New Year's Eve
Happy New Year
First, let's focus on how everything will evolve this evening. A thin line of showers has developed just West of this forecast area over East Texas. This is a harbinger of things to come. Only a few light, scattered showers are expected late this morning through early afternoon. As the strong front approaches the forecast area in the mid-late afternoon hours, surface based convergence will increase, and lifting will be in place along with decent dynamics and instability. Thus, showers and thunderstorms will develop across the forecast area. Additional Jet Stream energy that is forcing the cold air SE will tap into the available Gulf moisture, adding energy to the already volatile atmosphere. This will produce a risk of severe weather across the entire forecast area. However, the best dynamics and energy look to be setting up further to our N and E. There is currently a large tornado watch in effect for parts of Arkansas and Missouri. It may turn out to be a situation where the worst of the weather here in Louisiana organizes over SW Louisiana, and intensifies as it moves into Acadiana and SE Louisiana overnight. For this reason, I believe we are in the edge of the severe weather threat on this New Year's Eve. However, it is a borderline situation and we need to closely monitor the weather through the day. I know many of you will likely be away from your TV or any information source tonight as you celebrate the New Year. I urge you to keep some way of informing yourself, so you will be alert should any adverse weather conditions arise.
Rain should begin across the area in the mid to late afternoon hours with showers and thunderstorms into the likely category. The window of opportunity for severe weather looks to come in the evening hours until about midnight or so. Models are still differing just a bit on the exact timing of fropa, but since we are within 12-18 hours of said frontal passage, there is good consensus that the front will reach SW Louisiana between 9p.m. and midnight. The worst of the weather should occur along and just ahead of the front as all of the energy is displaced. This incredibly warm atmosphere will be dispersed, and we will transition to a much cooler and drier air mass after midnight. The greatest threat from severe weather around SW Louisiana should be damaging winds, but isolated tornadoes and large hail will be possible as well. The tornado threat will be higher from Acadiana and points Eastward. Heavy rainfall will also occur on top of what we experienced on Wednesday. Average rainfall amounts will be between 1-2" here locally, but some locations may see in excess of 3" once again. I will have some graphical representations shortly. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has highlighted all of SW Louisiana, and all of Louisiana for that matter in a slight risk for severe weather. Again, graphical representations to follow.
The severe weather threat will be greatest between 6p.m. and midnight just ahead of the Pacific front. If nothing else, expect strong thunderstorms across the area with gusty winds and heavy rain, lots of lightning and thunder. This will more than likely put a damper on your New Year's plans if they are indeed outside. The weather will slowly improve in the wake of the front overnight as we start 2011. There will more than likely be some post-frontal shower activity as moisture remains in the boundary layer until the secondary surge of colder air (Arctic front) moves through towards daybreak on New Year's Day. Highs today will easily crack the 70 degree mark, and ultimately top out in the mid 70s. It won't feel like New Year's at all. However, when you wake up on New Year's Day Saturday it will have a much different feel outside. Temperatures will drop substantially from the mid 70s this afternoon to the upper 40s to lower 50s by sunrise Saturday. If case you will be outside this evening, you can expect the humidity to remain high and unseasonable warmth to continue as well with temperatures generally running between 65 and 70 until frontal passage. We will polish off 2010 on a wet note, and that's a good thing, though you could argue that the timing is impeccable. We are still marred in an incredible drought by Louisiana standards despite the significant rainfall on Wednesday. We are still over 20" in debt on rainfall for this year. We won't make up the whole thing before the year ends, but since the ground is still relatively wet from the mid-week rain, there could be some localized street flooding in areas of heavier rain. Flooding is not a big concern, though, since we've been so dry. Is the rainy end to 2010 a microcosm of what to expect weather wise in 2011? Only God knows that.
I don't want to spend a whole lot of time discussing the remainder of the forecast period with the impinging storm system. However, I know you want to know how the remainder of New Year's weekend will turn out. Conditions improve during the day New Year's Day, but the chance of post-frontal rain will be in the forecast at least for the early morning hours. Clouds will take much the day to decrease, however as high pressure slowly builds in. CAA will be in full force, and temperatures won't move all that much. Expect maximums to top out at near normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most. You might not really notice, however, with the plethora of football games scheduled. Cold weather returns as the glancing blow from the Arctic air becomes the story by New Year's night into Sunday. Skies will clear and the area of high pressure will continue to push Southward. Expect temperatures to be back in the 30s for Sunday morning, however, it will likely remain above freezing, and there should not be a frost issue. Strong Northerly winds will subdue any frost potential. It will much colder because of the winds, however, with wind chills in the 20s to around freezing. Keep this in mind as you head off to church. Sunday will be the first beautiful day of 2011 with plentiful sunshine and pleasantly cool afternoon temps. Highs will be back below normal but as winds die down, the 50s won't feel bad at all. A rather sedate pattern takes us into the first work week of the new year with high pressure firmly in control. It will be a cold morning on Monday heading back to work or school. Temperatures will flirt with freezing, but a warm up will ensue beyond that point. It will remain seasonably cool Monday, and we'll start out with plenty of sunshine. Clouds will roll in as the day progresses. Rain chances come back quickly across the forecast area on Tuesday as an unsettled pattern develops for the remainder of the forecast period. A period of overrunning may develop, bringing off and on periods of rain to the area especially for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should moderate a bit, but remain about seasonal. I will discuss this with more specificity later on.
I better wrap this up due to time constraints, and being in severe weather mode. Check back later day for more. I will post one more time before heading off for my New Year's plans. I will also update this evening and tonight as necessary, so you can rest assured you will get all the weather information you need right here. There is no need for you to turn anywhere else. Be safe and have a Happy New Year!
Happy New Year & God bless!
-DM-
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