Tropical Weather Outlook...Hermine has lost any chance to continue to intensify now. Landfall has occurred in NE Mexico, and the center of circulation is approaching Brownsville, Texas as of this writing. The season's eighth named storm was a rather strong tropical storm, and will have a rather short life. It has only been a classified system for a little over 24 hours now. No change in the forecast philosophy, and this will be the last full length update on Hermine. I will continue to track it until the National Hurricane Center writes the final advisory on the cyclone, which should be sometime on Tuesday. The specifics for this update are below.
Tropical Storm Hermine
10p.m. CDT Monday, September 6, 2010
...Hermine Makes Landfall in NE Mexico...Currently near Brownsville, Texas...Heavy Rain & Gusty Winds Expected over Deep South Texas...
Latitude: 25.5 N
Longitude: 97.5 W
This is about 30 miles South of Brownsville, Texas and 120 miles North of La Pesca, Mexico.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph w/ higher gusts. Weakening is expected now that Hermine has moved inland, and Hermine should become a Tropical Depression over the Texas Hill Country Tuesday. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward to 105 miles from the center.
Movement: NNW or 330 degrees @ 14 mph. This motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn towards the North is expected over the next 24 hours, and on this track Hermine will move further inland over the Rio Grande Valley tonight, and into the Texas Hill Country in Central Texas Tuesday night.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.26" or 991 mb.
Watches/Warnings...All Hurricane Watches have been discontinued, as well as a portion of the Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Bahia Algodones, Mexico to Port O'Connor, Texas. This portion of the Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued sometime Tuesday morning.
Rainfall...Rainfall totals of 4-8" are expected across NE Mexico and S Texas with isolated higher amounts in excess of 12" in the higher elevations of Northern Mexico. This will lead to life-threatening flash-floods and mudslides.
Wind...Tropical storm force winds are occurring in the warning area mostly near and to the NE of the center into Deep South Texas.
Storm surge...Storm surge levels will be in the 2-4' range along and to the North of where the center of Hermine makes landfall Tuesday.
Tornadoes...Isolated tornadoes are possible across the Rio Grande Valley tonight and Tuesday, especially to the North (right) of the center of circulation. A Tornado Watch has been issued for South Texas until 5a.m. Tuesday.
Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion 3...Hermine made landfall right on schedule, maybe even a bit sooner than expected. Nevertheless, Hermine is inland, and is slowly beginning to unravel. The forecast was and still is pretty straightforward with Hermine. The cyclone is being steered around the edge of a strong Gulf Coastal Plain anti-cyclone, and this will keep Hermine on a NNW track tonight into South Texas before a bend to the N and eventually occurs over the next couple of days. It seems that the official intensity at landfall will be set at 65-70 mph, a strong tropical storm. If Hermine had another 12-24 hours over water it likely would've achieved hurricane status. As Hermine moves into the United States, and spins down, its moisture will spread out and widespread rain will cover much of Southern Texas. The pool of moisture will extend into South Louisiana on Tuesday, and much of the area stands to see off and on rain, with some pockets of heavy rainfall at times with up to 2" of rain possible locally. Heavier amounts will occur over SE Texas. This area will be in closer proximity to the actual cyclone. The effects of Hermine will be minimal here aside from the off and on rain and the possibility of minor coastal flooding. Further South and West, a flash flooding event may be realized through mid-week as the heavy rains from Hermine drench the area. As the storm spins down, the ongoing gusty winds across the Rio Grande Valley will become a non-issue, but the heavy rain and flood threat will continue for the next few days. A tornado threat also exists overnight and on Tuesday across South Texas. The highest chance for rain across our area will come on Tuesday while a decent chance will extend into Wednesday before drier air takes over for the latter half of the week. Hermine has behaved as expected since its inception, and there is no reason to believe that it won't continue to do so now that it is inland. This is the last full length discussion in regards to Hermine. The usual graphics follow.
The next advisory from the National Hurricane Center will be issued at 1a.m. CDT Tuesday, followed by a complete advisory at 4a.m. CDT Tuesday.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the remnants of Gaston continue to march Westward toward the Caribbean. The former Gaston is situated near the Leeward Islands tonight. This system has shown signs of better organization at times, and it appears that conditions will become more conducive for development over the next few days, so this system could once again be classified as a tropical system sometime this week.
There is nothing else of consequence at this time. No additional tropical cyclone formation is expected through Wednesday.
Have a good night & a great Tuesday! God bless!
-DM-
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