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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Our latest warming trend has commenced in earnest. Mid and high level cloudiness increased during the day, and remains in place tonight in a continued WAA regime. The temperatures forecast was right on track today with readings starting in the upper 30s, and reaching the middle 60s during the afternoon. The clouds increased quicker than expected, limiting the amount of expected sunshine.The WAA regime will continue with a long fetch Southerly flow in place over the area. Humidity values and dew points will continue to increase. Fog will likely become an issue towards morning especially along and South of I-10 where the deepest low level moisture will be present. Low temperatures will be much warmer generally in the mid to upper 50s. It will be a calm and mild December night as we await our next weather maker later in the week. Of note tonight, there is also a total lunar eclipse. This is the first total lunar eclipse in a couple of years. The chances of viewing this eclipse across our area are limited due to expected cloud cover, but hopefully there will be some peaks during the viewing time. The time frame to see the eclipse will be from around 12:30a.m. until about 4a.m. Tuesday morning. Totality will last just over an hour from around 1:40a.m. to 2:53a.m. So, get up early if you want to take a chance at viewing it. I can't guarantee that we will see anything, but it is certainly worth a look if the clouds break for just long enough. Low clouds and fog will likely greet us as we walk out the door Tuesday morning. It won't feel much like the first day of winter at all.
The benign weather pattern rolls on through Thursday. Our next weather system is on the board, but it will only slowly evolve. Areas out West will continue to get hammered with snowfall of epic proportions in some areas. As for us, generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies will continue after any fog burns off. The unseasonable warmth will continue with highs reaching the middle 70s across the area. It will a bit breezy as well with the associated pressure differences between the recently departed high and the slow moving low to our NW. A zonal flow will become well established across the area. Fog formation will be likely once again for Tuesday night into Wednesday as winds decrease. All the while a very weak frontal boundary will be approaching from the NW late in this period. It will be slowing down as it pushes towards our area, and it will arrive in a weakened state. No weather is expected with this front despite a very rich tropical air mass in place over the area. Clouds and fog will be the prevailing weather more than likely. The unseasonable warmth will continue with morning lows around the 60 degree mark heading into Wednesday. The weak frontal boundary moves through and becomes diffuse over the area during the day Wednesday. Weak CAA will take over, and high temperatures will drop back a few degrees to around 70. That is still above normal for late December. The weak offshore flow will develop in the wake of this front. Clouds will remain in place as the front will not be enough to really scour out the low level moisture. Dry air will be in place for the mid and upper levels. The weak offshore flow should limit the potential for fog heading into Thursday morning, but expect a general mix and clouds and sun to persist for Thursday. Temperatures will cool slightly as the modest CAA helps pull down some colder air from our North. Morning lows for Thursday will generally be in the lower 50s, while afternoon highs will fall short of the 70 degree mark. It should be a fairly nice late December day, though it won't really feel like Christmas.
Bigger changes are in the offing by Christmas Eve. The one and only rain chance for this forecast period comes during this period. This comes as our next cold front of significance moves towards the area. A renewed NW flow aloft will be established across the area. A mix of sun and clouds is expected for Friday morning, and temperatures will start off above normal with lows generally in the 50s. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 60s under modest WAA. This front will likely be a mixture of Pacific and Canadian air. It will be one of the strongest fronts of the year thus far, but not surpass that of some earlier fronts this month. Cloudiness will increase, and moisture will pool ahead of this front. A brief period of return flow will also commence ahead of said boundary during the day on Christmas Eve. Moisture will be abundant in the lower levels, but the mid and upper levels will remain rather dry. It is the trigger mechanism itself and the abundant low-level moisture that will generate the chance for some shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. This pattern doesn't support a widespread rain event by any means. Rainfall totals will be limited due to the fast moving nature of the front, and due to the scattered nature of the activity. Expect rainfall totals to be on the average of 1/4" or less. Certainly, no severe weather is expected, and most of us will be lucky to even receive any rain as it has been that kind of year. We are on pace for the driest December on record in SW Louisiana. The most likely time frame to pick up some much needed rainfall will come from around noon to around 6p.m. The front should enter the NW corner of the forecast area by noon, and quickly slide into the coastal waters during the evening hours. The modest WAA will give way to strong CAA in the wake of the front on Christmas Eve just ahead of Old St. Nick. The strong cold front should provide Santa with a nice tail wind. Rain chances stand at about 40% now for the afternoon hours. Skies will quickly clear out Friday night. Expect overnight lows heading into Christmas morning to range from the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area. Areas closer to the coast will be warmer due to the usual marine influence. It will be closer to freezing across the North where the cold air will be deepest. A strong NNW flow will be in place. It should be noted, that there are still some timing issues with the cold front, but these will be worked out as Christmas Eve gets closer.
Christmas Day and all of Christmas weekend looks beautiful. It will be nice and cold as well. We'll call it seasonably cold. CAA will continue in earnest for Christmas Day with temperatures struggling to reach the 50s despite plentiful sunshine. It may be nice to sit and open presents by the fireplace since it will be fairly chilly outside once again. If we can't have snow, it should at least be cold, right? The chill in the air will continue as you sit down to enjoy Christmas dinner. Afternoon highs should only reach the low 50s at best with many locales only topping out in the mid to upper 40s. It will feel colder than that with the strong offshore flow in place. High pressure continues to ridge towards Louisiana as we head into Sunday, and this will set the stage for an area wide freeze for Christmas night into Sunday morning. Clear skies and light winds should set the stage for temperatures to fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s across the area. The immediate coast may escape the sub-freezing temperatures. Models are becoming more and more consistent on the idea of a light freeze for Sunday morning. This is reflected in the current forecast, and there is not really much change in the forecast philosophy from 24 hours ago. High pressure controls the weather for the second half of Christmas weekend. It will remain on the cool side for Sunday with highs barely surpassing 50 once again after the morning freeze. Many locations North of about Hwy. 190 should remain in the mid to upper 40s for highs. Winds will likely not be an issue Sunday as the strong area of high pressure essentially builds over head. Another cold night is in the offing as we start the final week of 2010. Light freeze conditions may be met or exceeded on Monday with clear skies and calm winds across SW Louisiana. The temperature scheme should be fairly uniform across the area with the lack of CAA. Upper 20s and lower 30s seem like a good bet. Plenty of sunshine will continue for Monday with temperatures beginning the moderation process as the high slides Eastward. Maximums will likely still fall short of normal with readings generally short of 60 degrees in the mid to upper 50s across the area. An onshore flow will commence late in the day to bring back a return flow of Gulf moisture. This will set the stage for air mass modification as we head towards the New Year. It is still far too early to be specific about any large scale weather systems beyond this forecast period.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 57/74 59/70 54/65 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 55/73 57/71 53/66 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 59/75 60/70 55/67 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 52/74 56/66 49/62 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 52/74 56/66 50/63 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 57. SSE wind 10 mph.
Tuesday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy. High 74. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with Patchy Fog. Low 59. South wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Patchy Fog early otherwise, Partly to Mostly Cloudy. High 70. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 54. East wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 65. NE wind 10 mph.
Tuesday 12/20/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog
Temp: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 13
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 7
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
12-21-10
Winter Solstice
Low: 57
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
12-22-10
Low: 59
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Thursday
12-23-10
Low: 54
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10-15
Friday
12-24-10
Christmas Eve
Low: 51
High: 68
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW 15-20
Saturday
12-25-10
Christmas Day
Low: 38
High: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 15-20
W.C.: 25-40
Sunday
12-26-10
Boxing Day
Low: 30
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
Monday
12-27-10
Low: 28
High: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tuesday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Patchy fog early in the morning.
Tuesday Night...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Patchy fog.
Wednesday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Patchy fog.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 8:18a.m. 8:50p.m.
High: 4:36p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.59'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, December 20, 2010
Low: 39
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 21-1996
High: 66
Normal High: 62
Record High: 79-2007
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.24"
Normal Month to Date: 2.87"
Year to Date: 32.81"
Normal Year to Date: 55.46"
Record: 2.00"- 1928
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 36
High: 58
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 33
High: 51
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 27
High: 53
Rain: Trace
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:05a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:17p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:35a.m.-5:47p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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