is precisely what happened this morning. What is freezing fog? It is exactly that. Fog that forms with temperatures below freezing. The freezing fog lasted for several hours, and was of varying density across the area. It was dense enough in some locations to lower visibilities to below 1 mile. The fog event was significant enough that the National Weather Service issued a Freezing Fog Advisory. This is the first time that I can recall that happening in all my years of keeping track of the weather. Freezing fog is a much more common occurrence in the winter months up North over the snow covered country. If the freezing fog persists long enough and create a very dangerous situation because it will create a thin sheet of ice on nearly every surface. Thankfully, there were no major issues with this event across the area mainly due to the short duration of it. It is just interesting to note since it is a rare item in SW Louisiana.
There will be no mention of freezing fog tonight or anytime in the near future. The warming trend is underway with warm air advection over the area thanks to the return of the onshore flow. After a beautiful day for the most part aside from an increasing mid level cloud deck this afternoon, and temperatures reaching the mid 50s at best, a slow reduction of temperature is occurring tonight as warm air advection tries to offset the typical radiative processes that occur overnight. There will ultimately be a large range of temperatures across the area by Friday morning as we lose the influence of the Arctic air mass, and the marine influence becomes more dominant. Along the coast temperatures will hover near 50, while well inland temperatures will be closer to freezing likely in the mid 30s. Averaging out temperatures to derive tonight's low suggest lower 40s. This is reflected in the current forecast. There hasn't been much overall change in my forecast philosophy from what I laid out last night. The light onshore flow will prevail into Friday morning with generally clear skies across the area. It is possible that some patchy fog may develop after midnight, but even the fog chances are far less tonight. The dry December pattern will transfer into Friday. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy with an increase in humidity and dew points noted area wide. After the cool start, afternoon highs will sneak up close to the norm for the second week of December reaching the low to mid 60s across the area. The onshore flow will intensify as we look upstream for the next weather maker to affect SW Louisiana.
Warm air advection dominates Friday night, and skies will generally be Partly Cloudy. Conditions should be more primed for fog formation after midnight with the idea that advection fog may set up. Thursday morning's fog was radiation fog. The interaction of the warmer Gulf air and the cooler air over land will create this possible advection fog. It could become dense at times and in places after midnight. Certainly, everyone should see an increase in low clouds heading into Saturday morning. Temperatures will fall slowly dropping from the low to mid 60s Friday afternoon to the low to mid 50s at best by Saturday morning. It will remain dry as far as rainfall is concerned at least to start the day Saturday. After the bout of early morning fog, skies will generally be Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Plenty of low level moisture and humidity will be in place. It won't feel like Christmas time at all as high temperatures reach the lower 70s. However, at the same time the strongest cold front of the season thus far will be in transit. This Arctic front will be driven by a digging and sharpening trough over the country. The continued NW flow and active Jet Stream will aid in the progression of the cold front. The cold front will quickly move into the area during the afternoon hours. There will be sufficient low level moisture in place, but the mid and upper levels will remain largely capped. Dynamics and instability will be absent over the forecast area with this front. Therefore, only minimal rain chances are expected with just some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the deeper moisture in the pre-frontal environment. Better chances for rain will exist further North and East. The front quickly zooms into the coastal waters, and a strong CAA pattern becomes established over the area. Temperatures will fall rapidly Saturday night in the post-frontal environment, expect the Arctic winds to be blowing heading into Sunday. Temperatures will likely range from the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. Skies will rapidly clear out in the wake of the front as well as strong high pressure builds in from the Rockies. Sunday will be a deceptively beautiful day with lots of sunshine on the outside. However, with the Arctic air mass firmly entrenched over the area CAA will offset daytime heating. Thus, temperatures will struggle to make it to the 50 degree mark. It will remain windy because of pressure differences between the Arctic high to our NW and the evacuating low to our SE. It will be a great day to sit inside by the fire and watch the Saints game after church.
The coldest air of the season is still on track for Sunday night into Monday through Tuesday. The models are having a hard time with the strength of the cold air. I will continue to undercut guidance. Clear skies and building Arctic high pressure will provide for a very cold night with a hard freeze expected by Monday morning along and North of I-10 with a freeze expected all the way to the coast. By Monday morning, temperatures will be in the mid 20s on average. The coldest locations will likely wind up as cold as 20 or so. Winds will also continue to be an issue with the large Arctic anti-cyclone to our NW. NW winds in the 10-15 mph range will create wind chills in the 10s by sunrise Monday. It will be a very cold start to the second full work week of December. Skies will be sunny with the influence of high pressure in place, but it will be cold. Only expect highs to reach the mid 40s at best across the area. High pressure will be centered essentially right overhead Monday night into Tuesday morning, and this will set the stage for prime radiational cooling conditions. This will mean that you can expect another very cold morning on Tuesday. Clear skies will continue. Morning lows will range from around 18 in the coldest locations to the upper 20s even at the coast. There will likely be a heavy frost as well. You should take the necessary steps to prepare for hard freeze conditions. A more significant warm up commences Tuesday afternoon as the strong high quickly shifts Eastward. This will send back a return flow of Gulf air over the area. Afternoon highs will reach back into the 50s, but this is still below normal for this time of year. It should be a beautiful day with plenty of sunshine in place as the air mass begins to modify.
The remainder of this forecast period will feature much warmer temperatures thanks to a much more significant warming trend that will be in place thanks to the onshore flow. I am still not committed to warming things up quite as quickly as models indicate for the middle of the week. Morning lows on Wednesday will be above freezing across the area, but still on the chilly side generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area. It could be a similar morning to what we will see Friday morning with a large range of temperatures across the area as the Arctic air modifies and warm air intrudes. Skies should be clear for the most part, however, fog may become an issue once again thanks to the warm air advection regime. Ample amounts of sunshine are expected for Wednesday, but temperatures will trend above normal with readings reaching the mid 60s or so in the afternoon. The warming trend continues in earnest at the end of the forecast period on Thursday, and dense fog looks like an issue for then as the Gulf influence will be the dominant weather feature over the area. A long fetch onshore flow will develop ahead of a slowly developing storm system across the Great Plains and Pacific Northwest. This will keep us very mild, and temperatures will be above normal. Morning lows will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area, while afternoon highs will be well above normal reaching the low to mid 70s. It won't feel like Christmas at all by this time. No mention of rain is expected at this time due to lack of any large scale weather systems with a zonal flow in place, and also the affects of mid and upper level ridging. Given that the NAO is shown to continue its negative trend beyond this forecast period, I believe the warming trend next week will be short-lived as well. Another strong cold front should approach at the end of next week or early next weekend. It is still too early to speculate about the weather for Christmas.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 42/64 54/72 38/48 0 0 0 30 0 0
LFT 38/63 52/72 39/47 0 0 0 30 0 0
BPT 45/66 56/73 40/48 0 0 0 20 0 0
AEX 36/62 50/67 35/44 0 0 0 40 0 0
POE 37/62 51/66 35/45 0 0 0 40 0 0
ARA 36/63 53/72 40/48 0 0 0 30 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Clear & Not as Cold w/ Patchy Fog after Midnight. Low 42. Light SE wind.
Friday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Partly Cloudy & Warmer. High 64. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Dense Fog forming overnight. Much warmer. Low 54. SSE wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Areas of Dense Fog early. Fog dissipating by mid-morning with skies becoming Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. High 72. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Saturday Night...Becoming Mostly Clear, Windy, & Much Colder. Low 38. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chill readings in the 20s by morning.
Sunday...Sunny, & Windy, & Cold. High 48. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chills in the 30s throughout the day.
Friday 12/10/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 6
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 9
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 8
9p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 6
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
12-10-10
Low: 42
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
12-11-10
Low: 54
High: 72
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
12-12-10
Low: 38
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-20
W.C.: 25-35
Monday
12-13-10
Low: 26
High: 47
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 20-40
Tuesday
12-14-10
High: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5
Wednesday
12-15-10
Low: 37
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Thursday
12-16-10
Low: 53
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of rain.
Saturday Night...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.
Sunday...North winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12: 04a.m. 11:15a.m.
High: 3:20a.m. 8:13p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.91'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Low: 29
Normal Low: 44
Record Low: 24-2006
High: 54
Normal High: 64
Record High: 82-2007
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.19"
Normal Month to Date: 1.31"
Year to Date: 32.76"
Normal Year to Date: 53.90"
Record: 5.89"- 1967
Sensible Weather Observed:
Fog
Freezing Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 42
High: 70
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 34
High: 52
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 40
High: 68
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 6:58a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:13p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:28a.m.-5:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Monday December 13
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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