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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...This weekend before Christmas has been quite a beauty. After some lingering clouds early Saturday, high pressure took over and controlled the weather for the balance of the weekend. Sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures were enjoyed by all. It was superb for all outdoor activities and last minute Christmas shopping. It was a frosty start to our Sunday morning with lows ranging from the upper 20s to upper 30s across the area. A light freeze was realized north of the I-10 corridor. High temperatures came out just short of the seasonable norms with readings in the mid to upper 50s both Saturday and Sunday across the entire area. Light winds prevailed thanks to the nice area of high pressure that controlled the weather along the Gulf coast. This high is in the process of sliding to the East of the Mississippi River tonight, and air mass modification via the usual low-level return flow is commencing tonight. It will remain clear and quiet across the area with no weather of consequence expected. Temperatures will be seasonably cool once again as we head into our Monday, with readings in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area. Some areas of patchy fog will be possible as well especially in areas where the return flow persists for a longer duration. The overall flow across the Gulf Coastal Plain is also in transition from a NW flow to a zonal flow. That will have an impact on our weather as we go through this Christmas week.
Benign weather is on tap for most of the week as far as rainfall is concerned. This overall pattern does not favor any significant rain events anytime soon. However, there will be day to day differences that need to be broken down one by one, so let's wax eloquent about that now. First, for Monday, another nice day is on tap. The warming trend will continue, and the low levels will continue to work towards a saturated state thanks to the return flow. After the seasonably cool start, temperatures will warm up and likely exceed the benchmark normal for the mid to latter portions of December. This means maximums will be in the middle 60s on average. It will feel rather pleasant as the deeper moisture still looms offshore. Some increase in clouds will be noted, but these mainly be of the high variety (cirrus). This cirrus shield will advance across the area out ahead of a storm system ejecting NE from the Western U.S. As deeper moisture creeps back into the area, some mid and low level cloudiness will develop as well, but overall Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies are expected for Monday. Fog may be more of an issue for the Monday night-Tuesday morning time frame as the low level moisture maxes out. The Gulf air will interact with the Pacific air mass over land, and thus set the stage for a round of dense fog across the area. Low temperatures will moderate into above normal levels reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s by the time the sun comes up on Tuesday.
The fog burns off by mid-morning Tuesday, and the associated low cloud deck will likely remain in place for much of the morning. A mix of sun and clouds is expected for the afternoon hours as mixing of the atmosphere increases allowing for the December sun to erode some of the cloud deck. The moisture in the lower levels will keep some of the stratus deck in check. At the same time, a weak Pacific cold front associated with the strong storm system out West will be approaching, but it will be losing most of its luster. The zonal flow will cause steady state weakening as the boundary slides into the region from the NW late in the day Tuesday. This will do very little to change the weather and/or temperatures across this forecast area. We will remain in a long fetch onshore flow keeping a surge of tropical moisture ongoing over the area. The general sun and cloud mix will continue with no mention of rainfall. High temperatures on Tuesday will not make it feel like Christmas at all. These values will be in the lower 70s. Temperatures will likely be very similar to that of Monday night-Tuesday morning for the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning time frame, though the fog issue may be more sequestered thanks to increased mixing. Partly Cloudy skies are expected with just a patchy nature to the fog while temperatures only fall off into the mid to upper 50s as the weak boundary slides into the area by first thing Wednesday morning.
The uncharacteristically warm and benign weather pattern will exist through Thursday before we see any significant changes. The general cloud and sun and mix will prevail along with the same onshore flow. Humidity values and dew points will remain on the high side by December standards. Afternoon highs each day will creep back into the lower threshold of the 70s. That is nearly 10 degrees above the normal for late December. A dry forecast will be maintained as no large scale weather systems will be present in the continued zonal flow, and the previous front washes out. The mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will remained capped as well. Very similar atmospheric conditions will exist for both Wednesday and Thursday, therefore, identical temperature schemes are expected. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy. Morning lows will reside in the mid to upper 50s once again for Thursday morning. The next cold front, a rather strong one, is expected to arrive just ahead of Santa Claus during the day on Christmas Eve Friday. This front will likely come through without much fanfare. There will be a chance for a few showers ahead of said frontal boundary Friday afternoon, but overall the atmospheric profile will be unsupportive of a significant rain event. The mid and upper levels will remain extremely capped with high pressure in place, and it will strictly based the surface based moisture combined with the lifting mechanism that may produce some shower activity. The upper air pattern will also transition back to a NW flow from the persistent zonal flow that we will experience for much of the week. Rain chances will likely be no more than 30% at their highest in the afternoon hours on Friday. The front is currently progged to venture into the forecast area before church services on Christmas Eve. It should be a swiftly moving entity, and enter the coastal waters by the evening hours to provide a nice tail wind for Santa Claus. A much, cooler and continued dry pattern will unfold in the wake of the front as CAA takes over. Temperatures will remain mild in the pre-frontal environment Friday with morning lows likely in the mid 50s and afternoon highs reaching the mid 60s, with increased cloud cover and the chance of showers.
That bring us to Christmas and Christmas weekend. After a period of mild weather, it appears we will get a nice gift just in time for Christmas with the return to much colder air across the Gulf Coast. CAA takes over in the wake of the Christmas Eve front, and clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures are expected for Christmas morning. High pressure will dominant the weather across Louisiana for the length of Christmas weekend. This should make the final weekend of 2010, and the all important Christmas weekend a nice one. Christmas Day looks sunny and cool as high pressure builds in. The morning lows will range from the mid 30s in the coldest locales to the mid 40s along the coast. The colder air will continue filtering in, and the coldest locations may ultimately flirt with freezing for Christmas morning. It is highly conceivable that models will keep trending cooler and cooler in the coming days. This will be one of the strongest fronts of the season so far, but maybe not quite as some of the previous ones back around the middle of the month. Lots of sunshine is expected for Christmas Day, so you can break in the new toys. High temperatures should reach the upper 40s to lower 50s, so there will be a noticeable nip in the air as there should be for Christmas. An area wide freeze looks likely for Sunday as strong high pressure nestles over Texas. Morning lows will drop into the 20s north of I-10, and to near 30 here along I-10 with mid 30s at the immediate coast. The CAA regime prevails for Sunday afternoon, and the noticeable nip will continue with highs likely falling short of the 50 degree threshold. The dry and chilly weather looks to continue in the days between Christmas and New Years, but models suggest another warm up closer to New Years before another bout of some colder weather just in time for New Years. Anything beyond Christmas weekend at this point is subject to change, and this is certainly not a forecast.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 39/65 56/70 57/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 37/64 54/71 56/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 41/66 61/72 59/73 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 35/63 52/69 55/68 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 36/64 53/70 56/69 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 38/64 55/70 60/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Not as Cold. Low 39. Light SE wind.
Monday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 64. SE wind 10 mph.
Monday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ Areas of Dense Fog after midnight. Low 56. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday...Areas of Fog early, becoming Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Unseasonably Warm. High 70. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 57. SSW wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 71. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Monday 12/20/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 39
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 2
W.C.: 38
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 7
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 8
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Low: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 9
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 7
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
12-20-10
Low: 39
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Tuesday
12-21-10
Winter Solstice
Low: 56
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
12-22-10
Low: 57
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Thursday
12-23-10
Low: 55
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Friday
12-24-10
Christmas Eve
Low: 53
High: 64
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-20
Saturday
12-25-10
Low: 37
High: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 25-40
Sunday
12-26-10
Boxing Day
Low: 30
High: 50
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-35
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Monday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Monday Night...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 7:39a.m. 8:18p.m.
High: 3:56p.m. 11:57p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.75'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Low: 34
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 22-1996
High: 59
Normal High: 63
Record High: 80-1919
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.24"
Normal Month to Date: 2.72"
Year to Date: 32.81"
Normal Year to Date: 55.31"
Record: 3.25"- 1914
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 42
High: 64
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 39
High: 56
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 27
High: 48
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Monday: 7:04a.m.
Sunset Monday: 5:17p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:34a.m.-5:47p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
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