Thursday, September 9, 2010
This is a test run of the new video blogs. They will begin on a permanent basis next week. I believe I have finally gotten everything to load properly on here. Please watch it for some forecast details, and everything that you expect to see in the text block is still here as usual. Just scroll down. The video blogs will allow me to give you more up to the minute information when there is ongoing active weather across the area. Hopefully, one day soon I will be able to show more than just my ugly mug on camera. I would like to able to show you the graphics and what not, but I'm not a technology guru, so we'll take what we can get, right? If you have trouble hearing or seeing the video please let me know. Again, be sure to scroll down for the latest information.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Who Dat? Who Dat Say Dey Gonna Beat Dem Saints? As the new NFL season dawns tonight in a game featuring our world champion New Orleans Saints against Grandpa Favre and the Minnesota Vikings, there is a high level of excitement in the air. A capacity crowd will enjoy the air conditioned comfort of the Superdome. Geaux Saints! The defense of the Super Bowl title begins tonight in the Superdome! Who dat! Two dat! Score prediction...Saints 38 Vikings 21. (Actual score: Saints 14 Vikings 9). While it is football season, we are reminded that it is still summer in Louisiana upon venturing outside. This was realized on this very warm Thursday afternoon with standard summer weather across the area. Skies were generally Partly Cloudy with a few scattered storms at random locations across the forecast area. High temperatures reached the lower 90s as forecast. The forecast was right on cue as the ongoing battle between the remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Hermine to the West, and drier air associated with the typical Bermuda anti-cyclone to the East. Hermine's remains continue to spin in the Ozarks, and will affect portions of the Mid West and Tennessee Valley through the weekend. The high amounts of low-level moisture remain in place across the forecast area in the wake of Hermine, but the drier air continues to punch in at the mid and upper levels. The drier air will ultimately win out as we go through the course of this forecast period. Any convection from the heat of the day today will cease operations by sunset, and a calm and humid night is in store...perfect for cheering on the Saints! Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s under Mostly Clear skies.
Friday and the weekend...There is no change in the forecast philosophy suggested 24 hours ago. The ridging processes will only strengthen through the weekend. Daytime heating will result in just a few scattered storms during the peak heating hours. Partly Cloudy skies are expected each day Friday through Sunday with a similar temperature scheme as well. Morning lows in the mid 70s will give way to afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s on average. This means maximums will be running above normal for mid September. The second hottest summer on record in Louisiana doesn't want to relinquish its dominance just yet. The strengthening high will in large part be the culprit for the above normal temperatures. If you do manage to receive one of Mother Nature's natural air conditioners consider yourself mighty lucky. No doubt that any weekend plans will go off without a hitch, and the forecast for all football games will cooperate. It will be quite warm and humid, but there will be no mention of rain for the second week of Friday Night High School Football. McNeese and LSU are on the road Saturday. There could a stray shower or two during the afternoon in Columbia, MO but by game time at 6p.m. dry weather and pleasant temperatures in the 70s are expected. In contrast, there is a decent chance for some showers in Nashville as LSU battles Vanderbilt in their first SEC game of the season. This, as moisture from Hermine and an approaching cold front bring the threat for rain to the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures there will be in the 80s falling into the 70s during the game. At least we'll have the football to remind us that fall weather isn't too far away. Given the extensive amounts of low-level moisture remaining in place, heat index values will meet or exceed the 100 degree mark. A light onshore flow will prevail around the Western periphery of the Bermuda high.
Next week...Monday-Thursday...How can I wax eloquent about the same thing? There is no reason to believe the forecast will vary much from over the weekend. The synoptic set up will nearly be a carbon copy. Therefore, expect Partly Cloudy skies and a continuance of significant moisture in the lower levels. Ridging in the mid and upper levels will continue to dominate, but may break down a bit by mid-week. The pattern will continue to favor a slight chance of afternoon convection at some lucky locations across the region. Rain chances may undergo a slight uptick by mid-week as the ridge breaks down a smidge. At that time, a trough will be approaching from the North. There is still some speculation as to whether or not the associated front will make it through the entire forecast area. Models are a little more insistent on this idea today, but I am still not convinced that this will happen, because the upper level flow across the area will be parallel to this front. It could certainly get close enough to increase rain chances in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame, but at this point I will just kind of broad brush them and keep them at no greater than 30% at any point during the forecast period. If the front were to come through, then temperatures and dew points would drop enough to make a difference, similar to conditions experienced last weekend. No sign of the first real cold front just yet. The drought conditions will continue for the foreseeable future. As always, we will be watching the tropics.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 76/94 75/95 76/95 0 20 0 20 0 20
LFT 75/94 76/95 76/95 0 20 0 20 0 20
BPT 76/94 76/96 76/96 0 20 0 20 0 20
AEX 73/95 73/97 73/97 0 20 0 20 0 20
POE 74/95 74/96 74/97 0 20 0 20 0 20
ARA 76/92 76/93 75/93 0 20 0 20 0 20
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light SSE wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 94. SSE wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light SSE wind.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 95. South wind 10 mph.
Saturday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light South wind.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 95. South wind 10 mph.
Friday 9/10/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 7
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8
H.I.: 97
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 102
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 90
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8
H.I.: 100
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
9-10-10
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
9-11-10
9 Year Anniversary of 9-11 Terrorist Attacks
Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
9-12-10
Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Monday
9-13-10
Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
9-14-10
Low: 75
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-15-10
Low: 74
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 10- High
Thursday
9-16-10
Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 10- High
...Tropical Update...
Igor remains the only named storm at this time, but it is a tropical entity that is currently having some issues with survival. Igor has undergone a temporary weakening, and is currently classified as a Tropical Depression. Easterly shear has helped to weaken the storm on Thursday, but it is showing signs of better organization at this time. It should be on the verge of becoming a tropical storm once again. The environment out ahead of Igor over the open waters of the Atlantic is very favorable for development, however, Igor will need about 24 hours to move away from the current shear environment that it is in. This shear is being created by a secondary low pressure system that was located to the East of Igor. As Igor continues its nearly due Westward movement, it will move into the aforementioned favorable environment, and a period of steady state strengthening is expected to begin after about 24 hours. The strengthening trend will continue through the period. Igor will likely become a hurricane next week. It will have the potential to become the 3rd major hurricane of the season given the favorable environment over the Atlantic. Igor will be influenced greatly by a large Atlantic anti-cyclone to its North. The flow around this anti-cyclone will steer Igor on a nearly due Westward track for the next few days.
Late in the weekend or early next week, a weakness in the ridge over the Atlantic in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles may result in Igor making a turn to the WNW. From there, the eventual track of Igor is largely uncertain. Given the fact that the center has been reforming or relocating over the past 24 hours, it is hard for models to initialize an exact center. Therefore, the exact motion and track of Igor is a bit uncertain at this time. Igor is many days away from affecting anyone in the United States if it were to do so, but determining if this is going to happen is near impossible at this juncture. A track on a more due West course beyond this forecast period would take on a course close to the Northernmost Lesser Antilles likely as a formidable hurricane. The current projections have Igor bypassing these islands to the Northeast. We have plenty of time to watch what transpires with Igor.
Tropical Depression Igor Advisory
10p.m. CDT Thursday, September 9, 2010
...Igor Inches its Way Through the Eastern Atlantic...
Latitude: 15.4 N
Longitude: 28.0 W
This is about 245 miles W of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph w/ higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Igor will likely re-gain tropical storm status by the weekend.
Movement: WNW or 295 degrees @ 13 mph. A turn to the West with an increase in forward speed is expected within the next couple of days.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.65" or 1004 mb.
Elsewhere in the tropics, an area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues to persist in the vicinity of the Windward Islands. This area has a weak low pressure associated with it, and environmental conditions over the Caribbean Sea are conducive for development. Some development of this system is possible through the weekend, and it moves further into the warm waters of the Caribbean. It will move slowly off to the West for the next few days. Models have initialized on this system, but again it is hard to get a good feel for how the system will evolve without the presence of an actual classified system. It is in an area that is climatologically favored for development this time of year, so it needs to be watch closely. Again, any implications this system could have on any portion of the U.S. down the road remains to be seen. There is about a 40% chance of this system becoming a classified tropical entity by the weekend.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:43a.m. 11:21p.m.
High: 3:56a.m. 5:40p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
167.32'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Low: 75
Normal Low: 71
Record Low: 59-1918
High: 92
Normal High: 89
Record High: 99-1912
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.03"
Normal Month to Date: 1.81"
Year to Date: 25.12"
Normal Year to Date: 39.90"
Record: 2.12"- 1978
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 74
High: 86
Rain: 1.07"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 69
High: 93
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: 0.37"
Sunrise Friday: 6:55a.m.
Sunset Friday: 7:24p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:25a.m.-7:55p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Wednesday September 15
Full Moon- Thursday September 23
Last Quarter- Friday October 1
New Moon- Thursday October 7
Have a Great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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