SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Wednesday was nearly a repeat of Tuesday. There was less in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity as expected. Drier air is working into the area from the East on the edge of the persistent Bermuda High that resides over the SE U.S. At the same time, the former Hermine continues to slowly move Northward over Southern Oklahoma. It is currently situated just SSW of the Oklahoma City Metro area. It made its closest approach to the Dallas-Fort Worth Wednesday. Heavy rains and flash flooding continue from Central Texas into the Great Plains, and this is where the active weather will stay as the remnant moisture moves into the lower Mid West over the next day or two around the periphery of the blocking high. Aside from a few scattered showers and storms across the area today, skies were generally Partly Cloudy on Wednesday, and temperatures responded nicely with highs reaching the lower 90s as per previous forecast. A rich tropical air mass continues to stream in from the Gulf of Mexico on the Eastern periphery of the leftovers of Hermine, and some streamer showers or storms can't be ruled out for the overnight hours, but with the drier air punching into the area, most everything that develops should weaken over land. Thus, only a slight chance of a shower or storm is headlined for tonight. Overnight lows will be right around the mid 70s, slightly above the norm for the second week of September. A light onshore flow will persist.
The forecast for the entire forecast period can pretty much be summed up in a word...persistence! The building (retrograding) high pressure will become the dominant weather feature across the threshold of the forecast area beginning Thursday. The remnants of Hermine will continue to spin to our NW, and become less of a factor over our area as the circulation continues to fill (weaken). A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is maintained simply given the fact that the onshore flow, the leftover deep tropical moisture and daytime heating will be enough to generate a few afternoon storms. The pattern will favor an active sea breeze, and this will produce a few afternoon storms as it works its way inland during the peak heating hours. Seasonable temperatures for the second week of September are to be expected with maximums in the lower 90s for Thursday. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy, and any convection will phase out by nightfall thanks to the loss of daytime heating. A quiet night full of mosquitoes is slated for Thursday night with lows down into the mid 70s across the area. No weather worries for the Saints game either since it's in the comfort of the Superdome. However, the Vikings should be worried about a storm of Black and Gold on the Defense of a Super Bowl title. Who Dat!!! The second weekend of September is shaping up to be like many other September weekends of the past...ideal late summer weather! Friday will be a benign day with Partly Cloudy skies, and just a slight chance of an afternoon cloudburst. The atmospheric set up will basically be the same as it will be on Thursday. Afternoon highs should easily reach the lower 90s once again. Anyone who receives rain will be quite the beneficiary, and all convection will cease and desist before anyone walks onto a football field Friday night. Thumbs up for all area games, shorts and T-shirts should suffice for anyone going to watch your favorite team. Temperatures will be in the 80s during the games, and drop into the mid 70s by sunrise Saturday morning.
As the previous paragraph states, the second full weekend of September will epitomize many before it. A standard late summer pattern will dominate with a carbon copy of the atmospheric conditions from Friday maintaining a stronghold. The persistent Bermuda High will only strengthen its lock on the area, thus keeping rain chances at a bare minimum. It will solely be daytime heating that helps initiate some isolated convection both Saturday and Sunday as any trigger mechanisms will be non-existent across much of the Gulf Coastal Plain. A similar temperature scheme is expected with morning lows remaining smack dab in the middle of the 70s while afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s will be more than obtainable. Once again, the thumbs up is given for all area football games. McNeese and LSU are on the road. The weather for the McNeese-Missouri game up in Columbia, MO is slated for 6p.m., and rather pleasant weather is expected. Partly Cloudy skies with temperatures in the upper 70s are expected at kickoff, while skies should be Clear with a temperature in the upper 60s by game's end, and hopefully an upset victory by the Pokes. As for LSU, they play their second straight road game of the season, this time it's a SEC tilt with SEC East foe Vanderbilt in Nashville. There could be some shower activity around as some of the remnant moisture from Hermine, and an approaching cold front approach the Middle Tennessee area. Expect Mostly Cloudy skies and a 40% chance of some showers or a thunderstorm in the Country Music Capital of the World as the Tigers battle the Commodores at 6p.m. Temperatures will be a bit on the warm side for football anyway, with a kickoff temperature in the upper 80s, and near 80 by the time the final whistle blows. We can watch in the comfort of our living rooms. It will be a dry forecast for whatever plans you may have, so enjoy the weekend.
Next week Monday-Wednesday is more of the same as the pesky persistent pattern holds firm. The Bermuda High continues to dominate the weather around here, and there will still be an ever so slight risk of an afternoon shower or storm mainly with the daily sea breeze during peak heating hours. The Bermuda high pattern is one that favors this. The drier air in the mid and upper levels will help keep rain chances at or below the normal for mid-September. We need the rain, but unfortunately this pattern will not bring us the type of rain we need. With no large scale weather systems on the horizon, it appears that what the models have been showing since the beginning of the month will in fact come to fruition, that is a prolonged dry pattern. We are just over 14.50" in the hole with respect to rainfall for the year 2010. Partly Cloudy skies with lots of humidity and just the aforementioned slight chance of a shower or storm is expected each day Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures will not be unlike those of the previous days with lows remaining in the middle 70s while highs reach the lower 90s yet again. Heat indices will top out right near the 100 degree mark this entire forecast period given the high humidity values. There is no sign of any significant cold front just yet, but there could be a back door front approaching the area near the end of the forecast period. However, this remains a stretch at this point, so this is not reflected in the actual forecast for the time being. The first real cold front of the season will happen sooner or later, hopefully sooner rather than later.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 75/93 76/94 76/94 20 30 10 20 0 20
LFT 76/94 76/93 75/94 20 30 10 20 0 20
BPT 77/93 76/94 76/94 20 30 10 20 0 20
AEX 73/94 73/95 74/96 20 20 10 20 0 20
POE 73/94 73/85 74/96 20 20 10 20 0 20
ARA 77/92 76/92 76/93 20 30 10 20 0 20
Today...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10 mph.
Tonight...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light SSE wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 94. SSE wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light SSE wind.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of a scattered afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 94. SSE wind 10 mph.
Thursday 9/9/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 75
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 7
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 9
H.I.: 95
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 102
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8
H.I.: 97
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
9-9-10
Low: 75
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
9-10-10
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
9-11-10
9 Year Anniversary of 9-11 Terrorist Attacks
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
9-12-10
Low: 75
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Monday
9-13-10
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8-13
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
9-14-10
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8-13
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-15-10
Low: 75
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 8-13
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropical Update...
The remnants of Hermine continue to spin in the Red River Valley. It is currently approaching the Oklahoma City Metro Area. Heavy rain and flooding will continue from portions of Texas into the Great Plains and Mid West over the next few days.
Just as soon as we hit a bit of a lull in the activity, the season's 9th named storm has formed. It is another Cape Verde Storm. This wave which emerged off the coast of the Africa a few days ago, and has quickly closed off into an organized tropical system. It skipped the depression stage, and has gone right to a tropical storm. The name is Igor. This actually replaces Ivan from the 2004 list. Ivan devastated the Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores, AL into the Florida Panhandle. It is far too early to tell what Igor will do, if it will even have any impact on the United States. However, the environment over the open waters of the Atlantic are very conducive for further development, and Igor should reach hurricane status in a few days likely over the weekend. Igor is being steered Westward to the South of the large Eastern Atlantic high that has persisted for much of the summer over the region. This will keep Igor on a due West heading through the forecast period, and Igor will remain over the open waters through Monday. It will still be to the East of the Leeward Islands at that time. Beyond 5 days there is much uncertainty in the future of Igor. A weakness is forecast to develop in the large Atlantic Subtropical ridge, and result in a turn towards the WNW. This could embark Igor on an out to sea journey, but there is an equal chance that Igor will continue to move further West and approach the Caribbean Sea later next week. It remains to be seen, there is plenty of time to watch Igor and its future implications on any land areas. I see no reason to believe that Igor won't reach hurricane status, and will have the potential for major hurricane status next week. Igor may struggle to get better organized for the next 24 hours or so, but after that a steady state strengthening trend should commence. The details on Igor follow.
Tropical Storm Igor Advisory
10p.m. CDT Wednesday, September 8, 2010
...Igor Slowly Organizing Over the Open Atlantic...
Latitude: 13.8 N
Longitude: 24.8 W
This is about 70 miles to the SW of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Little strengthening is expected through Thursday, but steady strengthening is expected to begin on Friday. Igor could reach hurricane status over the weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 50 miles from the center.
Movement: West or 275 degrees @ 2 mph. Igor has been meandering about the last few hours, but a general Westward movement between 5-10 mph is expected to commence Thursday. On this track, the storm will gradually move away from the Cape Verde Islands.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.68" or 1005 mb.
Watches/Warnings...It doesn't happen often, but portions of the Cape Verde Islands are under a Tropical Storm Watch. This includes Maio, Sao Tiago, Fogo, & Brava.
Winds...Some tropical storm force winds could impact portions of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands through Thursday.
Rainfall...1-3" of rain is expected over the Cape Verde Islands.
Elsewhere in the tropics, there are 3 other suspect areas at the moment. One is the former Gaston which is currently located to the South of Hispaniola. This system is struggling to hold together as it moves off to the West between 15-20 mph. No development is expected through Friday.
Secondly, perhaps the tropical wave that is most favorable for development at this juncture is located near the Southern portion of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are favorable for this system to slowly develop over the next few days as it moves slowly off to the West. This system stands about a 20% chance of developing through Friday.
Lastly, a weak low pressure system just off the West coast of Africa shows no sign of tropical development in the Western Cape Verde Islands. It will likely become absorbed by Igor within the next 24 hours as it continues to move Westward.
Elsewhere, no additional tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Have a great Thursday & God bless!
-DM-
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