SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The Arctic air is gone. I'm sure our friends in the Mid Mississippi Valley would trade with us. The Arctic air has not fully retreated up that way yet, and they have dealt with light freezing rain and icy conditions all day, that's no fun for anyone. We won't endure anything quite like that. Instead, we have the good fortune of enjoying a period of unseasonably warm weather. This trend started today with highs reaching the lower 70s. The major bug-a-boo across the forecast area today was the strong winds. A strong onshore flow was experienced across the area due to a strong pressure differential that developed in between the retreating Arctic high and a developing surface low over the Red River Valley. This kept us in an area of increased mixing and a set up a proverbial balancing act of pressures. Wind gusts over 40 mph were common at times this afternoon. Ample amounts of low level moisture were in place, and created higher dew points and humidity values across the area. Skies were generally in the Partly to Mostly Cloudy range throughout the day. It was a dry day for the most part with a lack of lifting and dynamics over the area, and strong mid and upper level capping over the area. A few light showers exist tonight as the deeper moisture continues to stream over the area. The strong winds have abated as well. It will be unseasonably warm with low temperatures closer to what the normal highs ought to be for the middle of December, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s area wide. Fog could also become an issue tonight with deep low level moisture in place, especially in areas where showers occurred.
The unseasonable warmth will continue for Thursday as we await our next cold front. Models are now more strongly insistent on an earlier arriving cold front compared to the last forecast package. The atmospheric conditions will nearly be identical on Thursday to that of Wednesday. We can expect a continuation of Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies, breezy conditions, and warm temperatures. Highs should reach the mid 70s for most locations. It should be a dry day for the most part, but as the cold front currently oriented from W to E across the Red River Valley slides SE towards our area. This front will be approaching during the evening hours on Thursday, and this should help to enhance lifting across the area. However, the mid and upper levels will remain largely capped. Thus, only a small chance of showers is expected as the front slides through. No thunderstorms are expected with dynamics and instability nearly null and void across this forecast area. Clouds should lower and thicken through the day as the boundary makes good headway. Winds will be gusty at times over 20 mph out of the SW, but should not be nearly as strong as they were on Wednesday. WAA comes to an end Thursday night as the cold front slides into the coastal waters. CAA will take over as the night progresses. Cooler conditions will prevail as we head into Friday. Expect morning lows to range from the mid 40s to mid 50s across the area, depending on where you are in reference to the cold front's proximity.
Normally, you would expect conditions to improve in the wake of a cold front. However, this will not be the case this time. The cold front sags into the coastal waters, and begins to stall. Energy created via the Jet Stream should create cyclogenesis in the Western Gulf. This will cause a surge of moisture to ride up and over the cold front, and into the forecast area. This will produce a period of mostly light overrunning rains for Friday. The deepest moisture and strongest lift will remain over the coastal waters, and today's model runs suggest that the low will trek further South keeping the heavier rain further way from land. This should limit rainfall amounts across the area, and may also keep rain chances out of the likely category. The evolution of this advertised isentropic lift event appears to be faster meaning rain chances will be increased during the day on Friday whereas last night it appeared the best opportunity for rain would come in the Friday night time frame. Rainfall totals should range from 1/10 to 1/2 an inch across the area. These rains will be beneficial, but certainly not enough to alleviate the drought of 2010. We will remain in the cool sector of this Gulf system, so it will be a dreary and raw feeling day on Friday. High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 50s across the area, and across the northern portion of the forecast area where the colder air will be deeper it may not get out of the 40s. The rain should be intermittent, and will be possible at any time during the day Friday as the Gulf low progresses to the NE. Rain chances continue into Friday night as the low treks parallel to our coast before moving East of the Missisippi River into early Saturday morning. The cold front should temporarily stall over the coastal waters, but as the low lifts out the front will begin pushing further into the Gulf waters. Modest CAA will continue, and it will be on the chilly side with intermittent light rain and/or drizzle continuing for Friday night. Overnight lows should drop into the mid to upper 30s across the area. All rain chances come to an end as we head into Saturday.
A marked improvement is slated for the weekend. The period of overrunning comes to an end heading into Saturday, and it will be replaced with an area of Canadian high pressure. This will spell a nice but cold weekend across the area. Granted, it should not be as cold as the previous air mass was. It will undoubtedly feel like Christmas though. Skies should clear early Saturday. We could see a few lingering clouds after sunrise, but it should be sunny in all areas before noon. An offshore flow will keep cool air filtering in, and high temperatures should reach the lower to middle 50s. This is seasonably cool. A cold night is in store for Saturday night into Sunday with a light freeze expected across much of the area. The coast should escape freezing conditions this time around, but it will certainly still be in the frosty range down there as well. Lows should be right around 31-32 here along I-10. It is possible that hard freeze conditions may be met over the Northern extremities with readings in the mid 20s by Sunday morning. Winds will not be an issue for this time frame as the Canadian high pressure should reside right over the Bayou State. This weekend should be perfect for finishing up Christmas shopping or anything else you have planned outside. You will want to grab a coat on the way to church Sunday with the cold morning on tap. Plenty of sunshine is expected for Sunday with high pressure continuing to dominate. The air mass begins its usual modification process Sunday afternoon with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s, falling just short of normal for mid-late December. As for the Saints game, it will be cold. They play on the road at Baltimore against the Ravens and don't have the luxury of playing in a dome this week. Thankfully, no snow is expected, but it will be very cold (certainly colder than the Saints are used to playing in) with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to near freezing during the game. I think the Saints will prevail despite the cold weather and a tough Ravens squad.
Christmas Week 2010 should start off on a cold note with temperatures in the 30s once again for Monday morning. Clear skies will continue as the effects of high pressure remain in place. Air mass modification should preclude a light freeze for most of the area, but northern extremities could touch the freezing mark again at least briefly. Mid to upper 30s should suffice for the rest of us. Afternoon highs will be at or slightly above normal in the lower to middle 60s. A return flow sets up during the day as the high works Eastward, and our next cold front comes down the pipeline. Another surface low may also develop in the Great Plains as a strong trough is carved out by the always active Jet Stream. This will turn our winds around to off the Gulf, and slowly increase dew points and humidities across the area. Moisture increases with earnest for Monday night into Tuesday as the front moves into the forecast area. This front is still expected to come through rather uneventfully as upper level support and instability will be absent. No more than some isolated showers are expected as the front slides through during the day on Tuesday. Significantly warmer weather is temporarily expected for Tuesday morning in the pre-frontal environment. Minimums should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. It will turn cooler during the day. The timing of the front still supports CAA re-establishing itself during the day Tuesday with high temperatures a few ticks cooler than that of Monday back into the upper 50s to around 60. A progressively cooler pattern becomes established heading into Wednesday with a renewed NW flow aloft in place. High pressure will be in control in the wake of this front, and the cooler air should make it feel joyful for Christmas.Temperatures should be very close to normal for the latter portion of December with mid 30s to mid 40s for lows and highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area. The overall pattern suggests a deepening and digging trough across the Eastern 2/3 of the nation, and this could spell another round of much colder air in time for Christmas. It remain to be seen, but all indications are that Christmas 2010 will be on the cold side. It is still a bit premature to make any specific forecast for Christmas.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 60/74 48/52 36/53 10 10 20 40 30 0
LFT 59/74 49/54 37/52 10 10 20 40 30 0
BPT 62/75 47/53 35/55 10 10 20 40 30 0
AEX 56/70 44/48 33/48 10 10 20 30 20 0
POE 56/70 44/48 34/49 10 10 20 30 20 0
ARA 61/73 50/55 38/52 10 10 20 50 30 0
Tonight...Partly Cloudy. Unseasonably Warm. Low 60. South wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. High 74. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Turning Cooler. Low 48. SSW wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy & Much Cooler with a 40% chance of rain. High 52. NNE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers mainly before midnight. Low 36. North wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Becoming Sunny. Cool. High 53. North wind 10 mph.
Thursday 12/16/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 60
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 10
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 66
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 12
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 13
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 15
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Some Scattered Showers
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 14
9p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ a Chance of Showers
Temp: 60
Rain: 20%
Wind: W 18
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
12-16-10
Low: 60
High: 74
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Friday
12-17-10
Low: 48
High: 52
Rain: 40%
Wind: NNE 10-15
W.C.: 40s
Saturday
12-18-10
Low: 36
High: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: North 10
W.C.: 30-45
Sunday
12-19-10
Low: 31
High: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
Monday
12-20-10
Low: 37
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Tuesday
12-21-10
Winter Solstice
Low: 50
High: 64
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
Wednesday
12-22-10
Low: 41
High: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Thursday morning.*
Tonight...Southwest winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday...Southwest winds 20 knots and gusty decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.
Friday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers.
Saturday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 9:41a.m. 10:20p.m.
High: 1:20a.m. 5:50p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.69'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Low: 46
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 24-1914
High: 72
Normal High: 63
Record High: 81-1995
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.24"
Normal Month to Date: 2.15"
Year to Date: 32.81"
Normal Year to Date: 54.74"
Record: 4.38"- 1986
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 46
High: 65
Rain: 0.98"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 36
High: 60
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 38
High: 67
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Thursday: 7:02a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 5:15p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:32a.m.-5:45p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
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