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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Perfect weather! That about sums it up. Tuesday continued what promises to be a prolonged stretch of beautiful weather. High pressure continued to be the dominant synoptic feature. This has provided for a nice switch from the horrific heat we experienced from May-until last week. It was a beautiful day with highs cracking the 80 degree mark, and extremely low humidity values in the 30-40% range. There was not a cloud to be found as the large area of high pressure began to clamp down on the area. The afternoon highs in the lower 80s from Tuesday afternoon will give way to the mid 50s once again first thing this morning. It will quite comfortable indeed, and you should be more than able to give the A/C a rest. A light offshore flow mainly from the N will keep the dry, cool, refreshing air mass in place into Wednesday morning as the high pressure continues to dominate. The readings in the mid 50s on average will be very similar to those of Tuesday morning (it was 54 at LCH Tuesday morning). The coolest locales could be as cool as 50 right at sunrise once again this morning. Today will be another absolutely beautiful day with sunny skies in full effect. A light offshore flow will be maintained with high pressure remains entrenched along the NW Gulf. Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer with mid 80s on average, but it will still be very pleasant with the low humidity and dry air in place across the region. More cool weather is on tap tonight.. However, it will be a bit warmer as air mass modification continues. Upper 50s should suffice for most, but a few lower 60s will be present south of I-10. We'll keep the clear skies in place and winds will virtually be calm. Again, open the windows!
The greatness remains as we head into the latter half of the work week. Thursday will be mark a spectacular end to the month of September. Can you believe we'll be ending the ninth month of the year already? Air mass modification will continue, but that being said it will remain pleasant. High temperatures will creep back into the mid to upper 80s, but it is at this point when we should be about the warmest we will be during this forecast period. High pressure will budge a bit further Eastward, allowing for a brief period of onshore flow by Thursday afternoon. This high pressure will slide Eastward as newly formed Tropical Depression 16, which is currently near Southern Cuba, slides NE across Florida. T.D. 16 should be Tropical Storm Nicole by that time, and the exiting high should build in behind the departing tropical cyclone. However, at the same time, another cold front will be hanging in the balance. This front will be sliding through the Ozarks Thursday during the day, and into our part of the world Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will be very limited as the previous front shoved the deep moisture a long ways down into the Gulf, and the amount of onshore flow will be limited given the position of the tropical cyclone. No rainfall will be expected with the front, and the upper level pattern will favor a venture way down into the Gulf once again. The timing of said front should be in the previously mentioned Thursday night-Friday morning time frame. No more than a few clouds will occur as the boundary passes through. The brief onshore flow will be replaced by a new offshore flow, and an increase in surface winds. This is in response to the building high and the advancing tropical cyclone. There is absolutely no risk of this tropical cyclone coming towards Louisiana thanks to the upper level flow left behind by the nice cold front over the weekend. Overnight lows on Thursday will reach the lower 60s for most. Greatness carries over into Friday as a pattern of CAA returns behind the front. Afternoon highs will be a notch or two cooler than that of Thursday under wall to wall sunshine. It will finally feel comfortable on Friday night for High School Football. Week 5 weather will feature clear skies and temperatures dropping into the 60s before the end of most of the games. It should be around 75 or so at kickoff. By Saturday morning, lows will be in the upper 50s once again setting the stage for a clear and comfortable weekend.
How many times over the years have we seen it be so nice during the week, and then the weekends not turn out so pretty? That will absolutely not be the case this time. The spectacular September weather will have transitioned into outstanding October weather. The fresh area of high pressure will build in nicely across the NW Gulf Coast, and this will set the stage for the great weather. After morning lows in the upper 50s, perfect conditions will be abound Saturday afternoon with lower to middle 80s for highs once again. Humidity values will drop into the 30% range once again with the super dry air in place. Translation=perfect football weather, and perfect weather to be out standing in the outstanding October weather. LSU plays their 3rd straight home game. Kickoff against SEC East foe the Tennessee Volunteers is at 2:30p.m. for the nationally televised contest on CBS. Game time temperatures should evolve like this...83 at kickoff, 82 halftime, 78 game's end. Maybe the Tiger offense will show up this week! As for our boys from Lake Charles, McNeese, they play in a 2p.m. game at Natchitoches. It's their Southland Conference opener for the 2010 season. If you heading to Natchitoches for said game it should be a very similar temperature regime, perhaps a few ticks cooler given its further North, but still should be in the lower 80s at kickoff and halftime, with upper 70s by game's end. Great football weather indeed. Sunday could even be prettier I suppose. We will have a continuation of the wall to wall sunshine and low humidity, but we'll shave off a few degrees on the temperatures. Morning lows will easily sneak down into the mid to upper 50s once again across the forecast area, while afternoon highs Sunday reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. It will be a beautiful day for anything outdoors after church. The Saints play the Carolina Panthers at noon, and are looking to get back on track after their first defeat of the 2010 season. Of course, the game is in the always comfortable Superdome, so no weather worries, but outside for tailgating and what not it will just as super. Take advantage of the greatness and get out and enjoy.
This is shaping up to be one of the longest stretches of near perfect weather that I can recall around these parts. The cloud-free and rain-free forecast is maintained for Monday and Tuesday of next week to round out the forecast period. A series of re-enforcing high pressures will slide down the base of the Rockies keeping the great October weather locked in place. These highs will have origins in Canada, and our temperatures will continue to decline just a bit. It will be even more suitable temperature wise. Morning lows will be well down into the 50s with mid 50s expected for Monday morning, and low to mid 50s for Tuesday morning. Dare I say, some upper 40s may show up across the coldest locations North of Hwy. 190 by Tuesday morning. A nice warm up is expected with the dry airmass in place, and a persistent offshore flow. The early October sun will result in high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday with mid to upper 70s on Tuesday. We have not had a high temperature below 80 degrees at LCH since late April. The Gulf will remain closed for business throughout the forecast period except a short time late Thursday into Friday ahead of the frontal boundary. All tropical systems will be deflected safely away from our part of the world. However, the drought conditions will persist with no rain in sight. I guess that's the only bad side of this weather pattern. We are running a rainfall deficit at Lake Charles now approaching 18" for the entire year 2010, and approaching 5" for the month of September. If the trend continues, we are on pace for one of the driest years on record in SW Louisiana. Models indicate no real hope for rain until sometime around the middle of the month, but even that is shear speculation at this juncture.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 56/86 59/87 61/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 55/86 58/87 60/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 58/87 60/88 62/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 53/85 56/86 58/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 53/85 56/86 58/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 57/86 60/87 63/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
Today...Sunny. High 86. North wind 5-10 mph.
Tonight...Clear. Low 59. Light NE wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 87. North wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 61. East wind becoming SE at 5-10 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 85. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 9/29/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
9-29-10
Low: 56
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Thursday
9-30-10
Low: 59
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
10-1-10
Low: 61
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Saturday
10-2-10
Low: 58
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Sunday
10-3-10
Low: 55
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Monday
10-4-10
Low: 54
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Tuesday
10-5-10
Low: 52
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 5-10
...Tropical Update...
The tropics are alive and kicking once again here in the waning days of September. The tropical wave I mentioned last time we spoke has indeed gotten more organized. This area of disturbed weather has been residing in the Western Caribbean Sea, in the general vicinity of where Matthew formed last week. A Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated the suspect area on Tuesday afternoon, and determined that this area had indeed become better organized. They found enough conclusive evidence to upgrade the system to Tropical Depression 16. Advisories were initiated on Tuesday afternoon, and watches and warnings were issued.
Early this morning, Tropical Depression 16 is over Cuba, and is heading NE. It will pass over a small portion of Cuba, and then re-emerge over water into the Florida Straits later today. T.D. 16 formed from a persistent area of showers and thunderstorms and lower pressures in the Western Caribbean, and is in a favorable environment to strengthen into Tropical Storm Nicole. However, it has changed very little in overall structure and intensity since its inception Tuesday. Strengthening is temporarily impeded this morning as the circulation is over Cuba, but once it reaches the Florida Straits later today a favorable environment will await the tropical cyclone. There is a very short window of opportunity for strengthening to occur because of the interaction with land. T.D. 16 is already being influenced by a sharp trough over the Eastern 2/3 of the United States, judging by its NE motion. This motion will continue through the forecast period, and T.D. 16 will accelerate as it reaches some faster upper level winds closer to the frontal trough over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will carry the tropical entity on a path parallel to the SE United States. This storm will affect portions of Florida and the Carolinas. However, it will remain a weak system, but should strengthen enough to take on the name Nicole.
The storm will quickly approach South Florida this afternoon, and the current forecast track takes it near Miami this evening. A more rapid forward speed is expected to begin tonight, and T.D. 16 or Nicole will be emerging into the Western Atlantic NE of the Miami area. A transition to extratropical or post-tropical will ensue at this time, as the system begins to merge with the frontal zone approaching from the NW. This will end any chance of development of Nicole, but it will create a rather large extratropical storm with heavy rain and gusty winds for the Eastern Seaboard for the latter half of the week. T.D. 16 is not a classic looking tropical system. It is lopsided in nature. Most of the adverse weather is far removed from the center of circulation with not much convection or winds near the actual center. Most of the weather associated with the tropical system are located well to the East and SE of the center. This will put the heaviest rains and strongest winds over Florida sometime later tonight before conditions quickly subside tonight. The future track of T.D. 16 is one that is more than straightforward when observing the actual atmospheric set up over the region. Thankfully, this will be a quick mover for Florida, and more of a nuisance than anything. Some flooding rains will be possible in the Carolinas where heavy rainfall occurred ahead of the advancing cold front on Monday. This system is absolutely no threat to the NW Gulf, and we won't be talking about T.D. 16 for very long at all.
Tropical Depression 16 Advisory
10p.m. Tuesday, September 28, 2010
...T.D. 16 Affecting Cuba Early This Morning...Strengthening to Tropical Storm Nicole and a Direct Hit Over South Florida is Expected Later Today...
Latitude: 21.9 N
Longitude: 81.9 W
This is about 95 miles SSE of Havana, Cuba & 290 miles SSW of Miami, Florida.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and this system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Nicole today as it approaches South Florida. The strongest winds exist in rain bands mainly to the East and SE of the center. This system will merge with a frontal zone by tonight.
Movement: NE or 35 degrees @ 8 mph. This motion is expected to continue today with an increase in forward speed expected over the next 24 hours or so.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.44" or 997 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, The Cuban Provinces from Matanzas Eastward to Ciego de Avila, the NW Bahamas, and from Jupiter Inlet to East Cape Sable, Florida including Florida Bay and the Florida Keys.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida and from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee, Florida.
Rainfall...Rainfall totals of 5-10" will be commonplace over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba. 20" of rain is expected in isolated areas such as the mountainous terrain of Cuba and Jamaica. These rains will lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The Florida Keys and South Florida can expect to receive 4-8" of rainfall from this tropical cyclone.
Wind...Tropical storm conditions will affect the warning area in Florida later today, and the tropical storm conditions over the Caribbean will subside today.
Tornadoes...Isolated tornadoes are possible today over South Florida.
A weak tropical wave in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. It is still well to the East of the Lesser Antilles, and will continue moving further West. There is a small chance for development at this stage of the game, but the environment overhead is favorable for development. Development should be a slow process, and it is doubtful that this will become a tropical system within a day or two.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Thursday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Tonight...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 1:21p.m.
High: 3:26a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.84'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Low: 54
Normal Low: 65
Record Low: 45-1909
High: 85
Normal High: 85
Record High: 96-1998
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.92"
Normal Month to Date: 5.61"
Year to Date: 26.01"
Normal Year to Date: 43.70"
Record: 2.30"- 1913
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 0.29"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 76
High: 91
Rain: Trace
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 57
High: 86
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:05a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:01p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:35a.m.-7:31p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Friday October 1
New Moon- Thursday October 7
Last Quarter- Thursday October 14
Full Moon- Saturday October 23
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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