The blog returns. My apologies for lack of blog entries at the end of last week to start off the week this morning. I have been under the weather. I am finally back on my feet, but still got a bit of a cold. My voice is still a bit raspy, so there will be no video blog this entry. That should return next time. The full length text blog follow. Again, I apologize for the lack of blogs in recent days.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It's cold! The coldest air of the season has Louisiana in its grasp on this early December night. A strong area of high pressure with origins from the Arctic is firmly in control of our weather, and is moving closer to the state tonight setting the stage for good radiational cooling. The winds are decoupling, and skies are clear. A cool Monday afternoon will give way to a very cold start to Tuesday morning. For the first time this season, a widespread freeze is expected. A light freeze should even occur at the coast. A hard freeze will ultimately occur to the North of the I-10 corridor, and a pretty substantial freeze will be endured elsewhere. Most locations will fall off into the 20s by morning, with the coldest locations dropping as low as 23 or 24 by sunrise. Along I-10 upper 20s seem more logical. I have pegged 28 for the official low here at Lake Charles. Skies will generally be clear through the overnight hours, and into the day on Tuesday. However, with a continued NW flow aloft in place, an active Jet Stream will send occasional high clouds streaming across. These clouds should not be influential enough to keep the area from sustaining a killing freeze. As you would imagine, these temperatures are below normal for early December, but we will fall several degrees short of a record across all reporting sites. High pressure will remain in place for Tuesday, and continue to be the dominating force. It will remain on the cool side with highs reaching the mid 50s at best. This will be just a few degrees warmer than that of Monday. It will continue to feel like Christmas.
Tuesday will be a beautiful day with lots of sunshine, however, a change will occur late in the day. A more significant increase in high cloudiness will occur. The fast-paced NW flow aloft will send the cloudiness our way. An embedded upper level disturbance ejecting out of the Western U.S. tonight will quickly be approaching the forecast area. By Tuesday evening, it will be over the ARK-LA-TEX region, and clouds will be on the increase in earnest across this part of the world. As the system moves SE towards the area it will generate necessary lift to produce precipitation. The moisture generated by this upper level feature will be in the mid and upper levels. It will remain very dry at the surface. The surface dry air will largely limit the amount of rainfall expected with this system. Areas of mostly light rain will develop Tuesday night and extend into Wednesday morning as the upper level disturbance moves over the state. Moisture will be plentiful in the mid and upper levels, such that it saturates the air column. This means, that rainfall may become widespread over the area, but a lot of it will not reach the surface because of the low-level dry air. This will preclude the rainfall totals to generally 1/10 an inch or less. Temperatures will be chilly during this time frame as well with the modifying Arctic air mass in place. There will likely be a large difference between the temperature and the dew point at the onset of the light rain. This will lead to a good deal of virga (precipitation that doesn't reach the ground). This will create a process known as evaporative cooling. This means that the temperature will drop, and the dew point will rise to moisten up the air column. The already cool surface temperatures will continue to drop, and we face a borderline situation when any prospects of frozen precipitation are concerned.
Here comes the part of this forecast package, that can be way off or spot on. That is always the case when dealing with winter weather around here. It is likely that we will see off and on periods of rain in the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning time frame as the upper level disturbance and some Northern Gulf trofiness effect the region. The biggest question mark is will there be enough evaporative cooling and depth of cold air be enough to support any other form of precipitation. Model data has hinted as this idea off and on over the last week, and tonight models seem to be in better alignment suggesting that at least some portion of the forecast area will see a little excitement. As temperatures cool into the mid 30s overnight, the light rain will continue, and it may begin to mix in with some light sleet or light snow. All precipitation types will be light since the air mass will be very dry in nature. Should any frozen precip occur, absolutely no accumulation is expected across this forecast area. This is not the same set up we experienced last year that led to the significant accumulations. In the colder air, further North and East there into North Louisiana and over into Mississippi there could be minor accumulations. If we see any snow at all, it would be one of the earliest occurrences, but remember just last year when we recorded the earliest snowfall on record on December 4. This will be nothing like that, and again I stress this is a borderline situation. Most of us will just simply see a cold light rain. However, the most likely time to see any snowflakes would be between about 10p.m. Tuesday night and 6a.m. Wednesday morning. This will be a fast moving system, such that nearly all of the light precipitation will occur during the overnight hours before ending by sunrise Wednesday. The passing upper level disturbance will drop into the coastal waters after midnight. The extensive cloud cover and occasional light rain will preclude temperatures from falling as low heading into Wednesday. It should be in the low to mid 30s in most locations by sunrise Wednesday. The coldest locations North of I-10 will likely drop to right around freezing, and they will undoubtedly have the best chance of seeing a few snowflakes. At this point, I would surmise that if any snowflakes are seen in the Lake Area then we will be very lucky. Conditions quickly improve as we head into the middle of the week with high pressure re-establishing itself in the continued NW flow aloft.
Some clouds will linger through the first part of the day Wednesday as the upper level disturbance evacuates to the SE. Clearing will occur during the day, and it will turn out to be another beautiful early December day. It will remain on the cool side with the cold Canadian high in place. Highs should reach the mid 50s once again. I am undercutting guidance a few degrees for Wednesday because of the expectant early cloud cover, and the continued offshore flow that will be in place. Another cold night is in store for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It won't be quite as cold as tonight, however, given that the air mass will be modifying. Skies will be clear, and winds will be light, and certainly a light freeze will occur for most locations with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Thursday will be a beautiful day with the influence of high pressure remaining in place. However, it will be anchored at points further East as the progressive December pattern continues. This will generate an onshore flow during the day. Hence, a modest warming trend will begin. High temperatures will approach 60, give or take a degree. The benign weather pattern will take us into the end of this work week on Friday. A more significant warm up is slated for Friday as the onshore flow intensifies. Skies will generally remain Sunny. Humidity will creep back into the forecast area, but the deepest moisture will remain offshore, so it may still feel pretty pleasant outside. There will likely be some late night/early morning fog as is typically the case with a Southerly flow in place this time of year. The fog will burn off quickly after sunrise. Friday morning lows will be safely above freezing for the entire area. It will be seasonably cool with readings in the mid 40s. Afternoon highs will trend above normal reaching the mid to upper 60s across the board.
The weekend looks like it could be a case of deja vu. Saturday will be unseasonably warm with a well pronounced return in place. This seems like a morning primed for a dense fog across the area with the copious amounts of low-level moisture and deeper Gulf moisture in place. This will be re-assessed as the week goes on. Any fog should burn off and give way to Partly Cloudy skies by mid-morning. With the increase in moisture, comes a continued increase in temperatures as you would expect. A temporary mild regime is expected. Morning lows will be above the seasonal norm in the lower 50s, while afternoon highs follow suit and top out in the lower 70s. It should be a dry day as capping remains in place in the mid and upper levels, but another sharp cold front will be approaching the forecast area by late in the day into Saturday night. This lifting mechanism may help generate some shower activity as the warm air mass is displaced in the Saturday evening-Saturday night time frame. Dynamics will be lacking with this front, and tbe best forcing will be displaced from our area as well, so no severe weather is expected. We will barely have a chance of rain with the boundary as it stands right now. A strong onshore flow on Saturday will transition to a very strong offshore flow once again for Sunday in the wake of this Arctic front. Strong CAA will be in place, and temperatures will be several degrees colder for Sunday. Morning lows will be back into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area, and highs will struggle to reach the 50s for most. Skies will rapidly clear out in the wake of the front, so Sunday should be a beautiful day, but of course, cold. The Arctic high pressure builds towards the area Sunday night into Monday. CAA will continue, and clear skies will be in place. Another cery cold night is in store. This air mass may very well turn out to be the coldest air of the season so far. A hard freeze seems likely for Sunday night-Monday morning. Models already indicate lower 30s, and given than there is a trend towards climo at the end of the forecast cycle suggests that these numbers are too warm. That being said, I will undercut guidance and forecast mid to upper 20s for the area. Monday will feature wall to wall sunshine, but it will a deceptively beautiful day since it will be so cold. Highs will struggle to reach the mid to upper 40s across the area as we will be firmly entrenched into another Arctic air mass. Slow moderation is expected into the middle of next week. The overall trend the middle of December will be for colder and drier than normal weather. Stay tuned for more on the winter weather potential for Tuesday night.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 28/55 34/53 31/57 0 0 40 20 0 0
LFT 28/54 34/53 30/57 0 0 40 20 0 0
BPT 28/56 36/56 32/58 0 0 40 20 0 0
AEX 24/51 31/50 27/55 0 0 30 20 0 0
POE 24/51 31/50 27/55 0 0 30 20 0 0
ARA 29/54 35/54 31/58 0 0 50 20 0 0
*Freeze Warning in effect until 6a.m. Tuesday.*
Tonight...Clear and Cold. Low 28. Light North wind.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 55. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy and Cold with a 40% chance of light rain possibly mixed with light sleet or light snow after midnight. No accumulations of sleet or snow anywhere in the forecast area. Low 34. East wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain possibly mixed with light sleet or light snow early. Becoming Sunny as the day progresses. High 53. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Cold. Low 31. NE wind 5 mph.
Thursday...Sunny and Warmer. High 57. East wind 5-10 mph becoming SE around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday 12/7/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cold
Temp: 28
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2
W.C.: 26
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 37
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
W.C.: 34
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 7
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny w/ Some High Clouds
Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 47
Rain: 10%
Wind: NE 7
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Light Rain Developing
Temp: 41
Rain: 20%
Wind: NE 6
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
12-7-10
Pearl Harbor Day
Low: 28
High: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
W.C.: 20-30
Wednesday
12-8-10
Low: 34
High: 53
Rain: 20% AM
Wind: NE 10-15
W.C. 25-35
Thursday
12-9-10
Low: 31
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: E/SE 5-10
W.C.: 25-35
Friday
12-10-10
Low: 43
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
12-11-10
Low: 52
High: 72
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
12-12-10
Low: 40
High: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 30-40
Monday
12-13-10
Low: 26
High: 50
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-30
...Marine Forecast...
After strong winds and seas existed for a couple of days in the wake of the strong cold front on Saturday night, high pressure will build into the coastal waters on Tuesday creating much calmer conditions. However, this will be temporary as a strong NW flow aloft continues, and an upper level disturbance embedded in the flow translates SE into our forecast area by Tuesday night. This disturbance will engender Gulf cyclogenesis resulting in increasing winds and seas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cold rain will be likely as well as the low forms and migrates Eastward. Winds and seas will subside once again during the day Wednesday as high pressure builds into the coastal waters.
Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Tuesday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of rain in the morning.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 9:17a.m. 10:17p.m.
High: 1:16a.m. 6:06p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.97'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, November 6, 2010
Low: 34
Normal Low: 45
Record Low: 24-1950
High: 54
Normal High: 65
Record High: 81-1943
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00"
Normal Month to Date: 0.90"
Year to Date: 32.57"
Normal Year to Date: 53.49"
Record: 2.89"- 1969
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 34
High: 56
Rain: 0.10"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 31
High: 55
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 37
High: 51
Rain: 0.44"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:56a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:13p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:26a.m.-5:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Monday December 13
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM
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