Click below to see today's edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text block format of the forecast.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Thursday was another warm and pleasant day after a refreshing start. High temperatures exceeded the forecast values once again, with many areas seeing some lower 90s across the forecast area. This came after morning lows ranged from the mid 50s to around 60. Once again, nary a cloud was to be found as a large anti-cyclone remained the dominant weather feature across the Western Gulf. This kept the offshore flow already in place going. The continued offshore flow and super dry air in place resulted in another day of much below normal humidity values, and even the lower 90s felt quite pleasant as we closed out the month of September. It is only fitting that September ends on a dry note, beings that less than one inch of rain fell officially at Lake Charles. The calmness continues as October dawns this morning. The clear skies remain in place, but a few clouds are possible this morning as a reinforcing cold front makes its way into and through the forecast area. Since the Gulf of Mexico remains absolutely closed for business with no return flow present, the absence of moisture will result in a dry frontal passage despite the presence of the actual trigger mechanism. As the front nears the area, the associated pressure differential will result in a slight increase in surface winds. This combined with the naturally modifying atmosphere will result in a bit warmer start to the day Friday, but it will still feel very pleasant. Lows should range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across the forecast area. The front will be crossing the forecast area between 3a.m. and 9a.m. Friday. The boundary will push into the coastal waters in the morning hours. The fresh air will continue with another building high. NNW winds in the 10-15 mph range will continue as high pressure builds in behind the front. High temperatures will easily reach the 80s once again given full sunshine across the area, but with modest CAA ongoing they will be shaved back a few degrees from the past couple of days. Average highs should be in the mid 80s for early October, and that is exactly where we will be today. Daytime heating and CAA will fight a battle today, and this time of year with the dry air in place daytime heating often wins out. It can offset a CAA pattern at this point, even though a cooler air mass is taking over. At the same time, that we are enjoying fabulous weather, the Eastern Seaboard is a mess at this time with deep tropical moisture enveloping the region as the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole, and a stalled frontal boundary, and an additional surface low affect the region. There has been monumental flooding in several areas, and it's most severe in coastal North Carolina. The city of Wilmington has had over 21" of rain since the event began on Sunday. This has certainly been, and will continue to be a newsworthy event. Thoughts and prayers are with those people affected by this natural disaster.
Greatness is the word for the weekend. It promises to be perfect football weather for any High School Football game in our great state tonight. Clear skies and light Northerly winds will be present, and temperatures will be very comfortable. Expect a kickoff temperature here in the Lake Area around 78, and if you're heading up to Shreveport for the Barbe's big game against perennial state power, Evangel, expect a temperature at kickoff around 76. If should be in the low to mid 70s at halftime depending on where you are, and readings will range from around 64 to 68 from North to South by game's end. Enjoy the games, and good luck to all area teams. Watching a football game is a great way to enjoy the fantastic fall weather. Plan something for the great outdoors this weekend, because after being trapped inside at work all week, you will want to take advantage of the Outstanding October weather that we have in store. High pressure will continue to move down the Front Range of the Rockies through the Great Plains and Ozarks, ridging into our area. This will keep the fresh Northerly breezes going across the area with nothing but sunshine and very low humidity values across the area both Saturday and Sunday. The orientation of the high and the upper level pattern will allow for temperatures to gradual cool a few degrees each day. Saturday morning lows will range from the low to mid 50s across the area, and Sunday morning lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area. Afternoon highs will play out like this...lower 80s on Saturday, near 80 on Sunday. Football weather will be magnificent Saturday. This round of college football Saturday will be awesome here in the Bayou State. LSU plays Tennessee in Tiger Stadium at 2:30p.m. and the weather will be a winner, let's hope the Tigers will be too. Game time temperature should be between 80 and 83, and nearly the same for halftime, but temps should be in the upper 70s by the time the game ends around 6 or so. The same can be said for the McNeese-Northwestern game up in beautiful Natchitoches. Game time is 2p.m. and the temp at kickoff should be between 79 and 82, and again essentially the same around halftime, while temperatures fall off to between 75 and 78 by game's end. Good luck to the Cowboys and Tigers! Sunday will be fantastic for anything outdoors after church. The Saints play the Panthers at noon in the Superdome, and of course there will be weather issues in the Dome (hopefully no kicking issues for the Saints either). If you heading to New Orleans for the game, expect perfect driving weather, although you will want the sunglasses to shield your eyes from the sun. The string of great weather will reach its 7th straight day as we close out the first weekend of October. The coolest night since April is on tap for Sunday night into Monday morning as some 40s show up across a good portion of the forecast area. Even upper 40s are possible here in the Lake area. I will reflect that in the official forecast as high pressure will be anchored right over East Texas by that time to allow for superb radiational cooling conditions. The coolest locales across our part of the world could wind up as cool as 44 or 45 by sunrise Monday. Some of y'all might want to grab a jacket for the first time this season. Can you smell the gumbo yet?
The Outstanding October weather rolls over into the first full work week of the month. A series of high pressures moving down the base of the Rockies will keep the surge of cool, Canadian coming, and keep the Gulf of Mexico totally shut down from affecting our weather. Only a slow moderation of temperatures is expected as we head towards the mid week period. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 70s on average, and Tuesday morning lows will once again venture into the mid to upper 40s with the exception of coastal locales where low to mid 50s will suffice due to the usual marine influence. The crystal clear, low humidity days will prevail as high pressure remains the prevailing weather feature across the Gulf South. Low temperatures make a slight uptick by Wednesday back into the lower 50s, and lower to middle 50s look good for Thursday as natural modification of the air mass takes shape. Remember, the Gulf will remain shut down through the forecast period, so there will be no presence of a return flow to modify this air mass. High temperatures will also increase slightly in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame with lower 80s back in the mix for those days. It'll still feel great. There is absolutely no hint of any rain, and more than likely not even any clouds in the offing through this forecast period. This weather is great, but we desperately need rain with worsening drought conditions across the area. Additional parishes are issuing parishwide burn bans, and I would expect more to follow suit in the days ahead. The long range models still show a prolonged dry and cool pattern remaining in place for the foreseeable future with reinforcements every few days with no rain. The models hint at a deep longwave trough around mid-month that may produce some rather chilly weather with lows well down into the 40s around here. It is definitely shaping up to be a cool autumn across much of the country. The first frost/light freeze of the season is expected this weekend across portions of the Great Lake States. While this pattern is not favorable for any significant rainfall, it will also protect us from any additional tropical systems that develop in the coming weeks. Get out and enjoy the weather, and give the A/C a break!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 60/86 54/82 52/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 59/86 55/83 52/79 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 61/87 56/83 53/81 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 55/85 52/81 48/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 55/85 52/81 49/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 61/87 56/83 53/81 0 0 0 0 0 0
Today...Sunny. High 86. North wind 10-15 mph.
Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 54. North wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 82. North wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night..Clear and Cool. Low 52. Light North wind.
Sunday...Sunny. High 80. North wind 5-10 mph.
Friday 10/1/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 12
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 12
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
10-1-10
Low: 62
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Saturday
10-2-10
Low: 54
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Sunday
10-3-10
Low: 52
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Monday
10-4-10
Low: 49
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Tuesday
10-5-10
Low: 48
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Wednesday
10-6-10
Low: 51
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Thursday
10-7-10
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
...Tropical Update...
There are no named storms to discuss at present as we head into the month of October. We have two areas which we are watching for the potential for development. Nothing is of an imminent nature. The former Tropical Storm Nicole is part of an elongated low pressure system that continues to bring heavy rain and gusty winds across much of the Eastern Seaboard. Life-threatening monumental flooding is occurring in portions of North Carolina where over 20" of rain has fallen since Sunday. Pressures remain low in the Caribbean stretching into portions of the Atlantic where the two suspect areas reside. Showers and thunderstorms have persisted for the last few days in these areas. Models have initialized one system located to the East of the Lesser Antilles, and it has been dubbed Invest 97L. This system has the best chance of the two to develop over the next few days. It is in an area that continues to be favorable for development. The system will move to the W or WNW between 15-20 mph into the weekend. The National Hurricane Center currently suggests that there is a medium chance (30%) for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days.
The second area of interest continues to be hot spot residing in the Western Caribbean. It lies in the general vicinity of where Tropical Storms Matthew and Nicole formed. It is an elongated area of shower and thunderstorm activity that stretches from portions of Central America in the general vicinity of Honduras across the Caribbean to Hispaniola. This is typically a favorable area for development during the month of October. There is a very slight potential for further development, but there is currently no sign of significant organization. Heavy rainfall will occur over the Caribbean from Honduras to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. The National Hurricane Center only gives this area about a 10% chance of development over the next couple of days. Forecast models do suggest some tropical development in this area next week, so we'll just have to see what transpires. Models have not initialized an actual low pressure system just yet in the aforementioned area. Again, nothing will threaten our corner of the world. The odds continue to increase that we will make it through the 2010 Hurricane Season virtually unscathed here.
Elsewhere, no other tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet building to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet.
Saturday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 3:43p.m.
High: 12:22a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.77'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Low: 60
Normal Low: 65
Record Low: 45-1909
High: 91
Normal High: 85
Record High: 97-1929
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.92"
Normal Month to Date: 5.95"
Year to Date: 26.01"
Normal Year to Date: 44.04"
Record: 1.62"- 1934
Sensible Weather Observed Yesterday:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 60
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 65
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 52
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 7:06a.m.
Sunset Friday: 6:58p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:36a.m.-7:28p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Friday October 1
New Moon- Thursday October 7
Last Quarter- Thursday October 14
Full Moon- Saturday October 23
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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