*No video blog tonight.*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The Arctic air mass remains entrenched over our part of the world, and across much of the Eastern 2/3 of the nation for that matter. Temperatures didn't get quite as cold as originally forecasted last night due to the continued Northerly winds. However, tonight it is a different story. Winds have gone calm at all locations with the Arctic high pressure centered over the state. Hard freeze conditions will occur area wide with incredibly low dew points, clear skies, and calm winds in place. Expect Tuesday morning temperatures to range from 20-25 across the area. A hard freeze will likely occur all the way to the coast. Air mass modification begins in earnest after the very cold start to the day on Tuesday. Under full sunshine, temperatures will warm up into the mid 50s on average. The strong Arctic high pressure will shift Eastward, and the end result will be shifting winds. Our winds will begin to take on a Southerly component as the day wears on. This will help enhance the warm up, and also slowly bring back the humidity and raise dew points across the area. Tuesday will be another beautiful December day, but once again temperatures will be below the benchmark for the middle of December. This will be the last of the bitterly cold temperatures for a little while anyway as the warming trend is established. It is conceivable that some record lows may be reached for the date of December 14. This could occur at Lake Charles, Lafayette, Beaumont, and New Iberia. Alexandria and Fort Polk will likely not threaten records since those values are in the mid 10s for the date. Here's a brief aside...one of the best meteor showers of the year occurs, the Geminid meteor shower, occurs tonight and tomorrow night. Conditions will be perfect for viewing meteors after midnight, except for the fact that it will be very cold. If you are interested in viewing the meteor shower, the best time to do so will be between 3 and 6a.m.. You can potentially see over 30 meteors an hour. Look to the N and NE for the best viewing. Dress warm!
The warming trend ramps up in earnest Tuesday night as the Southerly flow intensifies. A warm front will be developing over the coastal waters, and this will enhance the WAA pattern. Clouds will begin to increase, and temperatures will be much warmer for the overnight period heading into Wednesday. There will be threat of freezing temperatures during this time frame thanks to the significantly modified air mass. Temperatures could actually be confused overnight, meaning it is possible that an increase in temperatures may occur due to the warm front. Temperatures almost always decrease during the overnight hours. Low temperatures for Wednesday morning should generally be in the 40s, some 20-25 degrees warmer than that of Tuesday morning. The lifting warm front may also help to induce a few showers across mainly the Southern portions of the area, but this will not be a big deal by any means. The Arctic blast will be a fast, fading memory by Wednesday. Much more humid conditions will be in place with the warm front lifting Northward through the forecast area. Generally Partly Cloudy skies are expected along with a slight chance for a few showers with deeper moisture over the area. Temperatures will trend towards above normal after the blow normal stretch. Highs will generally range from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area. The warmest air will be over SE Texas, while the coolest will be over Central Louisiana.
Deeper moisture remains in place into the latter half of the week as we await our next cold front. Moisture will be pooling over the area, and the high amounts of low-level moisture will keep a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Thursday. Fog may be an issue for Thursday morning with warm air advection in full effect across the entire area. Lows will be above normal as well with readings into the 50s across the area. Afternoon highs will climb back into the low to mid 70s at least temporarily. This will not be a major rain event because the mid and upper levels will remain capped. The best lift and dynamics ahead of this front will be displaced well to our NE. This next front will be of Pacific origin, and the air mass will not quite as cold. Forecast models show this front pushing into the forecast area by late afternoon Thursday, and into the coastal waters during the overnight hours. The front will be floundering as it makes it way through the forecast area, as it bumps into the ongoing zonal flow across our area. As this warming trend commences, we will transition from a NW flow to zonal. The atmospheric conditions will not be favorable for a widespread rain event, but rain chances will remain in the forecast in the post-frontal environment as moisture lingers over the area. The front will hover just offshore for a time with the continued zonal flow. CAA takes over Thursday night into Friday, and temperatures will begin trending downward once again. Morning lows for Friday will dip back into the 40s across the area with generally Cloudy skies and the chance for off and on showers.
The same synoptic set up remains in place for Friday as we round out this work week. The front will continue to fester in the nearshore waters, and moisture will overrun it keeping a chance for showers in the forecast. It should generally be showers and no thunderstorms due to stable air at the surface. It will be a cooler day on Friday with highs struggling to reach the 60 degree mark and an offshore flow at the surface. An embedded short wave will ride down the Jet Stream at weeks' end and approach our area Friday night. The upper level flow will shift back to a NW flow. CAA will intensify, and morning lows for Saturday should range from the mid to upper 30s across the area. A slight chance of rain will continue as the front remains stalled over the coastal waters, and the secondary disturbances emanates Eastward through the mean flow.
The slight chance for showers will carry over into early Saturday, before ending. The front will kick an extra boost and push further offshore thanks to the renewed NW flow. Skies will clear through the day, and temperatures will remain on the cool side. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the low to mid 50s across the area. The December weather roller coaster will continue. An offshore flow will continue to be present bringing in cooler air from snow covered ground to our North. As it stands, most of the weekend looks fantastic with high pressure establishing itself on Saturday. It will quite chilly across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning with clear skies and light winds. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 30s across the area. This is seasonably cold for this time of year. Sunday promises to be a beautiful day, so it looks awesome for any plans you may have after church. There will be plentiful sunshine, and it will be on the cool side after the cold start. Highs will reach the middle 50s. The delightful December weather will round out this forecast period. High pressure will be in control into next Monday, and temperatures will be bearable. Morning lows will be in the frosty range in the 30s, but afternoon highs should eclipse normal for this point in December. It should be a fantastic start to Christmas week. Another temporary warming trend is expected ahead of another strong cold front just beyond this forecast period. It is too early to determine if this next front will be one that sets us up for a cold Christmas, but the trend is there. We will have a more definitive answer about that in the coming days.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 24/54 45/68 56/74 0 0 10 20 20 20
LFT 23/54 44/68 55/74 0 0 10 20 20 20
BPT 27/57 48/70 58/75 0 0 10 20 20 20
AEX 20/55 38/66 52/75 0 0 10 20 20 20
POE 20/55 40/67 53/75 0 0 10 20 20 20
ARA 24/53 46/69 57/75 0 0 10 20 20 20
*Hard Freeze Warning in effect until 9a.m. Tuesday.*
Tonight...Clear and Very Cold w/ a Hard Freeze. Low 24. Calm wind.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 54. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Increasing Clouds & Much Warmer. Isolated showers possible. Low 45. SSE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 68. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Areas of dense fog possible after midnight. Low 56. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Areas of dense fog early, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Unseasonably warm. High 74. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday 12/13/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Very Cold
Temp: 24
Wind: Cam
W.C.: 24
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 32
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 3
W.C.: 30
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 47
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 7
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 49
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
12-14-10
Low: 24
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
W.C.: 20-30
Wednesday
12-15-10
High: 68
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
12-16-10
Low: 56
High 74
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-20
Friday
12-17-10
Low: 45
High: 60
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 10-20
Saturday
12-18-10
Low: 37
High: 52
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 30-40
Sunday
12-19-10
Low: 32
High: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
Monday
12-20-10
Low: 37
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10
W.C.: 35-40
...Marine Forecast...
An Arctic airmass is in place across the Gulf Coast and extends into the coastal waters. Strong high pressure in control tonight will slide Eastward on Tuesday. Winds and seas are light over the Gulf, but will slowly increase in the coming days as an onshore flow returns ahead of another cold front expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday. Scattered showers will develop and move Northward towards land from time to time beginning Wednesday.
onight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Tuesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday...South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday Night...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 4:26a.m. 4:45p.m.
High: 10:53a.m. 9:53p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.94'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, December 13, 2010
Low: 30
Normal Low: 44
Record Low: 18-1962
High: 53
Normal High: 64
Record High: 81-1933
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.24"
Normal Month to Date: 1.87"
Year to Date: 32.81"
Normal Year to Date: 54.46"
Record: 3.73"- 1956
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 57
High: 62
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 37
High: 68
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 40
High: 51
Rain: 0.78"
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:01a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:14p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:31a.m.-5:44p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tonight December 13
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Have a great Tuesday, Stay Warm, & God Bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment