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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It feels a lot like Christmas! It has been a cold few days, and this stretch continues tonight. It was a cold and gray day for the most part on Wednesday. There were some peaks of sunshine in the wake of the early morning upper level disturbance and Gulf low that produced some light rain across the area. A few sleet pellets and snowflakes mixed in across portions of the area as the precip came to an end during the morning hours. Temperatures struggled to get out of the 40s thanks to the pesky, low stratus deck that remained in place. Where there was more sunshine, some places briefly snuck into the lower 50s. Skies are clearing this evening as a cold dome of high pressure re-establishes itself across the Gulf South. These clear skies and light Northerly winds will result in a night of maximum radiational cooling across the forecast area. Subfreezing temperatures will be met or exceeded across the entire area with perhaps the exception of the immediate coast. A Hard Freeze is expected for locations North of the I-10 corridor once again. This will be a freeze similar to that of Monday night/Tuesday morning. For the Lake Area proper, upper 20s seem logical, and a heavy frost is expected once again. The coldest locations will likely be as cold as 23 or 24 by the time the sun comes up on Thursday. Other than it being a night to run the heater or the fireplace and perhaps have a nice bowl or two of gumbo, the weather will be rather uneventful with the large anti-cyclone from Canada overhead. A moderating trend will begin after the cold morning on Thursday. Sunny skies are expected throughout the day, and it promises to be a gorgeous December day. It will remain cool even in the afternoon with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s across the area. A light onshore flow will commence during the day as the strong high pressure slides East of the Mississippi to engender a low-level Southerly flow across the area once again. Humidity values and dew points will remain low, so you may experience dry skin and static electricity once again. This is very common with these very cold air masses.
It will still be chilly Thursday night, but definitely not quite as cold as the onshore flow results in higher dew points, and increased humidity. It may also entail some patchy fog development by Friday morning, but fog should not be a major issue just yet. Skies will generally remain clear, and expect the overnight lows to range from the mid 30s in the coldest locales to the mid 40s at the coast. We can have a wide range of minimum temperatures right after the onset of a return flow thanks largely in part to the marine influence along the coast. The Arctic air is often slower to retreat in locations further removed from the coast. That will be the situation for Friday morning. The average lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area, but again there will likely be the aforementioned large range of minimums in place. Friday's weather won't be half bad at all. Any patchy fog will be distinguished by the sun rather quickly by 8 or 9a.m., and generally Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies will be in store throughout the day on Friday. The onshore flow will be more pronounced, and the humidity will be on the rise. Temperatures will follow suit, and maximums will ultimately end up closer to normal for the 2nd week of December. Normal this time of year is in the low to mid 60s across the area. The Southerly flow will intensify through the day as another strong December storm system heads our way. A higher potential for fog exists for the Friday night-Saturday morning time frame with deeper low level and boundary layer moisture and a warm air advection regime in place. Temperatures will likely not fall off all that much with the strengthening warm air regime over the area. The afternoon highs in the 60s will only fall into the mid 50s at best as the temperature meets up with the dew point. Lighter overnight winds will allow for fog formation as the warm Gulf air advects over the cooler land. Areas that don't see fog will likely see a low cloud deck form in the overnight hours. The onshore flow will prevail.
The weekend starts out unseasonably warm and humid with the fog possibilities. This warming trend will be short-lived, however. Saturday will be the last warm day for several days. Skies will be Partly to Mostly Cloudy during the day as moisture continues to increase. At the same time, a very sharp cold front will be in transit from NW to SE across the country. A sharp trough will be carved out by the active December Jet Stream, and this help to send the front barreling towards this forecast area. While low-level moisture will be significant, moisture in the mid and upper levels will remain limited thanks to the continued NW flow. Dynamics will be lacking, and forcing will be limited as well. It is solely the lifting mechanism that will lead to the development of shower and thunderstorm activity in the pre-frontal environment. Only scattered showers and storms are expected across our part of the world, but better dynamics and forcing further N and E will support the possibility of a few strong to severe storms and a more widespread rain event in that area. Things can certainly change, but as it stands right now rainfall amounts here ahead of the front should generally be 1/2" or less. The timing of said frontal boundary will occur in the Saturday afternoon-evening time frame across the forecast area. It should enter the NW corner shortly after noon, and cross into the coastal waters by 6p.m. A strong onshore flow will be in place ahead of the front.
The approaching front and amplifying trough combined with high pressure to our East will lead to the strong winds. Any shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly cease Saturday night in the post-frontal environment. Strong CAA will take over, and the afternoon highs in the lower 70s will give way to temperatures falling into the upper 30s by Sunday morning. Skies will quickly clear as a renewed area of high pressure becomes the dominant weather feature. The strong offshore flow will produce winds on the order of 20-25 mph with higher gusts at times Saturday night and Sunday morning, and wind chill readings will likely be in the 20s as you head out the door to church on Sunday. Sunday will be a deceptively beautiful day with plentiful sunshine, however, we will be in the midst of a big time Arctic blast. Temperatures will struggle to rise on Sunday even with full sunshine across the area. Highs should not be any warmer than the mid 40s. I am undercutting guidance, because while the model output shows the really cold air graphically, it doesn't reflect it numerically just yet because of the usual skew towards climo in the 4-7 day period. It is conceivable that temperatures may continue to fall on Sunday especially if any lingering low clouds are present. The wind chills will likely remain in the 20s through the day with the strong Blue Northers in place. Winds will diminish later in the day as the Arctic high pressure slides down the base of the Rockies to lessen the pressure gradient. Conditions will be in place for an area wide hard freeze Sunday night into Monday morning. This promises to be the coldest air of the season so far with lows falling into the low 20s in the coldest locations of the forecast area, mid 20s along I-10, and near 30 at the coast. Lighter winds and clear skies will be the main reasons for allowing the temperature to drop so fast. Hard freeze criteria is likely to be met, and you should take the necessary precautions for that.
The Arctic air mass will be firmly entrenched over the area on Monday, and it will be a very cold day. After the hard freeze, temperatures will slowly warm up during the day only reaching the mid to upper 40s at best, and I feel this may still be a tad warm. CAA will cease as we head into Monday night with the Arctic high pressure very near our vicinity. It has the potential to be a degree or two for Monday night into Tuesday morning, and hard freeze conditions will likely once again be met. Average lows should be in the 22-27 range, but it is conceivably possible that even some upper 10s will be experienced across the northern portions of the forecast area. Arctic high pressure slowly slides Eastward during the day Tuesday, and this will result in the beginning stages of a modification trend. After the very cold start, temperatures will warm up faster than that of Monday reaching into the 50s for the afternoon high. A return flow will commence as the strong Arctic front shifts Eastward in the continually progressive December pattern. Much milder December weather is slated for the end of the forecast period on Wednesday with an onshore flow prevalent across the region. The Arctic air mass will modify, though I don't believe it will modify as quickly as models currently indicate. I depict a warm up at mid-week, but not quite as substantial as many of the forecast models. An overall benign weather pattern will continue with no mention of rain expected with generally just Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies across the area. Morning lows will range from near freezing in the North to the mid 40s at the coast, and highs will return to the 60s, very close to normal for mid December. This more pronounced warming trend will carry over for the latter half of next week. The long range favors more shots of Arctic air with a negatively trending North Atlantic Oscillation shown through the next two weeks. It is still too early to make an early projection for Christmas, but the overall pattern suggests it might be cold.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 29/57 40/64 54/71 0 0 0 0 10 30
LFT 28/57 39/63 54/72 0 0 0 0 10 40
BPT 30/58 42/65 56/71 0 0 0 0 10 30
AEX 23/54 32/61 49/68 0 0 0 0 10 40
POE 24/54 34/62 50/68 0 0 0 0 10 40
ARA 28/58 40/63 55/71 0 0 0 0 10 40
*Freeze Warning in effect until 9a.m. Thursday.*
Tonight...Clear and Cold w/ a Freeze. Low 29. Light NE wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 57. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear and Not as Cold. Low 40. Light SE wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 64. SSE wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with areas of Dense Fog possible after midnight. Much warmer. Low 54. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Areas of Dense Fog early, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Warm & Windy. High 71. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty becoming SSW at 20 mph and gusty in the afternoon.
Thursday 12/9/10 Daily Planner
6.am.
Weather: Clear & Cold
Temp: 29
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 41
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 4
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 50
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 7
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 52
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 7
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
12-9-10
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
Friday
12-10-10
Low: 40
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
12-11-10
Low: 54
High: 71
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20
Sunday
12-12-10
Low: 38
High: 47
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 20s
Monday
12-13-10
Low: 25
High: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-35
Tuesday
12-14-10
Low: 24
High: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
W.C.: 18-32 A.M.
Wednesday
12-15-10
Low: 37
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
W.C.: 30-40
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:35a.m.
High: 2:34a.m. 7:38p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.91'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Low: 36
Normal Low: 44
Record Low: 25-1910
High: 53
Normal High: 65
Record High: 82-1966
Rainfall
Today: 0.19"
Month to Date: 0.19"
Normal Month to Date: 1.17"
Year to Date: 32.76"
Normal Year to Date: 53.76"
Record: 3.75"- 1935
Sensible Weather Observed:
Rain
Light Rain
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 56
High: 75
Rain: 0.28"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 35
High: 53
Rain: 0.01"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 36
High: 66
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:57a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 5:13p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:27a.m.-5:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Monday December 13
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM
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