SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The Arctic air mass is retreating, and will be displaced with much warmer for the next couple of days. After, a chilly day with highs right in the forecasted zone of the low to mid 50s across the area, the transition has already begun tonight with a return flow of Gulf air streaming in over the area. This is in response to the strong Arctic high shifting Eastward. It is currently oriented over the SE U.S. The cold mornings of the past few days will become a distant memory as we head into the middle of the week. There will no threat of freezing temperatures across the forecast area tonight. Dew points and humidity values are increasing in response to the return flow. At the same time, warm frontogenesis is occurring over the coastal waters. This warm front will begin lifting Northward overnight, and temperatures may actually begin to rise after midnight in a WAA pattern. Clouds began to increase across much of the area this afternoon, and continue to do so tonight with a plume of generally stratocumulus clouds streaming overhead. A few light showers are possible towards morning as the warm front lifts North. I put the impetus on few, because while low level moisture will be increasing, the mid and upper levels remain fairly dry. Therefore, the mention of any shower activity will remain negligible and is not highlighted in this forecast. The atmospheric set up doesn't support much in the way of shower activity. Patchy fog is also a reasonable possibility towards sunrise. The temperature forecast tonight could turn out to be a crapshoot, and there will likely be a very wide range of minimum temperatures across the area. As mentioned, it is possible that temperatures will begin to rise overnight, meaning the low may occur right at midnight or shortly thereafter. The average temperature will be in the mid 40s officially, but some locations further N and E where the Arctic air will be last to leave could drop into the 30s before the WAA intensifies.
If you are not a cold weather fan, then you will be very happy over the next couple of days. The lifting warm front will usher in a period of above normal temperatures across this forecast area. A transition from a NW flow over the last few days to a more common zonal flow will be completed on Wednesday. We will become locked in between the retreating Arctic air mass, and our next storm system upstream over the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. A dry forecast is expected for Wednesday with limited mid and upper level moisture. All the moisture increase will be concentrated in the lower levels with the strengthening Southerly flow. The warm front will bring back the muggy air over the Gulf, and temperatures will transition from below normal to above normal just like that. High temperatures should be in the 65-70 range across the area. This will be some 15-20 degrees or so warmer than that of Tuesday. A remarkable turnaround for December, and yet another example of the old adage..."If you don't like the weather wait 5 minutes, it'll change." Generally a sun and cloud mix is to be expected. More of the same continues into Thursday with the warming trend continuing. High temperatures should peak in the mid 70s after morning lows closer to what the normal high should be this time of year. These values will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Some of y'all might want to break out the shorts and flip flops, but don't go putting your coat in mothballs. Remember, we're not even officially into winter yet. It should remain dry at least for the daylight hours on Thursday as essentially the same atmospheric conditions prevail. Fog could be an issue for Thursday morning as well, but this is due another assessment on Wednesday night's forecast package.
Conditions begin to change by Thursday night as our next cold front approaches. Rain chances will be very slight ahead of this front with very limited dynamics and instability. A few showers may develop in the pre-frontal environment due to lifting created by said front, but rain chances are in the slightest category at 20%. This front will more than likely come through on a dry note. The temporary warming trend will come to a halt Thursday night as the front drives into the coastal waters, and brings back a CAA regime over the forecast area. That being said, this front will not nearly be as cold as its predecessor with generally a Pacific air mas expected to filter in. Low temperatures for Friday morning should be in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area. Rain chances will increase in the post-frontal environment on Friday. The culprit will be the slowing of the advancing front, and additional Jet Stream energy downstream creating a discharge of energy allowing Gulf cyclogenesis to occur during the day. This will throw moisture up and over the cool, stable air a the surface. This will keep cloudy skies in the forecast, and result in a gradual increase in rain chances as the day progresses on Friday with the low ejecting NE along the stalling front. It will remain on the cool side with temperatures hard presses to reach the 60 degree mark. Rain chances may extend into the likely category by Friday night as the low rides NE and makes its closest approach to this forecast area. Embedded short waves ahead of the low will eject outward and create lift to produce rainfall across the area. This will be our shot at widespread rainfall during this forecast period. Rainfall amounts should generally be light with the best dynamics and deepest moisture remaining over the Gulf waters. A stiff offshore flow will ensue as well given the trajectory of the low. The low passes to our SE in the Gulf Friday night into Saturday morning, and allows for some colder air to filter into the region as the zonal flow transitions back to a NW flow aloft once again. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 30s across the area.
Conditions improve on Saturday. Rain chances may carry over into the morning hours, but as the low exits Eastward through the Gulf, and the stalled front resumes its SE motion, high pressure will become the driving force behind the weather around here. This will spell improvement of our weather with clearing skies as the day progresses. Exact timing of how this system will evolve will dictate when the rain shuts off. For now, a small rain chance is maintained for the morning hours on Saturday. Sunny skies should return Saturday afternoon. Undoubtedly, temperatures will struggle, and may not reach 50 in many areas due to the enhanced CAA thanks to the orientation of the synoptic scale features that will be present at said time. The re-established NW flow will tap into some of the colder air over the snow covered ground to our North. Most of the weekend is shaping up nicely as the high pressure takes over. It will be on the chilly side with temperatures down into the frosty category heading into Sunday morning. Some areas may endure a light freeze, but again it should not be as cold as it has been in previous days. Sunday could perhaps be the nicest day in the offing over the next 7 with nothing but sunshine on tap. It looks fantastic for anything you may have planned after church. Highs will remain below normal with readings generally in the lower to middle 50s across the area. An offshore flow will remain in tact with high pressure situated right over the area.
It's hard to believe next week is Christmas week, but lo and behold it is. The weather as we start Christmas week 2010 promises to be a gift. High pressure will be in control to start the week on Monday with clear skies and light winds. Morning lows on Monday will start out in the mid to upper 30s as air mass modification ensues. The high pressure will slide Eastward during the day, and the process of WAA will take over once again. High temperatures will top out near normal levels in the low to mid 60s. Another front is on tap at the end of the forecast period on Tuesday. However, despite the return flow this front appears to be moisture starved. It is expected to move through with little fanfare. Warming will be enhanced ahead of the front, and morning lows should creep back up to near normal or just above. The timing of the front as it stands right now should be in the late morning-early afternoon hours. This should result in slightly cooler afternoon highs as CAA takes over once again. An offshore flow will develop in the wake of the front. It is possible that this front will tap into some colder air over the snow covered ground to our North, but the models are flip-flopping on this notion. This could bring some modified Arctic air into the region in the days leading up to Christmas. It is still a bit early to produce accurate forecasts for Christmas, especially since models are all over the place at this point in time. However, a personal examination of the upper air patterns suggest that it may be a cold Christmas. The jury is still out on that, and it'll be later in the week before we can discuss the Christmas forecast with any specificity. Stay tuned!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 45/70 59/74 51/61 10 10 10 10 20 30
LFT 42/69 57/74 54/63 10 10 10 10 20 30
BPT 48/72 61/75 53/62 10 10 10 10 20 40
AEX 39/67 55/72 46/57 10 10 10 10 20 30
POE 40/67 55/73 46/57 10 10 10 10 20 30
ARA 43/69 60/74 55/64 10 10 10 10 20 30
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 70. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy with fog development possible after midnight. Low 59. SSE wind 5-10 ph.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm. High 74. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Turning Cooler late. Low 51. SSW wind 10-15 mph, becoming NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy & Cooler with a 30% chance of rain. High 61. NNW wind 15 mph and gusty.
Wednesday 12/15/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 57
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 14
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 13
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
12-15-10
Low: 45
High: 70
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
12-16-10
Low: 59
High: 74
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Friday
12-17-10
Low: 51
High: 61
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Saturday
12-18-10
Low: 37
High: 50
Rain: 20% AM
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 30-40
Sunday
12-19-10
Low: 32
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-35
Monday
12-20-10
Low: 36
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
W.C.: 35-45
Tuesday
12-21-10
Winter Solstice
Low: 45
High: 59
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Winds and seas will strengthen over the next couple of days as a warm front lifts Northward, and an onshore flow develops. The area will lie in between a retreating Arctic air mass to our NE, and a developing storm system downstream over the Pacific NW. The pressure gradient between the two synoptic features will cause an uptick in winds and seas. The active marine weather will continue through week's end as another cold front slides into the coastal waters, and cyclogenesis occurs along the front on Friday. Winds and seas will abate over the weekend as high pressure re-builds over the area. Small craft advisory criteria is likely to be met on Wednesday into Thursday.
*Small Craft Advisory in effect beginning at 6a.m. Wednesday through Thursday morning.*
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...South winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Wednesday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Thursday...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Friday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 4:56a.m. 5:52p.m.
High: 12:08a.m. 9:49p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.76'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Low: 30
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 24-1914
High: 57
Normal High: 64
Record High: 81-1971
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.24"
Normal Month to Date: 2.01"
Year to Date: 32.81"
Normal Year to Date: 54.60"
Record: 1.85"- 1974
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 57
High: 70
Rain: 1.39"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 49
High: 70
Rain: 1.15"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 38
High: 45
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:01a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:15p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:31a.m.-5:45p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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