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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was an unseasonably warm Thursday across the area with highs reaching the middle 70s as expected. The entire forecast laid out last night was right on track. The period of unseasonable warmth has come to an end tonight as our latest cold front has pushed through the area. Colder air is infiltrating the region once again as modified Canadian air moves in behind this front. Temperatures will readiate downward nicely overnight, and it will be on the cool side to start our Friday. It should be fairly seasonable with readings falling into the low to mid 40s across the region. The front came through with very little fanfare with virtually no weather. There were a few showers out ahead of the front located at random throughout the forecast area. Low clouds and some light fog were a more common occurrence in the pre-frontal environment. Clouds hold in place across most of the area here in the post-frontal environment. The cooler weather will continue to spill into the area tonight, and the front will make more headway into the coastal waters. Additional Jet Stream energy downstream over the Texas Hill Country and Rio Grande Valley will translate ESE into Friday. The cold front will slow down the further it pushes into the Gulf, and the additional Jet Stream energy will result in cyclogenesis to occur over the NW Gulf of Mexico. As all of this transpires, the clouds should hang tough, so don't expect much clearing despite the colder air mass taking over. A few pockets of drizzle or light rain are possible overnight as moisture remains trapped in the boundary layer given the expectant Gulf low. Rainfall amounts will be very light, and the rain that does develop will be very scattered in nature.
Rain chances increase only slightly for Friday as the weak Gulf low evacuates Eastward along the frontal boundary. This low will track far enough to our South, that it will limit rain amounts across the entire area, and many of us will stay dry. Only light rain and/or drizzle is expected where precipitation does occur. Most of us will just see cloudy skies, and endure a much cooler day temperature wise. CAA will only intensify as the trajectory of said surface low helps pull down colder air from the snow covered ground to our North. Temperatures will struggle to make it into the 50s, and I am only forecasting lower 50s at best. The biting Northerly winds will create wind chills in the 40s throughout the day. The majority of the rainfall will remain in the offshore waters where it will be quite nasty if you have marine interests. The surface low will generate higher winds and seas with possible strong thunderstorms deep down in the Gulf. This set up will favor only pockets of light rain, and no significant rain event is expected. Rainfall amounts will generally total about .10" or less. The highest likelihood of rain will be right along the coast since they will be in closer proximity to the surface low. Skies will remain overcast through the day, but rain chances should begin to decrease by the evening hours since the low will have passed on. It is highly conceivable that temperatures will continue to fall or begin to fall once again during the afternoon after a small rise with colder air on the back side of the low being pulled in. This cloudy and cold Friday will set the stage for a cold December weekend, but nothing out of the ordinary even for Louisiana standards. Conditions begin to make more of an improvement Friday night with high pressure starting to become the main weather feature. A slight chance of rain is maintained mainly before midnight as drier air works into the region. Clouds will also begin to clear overnight. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s across the area as CAA continues into Saturday morning.
This weekend before Christmas looks like a nice gift from Mother Nature. High pressure will be firmly entrenched by Saturday, and the last of the clouds should vacate the area early on. It will be on the chilly side, but that will make it feel like the holidays. Plenty of sunshine will be present on Saturday, and as CAA continues high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle 50s. This should be amassed briefly during the peak heating hours between 1-4p.m. A cold night is in the offing for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Clear skies and nearly calm winds over the area thanks to Canadian high pressure right over the area will result in very productive radiational cooling for the overnight hours. Morning lows by Sunday will range from the mid 20s in the coldest locations to the mid 30s at the coast. All areas from the I-10 corridor Northward should experience at least a light freeze. Only an hour or two of sub-freezing temperatures is expected for the Lake Area as well as Lafayette and Beaumont. Temperatures should be in the 31-32 range in the previously mentioned locations. Frost will be a likely entity for Sunday morning, and you will want to protect your pets and plants once again Pipe protection should not be an issue this go around. Great weather will continue for Sunday after the cold start. A coat or jacket will be required as you make your way to church Sunday, but any plans you may have afterwards, be it, Christmas shopping or just taking a walk outside, it looks superb. Don't forget Saints football at noon. They will be on the road in Baltimore, and it will be very cold there. Thankfully, no snow is expected. Game time temperatures should be around 30 degrees with a wind chill closer to 20 or so. The Saints will overcome the cold weather and a tough Ravens squad for a crucial victory as the season winds down. Ultimately, Sunday's highs should fall short of the December norms reaching the mid to upper 50s with the high pressure still the dominating weather feature around these parts.
Air mass modification ensues Sunday night as CAA ceases. The clear skies will remain in place, and it will still be cold, but freezing temperatures will be not realized. The average low heading into the final work week before Christmas should start out in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The modification process will be helped along by the return of a Gulf flow thanks to the orientation of the surface high to our East. Low level moisture will increase slowly but surely into Monday. It will remain dry with no large scale weather system within range just yet. The warming trend continues Monday with generally a sun and cloud mix across the area. Higher humidity values and dew points will return. This time the warm up will not be quite as substantial as the previous one. Monday will essentially be classified as a normal December day. Afternoon highs should generally be in the middle 60s. That is indeed normal for the last full day of fall in SW Louisiana.
The next storm system will be in development upstream at this same time. A digging trough will be sharpening and sending its attendant cold front towards the SE. This front will affect our region on Tuesday. The warming trend will continue until frontal passage. Substantial warming is expected ahead of the front Tuesday as a zone of increased subsidence its established over the area. This front will work into the region during the afternoon, but it will not make much ado about our weather. While plenty of low-level moisture in place, you would think there would be a significant chance for showers and thunderstorms, but you have to factor in the instability values and amount of dynamics. These will nearly be non-existent, and this front will likely slide through in the very similar manner to that of tonight's. Don't get used to the warm temperatures on Tuesday either. Morning lows will climb back into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 70s with a general cloud and sun mix yet again. Clouds will likely increase later in the day as said cold front approaches, but again no more than just a few showers is expected in the Tuesday evening-Tuesday night time frame as the front slides through. There are still the usual timing issues that exist with weather systems this far out, and I will fine tune the timing in further forecasts. As it stands right now, this front will likely slide through between 6p.m. and 10p.m. across the area.
CAA will once again return in the wake of the front during the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. This front should usher in a Pacific air mass, and this will result in temperatures at or slightly below the late December norms. The front will nearly simultaneously coincide with the official arrival of winter. Tuesday is the day known as the Winter Solstice or the First Day of Winter. It is the shortest day of the year with respect to amount of daylight. Skies should clear out rather quickly in the wake of this Pacific front, and clear skies and cooler temperatures are on tap for the mid week period through the end of this forecast period. Morning lows for Wednesday will generally be in the lower to middle 40s across the area. CAA will be in place through the day on Wednesday with high pressure located to our NW. Highs should fall just short of normal reaching the middle to upper 50s or so. Nice weather prevails into Thursday with the Pacific high pressure in place. It will be a seasonably cool morning with lows down into the mid to upper 30s, while afternoon highs modify slightly to around 60. This will be pleasant weather for our area. Christmas is just beyond the cusp of this forecast period now, and the early projections are that a rather strong front will slide through the area on Christmas Eve without any chance of rain. This should set the stage for an unseasonably cold, but not bitterly cold Christmas. This still remains to be seen, and any definitive forecast for Christmas is still a few days away.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 45/50 35/54 32/56 20 30 20 0 0 0
LFT 47/52 36/53 32/56 20 30 20 0 0 0
BPT 46/51 35/56 32/58 20 30 20 0 0 0
AEX 40/48 32/50 26/54 20 20 10 0 0 0
POE 41/48 32/51 26/54 20 20 10 0 0 0
ARA 50/55 38/54 33/57 20 30 20 0 0 0
Tonight...Cloudy and Cooler with a 20% chance of rain. Low 45. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Cloudy & Cool with a 30% chance of rain. High 50. NNE wind 10-20 mph.
Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain mainly before midnight. Cold. Low 35. North 10 mph.
Saturday...Becoming Sunny. High 54. North 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear and Cold w/ a Light Freeze. Low 32. Calm wind.
Sunday...Sunny. High 56. East wind 5 mph.
Friday 12/17/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Rain: 20%
Wind: N 12
W.C.: 38
9a.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ Some Spotty Light Rain
Temp: 47
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNE 14
W.C.: 40
Noon
Weather: Cloudy w/ Patches of Light Rain
Temp: 49
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNE 15
W.C.: 43
3p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ Scattered Light Rain
Temp: 48
Rain: 30%
Wind: N 18
W.C.: 41
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ Patchy Light Rain/Drizzle
Temp: 45
Rain: 20%
Wind: N 16
W.C.: 38
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Intermittent Drizzle or Light Rain
Temp: 44
Rain: 20%
Wind: N 8
W.C.: 37
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
12-17-10
Low: 45
High: 50
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNE 10-20
W.C.: 40s
Saturday
12-18-10
Low: 35
High: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C. 30-40
Sunday
12-19-10
Low: 32
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
Monday
12-20-10
Low: 40
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Tuesday
12-21-10
Winter Solstice
Low: 53
High: 73
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Wednesday
12-22-10
Low: 41
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Thursday
12-23-10
Low: 37
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday...North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet.
Saturday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 5:55a.m. 7:24p.m.
High: 1:50p.m. 10:24p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.69'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Low: 60
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 22-1943
High: 76
Normal High: 63
Record High: 81-1971
Rainfall
Today: Trace
Month to Date: 0.24"
Normal Month to Date: 2.29"
Year to Date: 32.81"
Normal Year to Date: 54.88"
Record: 2.37"- 1959
Sensible Weather Observed:
Light Rain
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 44
High: 56
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 38
High: 48
Rain: 0.01"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 41
High: 73
Rain: 0.11"
Sunrise Friday: 7:03a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:15p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:33a.m.-5:45p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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