Be sure to watch the video blog below, and then scroll through the text block for complete details on everything. The video blog will always be at the top of the blog entry unless otherwise specified.
Video Weather Discussion:
Also, yesterday, September 13, marked the anniversary of Hurricanes Ike and Humberto. Humberto affected the area on September 13, 2007 and Ike followed on September 13, 2008. Ike was by far the more severe of these two hurricanes, but each one left its mark on SW Louisiana. Here is a brief history of each storm.
First, let's look at Humberto. Humberto formed on Wednesday, September 12, 2007 in the Western Gulf of Mexico. It formed from an old frontal boundary. An area of showers and thunderstorms persisted and developed an area of low pressure. This low garnered tropical characteristics, and was classified as a tropical depression on the morning of the 12th. Humberto rapidly deepened as it approached land, this is somewhat unusual for a small storm, and because of the friction generated by the interaction with land. Humberto made landfall near High Island, TX just after 2a.m. on September 13 with 85 mph winds. Minor wind damage occurred across the area. The eye of Humberto passed very close to Lake Charles entering Calcasieu Parish from SE Texas. The eye passed directly between Vinton and DeQuincy.
Hurricane Ike...Ike was a classic long-track Cape Verde storm. While we were bracing for Gustav on Labor Day, September 1, Ike was forming in the Far Eastern Atlantic. Ike strengthened into a major hurricane and ravaged much of the Caribbean over the course of the next few days. Ike was a very strong category 4 storm as it approached Cuba. Ike battered Cuba, and weakened considerably to a minimal hurricane as it entered the Gulf of Mexico on September 9. Ike moved slowly nearly meandering at times. Ike slowly re-gained steam over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Ike continued lumbering towards the NW Gulf of Mexico coast, and intensified into a strong category 2 storm with 110 mph winds as it neared landfall. Ike was expected to come ashore as a category 3 initially, but it never re-gained major hurricane status. Ike made landfall on the Eastern end of Galveston Bay near Crystal Beach early on Saturday, September 13. Ike produced a large evacuation of the Gulf coast hot on the heels of Gustav a little over a week before. The large size of Ike and general slow motion generated a massive storm surge. Even though the storm was at category 2 intensity, a category 4 storm surge was realized along and to the right of the eye. Much of this was experienced across the SW Louisiana coastline. The 12-15' surge wiped out many areas which were still being rebuilt from Hurricane Rita. The storm surge from Ike produced the highest water levels ever in the city of Lake Charles with over 1/2 of the city being flooded. Wind damage was minimal across SW Louisiana, but more extensive in SE Texas. The worst of the winds were experienced from Galveston and Houston towards Beaumont. Sustained hurricane force winds were experienced in these areas, while Lake Charles and most of immediate SW Louisiana experienced hurricane force gusts. Wind gusts near 80 mph were reported at Lake Charles. Ike was the 5th storm in 3 years to affect SW Louisiana, and the 3rd storm in 2008 alone.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...After some much needed rainfall across much of the area on Sunday, a mostly drier and somewhat cooler air mass has taken over. This comes in the wake of a weak cool front which was the culprit for the showers and storms on Sunday. Dry air and high pressure at all levels will dominate the weather across the forecast area for the next couple of days. The air was certainly noticeably drier on this Monday, but it wasn't necessarily any cooler. There is still a high sun angle here in the middle of September, and the atmosphere can heat up pretty quickly. Temperatures reached the low to mid 90s across the forecast area with the drier air in place, and an ample amount of sunshine. All shower and thunderstorm activity remained out over the Gulf waters ahead of the advancing frontal boundary. Drier air filtered into the entire forecast area throughout the day, and dew points fell off nicely from the mid 70s on Sunday afternoon to the mid 50s to around 60 this afternoon. Remember, the lower the dew point, the drier the air. A light offshore flow prevails at the surface with surface high pressure in place. The breath of fresh air will become most noticeable overnight into early Tuesday morning. The lower dew points and drier air will translate into cooler temperatures. Certainly, it won't be anything Earth-shattering, but we'll take whatever we can get this time of year. Low temperatures will range from around 60 in the coolest locations to around 70 at the coast, this equates to an average of the mid 60s. This is much closer to the seasonable value for this time of year.
The period of Tuesday-Wednesday will be a quiet period as high pressure remains anchored over the forecast area. This anti-cyclone will begin to break down by Wednesday, and that is when conditions will change once again. Until then, expect Mostly Sunny skies and pleasantly hot weather. The heat index will not be a factor with the significantly drier air in place. Afternoon humidity values will be in the 40% range, and this will make temperatures in the 90s feel much more tolerable than usual. Temperatures should easily eclipse the 90 degree threshold, with maximums reaching the lower 90s. This is slightly above the normal of the upper 80s for this time of year, but again every little bit helps this time of year. No mention of showers and thunderstorms is warranted for Tuesday given the much drier air, and the controlling anti-cyclone acting as a suppression mechanism. A light offshore flow will be maintained through the daylight hours of Tuesday. The drier air in place will hover into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning providing for another pleasant mid-September night. Wednesday morning minimums should be a tad warmer as the high begins losing some of its luster. Expect said minimums to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s on average across the forecast area. Humidity slowly begins to increase on Wednesday as the high shifts away from the area. The anomalous dry air will begin to give way to the more prominent humidity at this time. However, I would still use the term pleasantly hot for Wednesday as it will take a little bit of time for the real muggy air to creep back into the area. Mostly Sunny skies and temperatures reaching the lower 90s yet again are to be expected. No mention of shower and thunderstorm activity is cited for Wednesday either. A light onshore flow will commence during the day on Wednesday.
The humidity returns with a vengeance for the latter half of the week. This means a return of typical late summer weather is in the offing. The typical sea breeze will become an active feature once again by Thursday. Partly Cloudy skies will be the weather condition as a general rule, but some folks will get some much needed rainfall later in the day as scattered convection develops. Temperatures will be back to above normal levels for both lows and highs. Morning temperatures will start in the low to mid 70s while they max out in the lower 90s in the afternoon. As the moisture in the low-levels of the atmosphere is returning, the mid and upper levels will remain significantly drier air. This will keep rain chances in the slight category at least for Thursday. It appears at this time, the best chance for showers and thunderstorms over the next 7 days will come on Friday. An influx of deep tropical moisture is expected to envelop the forecast area at this time. This surge will be coming from the tropical wave that is currently spinning in the Caribbean. This system will be moving to the WNW towards the Southern Gulf by the end of the week, and will have the potential to develop further into a classified tropical system. However, no matter what happens, we won't see more than just an increase in moisture. Direct impacts from this system will remain safely away from our part of the world thanks to the controlling high pressure. There is no sign of any breakdown in the ridge at least in the mid and upper levels. How much this system develops will have an impact on how high our rain chances will go. If a more developed system forms, then our rain chances will remain near normal for this time of year, if it remains an open wave then our rain chances will be higher than usual because the attendant tropical moisture will be spread out over a wider area. For now, it is not prudent to reflect much more than an average chance for scattered convection mainly during peak heating hours on Friday. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected, and a similar temperature scheme to Thursday are expected. An onshore flow will be prominent given the influx of tropical moisture, and the orientation of the aforementioned tropical wave. All convection should go astray at or around sunset at the latest. Dry weather is expected at this time for the 3rd installment of High School Football in 2010, however, it will very warm and humid with temperatures in the 80s during the games.
The weekend through Monday of next week will offer a continuance of a late summer, mid-September pattern. Partly Cloudy and a slight chance of afternoon convection will be in store each day with a similar temperature regime. Lows will be in the lower 70s for the most part, while highs average right around 90 or so. Rain chances will be influenced early in the weekend by the developments of the Southern Gulf. Again, no direct impact from any tropical system is expected, but rain chances could be elevated again on Saturday depending on what materializes in that region. The possible tropical system should be a quick mover, such that by Sunday it will have move inland into Northern Mexico, and have no impact on our region. The onshore flow around the Western periphery of the controlling Bermuda High will keep the chance of a shower or storm en vogue. A select few will receive some much needed rainfall at this time, and there is no way to pinpoint exactly where it will rain, and it is doubtful that rainfall will be evenly distributed in this synoptic pattern. Essentially, the same atmosphere ingredients will be plausible for Monday. Low-level moisture values will continue to be high, but the persistence of the Bermuda high will continue to shield us from any tropical activity. It is the sea breeze alone during peak heating hours that may provide some relief. Football weather for Saturday should be just fine. It will be hot and humid with just a very small chance of a shower or storm at Tiger Stadium as LSU hosts Mississippi State. It is the first home game of the season for LSU, and the second conference game. McNeese is idle this week. There is no sign of a cold front during this forecast period, however, there could be one looming just beyond this forecast period, we shall see. Given, the shear quietide of this persistent weather pattern, we can't complain too much, considering what we have endured during this time of year during year's past. A prime example of that is just two and three years ago, when Hurricane Ike and Humberto, effected the region, respectively. We are also on the heels of the most infamous hurricane to ever strike this part of the world...Hurricane Rita. It is hard to believe we will soon mark the 5 year anniversary of this monster storm. That date is coming up next Friday. The autumnal equinox is rapidly approaching as well. We have a few more weeks on the prime time hurricane hot seat, and also we are nearing the climatalogically favorable time for the first real cold front to make its journey into SW Louisiana. Bring it on!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 66/92 68/91 73/91 0 0 0 0 0 20
LFT 66/93 67/92 73/91 0 0 0 0 0 20
BPT 68/92 70/93 74/92 0 0 0 0 0 20
AEX 60/94 64/94 68/93 0 0 0 0 0 20
POE 61/94 65/94 69/93 0 0 0 0 0 20
ARA 67/92 69/91 74/91 0 0 0 0 0 20
Today...Sunny. High 92. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Tonight...Clear. Low 68. Light East wind.
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 91. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 73. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday 9/14/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, Refreshing
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 7
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 9
H.I.: 92
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
9-14-10
Low: 66
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-15-10
Low: 68
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
9-16-10
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 10- High
Friday
9-17-10
High: 90
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Saturday
9-18-10
Low: 76
High: 91
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Sunday
9-19-10
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High
Monday
9-20-10
High: 90
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High
....Tropical Update...
The tropics are very much active. However, there is nothing for us along to the Gulf Coast to worry about. The date of September 13 in years past has been a very active day across our part of the world as far as the tropics are concerned. Never was that more evident than on this date 2 and 3 years ago. In 2007, Hurricane Humberto affected the area, and in 2008, the far more severe Hurricane Ike plagued the area. More information on these infamous tropical entities is forthcoming, but first let's keep it current and take a look at what's happening at present.
Hurricane Igor is a monster, aptly named. Igor became the strongest Atlantic basin hurricane since Felix in 2007. Igor is where he belongs over the open waters of the Atlantic. Igor is still a major category 4 storm tonight, but was on the verge of becoming a category 5 during the day on Monday. Igor has the classic hurricane look on satellite representation. Igor is right smack dab in the middle of the Atlantic, and is being steered due Westward on the Southern flank of the large, persistent Atlantic subtropical ridge. This ridge will keep Igor on the due Westward heading for the next day or two. The cyclone is in an area where the environment is extremely conducive for development, as judging by the rapid deepening (intensification) that Igor underwent over the weekend. Conditions remain ripe for development, but it appears that because of its intensity that Igor may have leveled off. It is still within the realm of possibility that Igor could obtain category 5 status at some point over the next few days, but it is more likely that it will undergo fluctuations in intensity. This is the case tonight as an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) is ongoing. This has caused some weakening of the maximum sustained winds, but Igor remains a fierce entity. Igor's future track is pretty certain, and there is no change in the forecast philosophy from previous discussions and advisories. The large subtropical ridge will continue to impact Igor. The hurricane will continue its Westward journey effecting no more than just shipping interests through the next few days. By the latter half of the week, Igor will be approaching a break in the ridge, and this will influence the storm causing it to make a NW jog, with this motion expected to be in place for the rest of the forecast period and beyond into the weekend.
The prognosticated track for Igor should keep it safely away from the Lesser Antilles and all the Caribbean Island nations. The only effects there will be increased seas and waves by the middle of the week. No threat to the Gulf of Mexico or the East Coast appears likely at this time, however, there is a very real threat that Igor will bring hurricane conditions to Bermuda over the weekend. However, Igor should begin to weaken as it begins to gain latitude on the Western flank of the subtropical ridge. Some cooler waters and some wind shear out ahead of an advancing trough will create less favorable environs for Igor. Exactly what intensity and what side of Bermuda Igor will pass on remains to be seen. By the time Igor approaches Bermuda, the cyclone should begin veering to the N and eventually NE depending on the set up of the trough. Either way, Igor's closest approach or direct hit to Bermuda should be sometime over the weekend, likely Saturday night into Sunday. The current forecast suggests that Igor will have dropped below major hurricane status by that time. It is certainly possible that Igor will pass by Bermuda as a major hurricane; the forecast is subject to further revisions over the next few days. Igor will be picked up by the advancing trough and continue its journey as a North Atlantic fish storm late in the weekend, and eventually move into the hurricane graveyard by early next week.
Hurricane Igor Advisory
10p.m. Monday. September 13, 2010
...Major Hurricane Igor Weakens a Bit Over Open Waters of Atlantic...Maintains Category 4 Intensity...
Latitude: 17.7 N
Longitude: 51.2 W
This is 785 miles E of the Northern Leeward Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 140 mph w/ higher gusts. Winds have decreased from 150 mph earlier in the day Monday, but Igor remains a very large category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the next few days, but Igor will remain a major hurricane through at least mid-week. Hurricane force winds extend out to 50 miles from the eye, while tropical storm force winds extend out to 195 miles from the center.
Movement: W or 275 degrees @ 9 mph. This general speed with a turn toward the WNW is expected on Tuesday followed by a turn to the NW on Wednesday. Igor will remain over the open waters of the Atlantic through the forecast period.
Minimum Central Pressure: 27.67" or 937 mb.
Julia...The season's 10th named storm formed over the weekend. Its origin is from a potent tropical wave which emerged off the West coast of Africa at the end of last week. It quickly became Tropical Storm Julia over the weekend, and is poised to become a hurricane within a day or two. The storm is steadily intensifying as it trudges Westward. It is another in a seemingly endless series of Cape Verde storms this season. It too, like its predecessor, Igor, is in a very favorable environment for further strengthening, and that is certainly indicated by the official forecast. There is no need to wax eloquent about Julia as the forecast is very straightforward. Julia is almost certain to remain a fish storm as it will soon turn to the WNW and NW in between a ridge and trough. There is a rather strong trough to the NE of Julia, and the same ridge which is steering Igor further to the West. The flow in between these two synoptic features will generate the advertised Northward component to the cyclone. A general WNW to NW motion is expected thereafter as the storm moves between the weather features, and remains safely away from any landmasses. The conditions will remain favorable for further strengthening for the next few days, but as Julia begins to gain more latitude weakening will ensue before the end of the forecast period. This weakening trend will be because of the cyclone's interaction with cooler waters over the Central and Northern Atlantic. Another impinging factor down the road for Julia's development will be its closer proximity to Igor. Igor is so large that it is possible Julia will interact with the NE winds around the periphery of the circulation from Igor. This will create wind shear in Julia's general vicinity, thus further aided in the weakening process.
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory
10p.m. CDT Monday, September 13, 2010
...Julia Continues to Strengthen Over Far Eastern Atlantic...No Threat to Land...Should Become a Hurricane in a Day or Two...
Latitude: 15.6 N
Longitude: 28.0 W
This is 245 miles WNW of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph w/ higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days, and Julia should become a hurricane within a day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend out to 80 miles from the center.
Movement: WNW or 295 degrees @ 13 mph. A turn to the NW and a slight decrease in forward speed is expected to commence Tuesday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.53" or 1000 mb.
Finally, we continue to observe another tropical wave in the Central Caribbean Sea. This is the same tropical wave I mentioned briefly over the weekend. It continues to have the potential to close off into our next tropical depression. The environment over the Caribbean is highly favorable for further development. However, this system doesn't appear to be that much more organized than it was 24 hours ago. The system is moving to the WNW, and will be moving into the NW Caribbean Sea over the next 24 hours. It will be approaching the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, and will have the potential for further development until that time. Its interaction with land over the Yucatan Peninsula will inhibit the developmental potential, but the system should move into the Bay of Campeche by week's end. It will also have the potential for further development at this time. It is too soon to say how strong this system will be, and exactly where it will track. Most forecast models do suggest further strengthening into our next classified tropical system. The model consistency is excellent with the forecast track as well. This system should remain well to our South with an eventual landfall progged for Old Mexico over the weekend. A large anti-cyclone over the Gulf Coast states will offer protection for this area, and keep whatever this system turns into on a Westerly trajectory.
Elsewhere, no additional tropical cyclone formation is expected through Wednesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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