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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The humidity is back with a vengeance. It returned in full force Thursday as a long fetch onshore flow containing rich tropical air enveloped the region from the South. This came as surface high pressure shifted to our East, and as Hurricane Karl moves towards Mexico in the Southern Gulf. The outer extremity of the circulation around Karl allowed for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area Thursday afternoon, but coverage was sparse inland with more numerous activity nearest the coast where the deepest moisture exists. Temperatures reached the low to mid 90s as expected, and with the high humidity in place heat indices exceeded 100 at times making for a miserably hot late summer afternoon. All convection came to end during the evening, and all is quiet on the SW Louisiana front as we head into Friday. Friday will dawn with Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy skies. Temperatures will radiate down from the mid 90s of Thursday afternoon to the mid 70s around sunrise Friday. A very light onshore flow will prevail. You won't even realize there's a strengthening hurricane moving through the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Thankfully, Karl will be a non-issue for our area. It will make its closest approach to SW Louisiana during the day Friday as it churns towards landfall late Friday or early Saturday. The strengthening cyclone will suppress most of the available moisture over the Gulf of Mexico into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. It will all be wrapped into Karl. Thus, a standard late summer pattern is on tap. Partly Cloudy skies with a just a very slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm is expected. Daytime heating and the enhanced low-level moisture to the North of Karl will keep the possibility of a few strays in the forecast. Most of us will stay dry across drought-stricken SW Louisiana. Temperatures will climb back into the middle 90s once again. Heat indices will likely exceed 100 during the afternoon. In short, it will be another rather uneventful day across our part of the world. Any convective activity fades away by the evening hours, and no weather problems are expected for High School Football. It will be a very warm and humid Friday evening with temperatures in the 80s throughout the games. Prepare to sweat. Teams please use extreme caution, and drink plenty of water to avoid cramps, heat exhaustion, and dehydration. Good luck to all area teams!
Hurricane Karl moves inland into Mexico by early Saturday, and it stands to be a significant storm for that area. While Karl effects Mexico, we will have no weather worries here this weekend. It will continue to be strictly a temperature forecast as the pattern of persistence remains entrenched. An isolated storm or two is possible during the afternoon on both Saturday and Sunday, however the prospects of such an occurrence are too negligible to mention in the forecast, therefore, no rain chances will be highlighted. The controlling ridge that has been in place will only strengthen on the backside of landfalling Karl, and this will only help to put the kibosh on convective activity. Temperatures will not in any way be dissimilar to that of Friday. Morning lows will be in the mid 70s for Saturday, and mid 90s for highs. A little bit cooler air may works its way into the area Sunday as some drier air takes over at the surface in the wake of Karl. This could drop lows back into the lower 70s, while highs remain in the middle 90s on average. This will continue the trend of above normal temperatures. The below normal precipitation trend will continue as well. Any outdoor plans that you may have will be just fine, and a dry forecast is slated for the LSU-Mississippi State game at 6p.m. on Saturday in Tiger Stadium. Temperatures will be in the 90s during the afternoon for tailgating, and down into the 80s during the game. 95,000 people should be prepared to sweat in your purple and gold T-shirts and shorts. Geaux Tigers!
Looking into next week, the entire period Monday-Thursday will continue to be the same song and same dance. Unfortunately, this will mean a continuation of a late summer pattern even as head into the official start of Fall. The autumnal equinox occurs on Thursday. It will feel more like the summer solstice. The strong anti-cyclone that resides over the Gulf Coastal Plain has no plans to go anywhere at this juncture. It may orient itself in different locations each day through the week, but it will control the weather through the period. No more than a 20% chance of thermally induced thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon Monday-Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the lower 70s for lows, and lower 90s for highs. Plenty of low-level moisture will remain in place resulting in high humidity and dew points. This will generate heat indices at or just above the century mark during the peak heating hours each afternoon. There is some indication that the controlling ridge will begin to break down or shift further East into the Western Atlantic for the second half of the work week. If this happens, then rain chances would increase a bit, to perhaps offer a glimmer of hope for some much needed rainfall. This is not currently reflected in the current forecast package, but this trend will be monitored over the weekend. The ridge will decay at some point, and this will allow a pattern change to occur. There are signs of a more significant pattern shift by the end of the month, and this will hopefully usher in fall across the area. Models diverge, but do suggest a significant pattern shift. Some long range models suggest a nice cold front before the end of the month, others suggest a hurricane in the Gulf. It is way too early to be specific about what exactly will happen. Let's cheer for fall!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 75/95 75/96 74/94 0 10 0 10 0 10
LFT 75/95 74/95 73/94 0 10 0 10 0 10
BPT 76/96 75/96 74/95 0 10 0 10 0 10
AEX 71/96 70/97 68/96 0 10 0 10 0 10
POE 72/96 70/96 69/95 0 10 0 10 0 10
ARA 76/94 75/94 75/93 0 10 0 10 0 10
Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 95. East wind 10 mph. Heat index values 100-105 in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 75. Light East wind.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 96. ESE wind 10 mph. Heat index values 100-105 in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...Clear. Low 74. Light SE wind.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 94. SSE wind 10 mph.
Friday 9/17/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 2
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5
H.I.: 90
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 7
H.I.: 100
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: E 9
H.I.: 103
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 6
H.I.: 100
9p.m.
Weather Mostly Clear
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
9-17-10
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: E 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
9-18-10
Low: 75
High: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: ESE 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
9-19-10
Low: 74
High: 94
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10
Monday
9-20-10
Low: 73
High: 93
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
9-21-10
Low: 72
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 10- High
Wednesday
9-22-10
Low: 72
High: 91
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8-13
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High
Thursday
9-23-10
Autumnal Equinox
High: 90
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High
...Tropical Update...
The tropics remain very active as we near week's end. Here at mid-September it is not uncommon to have three hurricanes at once, and that is exactly what we have tonight. Each one of these tropical cyclones is at a different stage, but they are hurricanes nonetheless. Igor remains a major hurricane over the open waters of the Atlantic, and will threaten Bermuda in the days ahead. Julia is beginning to die a slow death in the Eastern Atlantic, and will be no threat to anyone. Karl is going through a period of rapid intensification as it treks Westward towards the coast of Old Mexico in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. It has strengthened from a minimal tropical storm about 24 hours ago all the way up to a category 2 hurricane tonight. This storm will not pose a threat to anyone along the U.S. portion of the Gulf Coast, but will make quite an impact across Mexico. Time to take a closer look at each of the three tropical entities.
Igor...Igor remains a major hurricane over the open Atlantic. There is no change in the forecast philosophy, and there is overwhelming unanimity with the forecast models in regards to the future track of Igor. Igor continues to be steered by a large Atlantic subtropical ridge. It will continue to move around the Western portion of the subtropical ridge into the weekend. Igor will remain in a very favorable, warm water, low shear environment for the next few days. This will support the idea that some strengthening could occur into the weekend, but since Igor is already a large and powerful hurricane determining how much strengthening that will occur is difficult. Igor will undergo periodic eyewall replacement cycles. These ERC's will generate fluctuations in intensity as well. Igor's motion to the NW will continue through the weekend as the steering currents around the anti-cyclone keep it on that heading. It is moving NW around 9-10 mph at this time, but as the steering currents strengthen over the weekend will cause Igor to accelerate. The threat to Bermuda continues. It is still yet to be determined how strong Igor will be as it nears Bermuda by Sunday night. However, it seems increasingly likely that the island nation will be significantly impacted by a major hurricane. Igor will slowly begin bending towards the North by that time, and it is a wobble one way or the other that will ultimately dictate what side of this hurricane will affect Bermuda. The current forecast suggests a direct hit on the British territory. Surely, by this time Igor, will be in a weakening state as it will have move into some cooler waters N of 30 N. A more hostile environment exists in the region around Bermuda. Igor should remain a category 4 storm for the next couple of days before the aforementioned weakening phase begins. After affecting Bermuda Sunday, Igor will accelerate to the NE ahead of an advancing trough. Weakening will continue, and Igor will transition to an extratropical entity by the first of next week. The National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island of Bermuda.
Hurricane Igor Advisory
1a.m. CDT Friday, September 17, 2010
...Igor Moving NW Towards Bermuda...
Latitude: 22.2 N
Longitude: 59.2 W
This is 375 miles NE of the Leeward Islands & 780 miles SSE of Bermuda.
Maximum Sustained Wind: 125 mph w/ higher gusts. This makes Igor a category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible over the just few days, but Igor should remain a major hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 105 miles from the eye, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to about 295 miles from the eye.
Movement: NW or 305 degrees @ 9 mph. This motion should continue into the weekend. An increase in forward speed will occur through the weekend as well. On this track, Igor will be approaching Bermuda on Sunday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 27.71" or 937 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Bermuda.
Wind...Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach Bermuda by late Saturday, with hurricane conditions expected on Sunday.
Surf...Large swells will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas through the weekend. Dangerous surf conditions will occur in Bermuda, and only worsen with time as Igor approaches Sunday. Swells will effect the East Coast, and produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Julia...Julia is barely hanging on as a hurricane early this morning. Julia has begun to come under the influence of some wind shear generated by the circulation around the much larger Igor. Julia has also accelerated in forward motion as it rounds the periphery of a large Atlantic subtropical ridge to its East. It is likely that Julia will be downgraded later today back a tropical storm. It is possible that the weakening trend will be temporarily halted over the weekend as a somewhat more favorable environment exists for Julia. Overall, Julia will continue to gradually weaken through the forecast period. Wind shear will increase next week as Julia moves further North into colder water, and this will enhance the weakening trend. Julia is a threat to no one but shipping interests in the Eastern Atlantic. The transition to an extra-tropical or post-tropical system should be complete by the end of the 5 day forecast period.
Hurricane Julia Advisory
10p.m. Thursday, September 16, 2010
...Julia Weakening Over the Open Atlantic...
Latitude: 23.5 N
Longitude: 42.9 W
This places the eye of Julia about 1,375 miles SW of the Azores.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 mph w/ higher gusts- category 1. Weakening is forecast for the next couple of days, and Julia will likely become a tropical storm later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 35 miles from the eye, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 115 miles from the eye.
Movement: WNW or 290 degrees @ 24 mph. A turn towards the NW and a reduction in forward speed are expected later today, with a gradual turn to the NNW on Saturday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.03" or 983 mb.
Karl...Karl has gone through a rapid intensification cycle which continues early this morning. When I last updated early Thursday morning, Karl was a minimal tropical storm that had just emerged into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Karl quickly became a hurricane by the middle of the day Thursday, and the strengthening trend continues. Karl is now a category 2 storm w/ 105 mph winds. The atmospheric conditions over the Bay of Campeche are ideal for development, and Karl is surely taking advantage of the situation. Very warm sea-surface temperatures exist in this area, and it is also an area where wind shear is nearly non-existent. Karl is being steered due Westward thanks to the large anti-cyclone over the Northern Gulf Coast. The ridge is very strong, and Karl will continue its Westward journey into the weekend. This will carry the rapidly strengthening Karl into Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. A general motion around 10 mph is expected through today. The forecast philosophy for Karl has not and will not change. It is likely now that Karl will reach major hurricane status before making landfall in Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. The official forecast reflects this idea. No impacts will be felt from Karl in the United States. Karl will begin to weaken upon making landfall, and as it spins down it will become a heavy rain producer. Karl will produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the mountainous areas of Mexico.
Hurricane Karl Advisory
1a.m. CDT Friday, September 17, 2010
...Karl Continues to Strengthen...Should Make Landfall in Mexico as a Major Hurricane Within 24 Hours...
Latitude: 19.7 N
Longitude: 94.8W
This places the eye of Hurricane Karl about 95 miles ENE of Veracruz, Mexico and 190 miles ESE of Tuxpan, Mexico.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 105 mph w/ higher gusts- category 2. Additional strengthening is expected today, and Karl should become a major hurricane before making landfall tonight along the Mexican coast. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 15 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 105 miles from the center.
Movement: West or 270 @ 9 mph. This Westward motion will continue through landfall and until dissipation over land on Sunday. On this track, the core of Hurricane Karl will reach the coast of Mexico within 24-36 hours.
Minimum Central Pressure: 28.56" or 967 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Veracruz to Cabo Rojo. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Cabo Rojo to La Cruz. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Cabo Rojo to La Cruz and from Veracruz to El Lagarto.
Storm Surge...A dangerous storm surge of 6-9' will occur along and to the North of where the eye makes landfall, and this will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Wind...Tropical storm conditions will ensue later this morning, and hurricane conditions are to be expected by tonight in the hurricane warning area.
Rainfall...Karl will produce 5-10" of rain across the Central and Southern Mexican Gulf Coast Region. Higher amounts to near 15" will likely occur over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. This will lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday. The next complete advisory on each system will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4a.m. CDT Friday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today....East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet then 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 6:57a.m. 6:07p.m.
High: 2:02a.m. 10:19a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
166.09'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Low: 74
Normal Low: 69
Record Low: 53-1902
High: 94
Normal High: 88
Record High: 99-2004
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.86"
Normal Month to Date: 3.28"
Year to Date: 25.95"
Normal Year to Date: 41.37"
Record: 3.94"- 1975
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 77
High: 94
Rain: 0.02"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 63
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:58a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:16p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:28a.m.-7:46p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Thursday September 23
Last Quarter- Friday October 1
New Moon- Thursday October 7
Last Quarter- Thursday October 14
Have a Great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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