Click below to watch today's video forecast discussion, and be sure to scroll down for the text block.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...About this time 5 years ago today, it was a very loud and noisy morning across the entire forecast area. It sounded as though an airplane was sitting on top of SW Louisiana. This was no airplane, this was Hurricane Rita. The worst of Rita was experienced during the early morning hours of September 24. It is much quieter across the forecast area this morning as there are no tropical systems anywhere near SW Louisiana, we have newly formed Matthew in the Caribbean, but even that is safely away from here. More on Matthew as well as Lisa in the tropics. Also, look more on Rita throughout the day. Be sure to scroll down for the first of many posts strictly dedicated to the remembrance of Rita. Now, let's fast forward to the current September 24. The pattern of persistence that we have exhausted this summer continues. Thursday was another day in a string of above normal temperature, high humidity days. Some scattered showers and storms dotted the landscape, but no widespread rain occurred across a very drought stricken region. All convective activity faded away as the sun went down, and a calm and quiet start to Friday will be granted. Clear skies and above normal temperatures will prevail once again this morning. Expect the morning low to be in the lower 70s. Temperatures will warm up into the lower 90s yet again as the same synoptic set up holds firm for one more day. High pressure anchored along the Gulf Coast States will be the dominating weather feature. There is also an added feature of a weak upper level over the Gulf waters. The present flow across the Gulf will steer this ULL towards the NW Gulf Coast, and it should approach SE Texas and SW Louisiana today. This will help spark off the typical thermally enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. The pattern will still favor just scattered activity, and most of us will once again be left hung out to dry. The onshore flow will favor the genesis of the typical sea breeze. Expect Partly Cloudy skies and about a 30% chance for the aforementioned afternoon convection. All convection ceases in time for kickoff of all High School Football games. It will be warm and humid with temperatures generally in the 80s for the games. A light onshore flow will persist.
The advertised changes are still on track for this weekend. There is overwhelming uniformity now with the models with respect to the timing of the cold front. It will move into the state on Saturday, and push into and through SW Louisiana on Sunday. As the front approaches, moisture levels will increase, and the controlling high will erode. This in turn, will allow rain chances to increase for Saturday, and more so for Sunday. However, Saturday's shower and thunderstorm activity will still strictly be on a scattered basis, just more of it than normal with moisture pooling ahead of the front. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected, with rain chances in the chance category. Activity will be most likely in the afternoon hours as daytime heating factors into the equation. Temperatures will once again be above normal with morning lows in the lower to middle 70s, and highs around the 90 degree threshold. It will remain very humid with a moist air mass in place ahead of the front. The question remains will it rain on the ball games Saturday. I can't guarantee a completely dry forecast for either McNeese or LSU, but rain chances will fall off a bit after dark. I have to keep the mention of a shower or storm in the forecast for the overnight hours on Saturday given the advancing frontal boundary. Temperatures will be in the 80s for most of the game with some 70s possible before the end of the LSU game. LSU plays at 8 p.m. vs. West Virginia, while McNeese plays at 7p.m. vs. Cal Poly. I would suggest bringing your rain gear with you as you head out to any tailgate parties before the game on Saturday, just in case. It is near impossible to pinpoint who will and who won't see rain, but in this pattern anyone stands the chance. The actual cold front will slide through the forecast area with ease on Sunday. As the boundary moves into our very moisture laden atmosphere, showers and thunderstorms will develop in the convergence zone ahead of the front. This could set the stage for numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Rain and storms will be possible at any point during the day until the frontal passage occurs in the afternoon. I will leave the prospects of rain unchanged, inheriting the same pops as last forecast package. Mostly Cloudy skies are expected with the increased chance for showers and storms. Sunday will finally begin the trend of cooler temperatures, but not because of the front. It will be the enhanced cloud cover and rainfall that translate to cooler temps. The morning lows will still be in the lower 70s, while afternoon highs decrease to the upper 80s. You might want to bring an umbrella with you to church, because in this case rainfall will not be limited to the afternoon hours. The timing of the front suggested by models looks to be from early to mid-afternoon Sunday. This means it may very well pass through during the Saints game. Will anyone notice if it's raining outside as the Saints battle the Falcons at noon? No weather issues for that game beings as such it's in the Superdome. Drier and cooler air filters in Sunday evening behind the front. Rain chances come to an end, and skies will clear. A refreshing offshore wind pattern will become established as well as high pressure builds in behind the front. Overnight lows heading into Monday will cool off into the mid 60s on average with lower 60s across the Northern half of the forecast area.
Once we get past the weekend, a benign weather regime will take us through the rest of the forecast period. Strong high pressure builds in behind the front which will be positioned over the coastal waters. An upper level low in the wake of the front will develop over the Ozarks and Mid West, and the orientation of this feature will help keep cooler air filtering into the region through the period. Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures are expected Monday-Thursday. It will still be warm in the afternoons with highs into the 80s, but the overall trend will be for below normal to near normal maximums. Morning lows will be well down into the 60s through the forecast period, with the possibility of mid to upper 50s across the Northern portions of the forecast area, for instance, Alexandria. Along I-10, lower 60s will feel great here in Lake Charles to Lafayette and over to Beaumont. Humidity values will be below the 40% range each day as the dry, cooler, fall air mass dominates the weather. While the front will usher in fall across these parts, this is a double blessing for us as it will also help to block the newly formed Tropical Storm Matthew from moving our way. Matthew currently has his sites set on Central America, and could decay over land down there with heavy rain for days causing massive flooding, or it could be deflected to the NE by the trough and threaten Florida late next week. Either scenario, takes Matthew safely away from SW Louisiana. We can finally look forward to fall, and hopefully we can put an end to our tropical season around here as well as this front comes through. It is also nice to report that the cool, dry air will hang around for several days as opposed to just one or two this time around. Only a slow modification of temperatures is expected by the end of next week. An overall dry pattern will continue into October, with the prospects of an even stronger front just beyond this forecast period. We need rain, and hopefully that will come this weekend. It won't alleviate the drought situation by any means, but any rain is welcome. The cooler weather will be very much welcomed after an awful summer.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 74/92 75/91 73/89 0 30 0 40 30 60
LFT 75/92 75/91 74/88 0 30 0 40 30 60
BPT 74/92 75/92 74/89 0 30 0 40 30 60
AEX 72/94 73/93 71/87 0 30 0 40 30 60
POE 72/94 73/93 71/88 0 30 0 40 30 60
ARA 76/92 75/92 75/89 0 30 0 40 30 60
Today...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tonight..Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light SSE wind.
Saturday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 73. South wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. High 89. SSW wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday 9/24/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 80
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 6
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 95
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 13
H.I.: 100
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 9
H.I.: 95
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
9-24-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Rita
Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
U.V.: 10- High
Saturday
9-25-10
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Sunday
9-26-10
Low: 73
High: 89
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 8- High
Monday
9-27-10
Low: 67
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High
Tuesday
9-28-10
Low: 61
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High
Wednesday
9-29-10
Low: 60
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High
Thursday
9-30-10
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High
...Tropical Update...
The tropics remain active, and that's no surprise for the date of September 24. We know this full hand as we were enduring the very worst of Mother Nature at this very moment 5 years ago. Hurricane Rita was very close to making landfall early on the morning of September 24. Rita made landfall as a category 3 with 120 mph winds. You can see more on Rita in the preceding post, and look for much more on Rita later today. Let's fast forward to the present day September 24. We have two named storms at present. Tropical Storm Lisa continues to be of little consequence in the Far Eastern Atlantic, while Tropical Storm Matthew has formed. Matthew formed from the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea that has persisted for several days. It was officially upgraded from Invest 95L to a Tropical Depression early Thursday afternoon, and given the official Tropical Storm Matthew designation at the 4p.m. advisory on Thursday. Matthew will be the storm of consequence for the next several days, but it still remains to be seen if this cyclone will have any impact on the United States.
Lisa...The previously mentioned hostile environment in the vicinity of Lisa continues to affect the minimal tropical storm. The storm's intensity and structure changed little on Thursday, and it remains a weak tropical storm this morning. It is harmlessly churning in the Far Eastern Atlantic, and exhibits very little motion at present. Lisa has a very small window of opportunity to strengthen, and this will be between now and early Saturday. Lisa will be moving into an environment that is even more hostile than the current one over the weekend. The synoptic features controlling Lisa are an upper level low to the West of the circulation, an approaching mid-latitude trough, and a large subtropical ridge to its NE. This will create increasing SW shear over the weekend, and the shear will envelop the circulation of Lisa. Drier air in the mid levels and cooler SSTs will also factor into the equation. The low-level circulation will ingest the dry air as well, and this will ultimately lead to the demise of Lisa. Dissipation should occur by early next week, and this will likely be the last time I mention Lisa.
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory
10p.m. Thursday, September 23, 2010
...Lisa Losing Punch in the Eastern Atlantic...Transition to Post-Tropical to Occur in a Few Days...
Latitude: 18.1 N
Longitude: 28.1 W
This is 305 miles WNW of the Cape Verde Islands.
Maximum Sustained Wind: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Lisa may temporarily strengthen today, but will weaken to tropical depression status this weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 35 miles from the center.
Movement: NNE or 20 degrees @ 5 mph. A turn to the N and NNW is expected today along with an increase in forward speed.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.68" or 1005 mb.
Matthew...The season's 13th named storm formed on Thursday. It formed from the much advertised tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea. Matthew will be quite influential, and may lead to quite a complex forecast down the road if the cyclone ventures into the Gulf of Mexico. Matthew continues to mature this morning, and the environment in the Caribbean Sea is one that is very favorable for development. I have said many times in recent days, that this area is a hotbed for development this time of year. Matthew is a prime example of this. All indications are that Matthew will continue to intensify, and I see no reason to believe otherwise. Matthew is getting better organized as we speak with a nice burst of convection very near the center of circulation, and Matthew could be poised to undergo a period of rapid intensification. Matthew should become a hurricane late today or Saturday. Matthew is moving nearly due West around the Southern periphery of a large anti-cyclone over the SE United States that extends into the Gulf of Mexico. This Westward motion will bring Matthew towards the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras in Central America within the next 24 hours. The forecast confidence is high into the weekend, but in the medium and long range, the forecast becomes much more complex.
It is only the interaction with land that will create any weakening through the period, and the current forecast suggests that Matthew will move inland near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras, and move across the Northern portion of Honduras before moving over water once again by Saturday evening. The Westward motion will transition to a more WNW to NW motion this weekend as a weakness in the large mid-latitude anti-cyclone develops, and a trough over the United States advances towards the Gulf of Mexico. Matthew should move inland yet again over the country of Belize as a hurricane Sunday, and then the steering currents may temporarily collapse as the cyclone moves over relatively flat terrain in Northern Belize and Southern Mexico. Matthew is making good headway off to the West at this time, but the forward motion will decrease over the weekend. Obviously, weakening will occur over land as Matthew will be cut off from its fuel source. Models are in near perfect unanimity through the first 48 hours or so, but beyond this time frame there are plenty of model discrepancies as to the future track of Matthew. There are hint of a very complex situation developing as well. In short, here are the possible scenarios for Matthew. Matthew moves inland over Central America mainly Belize into Southern Mexico and spins down eventually decaying early next week. A life-threatening flash flood event will unfold across the region. If this scenario occurs, models suggest the area of origin for Matthew to remain active with a second tropical cyclone forming, and ejecting off to the N and NE towards the SE U.S. out ahead of the advancing trough. Scenario two would have Matthew skirting the coast of the Caribbean from near Belize to near Cozumel and Cancun as a hurricane, and then evacuating Northward and eventually to the NE meaning Matthew would be affected by the current advancing trough. This would take Matthew towards Florida sometime next week perhaps as a hurricane. While it is unclear exactly what will happen with Matthew, it seems very unlikely that Matthew will pose any threat to SW Louisiana with the cold front moving through over the weekend. Matthew will steadily strengthen until it interacts with land over Central America. The future track of Mathew will become more certain with time.
Tropical Storm Matthew Advisory
1a.m. Friday, September 24, 2010
...Matthew Marches Towards Central America...
Latitude: 14.2 N
Longitude: 79.3 W
This is about 275 miles E of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua & about 260 miles ESE of Cabo Gracais A Dios on the border of Nicaragua and Honduras.
Maximum Sustained Wind: 45 mph w/ higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast to continue through today, and Matthew could become a hurricane sometime later today or tonight before reaching the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 45 miles from the center.
Movement: W or 275 @ 17 mph. This general motion should continue through Saturday, and on this track this will take the center of Matthew near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras later today, and over Northern Honduras Saturday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.68" or 1005 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to Limon, Honduras including the offshore islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Belize.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Limon, Honduras Westward to the Guatemala Border. A Watch or Warning could be issued for Guatemala later today.
The next complete advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4a.m. CDT.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tonight...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
..Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 9:59a.m. 10:15p.m.
High: 3:03a.m. 4:34p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.92'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Low: 73
Normal Low: 67
Record Low: 49-1982
High: 93
Normal High: 86
Record High: 97-1910
Rainfall
Today: 0.01"
Month to Date: 0.92"
Normal Month to Date: 4.69"
Year to Date: 26.01"
Normal Year to Date: 42.78"
Record: 2.54"- 2005
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
Light Rain
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: Trace
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 75
High: 83
Rain: 2.54"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 76
High: 90
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 7:02a.m.
Sunset Friday: 7:07p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:32a.m.-7:37p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Friday October 1
New Moon- Thursday October 7
Last Quarter- Thursday October 14
Full Moon- Saturday October 23
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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