Tropical Weather Discussion...Good Labor Day afternoon! Hermine continues to behave as expected this afternoon. It is not far from the coastline now, and landfall should occur in the overnight hours. The Rio Grande Valley still appears to be the bullseye for this storm, and SW Louisiana will experience the fringe effects of said cyclone. All the latest information on Hermine follows.
Tropical Storm Hermine
4p.m. CDT Monday, September 6, 2010
...Hermine Holds Steady & is on Track for Landfall Overnight in the Rio Grande Valley...
Latitude: 24.5 N
Longitude: 97.0 W
This places the center of Hermine is about 70 miles NE of La Pesca, Mexico and 100 miles SSE of Brownsville, Texas.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph w/ higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall Tuesday morning, and Hermine could become a minimal hurricane before landfall. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 105 miles from the center.
Movement: NNW or 330 degrees @ 15 mph. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Hermine should approach the coast of the Western Gulf of Mexico across the Rio Grande Valley tonight, and move inland early Tuesday in NE Mexico or Deep South Texas. The circulation will continue to move North and spin down over Central Texas on Wednesday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.29" or 992 mb.
Watches/Warnings...There is no change in the earlier watches and warnings. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from La Cruz, Mexico Northward to Port O'Connor, Texas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Rio San Fernando, Mexico Northward to Baffin Bay, Texas.
Rainfall...Rainfall totals of 4-8" are expected across NE Mexico and S Texas with isolated higher amounts in excess of 12" in the higher elevations of Northern Mexico. This will lead to life-threatening flash-floods and mudslides.
Wind...Tropical storm force winds will reach the warning area later today.
Storm surge...Storm surge levels will be in the 2-4' range along and to the North of where the center of Hermine makes landfall Tuesday.
Tornadoes...Isolated tornadoes will be possible across the Rio Grande Valley late tonight and Tuesday, especially to the North (right) of the center of circulation.
Tropical Hermine Discussion 2...There is no change in the forecast philosophy. Hermine continues to be well-organized, and convection continues to explode near the center. It is a good thing that Hermine is nearing landfall because the environment in the Western Gulf of Mexico is one that is very favorable for further development. Hermine would likely become a hurricane it if would have more time over water, but the chances of it reaching minimal hurricane status before landfall in about 6-12 hours still exists. Certainly, Hermine will be a formidable tropical storm at landfall. The official track takes the center of circulation inland close to where Alex made landfall back in June. The SW Gulf of Mexico is a tropical hotbed during prime time, and it is no surprise that this system spun up so quickly. It formed from an old tropical depression in the Eastern Pacific, which crossed over into the SW Gulf of Mexico. This system was also energized by the old frontal boundary which pushed into the Gulf over the weekend. Hermine is being steered around the Western periphery of a large anti-cyclone over the Southeastern U.S. This anti-cyclone will work to steer the system away from SW Louisiana. The forecast is very straightforward. The only question is what will Hermine's intensity be when it strikes the coast later tonight or early Tuesday. A wobble to the left or to the right will help determine where exactly the center of Hermine will come ashore, but the general consensus is somewhere in the Rio Grande Valley. Earlier today, I believed that Hermine would achieve hurricane status, but now it seems as though it may fall just short, but either way it won't change the weather much across SW Louisiana.
Hermine is making steady headway towards the coast, and the swift movement may be the only mitigating factor in keeping Hermine from achieving hurricane status. The strong tropical storm will make its landfall tonight or early Tuesday, and then the steering currents around the stationary high pressure will bring Hermine on a track up through Central Texas, and then towards Dallas, and into Oklahoma through mid-week. Hermine will become an extra-tropical or post-tropical entity at that time. As the system spins down moisture will overspread the Western half of the Gulf Coast. The position of the cyclone will keep SW Louisiana in the moist, NE quadrant of the circulation, thus deep tropical moisture from the Gulf will continue to be transported into the region. This will push rain chances into the likely category through Wednesday. Tuesday will be the most likely day to receive rain across the area. Heavy rain will be possible at times with 1-2" of rain possible at any given location across the forecast area. Rain chances will be highest over SE Texas, and gradually taper down further East into Acadiana. However, rain chances will still be in the likely across the entire area through Wednesday. Rain will be off and on through mid-week, and won't necessarily be limited to the daytime hours in this situation. There are no changes to the watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center earlier. While, rainfall is needed across these parts, and the actual rainfall that occurs from the outer edges of Hermine will be beneficial. No immediate problems are expected from Hermine locally other than the possibility of some minor coastal flooding between now and Tuesday night. No change to this forecast is anticipated. The graphics suite follows.
That's all for now. The next advisory from the National Hurricane Center is slated for 7p.m. CDT, followed by the next complete advisory at 10p.m. CDT. my next update on Hermine will follow the 10p.m. advisory. Look for the regular forecast package later on this evening as well.
Enjoy the rest of your Labor Day evening! God Bless!
-DM-
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