As we continue our look back at Hurricane Rita, the following is a very long post, and a very humbling and somber one. As we mark the anniversary of this powerful and devastating storm, this is the culmination of my look back on Rita. It is hard to believe it's been 5 years. The following information appears as is as it was published as Rita drew near. Some of the information in this entry comes straight from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles and the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Also, included is my own personal account of Rita.
This look back at Rita will be very lengthy, but please read it, and feel free to post your comments and questions about the storm. I would love to hear from you.
Tonight, I continue my look back at the most powerful storm to ever affect SW Louisiana: Hurricane Rita! We all have a story related to the storm, whether you evacuated or stayed behind. Here's my personal account of the storm. This was written shortly after the storm, and while I was still at ULM in the fall of 2005.
Hurricane Rita! The first major hurricane to hit
SW Louisiana in 48 years!
September 24, 2005 is a date none of us here will ever forget! It's the day a lot of lives in our beautiful corner of the world were turned upside down by the very worst of Mother Nature. Granted, I'm not trying to take away from the severity of Hurricane Katrina here, but Rita is by far the worst storm to ever hit the Lake Charles area. The national media coverage of Rita was more than subpar. It was like Lake Charles & vicinity never even existed except during the height of the storm, when you saw a few live reports from the city on national media outlets, but then the day after the storm all the attention was back on Katrina's aftermath, and how to rebuild the great city of New Orleans.
I know we'll all have many many stories to tell for years to come about how Rita affected our lives. I can't imagine the horror at the height of the storm for those who stayed. As one who loves weather, part of me wanted to be right here in the thick of the category 3 winds, but the human being in me, had more sense about it all, and stayed in Alexandria at a relative's house. I drove down there from Monroe on Thursday before the storm, and my parents drove off from our home here in Lake Charles that afternoon. It took them about 5 hours to reach Alexandria, a trip that normally takes around 90 minutes or so. I was the only one heading South on Highway 165. That is a visual image that will stick with me forever.
Before I get back into the meteorological aspect of Rita, I want to share some personal feelings I had of Rita. For me, it seemed so surreal after seeing what Rita did to SW Louisiana, after seeing the devastation of Katrina first hand over Labor Day weekend. I was in utter shock and awe when I went to SE Louisiana the weekend after Katrina hit. The first time I came back into Lake Charles after Rita was for fall break the 2nd week of October, and while things were already improving across the area, I was even more in shock after driving around town. You just can't believe something like that can happen until you see it first hand. I didn't think I'd ever see any devastation worse than what I encountered in the Covington-Mandeville area after Katrina, but Rita's damage here in the Lake area surpasses that. I stress that, I by no means, saw the worst of Katrina's damage, and I imagine that the damage in Mississippi is far far worse than that here in Lake Charles and surrounding areas. Cameron Parish, isn't too far behind what happened in coastal Mississippi, and I've heard many people from Cameron Parish who saw the devastation with Katrina in Mississippi, that this is just as bad as that.
I have seen some of the damage in Cameron Parish up close, and it is by far the worst thing I've ever seen. I haven't had a chance yet to get down to the Holly Beach or Johnson Bayou area, but I hope to do so before returning to Monroe for the Spring semester. Here we are, about 3 and a half months after the storm now, and there's still about 60-70% of the structures in Calcasieu Parish with blue roofs, and much of Cameron Parish is still uninhabitable with the mandatory evacuation being lifted just this week. There have been many images on local TV and in the American Press of Cameron Parish, and it is awful. Nothing hits you harder than seeing this happen in your community. It is a blessing that there was very little loss of life here in SW Louisiana/SE Texas because of Rita. I know, a lot of that was as a result of Katrina. Everyone saw how catastrophic Katrina was, and knew that at one point Rita was as strong as Katrina was. So, that combined, with the efforts of our local officials to stress the mandatory evacuation, really helped to cut down on the loss of life. Less than 10 lives combined have been taken as a result of Rita in SW Louisiana/SE Texas.
The 2005 Hurricane season was historic in more ways that one, and it's one that no one in SW Louisiana will ever forget thanks to just one of the 28 named storms. Can we now officially put the 2005 hurricane to rest? One can only hope, but after having Zeta form a month after the official end of hurricane season, you never know.
Most everyone knows by now, that I disagreed all along with the National Hurricane Center's initial forecast for Rita's landfall to occur in Texas between Galveston and Corpus Christi. Historically, most of the tropical storms make a right hand turn, and in the end Rita was no exception. There were other reasons that led me to believe that SW Louisiana was in trouble. For one, in the days preceding Rita, and really since Katrina the area had been under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure. We were at the tail end of our summer pattern, but the pattern that set up during the middle of September was more resemblent of July or August. Remember, it's usually around mid-September in which we start getting cold fronts again. September 2005 was different, however. The Bermuda High had built in across the area from the East, and under normal circumstances this high would help produce our typical round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We also were influenced by the big Desert SW Ridge, that can build in from time to time in the summer months, and make it down right miserably hot with temperatures over 100 (This was what produced the hottest temperature ever recorded in Lake Charles back in the summer of 2000.) So, this put what we call in meteorology, a cap on the atmosphere. Basically, that means we had warm air aloft as well as at the surface, thus suppressing any of the cumulus clouds from building up into the afternoon thunderstorm clouds. Oddly enough, as a result of these high pressures influence the region, we had our hottest stretch of weather this summer in the 4 days preceding Rita.
In their forecast discussions on Rita as she entered the Gulf of Mexico during the week of September 19th, the National Hurricane Center was consistent on the ridge holding firmly in place across SW Louisiana, thus steering Rita to the west towards the middle Texas coast. Another point I should make here is that these storms always follow the path of least resistance. I would read their discussion at each of their updates, and then look at the latest model runs, trying to forecast Rita's landfall. It's always a nervous time when there's a storm in the Gulf, because there's always a chance it could be ours, and it has to go somewhere once in the Gulf. From the time that Rita was developing, and intensifying in the Florida Keys, I had a feeling like I'd never had before about a storm. I really felt like something was not right about this storm, I just had that feeling of, I think this is the one. As a meteorologist, however, you don't forecast your gut feeling, and I never like to stray away from the National Hurricane Center's forecast for land falling tropical systems, as those guys usually do an excellent job. I analyzed all the model data with each run, and read other forecaster's opinions, and studied the synoptic pattern (large-scale pattern) across the country at that time. For the first few days of forecasting Rita, it was hard to get a read on what the models showed, as they did their usual flip-flop job with Rita. As each day passed I began to become increasingly concerned about a major hurricane threat in SW Louisiana, but I, along with everyone else I'm sure, never dreamed Rita would intensify so rapidly and become a category 5 like Katrina had done just 4 weeks earlier. However, the Gulf did have time to recover after Katrina, because of the unseasonably hot weather, and because the next few storms after Katrina were Atlantic storms.
While my official forecast was very close to the National Hurricane Center's, deep down, I still felt like it was going to be off-track. I based that on how the high pressures were set up at the time, and I knew where they would likely begin to break down first. In this complex situation of being influenced by 2 highs, they'd break down first right in the middle of the 2 axes, and this happened to be over SW Louisiana/SE Texas. I wasn't sure if I thought Rita would hit on the Texas side of the Sabine, or the Louisiana side, but I felt like we were going to see hurricane force winds in Lake Charles. I began telling my friends and family that I believe landfall would be between Sabine Pass and Cameron as a category 3 or 4. The Hurricane Center's forecast still called for landfall near Galveston on the 24th on the Wednesday night preceding Rita.
At that time I had just gotten off the phone with my mom, and was discussing things with her. I was awaiting the new model runs around 10 p.m. that night, and just as I feared, they had all shifted East, and also looking at Rita on satellite, it had taken more of a NW jog. By the time I went to bed that night, I was really concerned. I woke up Thursday morning to get ready for class, and my mom had been trying to get in touch with me. She couldn't get through on the cell phone, so luckily I had left my Instant Messenger connected that night, and she was able to get in touch with me through that. She told me that Calcasieu Parish was under mandatory evacuation orders, and that the storm had turned overnight. This was before I had a chance to look at the latest model data and storm information. I told her that the storm had turned more to the NW last night, before I went to bed, and the new model runs had been shifting further East like I suspected they would. I checked a few more things before I had to leave for class, and I told her, that indeed it was time to leave Lake Charles. It was hard to concentrate on anything else that Thursday.
I went on to class, but planned to head to meet mom and dad in Alexandria that afternoon. There was no way I was going to be away from my family at a time when our house might get torn up---I'm sure everyone else from the area felt the same way.
I ran back to the room after class to pack some things to head to Alexandria for the weekend, and checked the latest data once again. The models continue their Eastward shift, and now all of them had landfall between Galveston and Vermilion Bay, with Sabine Pass being the point of landfall, if you split it down the middle. Rita's wind field was larger than Katrina's, so at this point, I believed it was almost certain we'd see at least category 1 winds in Lake Charles even if landfall occurred more towards Galveston.
I headed off to Alexandria that afternoon, and would check the latest update once again when I got there. I set up shop at my aunt and uncle's house, and gave them the latest information as we waited for mom and dad's arrival. The 10 p.m. update told the story I had been feeling all week long...prepare for a direct hit from a major hurricane in SW Louisiana either late Friday or early Saturday. I checked the synoptics of the situation once again, and I said landfall could be right on the state line, that appeared to be where the weakness in the ridge was strongest. The hurricane center anticipated a storm surge of about 15' to the right of where landfall occurred. This would wipe out most of the coastal communities in Cameron Parish, and drive water up the Calcasieu Ship Channel creating storm surge of 6-8' in Lake Charles. The wind field would produce winds over 100 mph in the Lake Charles and Beaumont areas with a landfall between Sabine Pass and Cameron.
Thursday night was a long night, as I spent most of it forecasting and got very little sleep, and once I woke up on Friday I knew there'd be no sleeping again until Rita was over with, which wouldn't be til Saturday night. So, in all, I was up for about 36 hours straight. Conditions rapidly went downhill on Friday, the 23rd as Rita approached the coastline. The hurricane center continued to state landfall would occur sometime Friday night or Saturday morning in SE Texas or SW Louisiana, and a wobble one way or the other would determine which side of the state line it would occur on, but wouldn't really affect how strong the winds would be since Rita's wind field was massive. In Alexandria, over 100 miles inland, I estimated a wind gust of 85 mph as the storm made its closest approach to Alexandria around mid-morning Saturday.
Another image of Rita that will always stick in my mind is seeing FOX News broadcasting from L'Auberge du Lac at 3 a.m. (just after landfall) and not being able to see anything but all the horizontal rain. It was difficult to watch, as we've never seen weather quite like that in this city in our lifetime. Even I as a meteorologist, who is supposed to be a calm mediator during a time like that, burst into tears. I think it was just me not knowing what's happening to my house, and what will the city I've lived in, and loved all my life look like tomorrow. We lost power twice in Alexandria, so most of the time during the height of the storm my hands were tied, and my information was very limited. I did have full capacity as the eye made landfall at 2:38 a.m. near Johnson Bayou with 120 mph winds. (Cat. 3).
The preliminary report which continues to be updated by the National Weather Service here in Lake Charles shows that wind gusts over 130 mph were recorded along the Calcasieu Ship Channel. Looking at the damage around Calcasieu Parish, I'd say that that was highly possible. I'd estimate winds near 120 mph here at my house, and I am convinced a spin-off tornado from Rita's eastern eye wall traveled right down my street. The bushes in my yard look as though they were nearly sucked right out of the ground, and all the trees that were standing at the end of the street in the woods behind the fence are down, and facing different directions, as well as the trees in the field across Nelson Road. Note, that most tornadoes travel from SW to NE, and if you draw a line of the damage path through my subdivision and across Nelson Road it takes the track that a tornado would. Tornadoes are very common in the eastern side of a hurricane, and the official number of tornadoes with the eyewall of Rita is not known at this time. There were likely so many that occurred between Beaumont and Lake Charles, that the Weather Service can't possibly keep track. The eastern eyewall passed directly over the cities of Lake Charles and Sulphur, and that is where some of the strongest winds occur. The storm surge reached 6' along the shores of Lake Charles, and on the Calcasieu River in downtown Lake Charles. The Intracoastal Waterway created storm surge flooding all the way up to the Airport with 2' of water covering Gauthier Road between Nelson Road and Big Lake Road. There was total devastation from the storm surge in Cameron Parish in communities such as Holly Beach, Constance Beach, Cameron, and Johnson Bayou. More information on the storm surge and wind speeds can be found from the National Weather Service's Lake Charles site at www.srh.noaa.gov/lch
SW Louisiana shows signs of recovery from our area's worst natural disaster everyday, but it will take many years to rebuild Cameron Parish to what it once was before Rita. Here, in Lake Charles, we still have a lot of work to do to get back to what we were before the storm, but I know with the heart and determination of the great people of SW Louisiana we will do so for Lake Charles and all of our towns here in SW Louisiana. Rita is a storm none of us will ever forget, and it has once again reassured me that meteorology is where I belong. Everyone has told me what a good job I did forecasting Rita, and I appreciate that, but this was one of the few times that I wanted to be wrong as a meteorologist.
My hope is that everyone will always pay attention to the weather, and that after enduring a storm as powerful as Rita, realize how important it is to know what the weather will do. The 2005 hurricane season was one for the record books with Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma affecting the United States as major hurricanes, and no one in this state will ever forget Katrina and Rita. Let's all hope and pray that SW Louisiana and everyone else affected by storms recently, can have a speedy recovery, and that it will be a really long time before we ever see a storm of that magnitude again.
*Again, this is the post as it was actually produced back in late 2005.
Now, as we continue a look back at Rita, here is my forecast discussion and information from the NWS Lake Charles and National Hurricane Center from Thursday, September 22, and Friday, September 23, 2005 leading up to the onslaught of Rita.
Thursday, September 22, 2005!
*CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA AIMED AT UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SW LOUISIANA COAST.*
If you haven't left the area yet, I advise you to please do so as soon as possible. This will be the absolute worst weather than any of us have ever seen. This storm will be worse than the current benchmark storm for SW Louisiana, Hurricane Audrey in 1957.
Ironically, Audrey was the last time SW Louisiana received a direct hit from a major hurricane.
Below, I will post the latest information from the National Hurricane Center, and then I will post the latest statements from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, LA. I will conclude the update with my discussion, and what I believe will happen across the area.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. THE WATCH IN MEXICO MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N... 90.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031210.shtml?3day?large
Now, here's the latest statement from the NWS Lake Charles office!
HURRICANE RITA... STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA... VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
...WATCHES/WARNING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
HURRICANE RITA IS NOT A POINT...BUT A LARGE STORM COVERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT NOT JUST AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL BUT FOR A LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES.
CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH.
JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.
VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS.
ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES..
SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES.
ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS.
LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE.
IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14.
LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY.
EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS.
HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER.
IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY.
NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT:
SABINE PASS:
FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT
SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT
CALCASIEU PASS:
FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT
SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT
SOUTHWEST PASS:
FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT
SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT
BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
...WIND IMPACTS...
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
...TORNADO IMPACTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 200 AM CDT.
Here's another statement from the NWS Lake Charles...
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ON THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST. THE LARGE HURRICANE WIND FIELD WILL COVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND FAR INLAND FROM THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS WELL.
...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY.
...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE EXPECTED TO MAN MADE AND NATURAL STRUCTURES...
THE EYE WALL OF HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE EYE WALL COULD BE AROUND 130 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 165 MPH WHEN IT HITS THE COAST. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SIZE OF THE EYE WALL...THE EXACT LOCATION ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE EYE WALL OF A HURRICANE WITH THIS STRENGTH.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOF AND WALLS. DESTRUCTION MAY OCCUR TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS...WITH THE WIND LIFTING THEM OFF. MORE THAN HALF OF ALL INDUSTRIAL
BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED GARDEN APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...AND OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL FAILURES.
HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY. MOST WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS...SOME PIECES GREATER THAN 50 POUNDS...WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS ARE AT GREAT RISK FOR INJURY OR DEATH.
ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. THE MAJORITY OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED...MOST COMMON AMONG THOSE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE. CITRUS ORCHARDS WILL BE DESTROYED AS WILL ALL NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS. ESTABLISHED GROUND CROPS WILL HAVE DAMAGE...WITH UP TO ONE HALF OF FIELDS NO LONGER ARABLE. LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE CRITICALLY INJURED OR KILLED.
OTHER AREAS A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE ACTUAL EYE WALL WILL SEE AT-LEAST HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF DAMAGE.
...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...
...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES LIKELY...
...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...
THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...
GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.
...NATURAL DAMAGE...
ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP...AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO CITRUS ORCHARDS...INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.
Now, here's my discussion...
It can't be stressed enough, if you live in any of the areas that have issued a mandatory evacuation, or a voluntary or recommended evacuation, and you can leave, plase do so. This is a very very serious and deadly situation. None of us have ever seen a storm of this magnitude here in SW Louisiana. There will be widespread severe damage here in the city of Lake Charles from winds over 100 mph. We also have to worry about storm surge flooding here in town, as the surge along and to the East of the center will be around 25 feet or greater. This will send the storm surge all the way up to I-10 and the National Weather Service expects flooding from storm surge in Lake Charles, Sulphur, Beaumont, and Orange. There could be over 5 feet of water in downtown Lake Charles.
This will be a similar situation to Hurricane Katrina 3 weeks ago on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. As a general rule of thumb, the storm surge with Hurricane Audrey reached as far inland as Lake Charles Regional Airport. This storm surge will literally wipe the towns along the coast off the map. Numerous trees will be downed or uprooted across the entire area. Expect widespread power outages across the entire area as well, for days and probably weeks, maybe up to a month in some areas. Food and water supplies will be greatly affected, and it will be very hard to find these essentials for quite some time. There will be gasoline shortages, as well as long-term communication disruptions across the area. This will by far be the worst natural disaster ever to strike SW Louisiana.
It is very common in tropical systems to see tornadoes on the right hand side of this storm. We will begin to see the threat for tornadoes Friday afternoon, and this threat may continue through at least Monday across much of the state. This storm will likely stall out somewhere in East or NE Texas or Western Louisiana. This will result in catastrophic flooding in some areas, as the moisture is just pumped over our area. Rainfall amounts as the hurricane makes landfall will likely be 10-15" across Southern sections of the area, and 5-10" across northern portions. This is just the rainfall totals as Rita approaches the coast, and moves inland. Some locations may wind up with over 30" of rain. The flooding in itself will have the potential to cause a prolific death toll as well. Many parts of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, so plan on staying wherever you have evacuated to for at least a few weeks.
This is a storm that will affect everyone's life, and it will change the landscape of SW Louisiana forever. Tropical Storm force winds begin to affect SW Louisiana from SE to NW on Friday morning. These winds of 39-73 mph will begin being felt in the Acadiana area by sunrise Friday, and in the Lake Charles area by mid morning Friday, and by noon in SE Texas. By Friday evening, hurricane force winds will be approaching the coast. I think that hurricane force winds will reach Lake Charles around midnight Saturday or a little sooner, and last til around noon Saturday. On the current forecast track, I expect winds of category 3 strength in Lake Charles, around 120 mph. These winds will be much higher down along the coast at Cameron where winds up to 150 mph are possible with higher gusts. Hurricane force winds could be felt as far north as Alexandria. Sustained tropical storm force winds may extend all the way into Southern Arkansas. There will be power outages and tons of downed trees as far inland as I-20, not to mention the damage the flooding could do. Remember, the threat for tornadoes! These tornadoes will be rain-wrapped, and will occur with little or no advanced warning. You likely won't see the tornado at all, and will only hear it when it is right on top of you. I expect the Storm Prediction Center to issue a tornado watch for the entire area by Friday afternoon. Like I said, the tornado threat may continue into Monday. These systems tend to spin off more tornadoes as they wind down.
That will do it for now, I will more updates during the day Friday. I'm gonna try and get some sleep! I don't think I'll be getting any sleep for the next couple days! Not many of us will! This is the proverbial calm before the storm! At this point, I hope everyone has left the area, and made all the preparations to their homes and property. All I can recommend at this point, is prayer! There's nothing stronger than the power of prayer, and our fate lies in the hands of God! Take care everyone, please leave the area, be safe, and God bless all of us facing this catastrophic hurricane!
-Drew-
It wouldn't be a look back at Rita without some videos and pictures.
These pictures are a perfect illustration of what storm surge can do and did. The surge is the most devastating aspect of the storm along the coast.
Holly Beach, LA before and after Rita.
Another image of Holly Beach, LA after Rita
September 24, 2005 is a date none of us here will ever forget! It's the day a lot of lives in our beautiful corner of the world were turned upside down by the very worst of Mother Nature. Granted, I'm not trying to take away from the severity of Hurricane Katrina here, but Rita is by far the worst storm to ever hit the Lake Charles area. The national media coverage of Rita was more than subpar. It was like Lake Charles & vicinity never even existed except during the height of the storm, when you saw a few live reports from the city on national media outlets, but then the day after the storm all the attention was back on Katrina's aftermath, and how to rebuild the great city of New Orleans.
I know we'll all have many many stories to tell for years to come about how Rita affected our lives. I can't imagine the horror at the height of the storm for those who stayed. As one who loves weather, part of me wanted to be right here in the thick of the category 3 winds, but the human being in me, had more sense about it all, and stayed in Alexandria at a relative's house. I drove down there from Monroe on Thursday before the storm, and my parents drove off from our home here in Lake Charles that afternoon. It took them about 5 hours to reach Alexandria, a trip that normally takes around 90 minutes or so. I was the only one heading South on Highway 165. That is a visual image that will stick with me forever.
Before I get back into the meteorological aspect of Rita, I want to share some personal feelings I had of Rita. For me, it seemed so surreal after seeing what Rita did to SW Louisiana, after seeing the devastation of Katrina first hand over Labor Day weekend. I was in utter shock and awe when I went to SE Louisiana the weekend after Katrina hit. The first time I came back into Lake Charles after Rita was for fall break the 2nd week of October, and while things were already improving across the area, I was even more in shock after driving around town. You just can't believe something like that can happen until you see it first hand. I didn't think I'd ever see any devastation worse than what I encountered in the Covington-Mandeville area after Katrina, but Rita's damage here in the Lake area surpasses that. I stress that, I by no means, saw the worst of Katrina's damage, and I imagine that the damage in Mississippi is far far worse than that here in Lake Charles and surrounding areas. Cameron Parish, isn't too far behind what happened in coastal Mississippi, and I've heard many people from Cameron Parish who saw the devastation with Katrina in Mississippi, that this is just as bad as that.
I have seen some of the damage in Cameron Parish up close, and it is by far the worst thing I've ever seen. I haven't had a chance yet to get down to the Holly Beach or Johnson Bayou area, but I hope to do so before returning to Monroe for the Spring semester. Here we are, about 3 and a half months after the storm now, and there's still about 60-70% of the structures in Calcasieu Parish with blue roofs, and much of Cameron Parish is still uninhabitable with the mandatory evacuation being lifted just this week. There have been many images on local TV and in the American Press of Cameron Parish, and it is awful. Nothing hits you harder than seeing this happen in your community. It is a blessing that there was very little loss of life here in SW Louisiana/SE Texas because of Rita. I know, a lot of that was as a result of Katrina. Everyone saw how catastrophic Katrina was, and knew that at one point Rita was as strong as Katrina was. So, that combined, with the efforts of our local officials to stress the mandatory evacuation, really helped to cut down on the loss of life. Less than 10 lives combined have been taken as a result of Rita in SW Louisiana/SE Texas.
The 2005 Hurricane season was historic in more ways that one, and it's one that no one in SW Louisiana will ever forget thanks to just one of the 28 named storms. Can we now officially put the 2005 hurricane to rest? One can only hope, but after having Zeta form a month after the official end of hurricane season, you never know.
Most everyone knows by now, that I disagreed all along with the National Hurricane Center's initial forecast for Rita's landfall to occur in Texas between Galveston and Corpus Christi. Historically, most of the tropical storms make a right hand turn, and in the end Rita was no exception. There were other reasons that led me to believe that SW Louisiana was in trouble. For one, in the days preceding Rita, and really since Katrina the area had been under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure. We were at the tail end of our summer pattern, but the pattern that set up during the middle of September was more resemblent of July or August. Remember, it's usually around mid-September in which we start getting cold fronts again. September 2005 was different, however. The Bermuda High had built in across the area from the East, and under normal circumstances this high would help produce our typical round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We also were influenced by the big Desert SW Ridge, that can build in from time to time in the summer months, and make it down right miserably hot with temperatures over 100 (This was what produced the hottest temperature ever recorded in Lake Charles back in the summer of 2000.) So, this put what we call in meteorology, a cap on the atmosphere. Basically, that means we had warm air aloft as well as at the surface, thus suppressing any of the cumulus clouds from building up into the afternoon thunderstorm clouds. Oddly enough, as a result of these high pressures influence the region, we had our hottest stretch of weather this summer in the 4 days preceding Rita.
In their forecast discussions on Rita as she entered the Gulf of Mexico during the week of September 19th, the National Hurricane Center was consistent on the ridge holding firmly in place across SW Louisiana, thus steering Rita to the west towards the middle Texas coast. Another point I should make here is that these storms always follow the path of least resistance. I would read their discussion at each of their updates, and then look at the latest model runs, trying to forecast Rita's landfall. It's always a nervous time when there's a storm in the Gulf, because there's always a chance it could be ours, and it has to go somewhere once in the Gulf. From the time that Rita was developing, and intensifying in the Florida Keys, I had a feeling like I'd never had before about a storm. I really felt like something was not right about this storm, I just had that feeling of, I think this is the one. As a meteorologist, however, you don't forecast your gut feeling, and I never like to stray away from the National Hurricane Center's forecast for land falling tropical systems, as those guys usually do an excellent job. I analyzed all the model data with each run, and read other forecaster's opinions, and studied the synoptic pattern (large-scale pattern) across the country at that time. For the first few days of forecasting Rita, it was hard to get a read on what the models showed, as they did their usual flip-flop job with Rita. As each day passed I began to become increasingly concerned about a major hurricane threat in SW Louisiana, but I, along with everyone else I'm sure, never dreamed Rita would intensify so rapidly and become a category 5 like Katrina had done just 4 weeks earlier. However, the Gulf did have time to recover after Katrina, because of the unseasonably hot weather, and because the next few storms after Katrina were Atlantic storms.
While my official forecast was very close to the National Hurricane Center's, deep down, I still felt like it was going to be off-track. I based that on how the high pressures were set up at the time, and I knew where they would likely begin to break down first. In this complex situation of being influenced by 2 highs, they'd break down first right in the middle of the 2 axes, and this happened to be over SW Louisiana/SE Texas. I wasn't sure if I thought Rita would hit on the Texas side of the Sabine, or the Louisiana side, but I felt like we were going to see hurricane force winds in Lake Charles. I began telling my friends and family that I believe landfall would be between Sabine Pass and Cameron as a category 3 or 4. The Hurricane Center's forecast still called for landfall near Galveston on the 24th on the Wednesday night preceding Rita.
At that time I had just gotten off the phone with my mom, and was discussing things with her. I was awaiting the new model runs around 10 p.m. that night, and just as I feared, they had all shifted East, and also looking at Rita on satellite, it had taken more of a NW jog. By the time I went to bed that night, I was really concerned. I woke up Thursday morning to get ready for class, and my mom had been trying to get in touch with me. She couldn't get through on the cell phone, so luckily I had left my Instant Messenger connected that night, and she was able to get in touch with me through that. She told me that Calcasieu Parish was under mandatory evacuation orders, and that the storm had turned overnight. This was before I had a chance to look at the latest model data and storm information. I told her that the storm had turned more to the NW last night, before I went to bed, and the new model runs had been shifting further East like I suspected they would. I checked a few more things before I had to leave for class, and I told her, that indeed it was time to leave Lake Charles. It was hard to concentrate on anything else that Thursday.
I went on to class, but planned to head to meet mom and dad in Alexandria that afternoon. There was no way I was going to be away from my family at a time when our house might get torn up---I'm sure everyone else from the area felt the same way.
I ran back to the room after class to pack some things to head to Alexandria for the weekend, and checked the latest data once again. The models continue their Eastward shift, and now all of them had landfall between Galveston and Vermilion Bay, with Sabine Pass being the point of landfall, if you split it down the middle. Rita's wind field was larger than Katrina's, so at this point, I believed it was almost certain we'd see at least category 1 winds in Lake Charles even if landfall occurred more towards Galveston.
I headed off to Alexandria that afternoon, and would check the latest update once again when I got there. I set up shop at my aunt and uncle's house, and gave them the latest information as we waited for mom and dad's arrival. The 10 p.m. update told the story I had been feeling all week long...prepare for a direct hit from a major hurricane in SW Louisiana either late Friday or early Saturday. I checked the synoptics of the situation once again, and I said landfall could be right on the state line, that appeared to be where the weakness in the ridge was strongest. The hurricane center anticipated a storm surge of about 15' to the right of where landfall occurred. This would wipe out most of the coastal communities in Cameron Parish, and drive water up the Calcasieu Ship Channel creating storm surge of 6-8' in Lake Charles. The wind field would produce winds over 100 mph in the Lake Charles and Beaumont areas with a landfall between Sabine Pass and Cameron.
Thursday night was a long night, as I spent most of it forecasting and got very little sleep, and once I woke up on Friday I knew there'd be no sleeping again until Rita was over with, which wouldn't be til Saturday night. So, in all, I was up for about 36 hours straight. Conditions rapidly went downhill on Friday, the 23rd as Rita approached the coastline. The hurricane center continued to state landfall would occur sometime Friday night or Saturday morning in SE Texas or SW Louisiana, and a wobble one way or the other would determine which side of the state line it would occur on, but wouldn't really affect how strong the winds would be since Rita's wind field was massive. In Alexandria, over 100 miles inland, I estimated a wind gust of 85 mph as the storm made its closest approach to Alexandria around mid-morning Saturday.
Another image of Rita that will always stick in my mind is seeing FOX News broadcasting from L'Auberge du Lac at 3 a.m. (just after landfall) and not being able to see anything but all the horizontal rain. It was difficult to watch, as we've never seen weather quite like that in this city in our lifetime. Even I as a meteorologist, who is supposed to be a calm mediator during a time like that, burst into tears. I think it was just me not knowing what's happening to my house, and what will the city I've lived in, and loved all my life look like tomorrow. We lost power twice in Alexandria, so most of the time during the height of the storm my hands were tied, and my information was very limited. I did have full capacity as the eye made landfall at 2:38 a.m. near Johnson Bayou with 120 mph winds. (Cat. 3).
The preliminary report which continues to be updated by the National Weather Service here in Lake Charles shows that wind gusts over 130 mph were recorded along the Calcasieu Ship Channel. Looking at the damage around Calcasieu Parish, I'd say that that was highly possible. I'd estimate winds near 120 mph here at my house, and I am convinced a spin-off tornado from Rita's eastern eye wall traveled right down my street. The bushes in my yard look as though they were nearly sucked right out of the ground, and all the trees that were standing at the end of the street in the woods behind the fence are down, and facing different directions, as well as the trees in the field across Nelson Road. Note, that most tornadoes travel from SW to NE, and if you draw a line of the damage path through my subdivision and across Nelson Road it takes the track that a tornado would. Tornadoes are very common in the eastern side of a hurricane, and the official number of tornadoes with the eyewall of Rita is not known at this time. There were likely so many that occurred between Beaumont and Lake Charles, that the Weather Service can't possibly keep track. The eastern eyewall passed directly over the cities of Lake Charles and Sulphur, and that is where some of the strongest winds occur. The storm surge reached 6' along the shores of Lake Charles, and on the Calcasieu River in downtown Lake Charles. The Intracoastal Waterway created storm surge flooding all the way up to the Airport with 2' of water covering Gauthier Road between Nelson Road and Big Lake Road. There was total devastation from the storm surge in Cameron Parish in communities such as Holly Beach, Constance Beach, Cameron, and Johnson Bayou. More information on the storm surge and wind speeds can be found from the National Weather Service's Lake Charles site at www.srh.noaa.gov/lch
SW Louisiana shows signs of recovery from our area's worst natural disaster everyday, but it will take many years to rebuild Cameron Parish to what it once was before Rita. Here, in Lake Charles, we still have a lot of work to do to get back to what we were before the storm, but I know with the heart and determination of the great people of SW Louisiana we will do so for Lake Charles and all of our towns here in SW Louisiana. Rita is a storm none of us will ever forget, and it has once again reassured me that meteorology is where I belong. Everyone has told me what a good job I did forecasting Rita, and I appreciate that, but this was one of the few times that I wanted to be wrong as a meteorologist.
My hope is that everyone will always pay attention to the weather, and that after enduring a storm as powerful as Rita, realize how important it is to know what the weather will do. The 2005 hurricane season was one for the record books with Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma affecting the United States as major hurricanes, and no one in this state will ever forget Katrina and Rita. Let's all hope and pray that SW Louisiana and everyone else affected by storms recently, can have a speedy recovery, and that it will be a really long time before we ever see a storm of that magnitude again.
*Again, this is the post as it was actually produced back in late 2005.
Now, as we continue a look back at Rita, here is my forecast discussion and information from the NWS Lake Charles and National Hurricane Center from Thursday, September 22, and Friday, September 23, 2005 leading up to the onslaught of Rita.
| Thursday, September 22,
2005! RITA A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS NW GULF COAST... *FORECAST TRACK AND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD.* *THREAT FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE IN SW LOUISIANA DRAMATICALLY INCREASING THIS MORNING.* *MANDATORY EVACUATIONS FOR CAMERON PARISH, AND CALCASIEU PARISH SOUTH OF I-10.* My advice to all of us is to leave the city of Lake Charles as soon as possible. It appears likely that we will see hurricane force winds in the Lake area. DO NOT PANIC! DO NOT PANIC! Prepare your home and property for the possibility of sustained hurricane force winds. Fill up your car with gas, and take as many valuables with you as you can. Take extra cash, and make arrangements for your pets! This is a life-threatening situation, and it is going to be a very catastrophic storm in the areas along and just to the right of where the eye makes landfall. This will be a storm that changes many people's lives across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. If for some reason, you can't leave your home, please make sure you have enough food and supplies for at least a week. Power outages will occur, and may last for weeks. Stay tuned to local media outlets and your local authorities! Following is the latest advisory on Hurricane Rita from the National Hurricane Center! POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 491 MILES SSE OF LAKE CHARLES. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ..INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...25.2 N... 88.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...170 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. I will have more information a little this morning, due to time constraints, I must end this one! I promise you that I will update as much as I can as long as Rita is a threat, and as long as I have power. Take care and pray for the best! -Drew- |
Thursday, September 22, 2005!
*CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA AIMED AT UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SW LOUISIANA COAST.*
If you haven't left the area yet, I advise you to please do so as soon as possible. This will be the absolute worst weather than any of us have ever seen. This storm will be worse than the current benchmark storm for SW Louisiana, Hurricane Audrey in 1957.
Ironically, Audrey was the last time SW Louisiana received a direct hit from a major hurricane.
Below, I will post the latest information from the National Hurricane Center, and then I will post the latest statements from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, LA. I will conclude the update with my discussion, and what I believe will happen across the area.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. THE WATCH IN MEXICO MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N... 90.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031210.shtml?3day?large
Now, here's the latest statement from the NWS Lake Charles office!
HURRICANE RITA... STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA... VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
...WATCHES/WARNING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
HURRICANE RITA IS NOT A POINT...BUT A LARGE STORM COVERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT NOT JUST AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL BUT FOR A LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES.
CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH.
JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.
VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS.
ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES..
SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES.
ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS.
LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE.
IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14.
LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY.
EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS.
HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER.
IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY.
NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT:
SABINE PASS:
FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT
SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT
CALCASIEU PASS:
FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT
SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT
SOUTHWEST PASS:
FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT
SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT
BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
...WIND IMPACTS...
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
...TORNADO IMPACTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 200 AM CDT.
Here's another statement from the NWS Lake Charles...
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ON THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST. THE LARGE HURRICANE WIND FIELD WILL COVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND FAR INLAND FROM THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS WELL.
...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY.
...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE EXPECTED TO MAN MADE AND NATURAL STRUCTURES...
THE EYE WALL OF HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE EYE WALL COULD BE AROUND 130 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 165 MPH WHEN IT HITS THE COAST. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SIZE OF THE EYE WALL...THE EXACT LOCATION ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE EYE WALL OF A HURRICANE WITH THIS STRENGTH.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOF AND WALLS. DESTRUCTION MAY OCCUR TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS...WITH THE WIND LIFTING THEM OFF. MORE THAN HALF OF ALL INDUSTRIAL
BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED GARDEN APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...AND OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL FAILURES.
HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY. MOST WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS...SOME PIECES GREATER THAN 50 POUNDS...WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS ARE AT GREAT RISK FOR INJURY OR DEATH.
ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. THE MAJORITY OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED...MOST COMMON AMONG THOSE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE. CITRUS ORCHARDS WILL BE DESTROYED AS WILL ALL NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS. ESTABLISHED GROUND CROPS WILL HAVE DAMAGE...WITH UP TO ONE HALF OF FIELDS NO LONGER ARABLE. LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE CRITICALLY INJURED OR KILLED.
OTHER AREAS A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE ACTUAL EYE WALL WILL SEE AT-LEAST HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF DAMAGE.
...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...
...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES LIKELY...
...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...
THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...
GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.
...NATURAL DAMAGE...
ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP...AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO CITRUS ORCHARDS...INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.
Now, here's my discussion...
It can't be stressed enough, if you live in any of the areas that have issued a mandatory evacuation, or a voluntary or recommended evacuation, and you can leave, plase do so. This is a very very serious and deadly situation. None of us have ever seen a storm of this magnitude here in SW Louisiana. There will be widespread severe damage here in the city of Lake Charles from winds over 100 mph. We also have to worry about storm surge flooding here in town, as the surge along and to the East of the center will be around 25 feet or greater. This will send the storm surge all the way up to I-10 and the National Weather Service expects flooding from storm surge in Lake Charles, Sulphur, Beaumont, and Orange. There could be over 5 feet of water in downtown Lake Charles.
This will be a similar situation to Hurricane Katrina 3 weeks ago on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. As a general rule of thumb, the storm surge with Hurricane Audrey reached as far inland as Lake Charles Regional Airport. This storm surge will literally wipe the towns along the coast off the map. Numerous trees will be downed or uprooted across the entire area. Expect widespread power outages across the entire area as well, for days and probably weeks, maybe up to a month in some areas. Food and water supplies will be greatly affected, and it will be very hard to find these essentials for quite some time. There will be gasoline shortages, as well as long-term communication disruptions across the area. This will by far be the worst natural disaster ever to strike SW Louisiana.
It is very common in tropical systems to see tornadoes on the right hand side of this storm. We will begin to see the threat for tornadoes Friday afternoon, and this threat may continue through at least Monday across much of the state. This storm will likely stall out somewhere in East or NE Texas or Western Louisiana. This will result in catastrophic flooding in some areas, as the moisture is just pumped over our area. Rainfall amounts as the hurricane makes landfall will likely be 10-15" across Southern sections of the area, and 5-10" across northern portions. This is just the rainfall totals as Rita approaches the coast, and moves inland. Some locations may wind up with over 30" of rain. The flooding in itself will have the potential to cause a prolific death toll as well. Many parts of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, so plan on staying wherever you have evacuated to for at least a few weeks.
This is a storm that will affect everyone's life, and it will change the landscape of SW Louisiana forever. Tropical Storm force winds begin to affect SW Louisiana from SE to NW on Friday morning. These winds of 39-73 mph will begin being felt in the Acadiana area by sunrise Friday, and in the Lake Charles area by mid morning Friday, and by noon in SE Texas. By Friday evening, hurricane force winds will be approaching the coast. I think that hurricane force winds will reach Lake Charles around midnight Saturday or a little sooner, and last til around noon Saturday. On the current forecast track, I expect winds of category 3 strength in Lake Charles, around 120 mph. These winds will be much higher down along the coast at Cameron where winds up to 150 mph are possible with higher gusts. Hurricane force winds could be felt as far north as Alexandria. Sustained tropical storm force winds may extend all the way into Southern Arkansas. There will be power outages and tons of downed trees as far inland as I-20, not to mention the damage the flooding could do. Remember, the threat for tornadoes! These tornadoes will be rain-wrapped, and will occur with little or no advanced warning. You likely won't see the tornado at all, and will only hear it when it is right on top of you. I expect the Storm Prediction Center to issue a tornado watch for the entire area by Friday afternoon. Like I said, the tornado threat may continue into Monday. These systems tend to spin off more tornadoes as they wind down.
That will do it for now, I will more updates during the day Friday. I'm gonna try and get some sleep! I don't think I'll be getting any sleep for the next couple days! Not many of us will! This is the proverbial calm before the storm! At this point, I hope everyone has left the area, and made all the preparations to their homes and property. All I can recommend at this point, is prayer! There's nothing stronger than the power of prayer, and our fate lies in the hands of God! Take care everyone, please leave the area, be safe, and God bless all of us facing this catastrophic hurricane!
-Drew-
It wouldn't be a look back at Rita without some videos and pictures.
These pictures are a perfect illustration of what storm surge can do and did. The surge is the most devastating aspect of the storm along the coast.
Holly Beach, LA before and after Rita.
Another image of Holly Beach, LA after Rita
Now, courtesy of The National Weather Service here are some pictures from the extensive damage Rita caused in Lake Charles:
For a look at tons more pictures of damage around the area, log on to
the National Weather Service Lake Charles Hurricane Rita page: NWS Rita Page
To close out our look back at Rita: SW Louisiana's Storm here's links to some YouTube videos.
In closing, here's a bit more on Rita:
Rita was a historical storm in every sense of the word. At peak
intensity, Rita became the most intense storm ever recorded in the Gulf
of Mexico with top winds of 180 mph and a pressure of 897 mb. Rita set a
record for rapid intensification as the pressure dropped 70 mb. in 24
hours...from 967 mb. at 10p.m. on Tuesday September 20 to 897 mb. at
10p.m. on Wednesday September 21. This pressure reading also made Rita
the third most intense hurricane on record in the entire Atlantic Basin
at the time. Rita strengthened from a tropical storm to a category 5
hurricane in about 36 hours, and maintained category 5 strength for
about 18 hours.
Rita caused the largest evacuation of the Gulf coast in history at
the time. Most of SW Louisiana was uninhabitable for several weeks after
the storm with authorities officially keeping Calcasieu Parish closed
into the first full week of October. Cameron and Vermilion Parishes was
uninhabitable for much longer due to the widespread destruction from the
storm surge. Power and other essentials didn't return for much of the
area until early October. The flooding from the storm was a bigger issue
than freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall, because the summer of
2005 was very dry, and widespread drought conditions were in place
across the area when Rita hit. The entire area saw 8-12" of rainfall
with Rita, but this didn't lead to any additional flooding problems.
While no official count has been given on the number of tornadoes from
Rita across SW Louisiana, Rita was responsible for the largest number of
spin-off tornadoes from any tropical cyclone, and the largest September
tornado outbreak in history as well. The National Hurricane Center
reports that at least 90 tornadoes occurred as a result of Rita, and
this number is likely higher since the count is unknown across our area.
Rita is monumental in that nearly every structure across the area
experienced some sort of damage whether it was just a few shingles
missing off a roof or complete destruction, it affected all of us, and
for many of us our lives will never be the same. It is a crying shame
that Rita is so forgotten by so many. Those of us here will never
forget.
Hurricane Rita is certainly by far the worst natural disaster ever
experienced in our area, and will now be considered the benchmark storm
for the area surpassing Hurricane Audrey from 1957. The 2005 was
historical in many ways, and while there may have been 28 named storms,
as far as those of here in Louisiana are concerned there was really only
2. It is a wonderful blessing that there was very minimal loss of life
in our area from this most destructive storm. Some of this can certainly
be attributed to Katrina 3 and a half weeks earlier, and I believe had
Katrina not happened, many many people would have stayed home, and the
loss of life would have been far greater than it was. SW Louisiana is a
great place to live, and it is and always will be home. The hearts and
generosity of the people of SW Louisiana are bigger than anywhere else
in the world, and in our darkest moments neighbors helped neighbors, and
we all worked together to get our lives back in order. Just another
example of why I'm proud to live in SW Louisiana, and will always call
it home. I offer my prayers and thoughts to all of you who are still
recovering from Rita, and I hope that you will all join me in praying
for continued protection from these very serious storms in the future.
God bless all of you and God bless SW Louisiana and SE Texas!!!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment