Click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text block.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Wednesday marked the 3rd straight day of shear spectacular September weather. It was another refreshing morning with lows in the mid 50s (56 at LCH....right on track!) An offshore flow continued with high pressure locked in place across the Western Gulf coast, and due to the position of Tropical Storm Nicole. The dry air and low humidity allowed for another day of a large diurnal range with high temperatures exceeding the forecast values of the mid 80s. The official high at LCH was 90, several degrees above normal for the end of September, however, with the extremely low humidity it still felt pleasant. Of course with high pressure in control, no sensible weather was observed. Another cool refreshing night and early morning is in the offing as temperatures bottom out in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area. Clear skies and nearly calm winds will greet you as you start your Thursday. Today's weather will be a continuance of the preceding days with plenty of sunshine in place, and low humidity holding firm once again. After the cool, refreshing start on this last day of September, high temperatures will be into the warm category once again with readings near the seasonal norm or just above. Mid 80s seem like a good fit on average, but certainly given the same atmospheric conditions as Wednesday some upper 80s will be possible.
A synoptic feature will come into play as we head into tonight, and it's in the form of another cold front. This cold front will move into the state this evening, and into our forecast area late tonight into Friday. It will do so with little fanfare. The Gulf of Mexico will remain totally closed for business with a continued offshore flow given the orientation of the current controlling high and the leftovers of Nicole. Overnight minimums will be a bit warmer as the current air mass continues to modify, and as we await a renewed fresh, cooler air mass heading into Friday. Expect lower 60s on average for your Friday morning minimum. The fropa will be dry and there likely won't even be any clouds during the period from tonight into Friday morning. We will continue to go deeper into drought conditions across the entire area, and as of Wednesday a barn ban has been issued for all of Calcasieu Parish. This extremely dry pattern will continue through this forecast period. That's the only gripe about this weather. Friday will begin a beautiful start to the month of October. A fresh round of CAA will take over on Friday in the wake of the cold front. NNW winds will increase a bit as the pressure gradient tightens over the area. Sunny, beautiful October skies are expected with highs in the lower to middle 80s, very close to the early October norm. No weather worries for the 5th week of Friday Night Football. In fact, it will be great weather this time around with comfortable temperatures and low humidity. Expect clear skies for all games around the state, and temperatures generally in the mid 70s at kickoff to the mid to upper 60s by the final whistle. CAA will continue for Friday night, and it will be a very nice and cool start to the first full weekend in October. Overnight lows heading into Saturday should be in the middle 50s for most.
There is no change in the forecast philosophy with this forecast package. The stage is set for great weather throughout the weekend. Sunny skies will be present both Saturday and Sunday with the string of pleasant temperatures continuing. High pressure will be the driving force behind the great weather, and pretty much the only synoptic feature on the weather map locally. Expect highs on Saturday to reach the lower 80s. Football weather will be just about perfect. LSU hosts Tennessee at 2:30p.m. in Tiger Stadium. Sunny skies with low humidity will continue with a kickoff temperature around 82, 81 or so at halftime, and 78 by game's end. A similar set up is expected for the McNeese game in Natchitoches as the Cowboys take on the Demons of Northwestern in their first Southland Conference tilt of the season. If you heading that way for the game, bring your sunglasses, and your blue and gold. Temperatures will be very similar with a kickoff temperature of 81...80 at halftime...77 at game's end. One of the coolest nights so far this season is slated for Saturday night into Sunday morning with readings in the lower to middle 50s along and North of I-10, and upper 50s at the coast. Sunday could potentially be even better than Saturday as temperatures cool a few more notches thanks to continued CAA and re-enforcing highs with origins from Canada. It will be great weather for any outdoor activities you may have planned or want to plan after church. Great weather is to be expected for the Saints game as well. Of course, the game itself is indoors as the Saints battle the Carolina Panthers at noon. The weather outside will be perfect for tailgating and for the drive over, and the drive home. High temperatures on Sunday will reach the upper 70s to around 80 on average across the forecast area.
The rest of the forecast next week Monday-Wednesday will feature more of the same with controlling high pressure and a continued offshore flow. A strong early October trough will continue with additional surges of cooler air filtering into the region. The end result will mean a continued reduction of temperatures, particularly for morning lows, through Tuesday. For the first time, since April, some 40s will be showing up in the forecast....gumbo, anyone? Afternoon highs could remain just shy of 80 degrees for a couple of days as well. Monday morning lows will average around 50, but there will be a chance for upper 40s even in Lake Charles then. It seems likely for Alexandria over to Fort Polk and down towards Oakdale and DeRidder. The best opportunity to see some 40s even in Lake Charles should come on Tuesday morning as high pressure will be situated very near the forecast area allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions Monday night. A slow modification of this Canadian air mass will begin at the end of the forecast period on Wednesday, but it will still be nice and cool with lows back into the lower 50s, while highs rebound to the lower 80s. Humidity values will remain low as any influence from the Gulf of Mexico will be out of the question. Wall to wall sunshine is expected through Wednesday. This will be an unbelievably nice stretch of weather for this forecast area. The drought continues, and there is no sign of any needed rainfall for the next 7-10 days. There are some signs of a pattern shift around mid October which may produce some rain, but this is still way too far out to be specific. The same long range models also indicate the possibility of temperatures getting into the chilly category with some models advertising readings as cool as the lower 40s...that's jacket weather! Again, that's a bit far off to speculate too much at this point, but I watch for trends. One thing is for sure, any tropical system's will be deflected safely away from SW Louisiana for the foreseeable future, and likely for the remainder of the season.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 59/87 61/85 55/82 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 60/88 62/85 56/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 61/88 63/85 57/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 55/85 57/83 52/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 55/85 57/83 52/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 62/87 64/86 57/84 0 0 0 0 0 0
Today...Sunny. High 87. North wind 5-10 mph.
Tonight...Clear. Low 61. Light North wind.
Friday...Continued Sunny. High 85. North wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 55. North wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 82. North wind 10 mph.
Thursday 9/30/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
9-30-10
Low: 59
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
10-1-10
Low: 61
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Saturday
10-2-10
Low: 55
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Sunday
10-3-10
Low: 53
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Monday
10-4-10
Low: 50
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Tuesday
10-5-10
Low: 48
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Wednesday
10-6-10
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
...Tropical Update...
As quick as T.D. 16 formed on Tuesday afternoon, it became Tropical Storm Nicole Wednesday morning. Nicole was never a classic looking tropical system. It was a very broad and elongated tropical entity, and was likely more subtropical in nature really. It has since merged with a frontal zone off the East coast of Florida, and become a large extratropical storm. Heavy rains will spread up the East coast over the next couple of days. The heaviest rains and strongest winds are far removed from the actual center of circulation. Nicole began the transition to extratropical almost as quickly as it was upgraded to a Tropical Storm Wednesday morning. The moisture plume from the former Nicole is so large that heavy rains are still occurring across portions of the Caribbean. The now undiscernable center of the former Nicole will accelerate to the NE and parallel the Eastern Seaboard through Friday. Gusty winds and heavy rain will occur into New England, and there is a plethora of flash flood watches from North Carolina into Upper New England. In short, we can close the book on the very short-lived Nicole.
Elsewhere, there are 2 tropical waves in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean this morning. Neither one is imminently close to developing, but given the favorable environmental conditions that are still present over the Atlantic, some slow development is possible into the weekend. Both of these systems are still East of the Lesser Antilles, and will continue moving to the WNW into the weekend. I would say that the trailing wave, will have the better opportunity for development, but the first wave will also have a chance, albeit briefly. The first wave may come up against some rather adverse environmental conditions over the weekend. No matter what transpires with either one of these tropical waves as we head into October, neither one will pose a threat to Louisiana, and most likely avoid the Gulf of Mexico altogether given the environmental set up around our part of the world. The chances for development of the aforementioned tropical waves over the next 24 hours is only in the 10-20% range. Just in case, you're interested, the next two names on the list are Otto and Paula.
No other areas of tropical cyclone formation are anticipated through Friday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 2:28p.m.
High: 3:40a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.82'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Low: 55
Normal Low: 65
Record Low: 45-1909
High: 90
Normal High: 85
Record High: 97-1953
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.92"
Normal Month to Date: 5.78"
Year to Date: 26.01"
Normal Year to Date: 43.87"
Record: 2.69"- 1943
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 62
High: 79
Rain: 0.29"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 70
High: 91
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 57
High: 85
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 7:06a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 6:59p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:36a.m.-7:29p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Friday October 1
New Moon- Thursday October 7
Last Quarter- Thursday October 14
Full Moon- Saturday October 23
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment