Merry Christmas!!!
The forecast discussion is forthcoming. This is my last forecast package until after Christmas, so before we dive into the weather here's my Christmas message...
For Unto Us a Child Was Born...
Christmas is the most wonderful time of the year! It seems like 2010 was a really fast year! We have all dealt with our trials and tribulations over the year, but let us never forget there is always Someone to turn to. No matter what your situation there is one constant that has always been since it all began 2010 years ago! Christmas is a time when we celebrate being with our family and friends. It is a time to decorate our homes and offices with lights and trees, etc, and listen to the great music and watch movies associated with Christmas. The hustle and bustle of the Christmas season comes to an end on Christmas Eve, as all the shopping is done as we scrounge around town looking for the perfect gift for our loved ones. It is a time to pray, and attend church with our families, and reflect and be thankful for all of the blessings given us by God. The presents are nice, and the giving and receiving is nice, but we don't dare forget the real meaning of the season! For you see, 2010 years ago, we received the greatest Gift of all, the best and only Gift we'll ever need!
God loved us so much, the He gave us the gift of a Savior! His son, Jesus Christ...He gave us His one and only Son, so that whosoever believes in Him, will not perish, but will have eternal life! Jesus gave His life for us, to save us from eternal damnation! I can't think of a greater gift than knowing that Someone could love me that much, to die for me and take all of my transgressions away.
As we celebrate another Christmas, let us all remember that it isn't what we celebrate on this day, but Who. The Birth of Christ should be celebrated and lived inside each and everyone of us not only on Christmas, but on every day. I feel that in all the hustle and bustle of the Christmas season, that this, the most Significant reason, for the day is forgotten! This Christmas miracle that God made, is the single most significant story of all, and Christmas is the most significant day of the whole year! What/who would we be without God and without his Son, Jesus Christ? Do you know this Jesus I speak of? It seems that a minority is trying to control the majority these days...it's Happy Holidays instead of Merry Christmas! No, it's Merry Christmas, it's always has been, is now, and always will be! Yes, this is a free country, but no one can tell us believers that we can't say Merry Christmas anymore, or keep God first in our lives and in everything we do! They don't have to believe it, they have that right, but don't tell the Christians of this world that we can't express our faith and belief. To me, Happy Holidays means all the holidays...Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years, Hanukkah, etc. Merry Christmas! Keep Christ in Christmas!
I hope everyone truly does enjoy whatever you get for Christmas this year, and every year, but never forget the real reason for the season, and the fact that 2010 years ago on that first Christmas on a cold winter night in a small town called Bethlehem, you received the greatest Gift you'll ever need. As you gather with your family and friends this Christmas, don't forget to pray, and also remember those less fortunate than yourself. Also, lest not forget the brave men and women of the U.S. military, who fight for our freedoms everyday! Y'all truly are our other real heroes!
In closing, I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! I have so much to be thankful for, and I hope you do as well. May God's never-ending blessings be with all of you this Christmas, and forever. Happy Birthday to you, my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ! I hope 2011 brings everyone all the best, and that God continues to be at the forefront of your life. Thank you all for viewing the blog this year, and helping me getting it off the ground and running! Look for bigger and better things on this blog in 2011! I will have more forecasts posted before the end of the year, after a few days off for Christmas! Merry Christmas and God bless!
There is a video blog for this forecast. Look it just underneath this text. This will be the last video blog until after Christmas as well. Look for the next video blog posted on Monday, December 27. See the complete text form of the blog immediately following the video.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The warm spell from earlier in the week is a distant memory now as it should be as we head into Christmas. Any thought of warm weather is just that over the course of the next several days at least until the middle to latter half of next week. For those wanting cold weather for Christmas, our wish shall be fulfilled. Today was a seasonably cool day in the wake of the weak, dry cold front which pushed through on Wednesday. Clouds slowly decreased through the day, and the afternoon turned out quite nice for late December. Seasonably cold is the word for tonight as skies will be clear with a weak surface high in place. After highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s area wide this afternoon, temperatures will fall off nicely overnight reaching the mid to upper 30s by sunrise on our Christmas Eve. A light NE to E flow will be in place overnight due to the orientation of the surface high. The quiet weather will continue into Friday as this weak surface low quickly pushes Eastward. The day will dawn with Mostly Clear, but clouds will increase as the day wears on as the Southerly flow returns across the area. This will be in advance of a strong storm system that has wreaked havoc out West this week. This system is already currently in transit coming out the Desert SW and the Rockies. An associated trough will continue to sharpen and dig towards the area as well. Its attendant cold front will be approaching as we head into the evening hours on Friday. The low level flow returns with a vengeance, and quickly pumps in moist Gulf air over the area ahead of the front. Clouds will increase initially during the day, and forcing and instability will be on the rise as well by the evening hours. This spells a period of rain and a few thunderstorms across the region. We need the rain. The timing may not be the best for anyone traveling, but this is the cards we've been dealt. While most of the day will be dry, it will also seasonal again with highs climbing into the lower 60s after the chilly start.
The stage appears to be set for the first significant rainfall for the area this month. This whole thing will evolve quickly. The overall pattern will be shifting back to a NW flow from the present zonal flow across the area. Rain will begin to break out and expand in coverage and intensity late Friday evening into Christmas Eve night as the cold front approaches and convergence increases in the pre-frontal environment. The front works its way through the area between 6p.m. and midnight Christmas Eve. Rain will be likely in the overnight hours into Christmas morning. Rain could briefly be heavy as activity is enhanced due to a wave forming along the front in the Gulf (low). This low will help overspread moisture across the area. The surface low, cold front, and attendant upper level low will work in tandem to produce this rainy period. Santa Claus may need his windshield wipers and rain gear as he makes his way down from the Great White North. He may get here ahead of schedule on a strong tailwind. The brief onshore flow will be replaced by a strong offshore flow overnight as the sharp cold front slides into the coastal waters on Christmas morning. Rainfall amounts will generally be an inch or less, with amounts less than 1/2" expected North of I-10. The deepest moisture will be along and South of I-10 closer to the surface low, and in the area of greatest convergence. Mainly showers/rain are expected, but there will be enough instability in place that some thunderstorms may occur. There may be more instability in the post-frontal environment than in the pre-frontal environment such that there may be a greater risk of elevated convection than there will be of surface based convection. Either way, it's going to rain Christmas Eve into the early hours of Christmas Day. This will be a quick moving system, however, such that most of Christmas Day will be dry. CAA becomes re-established overnight as the front slides into the Gulf. Expect temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s across the area. You might want to take the rain gear with you if you are planning on heading out to church Christmas Eve. Though, it is likely that those attending midnight mass will endure a better risk of getting wet than those who go to evening services.
The rain will taper off and end on Christmas morning. It seems likely at this point that it will still be raining as the sun comes up, but we will be near the back edge of the rain by that time. The Gulf low will continue moving further East, and this will enhance the CAA over the area. This means that temperatures will have a hard time rising significantly on Christmas Day. It wouldn't surprise me at all if temperatures continue a slow fall in the wake of the surface low as we get deeper into the cold air. This cold air will be modified of course, but it will also be coming into the area from snow covered ground to our North. This helps keep the cold air well insulated, thus slowing down the modification process. Clouds will likely linger for much of the day on Christmas, but we should escape with dry weather for the majority of the day. Some decrease in clouds will be noted during the afternoon hours. We might begin to see a peak of sun or two by the time Christmas dinner is being served. Dry weather will be in place, so if you want to venture outside to break in your new toys and gifts it looks fine for that. Many of us may want to stay indoors be a cozy fire since it will remain on the cold side. The overcast conditions and CAA will result in a small diurnal range for or Christmas Day with highs likely not breaching the 50 degree mark. I am undercutting guidance as I feel it just doesn't handle this atmospheric set up very well. It will feel even colder due to gusty North winds in place thanks to the departing low and building high. A chance of rain is maintained in the morning hours tapering off from likely around sunrise to nothing by noon. High pressure will become the dominant weather feature for the remainder of Christmas weekend. A prolonged stretch of cold weather is in the offing.
High pressure takes full effect by the end of the day Christmas Day, and skies be clear over the entire area. High pressure will still be to our NW, so it will still be a bit breezy. Temperatures fall to near or just below freezing by Sunday morning. Upper 20s will be experienced in the coldest locations and near 30 to 32 will be realized here along I-10. The coast should avoid freezing temperatures to start the day on Sunday, but it will even be cold down there. Frost will not be an issue because of the wind. The strong offshore winds will create a wind chill. Expect these values to be in the 20s through the night. It will be a beautiful but cold second half of Christmas weekend. The Arctic high pressure will continue to move closer to the area. CAA will continue throughout the day on Sunday, and this process will try to offset the usual daytime heating processes. Expect maximum temperatures to be well below late December norms only reaching the mid to upper 40s across the area. It will remain quite cold despite nothing but sunshine. Winds decouple completely for Sunday night as the high pressure moves very close to the area. The stage will be set for an area wide freeze, with a hard freeze for the majority of the area. Expect temperatures to fall off into the mid 20s to near 30 across the area. Frost seems likely for Monday morning especially since winds will go nearly calm and clear skies will remain in place. The clear, cold, and quiet weather will take us into the final work days of the year. Monday will be full of sunshine but the noticeable nip in the air will reign supreme as well. Once again, high temperatures will remain below normal, but a subtle warming trend will begin at least for the afternoon hours with highs reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s, about 10 degrees or so below normal for late December.
CAA ceases on Monday, but the high pressure will remain in control. Super dry air will be in place, and low dew points and humidities will remain present. Clear skies and a very light offshore flow will be in place once again for Monday night, therefore, another freeze is expected on Tuesday morning. Tuesday morning could ultimately wind up being the coldest morning this go around. All areas should experience a freeze with hard freeze conditions possible even for the Lake Area. Mid 20s seem like a good call for the average low to start the day on Tuesday with lower 20s in the coldest locations. Upper 20s to near 30 are expected at the coast. Another beautiful late December day, perhaps the last cloud free day of 2010, is on tap for Tuesday. The strong area of high pressure will loosen its grip on SW Louisiana, and begin to slide Eastward into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley and the rest of the SE U.S. This will allow for the commencement of the return flow (Southerly winds) across our region. This will enhance the warm up. After the cold start on Tuesday expect temperatures to rebound quickly reaching the low to possibly middle 50s. The Arctic air will slowly begin to erode, however, it may take longer than some of the forecast models suggest as we get into the middle of next week. There is better agreement on when moisture will return to SW Louisiana.
Low level moisture will be the first thing to increase by Tuesday afternoon, and then clouds will follow suit by late in the day. Our next storm system will be developing by that time. Another Pacific storm system will be unraveling to our West, and at the same time additional Jet Stream energy will activate the old frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico. This front will begin to slowly trudge Northward heading into Wednesday. The atmospheric profile will become ideal for an overrunning situation overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. As the warm air lifts Northward it will initially ride up and over the slowly modifying cold air at the surface. This will moisten up the boundary layer and create an isentropic lift event. This could set the stage for a significant rain event in the waning days of the year. Rain chances will return to the forecast as early as Tuesday night and increase further on Wednesday when convergence increases. This rain will be a cold rain at first as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s by sunrise Wednesday. That is cold, but not cold enough for anything but rain even further inland. There will be a large plume of warm air that is lifted up and over this cold Arctic air. so the p-type will remain all liquid for all locations. It will be quite cold and raw with rain reaching the likely category by Wednesday. Some elevated convective activity is possible during the day Wednesday as the warm front lifts Northward. This front will move slowly, but further air mass modification will occur with highs topping out around 60, essentially back to normal. The warm front pulls inland late Wednesday, and much warmer and more humid weather returns as the warm sector envelopes the forecast area. All areas will be entrenched in warmer air by Thursday as the warm front lifts out of the forecast area. Rain chances will drop off a bit as we will between weather systems, but with plenty of deep low level moisture streaming into the area rain chances must be maintained through the end of the forecast period. Mostly Cloudy skies will prevail, and some patchy fog can't be ruled out by Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The temperature scheme will return to above normal with lows generally between 45 and 50 and highs approaching the 70 degree threshold. It is too early to speculate on how much rain will occur with this mid-week system, but it may shape up to be a significant rain event for our area in what will go down as one of the driest years and Decembers on record. We will hone in on this system with more specificity after Christmas. Looking toward New Years, the weather doesn't look all that promising for ringing in the New Year as it stands right now. Our next cold front is due in between New Years Eve and New Years Day morning. Timing issues are abundant at this stage of the game, but there is more than enough consistency at this point to suggest that it might be a rainy, even stormy end to 2010 and a stormy/wet beginning to 2011. This has the look of a severe weather potential, but again let's hone in on that with more specifics and clarity after Christmas. Enjoy Christmas first! Merry Christmas and Happy Birthday Jesus!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 37/63 44/47 30/48 0 0 80 40 0 0
LFT 36/63 45/48 29/48 0 0 80 40 0 0
BPT 39/65 46/50 31/49 0 0 80 30 0 0
AEX 32/62 38/45 26/47 0 0 80 40 0 0
POE 33/63 39/45 26/47 0 0 80 40 0 0
ARA 38/64 47/51 30/49 0 0 80 40 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Seasonably Cold. Low 37. Light NE wind.
Christmas Eve Day...Mostly Sunny early. Increasing Cloudiness through the day becoming Cloudy by late afternoon. High 63. East wind 10 mph.
Christmas Eve Night...Cloudy with rain likely along with a few thunderstorms. Rain becoming widespread by midnight. Windy. Low 44. SE wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 80%.
Christmas Day...Cloudy & Windy with a 40% chance of rain until around mid-morning. Skies clearing over the remainder of the day with skies becoming Sunny in the afternoon. Much colder. High 48. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Win chills in the 30s.
Christmas Night...Clear & Cold. Low 30. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Wind chills in the 20s.
Sunday...Sunny & Cold. High 48. North wind 10 mph.
Friday 12/24/10 Daily Planner
Christmas Eve
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 37
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
W.C. : 34
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 7
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 8
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: ESE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ some Rain developing
Temp: 59
Rain: 20%
Wind: SE 8
9p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ a Few Showers
Temp: 56
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
12-24-10
Christmas Eve
Low: 37
High: 63
Rain: 0% Day....80% Night
Wind: E 10
W.C.: 30-45
Saturday
12-25-10
Christmas Day
Low: 44
High: 47
Rain: 80% Before Sunrise....40% A.M.
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 30s
Sunday
12-26-10
Low: 30
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-40
Monday
12-27-10
Low: 27
High: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 5-10
W.C.: 20-40
Tuesday
12-28-10
Low: 25
High: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 10
W.C.: 20-40
Wednesday
12-29-10
Low: 37
High: 58
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
12-30-10
Low: 48
High: 66
Rain: 40%
Wind: S 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Christmas Eve Day...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Christmas Eve Night...Southeast winds around 10 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening...then showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
Christmas Day...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Christmas Night...North winds 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday...North winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Christmas Eve Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:27a.m. 11:16p.m.
High: 2:12a.m. 6:24p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.77'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Low: 45
Normal Low: 42
Record Low: 11-1989
High: 63
Normal High: 62
Record High: 79-1931
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.24"
Normal Month to Date: 3.32"
Year to Date: 32.81"
Normal Year to Date: 55.91"
Record: 2.22"- 1945
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 60
High: 74
Rain: 0.02"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 31
High: 64
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 37
High: 52
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 7:06a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:19p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:36a.m.-5:49p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Full Moon- Wednesday January 19
Merry Christmas & God Bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment