Click below for the video blog discussion for Wednesday. Be sure to scroll down for the text form.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Aren't you just a little tired of summer? I know I am. Maybe we shouldn't complain because 5 years ago today we were bracing for the storm of a lifetime. Hurricane Rita was a monster category 5 storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico exactly 5 years ago this morning, and had its sights set on SW Louisiana. See more on Rita below the tropical update, and be sure to check back for much much more in the days ahead. Now, let's focus on the current weather. Tuesday was yet another day of above normal heat and high humidity. The typical late summer pattern is reluctant to go away. High pressure continues to be the dominant weather feature across the Gulf Coast states. It is anchored over Alabama, but is ridging into our area. Here, on the large subtropical ridge's Western flank, it has been hot and humid with an overall dry pattern in place. A few thermally induced storms have been existent during the peak heating hours, but overall a significant drought is ongoing. The anchored high pressure has resulted in drier air in the mid and upper levels, thus resulting in capping on the atmosphere. Therefore, rain chances have been no more than 20% for the last several days. The Tuesday regime reflected a continuance of the last few days. Tuesday morning minimums were in the lower 70s, and afternoon maximums reached the lower 90s for most locales. The overnight hours will be quiet with Mostly Clear skies and a bright moon above. Overnight lows will be back down into the lower 70s on average.
The pattern of persistence will prevail through Friday. This will take us right on into the official start of fall. It will continue to feel like late summer here, but will certainly not be near as hot as it could be. Record heat affected the areas with highs exceeding 100 in the days leading up to Rita. Partly Cloudy skies will be the dominant weather condition for Wednesday through Friday, with still just a slight mention of only thermally induced shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Lack of trigger mechanism will help keep much of the convective activity suppressed. The controlling high will remain in place across the Gulf Coast States; we will remain on the Western flank of this anti-cyclone. Temperatures will continue to run above normal each day with highs back into the low end of the 90s, while morning lows remain in the low to mid 70s across our part of the world. The persistent onshore flow will continue as well keeping the favorable pattern for an afternoon sea breeze in place. In short, the forecast will remain unchanged through Friday. No weather worries are expected for this week's round of High School Football games be it Thursday or Friday. Temperatures will be in the 80s during the games, with very humid conditions in place.
Changes may begin to take shape this weekend. Changes for the better, we hope! A late September trough is developing in the Northern Plains, and this trough will be digging to the ESE into the weekend. The associated cold front will dive to the SE as well, and be moving into the state as we get into the weekend. The Partly Cloudy, warm, and humid weather will continue. At the same time, the dominating ridge will begin to erode over our area to allow the aforementioned front the opportunity to move into our vicinity. This is the trigger mechanism we need to produce some much needed rainfall across the area, however, there are many factors to throw into the equation before we can get excited about the prospects of significant rainfall. The idea of significant rainfall doesn't seem likely at this juncture. While we will have ample surface moisture and the trigger mechanism in place, drier air in the mid and upper levels will keep rain chances from being too robust. Models aren't overly aggressive on convective activity at this time, but certainly with the front en route we can raise rain chances a bit. There is still some question as to how much of an impact this front will have on our area, but it should at least be close enough to raise the prospects of rain. At this time, the front should clear the area on Sunday. The chance of showers and storms will continue for Sunday ahead of the front, but drier air will take over by late in the day Sunday ending all threat of showers and storms. I couldn't rule out a shower or storm or two Saturday night for the ball games, but for the most part dry weather should be in place with the greatest risk of rain coming during the afternoon hours Saturday. Temperatures will be in the 80s to the upper 70s for the McNeese game, and follow very closely for the LSU game as well. McNeese takes on Cal Poly at 7p.m. while LSU hosts West Virginia at 8p.m. Right now, I will put all the eggs in the basket that the front will come through Sunday, although it is still not a certainty. The models are more adamant about this idea today. Weekend temperatures ahead of the cool front will continue to run in the low to mid 70s for lows, and lower 90s for highs.
Our first real taste of fall may be in store to round out the forecast period on Monday and Tuesday of next week. This should come in the wake of the advertised cold front on Sunday. Mostly Sunny skies will prevail these two days with much lower humidity, and temperatures trending to near normal or slightly below. Given the fact that this is still 6-7 days out, the shear magnitude of the front is still uncertain. Some of the forecast models suggest temperatures as cool as the lower 60s in the Lake area, but I feel it is not yet prudent to reflect this trend. I will forecast lows in the mid 60s for now, and highs will finally drop below the 90 degree threshold. Expect mid to upper 80s for highs both Monday and Tuesday. No mention of rain will be expected as this time due to strong high pressure building in behind what should be the first true cold front of the season. The long, awaited arrival of fine, fair, fall, football weather will be great, but it doesn't bode well for any significant rainfall across our landscape. In the long range, the pleasant weather that replaces our long, seemingly endless summer will continue through the middle portion of next week. Another front may approach the region around the 1st of October, but we have plenty of time to investigate this solution further.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 73/92 73/91 74/92 10 20 0 20 0 20
LFT 72/93 73/92 74/91 10 20 0 20 0 20
BPT 75/93 75/91 75/91 10 20 0 20 0 20
AEX 70/94 71/93 71/92 10 20 0 20 0 20
POE 71/94 71/93 71/92 10 20 0 20 0 20
ARA 76/91 75/91 75/90 10 20 0 20 0 20
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 92. SSE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 73. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 91. SSE wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 74. Light SE wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 92. SSE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday 9/22/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 86
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8
H.I.: 94
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 100
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 87
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 8
H.I.: 97
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
9-22-10
Low: 73
High: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 97-102
U.V.: 10- High
Thursday
9-23-10
Autumnal Equinox
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 97-102
U.V.: 10- High
Friday
9-24-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Rita
Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High
Saturday
9-25-10
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 8-13
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High
Sunday
9-26-10
Low: 72
High: 89
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE/SSW 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 9- High
Monday
9-27-10
Low: 67
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 10- High
Tuesday
9-28-10
Low: 64
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
H.I.: 83-88
U.V.: 10- High
...Tropical Update...
The tropics remain very active as usual here into late September now. This was certainly the case 5 years ago, as the storm of our lifetime, a storm like no other, was bearing down on SW Louisiana. Rita was a category 5 in the middle of the Gulf exactly 5 years ago today. More on Rita to follow. Fast forward to today now, we have some entities to discuss. The final advisory on Hurricane Igor has been issued. It is over the North Atlantic transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. It affected Bermuda over the weekend as a category 1 storm, and brushed by the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday. The newest customer on the menu of named systems is Tropical Storm Lisa. Lisa is over the open waters of the Eastern Atlantic, and is absolutely no threat to land. An area of disturbed weather is getting better organized in the Caribbean Sea, and will have the potential to develop over the next few days as it moves to the WNW, and it could approach the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Here's more details on each system.
Igor...Igor has become an extratropical entity. The transition was completed on Tuesday. Igor moved past Bermuda over the weekend as a category 1 storm, and glanced by the Canadian Maritimes as a transitioning tropical system, a category 1 hurricane officially, on Tuesday. It will remain a very strong post-tropical system as it moves between portions of NE Canada and Greenland for the next few days. This is the last mention of Igor. The last official advisory on Igor was written by the National Hurricane Center at 4p.m. CDT Tuesday. Since the storm is officially no longer classified a tropical system, I will not post any graphics associated with Igor. The last set of coordinates is included.
Hurricane Igor Final Advisory
4p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 21, 2010
...Igor Becomes Extratropical Entity Over the Northern Atlantic...
Latitude: 49.3 N
Longitude: 51.7 W
This was about 125 miles NNE of St. John's, Newfoundland.
Maximum Sustained Wind: 80 mph/ w higher gusts.
Movement: NNE or 25 degrees @ 39 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 28.05" or 950 mb.
Lisa...Tropical Storm Lisa is no threat to anyone but shipping interests in the Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is moving very little, and has not strengthened much at all in the last 24 hours since becoming classified Monday. The cyclone is a victim of weak steering currents. It is trapped between the predominant Eastern Atlantic/Western Africa subtropical ridge and and large, amplified trough over the Eastern Atlantic waters. Lisa is moving slowly to the NE this morning, but should better steering currents should become established within the next 24-48 hours, and Lisa should begin to turn move to the NW. The ridge will intensify in a couple of days or so, and this will help the steering currents. While the erratic motion leads to model inconsistencies, it seems inevitable that Lisa will remain safely away from any land masses. Lisa's environment is favorable for further strengthening over the next few days especially by the end of the work week as the ridge magnifies to the North of Lisa. The possibility of Lisa reaching hurricane status is on the table, and is reflected in the official forecast package from the National Hurricane Center. There is no need to say much about Lisa here because it is no threat to any landmass. Lisa is the season's 11th named storm, and 13th tropical cyclone overall.
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory
Tropical Storm Lisa 10p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 21, 2010
...Lisa a Long Way Away...Nearly Stationary in the Far Eastern Atlantic...
Latitude: 18.2 N
Longitude: 31.3 W
This places the center of Tropical Storm Lisa about 505 miles WNW of the Cape Verde Islands.
Maximum Sustained Wind: 45 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 45 miles from the center.
Movement: NE or 40 degrees @ 2 mph. A slow Northward motion is expected to commence within the next 24 hours, and will continue for the next couple of days.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.59" or 1002 mb.
Closer to home, there is an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea which continues to show signs of organization. It seems poised to become our next tropical entity within a day or two. The current outlook from the National Hurricane Center is a 50% chance of development. Models have initialized on the system, but I stress that it is hard to determine where this system will go without an actual classified system. All forecast models do suggest this area will develop, and I see no reason to believe that it won't. The environs over the Caribbean Sea are very conducive for development. The Western Caribbean in particular is a hotbed for development this time of year. Heavy rainfall will occur for the next several days across the Windward Islands, the Netherlands Antilles, and the Northern coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. The steering currents for what is dubbed as Invest 95L will carry this system towards portions of Central America, Belize, or the Yucatan Peninsula over the next few days. From there, most models suggest this system will enter the Gulf of Mexico, but there are a plethora of solutions beyond that point. It is not prudent at this time to wax eloquent on the future prognostication of Invest 95L. Should this system indeed reach the Gulf over the weekend, conditions will be favorable for development, but at the same time a frontal trough will be approaching the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to a very complex forecast with regards to the future track of Invest 95L. The next name on the list is Matthew. Stay tuned!
Elsewhere, no tropical storm formation is expected through Thursday.
...Remembering Rita...
This special section is the beginning of a look back at Hurricane Rita.
Let's start with the evolution of the storm.
-Saturday, September 17, 2005 10p.m.- T.D. 18 formed to the East of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
-Sunday, September 18, 2005 4p.m- T.D. 18 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Rita between the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas.
Rita continued to steadily strengthen as she neared South Florida and the Keys. Watches and Warnings were issued for this area as well as portions of Cuba on the 18th.
-Tuesday, September 20, 2005 10a.m. - Rita strengthens into a hurricane as it approaches the Florida Straits. Rita began a period of rapid intensification as atmospheric conditions were ideal over the SE Gulf of Mexico.
-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 1a.m.- Rita became a major hurricane with category 3 winds of 115 mph as it moved into the SE Gulf of Mexico to the West of Key West, FL.
-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 4p.m.- Hurricane Rita becomes a catastrophic category 5 hurricane w/ 165 mph winds over the Central Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Watches were issued for the Texas and Louisiana coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana. At this time, the official forecast track still took the eye of Rita inland somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Evacuations began voluntarily at first for many coastal locations.
-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 7p.m.- Rita becomes the third strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin (stronger than Katrina). Maximum sustained winds were near 165 mph w/ higher gusts, and the barometric pressure had dropped to an incredible 26.55" or 898 mb.
-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 10p.m.- Rita maxes out in intensity with winds at an incredible 175 mph. Wind gusts to near 200 mph were reported. Hurricane hunter aircraft record a gust over 230 mph at flight level. At this time, Rita began to wobble more to the NW, and this would become the eventual motion of direction in the overnight hours. Model guidance shifted the forecast track to between Galveston and Vermilion Bay with most models clustered near Sabine Pass. The NHC still pegged Galveston for landfall at this time.
-Thursday, September 22, 2005 4a.m.- The Hurricane Watch was extended Eastward from Cameron to Intracoastal City due to the model shift, and turn to the NW by Rita. Winds remained in the category 5 range at this time. For the first time in history, a mandatory evacuation for all of Calcasieu Parish was called. Local officials urged everyone to leave the area as Rita was bearing down on the NW Gulf of Mexico.
-Thursday, September 22, 2005 10a.m.- A Hurricane Warning is issued from Port O'Connor, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana. Evacuations begin full throttle. Rita leveled off during the morning of the 22nd, and still maintained category 5 intensity with 165 mph winds at this advisory.
-Thursday, September 22, 2005 10p.m.- Rita barrels its way towards SW Louisiana. Rita is a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds.
This takes us up to date. The time line will continue tomorrow. Also, tomorrow as we continue our look back at Rita, I will discuss in depth the evolution of Rita, and why it was so strong, and why it came here. I will also include the official advisory from when Rita was at peak intensity, as well as the forecast track at the actual time of peak intensity.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday & Thursday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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