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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Today is the first day of winter, aka, the winter solstice. It feels more like the first day of spring across the forecast area. Temperatures were much above normal today, but this will be changing in the coming days. Afternoon highs reached the middle 70s, after morning lows near the 60 degree mark. Skies were generally Mostly Cloudy with a few Partly Cloudy intervals. The presence of a low cloud deck limited the amount of sunshine today. Low level moisture was abundant, hence the reason for the clouds. Some light fog occurred this morning, but the stage may be set for a dense fog episode late tonight into early Wednesday. A plethora of low-level moisture will exist as the area remains locked into a zonal flow. A large winter storm is ongoing to our West, and high pressure is in control to our East. We are in the middle of the proverbial sandwich. Skies will generally be Mostly Cloudy overnight and warm air will continue to advect into the region, thus setting the stage for areas of dense fog to form after midnight. Other than the fog, it will be a rather uneventful period weather wise. The mild temperatures will greet us Wednesday morning with readings generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area. A dry forecast is maintained for Wednesday despite the approach of a weakening cold front. Fog will be prevalent for the early to mid morning hours. The fog will burn off as atmospheric mixing takes effect once the sun comes up. Winds will remain quite strong as well with the approach of said frontal boundary. This front will slowly approach the area during the day Wednesday reaching the I-10 corridor during the afternoon hours. Despite deep tropical moisture in place at the surface, no rainfall is expected in the pre-frontal environment. Dynamics and instability will be nearly non-existent. The weakening front will play in role in that. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies will prevail through the day. Afternoon highs will have a wide range across the area. Readings will range from the mid 60s across the North where the front will pass first, to the mid 70s towards the coast where frontal passage will occur last. The deep onshore flow will be replaced by a modest offshore flow during the afternoon hours.
Cooler air filters into the region in the wake of the weakening Pacific front Wednesday evening. The front will slowly push into the coastal waters, and eventually decay overnight. Moisture will remained trapped in the boundary layer leaving a cloud deck in place across much of the area. Clouds will thin out some over the Northern portion of the area where the cold air will be deeper. Cooler and drier air will become the dominant weather features for the overnight hours into Thursday. The offshore flow should preclude any fog development. Morning lows for Thursday will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s across the area. Afternoon maximums will generally be in the low to mid 60s. Essentially, this front will cool us back down to seasonable levels at least for the afternoon.
The cooler and drier air will persist into Christmas Eve on Friday, but an onshore flow will return during the day as we await the next much stronger front. All will be quiet to start the day on Christmas Eve, and with Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies in place morning lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s over the area. The cold front that we will be awaiting has Canadian origins and will be driven towards our area in response to a large trough that is currently digging across the U.S. and producing record snowfall out West. This front will be more energetic, and the Jet Stream will create more energy for it to work with as it dives towards the Northern Gulf coast. However, the best dynamics and lift will still bypass our region to the N and E. There will be enough upper level support for the development of some shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon on Christmas Eve. No severe weather is expected, and a widespread rain event is not going to unfold either. Rainfall totals will generally be .25" or less. This will not nearly be sufficient enough to alleviate the ongoing drought conditions, and the month of December will remain on pace to be the driest ever. High temperatures on Christmas Eve will be seasonal in the pre-frontal environment with readings generally in them middle 60s. A short-lived return flow will be present over the area. The cold front should quickly move through during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong CAA takes over in the wake of the front Friday night. We will trade in short sleeves for coats heading to Christmas church services as the colder air filters in.
CAA intensifies just in time for Santa Claus to visit SW Louisiana. He should have a nice tailwind. He may also need to bring his rain gear. Mostly scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity is expected to continue after dark Christmas Eve. There are strong indications from the forecast models that a wave (low) will develop along the front after it passes by the area, setting the stage for a brief period of overrunning. Moisture and warm air trapped in the boundary layer will keep the chance for rain ongoing at least through the evening hours. This should be a fast evolving system, with most of the weather well to our East. Rainfall should remain scattered at best as I said previously, and don't be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder or two with instability in the upper levels present. Conditions will improve drastically going into Christmas morning as Canadian high pressure begins to build into the region from the Rockies. This will keep CAA ongoing, and a strong offshore flow will prevail as well. Skies will slowly clear going into Christmas Day. It will be nice to sit by the warm fire and open presents Christmas morning with the much colder air in place outside. Average temperatures will trend below normal once again after this period of above normal temperatures. Expect readings to range from the mid 30s towards Alexandria to the mid 40s around Intracoastal City. Upper 30s seem like a good call here along I-10, with a wind chill close to freezing around sunrise Christmas Day with the strong Northerly winds. Skies will clear completely as the day progresses, and the weather will be rather uneventful. Don't expect much of a warm up on Christmas Day with highs struggling to reach the 50 degree threshold as cold air advection continues. It will feel like Christmas ought to feel around these parts. No snow, of course. The cold weather will continue for the rest of Christmas weekend. Freezing temperatures will return for Sunday morning. A hard freeze is certainly possible North of I-10 with mid to upper 20s expected there. Temperatures close to 30 should suffice for the corridor from Beaumont to Lafayette. Models have gradually been trending colder over the last few runs, and it is my opinion that they will continue to do so. It is possible that models are underestimating the amount of cold air that is poised to spill Southward, and they also don't take into account snow covered ground. Sunday will be a beautiful day, but it will be cold even in the afternoon with highs not cracking 50 in many locales. Winds will slacken during the day as the strong high pressure ridge moves closer to SW Louisiana.
This latest cold spell will carry over into the final week of 2010. Cold temperatures are expected both Monday and Tuesday mornings with additional freezing expected. Monday morning may ultimately turn out to be the coldest morning with several hours of sub-freezing temperatures on tap. A hard freeze is possible down to the I-10 corridor, and freezing temperatures may be realized all the way to the coast as the cold Canadian high nestles right over the forecast area. Upper 20s are expected as it stands right now, but again models keep trending colder, so further revisions are possible. Max temperatures will remain well below normal as well with highs barely cracking the 50s even with plentiful sunshine expected. The strong high pressure will only slowly evacuate Eastward, setting the stage for another very cold morning on Tuesday at the end of the this forecast period. Another light freeze is anticipated. Depending on the exact timing and movement of the strong high pressure, some fog is possible first thing Tuesday. It all hinges on when the return flow sets up over the area. Clouds will begin to increase during the day Tuesday as the return flow sets up bringing back low level moisture and raising humidity levels. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs approaching normal around 60. Another storm system will be advancing across the country in the established NW flow. This should affect our area just beyond this forecast period, and before the end of the year. This should bring us a chance of rain around next Wednesday/Thursday. It is far too early to commit to any specific time line or say if this will be a widespread rain event. It is likely that we will have one last front before the end of the year. A pattern favorable for more cold weather may be in the cards as we head into 2011, but this is still out of range of this forecast period.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 60/72 48/61 44/65 0 0 0 0 0 30
LFT 60/72 47/62 43/64 0 0 0 0 0 30
BPT 62/73 49/63 45/66 0 0 0 0 0 30
AEX 58/66 44/58 40/61 0 0 0 0 0 30
POE 58/66 44/58 40/61 0 0 0 0 0 30
ARA 61/72 50/63 45/65 0 0 0 0 0 30
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Fog developing after midnight. Low 60. South wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Areas of Fog early, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy. High 72. SW wind 10 mph in the morning, becoming NW around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Low 48. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. High 61. NE wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 44. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Christmas Eve...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 65. East wind 5-10 mph becoming SE at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday 12/22/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Fog
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 8
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 11
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 11
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 10
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 10
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 9
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
12-22-10
Low: 60
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10
Thursday
12-23-10
Low: 48
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
Friday
12-24-10
Christmas Eve
High: 65
Rain: 30%
Wind: E/SE 10-15
Saturday
12-25-10
Christmas Day
Low: 37
High: 49
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 30-45
Sunday
12-26-10
Boxing Day
Low: 30
High: 47
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
W.C.: 25-40
Monday
12-27-10
Low: 27
High: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
Tuesday
12-28-10
Low: 30
High: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 5-10
W.C.: 25-45
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Patchy fog late in the evening...then areas of fog after midnight.
Wednesday...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog until late afternoon...then becoming patchy.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Patchy fog.
Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 8:58a.m. 9:31p.m.
High: 12:36a.m. 5:14p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.67'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Low: 64
Normal Low: 42
Record Low: 22-1901
High: 74
Normal High: 62
Record High: 78-1998
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.24"
Normal Month to Date: 3.02"
Year to Date: 32.81"
Normal Year to Date: 55.61"
Record: 4.45"- 1923
Sensible Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 43
High: 66
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 36
High: 54
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 33
High: 52
Rain: 0.14"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:05a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:18p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:35a.m.-5:48p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tonight December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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