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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Aaaah! Fall has finally arrived! This is very welcomed across the area after a long, miserable summer. The cold front moved into and cleared the entire forecast area Sunday with little fanfare as far as weather is concerned. Some shower and thunderstorm activity develop Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night as a pre-frontal trough moved through the area sparking off the convection during the afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts left a lot to be desired, however. Some activity developed ahead of the boundary on Sunday, but most of this was confined to the SE portion of the forecast area where deeper low level moisture was present. Skies were generally Partly Cloudy over the weekend, but as drier air filtered in behind the front Sunday clearing skies commenced across the forecast area. High temperatures easily reached the 90s again on Saturday, but with the drier and cooler air mass taking over Sunday maxes reached the upper 80s to near 90 on average. This will be the last of the 90s for awhile anyway, and will end the string of above normal temperatures. The cold front resides over the coastal waters early this morning, and clear and calm conditions exist over land. A CAA pattern is ongoing with a nice, refreshing offshore flow over the area. Temperatures will radiate nicely with the dry and cooler air mass continuing to strengthen. Temperatures will start out in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area this morning.
The weather pattern for this entire forecast period will be benign. Fantastic fall weather is in store with a persistent NW flow aloft and at the surface thanks to building high pressure in the wake of the first real cold front of the season. Monday will begin a string of Spectacular September weather with crystal clear skies, very low humidity, and pleasant temperatures. Temperatures will do a complete 180 from that of previous days. We will now trend below normal if you can believe that. Highs on Monday will range from the upper 70s across the Northern half of the area to the lower 80s for everyone else. The offshore flow will continue with Northerly breezes around 10-15 mph. Absolutely no chance of rain is in the offing. That's the only downside to this pattern, since we are still very much locked into drought conditions across the area. The drought will continue. The coolest weather since early May is expected for the Monday Night-Tuesday morning period. Overnight lows will have absolutely no trouble reaching the very comfortable 50s across the entire forecast area. Open the windows, turn off the A/C! Some lower 50s aren't out of the question for the typical colder spots across the forecast area, but the mid 50s should suffice here along the I-10 corridor, with readings around 60 near the coast.
High pressure at the surface and in the mid and upper levels will prevail Tuesday-Thursday keeping the same beautiful weather in place as we close out the month of September. Nary a cloud will be found with the low humidity in place and the continued offshore flow keeping the Gulf of Mexico closed for business. Similar temperatures are to be expected each day, with a slow modification expected through Thursday. Highs Tuesday should be in the lower 80s once again, with mid 80s in store for Wednesday and Thursday. Morning lows will remain the mid to upper 50s for Wednesday and Thursday morning with some 60s back into the mix by Thursday for some locations. The nice weather lasts through the end of the work week, but a slight change occurs Friday. Surface high pressure slides Eastward, and a light onshore flow returns. However, since the nice front Sunday sent the muggies packing way out into the Gulf, it will still be very pleasant with Sunny skies expected. Morning lows will be back into the lower 60s on average, while Friday afternoon's high reach the mid to upper 80s. The onshore flow will not last long, however. The advancing high pressure will allow another nice front to travel into the forecast area either late Friday or early Saturday. There will be limited moisture in place, so absolutely no rain is expected. There might be a brief period of Partly Cloudy skies at some point late Friday or Friday night as the boundary works its way into the area, but again no rain. The previous air mass won't have nearly enough time to modify to allow a big moisture return, and the lack of any dynamics will also keep rain chances out of the question. The estimated time of arrival for said frontal boundary is still up for debate, but it should generally be in the time frame laid out between Friday evening and Saturday morning. Overall, great weather continues as we start October, and perfect football weather is on tap for this week's High School Football games. Clear skies are expected with temperatures in the 70s at kickoff with 60s by the end of the games pretty much anywhere in the state.
This next front will set the stage for some Outstanding October weather for the weekend. High pressure will re-establish itself across the Gulf Coast in the wake of the boundary. The Gulf of Mexico will be closed for business once again with a offshore flow in place. Sunny skies are expected both Saturday and Sunday, and temperatures will be very similar to what we'll see over the next few days, although models keep trending cooler for the end of the forecast period, and it isn't out of the realm of possibility that it could be even cooler next go around. We will see how this transpires over the week. Either way, it promises to be a beautiful fall weekend. This will be the kind of weather everyone has longed for since we got into our miserable summer pattern back in May. Low temperatures will be near 60 on Saturday morning, and well down into the 50s (mid 50s let's say) for Sunday morning along the I-10 corridor. The full October sun will result in a nice warm up with highs still reaching the lower 80s, however upper 70s for maxes could be promising if the models keep trended cooler and cooler. This is great football weather, and that's great news because we have some more home games. LSU plays their 3rd straight home game. This time against SEC East foe Tennessee. This game kickoffs at 2:30p.m. Saturday afternoon, and you know the rowdy crowd will be raring to go with the feel of fall in the air. McNeese is on the road for an afternoon tilt in Natchitoches. They'll be opening up Southland Conference play against Northwestern, and looking to rebound after Saturday's embarrassing loss to Cal Poly in Lake Charles. That game kickoffs at 2 p.m. Temperatures should be in the low 80s at kickoff for both games, with 70s expected by game's end with nothing but sunshine expected. It will be great weather for any outdoor activities you may have, be it Saturday or Sunday after church. The Saints play at home next Sunday as well against divisional opponent, the Carolina Panthers. No weather issues there, of course, but it will be great weather for driving to the game. In the long range, fabulous fall weather will continue well into the first full week of October with no rain in sight. A series of dry cold fronts should keep the well-deserved fall weather going. We need the rain, and hopefully we will have a pattern shift sometime in the first half of October to allow for a significant rain event. These significant fronts should for all intents and purposes end any threat of tropical activity for this season around these parts. A Gulf storm can still happen in October, but in most cases the fronts act as a buffer from anything tropical. Hello fall, it's nice to see you, welcome back to SW Louisiana!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 60/81 56/83 57/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 60/81 57/83 57/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 61/82 57/84 58/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 56/79 53/83 54/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 57/79 53/83 54/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 62/82 58/84 59/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
Today...Sunny. High 81. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 56. Light North wind.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 83. North wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 57. Light North wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 85. NE wind 5-10 mph,
Monday 9/27/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
Noon
Weather: Sunny, Beautiful
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 12
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny, Fall is Here
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 13
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny, Gonna Be a Beautiful Sunset
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 9
9p.m.
Weather: Clear, A Great Night
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%Wind: N 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
9-27-10
Low: 60
High: 81Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Tuesday
9-28-10
Low: 56
High: 83Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Wednesday
9-29-10
Low: 57
High: 85Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Thursday
9-30-10
Low: 59
High: 87Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Friday
10-1-10
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Saturday
10-2-10
Low: 60
High: 84Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Sunday
10-3-10
Low: 55
High: 80Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Tropical Update...
There are currently no active tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin. Matthew moved inland into Central America and Southern Mexico Friday as a strong tropical storm, and has since unraveled over Mexico producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rains across Mexico and Central America over the weekend. Matthew has lost all sense of any tropical characteristics now, and is officially dead. Lisa underwent a growth spurt Friday, and briefly reached hurricane status while taking advantage of some favorable environmental conditions. The window for strengthening quickly closed on Lisa, and she began falling apart on Saturday, and as of Sunday evening at 4p.m. the National Hurricane Center had written the final advisory on Lisa. Lisa degenerated over the colder waters in the Eastern Atlantic between the Cape Verde Islands and the Azores. The colder waters and increasing wind shear worked in tandem to lead to Lisa's demise.
There are no active storms at the moment, but we do have one area of interest. The Western Caribbean in the vicinity of where Matthew made landfall remains unsettled early on this Monday morning. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low pressure resides in this region. There is some potential for slow development over the next few days, but this area is also in close proximity to land. So, while it may be in a favorable environment for development, its close proximity to Central America could inhibit development. The system should move slowly N or NW through Tuesday. Models have been hinting at some development in this area, and this could be what they were latching onto. We'll just have to wait and see, but either way this will be no threat to SW Louisiana given the upper level pattern over the Gulf of Mexico at this time. No tropical storm formation is expected through Tuesday.
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10a.m.*
Today...North winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Tuesday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:40a.m. 11:24p.m.
High: 3:21a.m. 7:24p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.88'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Low: 73
Normal Low: 66
Record Low: 51-2000
High: 90
Normal High: 86
Record High: 98-1910
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.92"
Normal Month to Date: 5.25"
Year to Date: 26.01"
Normal Year to Date: 43.34"
Record: 3.09"- 1957
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 72
High: 89
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 78
High: 91
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 51
High: 71
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Monday: 7:04a.m.
Sunset Monday: 7:03p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:34a.m.-7:33p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Friday October 1
New Moon- Thursday October 7
Last Quarter- Thursday October 14
Full Moon- Saturday October 23
Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
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