Thursday, September 23, 2010

Fall Officially Begins, but It Still Feels Like Summer...Continuing to Remember Rita...

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Click below to watch today's video forecast discussion, and be sure to scroll down for the text block.





SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Wednesday was the last official day of summer 2010, and the official start of fall occurred last night. It may be fall on the astronomical calender, but someone forgot to tell Mother Nature, at least in these parts. Our standard late summer scenario continues. It's been all about persistence for the last several days, and this will continue. Wednesday featured a typical sea breeze pattern with spotty convective activity from late morning through the late afternoon hours across the forecast area. Temperatures were pegged exactly today with a low in the lower to middle 70s (73 at LCH), and lower 90s for highs (92 at LCH). A large subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Gulf Coast states. It's center is across Dixie with near record heat occurring across that area. We are on the western fringe of the anti-cyclonic flow, and this has put us in the favorable set up for a few scattered storms each afternoon. Dry air in the mid and upper levels continues to suppress a lot of vertical growth with the daily crop of cumulus clouds, and the overall dry weather continues. Drought conditions continue to worsen across the area, with a rainfall deficit quickly approaching 17" for the year 2010 at Lake Charles. A nearly 4" deficit exists for the month of September. No chance of putting a dent in the rainfall deficit in the short term as Thursday will dawn with Clear skies and another humid and warm morning. No mention of rain will exist overnight, and a light onshore flow will prevail. The lower 90 maximums of Wednesday will bottom out in a very similar range once again with low to mid 70s a good call for the entire forecast area.

This pesky pattern of persistence will prevail for the remainder of the work week. A carbon copy of Wednesday is slated for today with Partly Cloudy skies in place, and some spotty thermally induced shower or thunderstorm activity mainly between lunch time and dinner time. The predominant SE flow will continue, and set up a favorable sea breeze pattern across the threshold of SW Louisiana and SE Texas. The sea breeze will work in tandem with daytime heating to produce the aforementioned scattered convection. Again, this is a pattern in which there is no way to be specific about which areas will receive rainfall. This is strictly on a hit or miss basis. No change in the synoptic pattern is expected through Friday. Therefore, the same forecast is on tap for Friday. Temperatures will reach the lower 90s yet again both today and Friday, and morning lows on Friday will suffer a case of deja vu reaching the lower to middle 70s one more time. Rain chances will be no better than 20% both days, and this will not help the drought situation at all. These temperatures in the lower 90s are well above normal for early fall, but not records by any means. All record highs are still in excess of 100 degrees this time of year. Average highs across all reporting sites are in the upper 80s for this point in September. Any convection that fires during the peak heating hours both today and Friday will just be a figment of our imagination by sunset. This means that clear but warm and humid are in the offing for this week's round of Friday Night Football (and any Thursday games tonight). Temperatures will be in the 80s for all games.

Now, there's the weekend...we can finally look forward to some changes in the persistent pattern. The first true cold front of the season will be in transit as we get into the weekend. A deepening trough coming out of the Great Plains and Rockies will be digging through the Mid West, and send a September cold front our way, finally! It will take it awhile, but it seems increasingly likely that it will occur. Rain chances will respond accordingly, and increase. Saturday looks to be the better day for outdoor activities. Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy skies should prevail with an increasing onshore flow ahead of the approaching boundary. It will move into the state on Saturday, and steadily progress through the state over the weekend. The increased cloud cover and enhanced rain chances will result in a slight deduction of temperatures particularly for maximums. Morning lows on Saturday will still be in the lower 70s, but afternoon highs will be right around 90, give or take a degree. Some drier air will still be in place in the mid and upper levels, and it will be the front itself that helps to initiate convection. The trigger mechanism combined with daytime heating will produce a better scattering of mainly afternoon storms. It doesn't appear at this time that rainfall will be widespread on Saturday given the environmental set up. Of course, that brings up the question...will it rain on the ball games Saturday night? At this time, I can't promise that rain chances will be 0, but I do believe it will be dry for the most part. Given the fact that both the McNeese and LSU game are night games, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms will decrease by that time. However, with the front working into the region, some showers and storms can't be ruled out for the overnight hours. For now, I will mention just a slight chance of rain (20%) for both games. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s at kickoff, and into the mid to upper 70s by the end of the game. McNeese kicks off at 7p.m. and hosts Cal Poly at Cowboy Stadium, while LSU hosts West Virginia at 8p.m. in Tiger Stadium. It may be a good idea to have your rain gear handy for tailgating during the day just in case. The front crosses the forecast area during the day Sunday, and by this time the controlling ridge will have completely eroded across the region. Therefore, a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected. The potential for widespread convection will finally exist, but it shouldn't be an all day deal. Better chances will occur from mid-morning to mid-afternoon depending on the timing of the front. Mostly Cloudy skies are in store for Sunday, and I will raise rain chances into the likely category. Temperatures will cool off a bit more because of the clouds and rain, and the morning low will be around 70 while afternoon highs should be in the upper 80s. It'll be nice if it rains, and it would be good timing too, because most of us will be watching the Saints game after church anyway. The Saints take on division rival Atlanta in the Superdome at Noon. Of course, no weather issues for that game. Remember that crazy wind the Saints dealt with in San Francisco? Drier and cooler, fall air will filter into the forecast area behind the front Sunday evening. Rainfall totals could be around an inch or so, with higher amounts up to 2" possible. This will be welcomed, and while every little bit helps, the drought will by no means by alleviated. Clearing skies are expected Sunday night as the drier and cooler air filters in. Lows by Monday morning will be down into the mid to upper 60s for most locations. Lower 70s should suffice at the coast.

The front pushes into the coastal waters next week, and fresh, fall air will dominate the forecast as high pressure becomes established from the NW. At this same time, possible tropical development may occur in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, and this system could move towards the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. This could create a complex weather situation down the road, but whatever forms in this region will be deflected by the nice cold front. This system will either move Westward towards Mexico or get caught up in the flow ahead of the front, and move towards Florida. At this time, there is no reason to believe this would have any impact on SW Louisiana, but it will be something to discuss next week. We will be watching the trends. We will be enjoying some very much welcomed spectacular September weather with lows well down into the 60s, with the possibility of 50s for the Northern half of the area by Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Highs will easily reach the mid 80s each day, with upper 80s likely across the I-10 corridor. The drier air in place, and a strong September sun will support a larger diurnal range. No mention of rain is in the forecast for the Monday-Wednesday period. We need the rain, but the fall weather will be enjoyable. Most of next week looks nice with high pressure anchored across the area in the wake of the front, and the idea of additional fronts on the table towards week's end as October approaches. We will be watching for fronts and tropical systems of course. Typically though, once the fronts start a-comin', this marks the end of our tropical season, although the official end of the season is November 30. We have had tropical activity in October before, but of course, nothing like the storm of a lifetime 5 years ago, Hurricane Rita. See more on that below!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  73/92  74/92  75/90  0 20 0 20 0 40
LFT   74/92  74/93  75/91  0 20 0 20 0 40
BPT   75/92  75/93  76/90  0 20 0 20 0 40
AEX  71/94  71/94  72/93  0 20 0 20 0 40
POE  72/93  71/94  72/93  0 20 0 20 0 40
ARA  75/91  75/92  75/89  0 20 0 20 0 40


Today...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 92. SSE wind 8-13 mph.

Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 74. Light SSE wind.

Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 74. Light SSE wind.

Saturday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon. High 90. SSE wind becoming South 10-15 mph.


Thursday 9/23/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear











Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 2

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy











Temp: 81
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 6

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy











Temp: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 9
H.I.: 94

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy











Temp: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 12
H.I.: 99

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy












Temp: 88
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 95

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear












Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
9-23-10
Autumnal Equinox











Low: 73
High: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8-13
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 10- High


Friday
9-24-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Rita











Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 10- High


Saturday
9-25-10











Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High


Sunday
9-26-10











Low: 70
High: 88
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 8- High


Monday
9-27-10










Low: 67
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


Tuesday
9-28-10











Low: 63
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


Wednesday
9-29-10









Low: 62
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


...Tropical Update...

I will continue the look back at Hurricane Rita just below this tropical update. First, let's focus on what's going on out there right now. We have one named storm this morning. Lisa continues to fester in the Eastern Atlantic, and is still no threat to land. Meanwhile, a bit closer to home, an area of disturbed weather continues to show signs of better organization, and could be in line to become our next tropical system within a day or two. It will need to pull away from the Northern Coast of South America. It will continue churning through the Caribbean over the next few days.

Lisa...Lethargic Lisa continues to meander in the open waters of the Atlantic. Lisa is struggling to survive this morning, and this storm will be of little consequence. It will end up as a mere statistic at the end of the season. Lisa has been encountering a significant amount of wind shear over the last couple of days, really since its inception Monday. Lisa has been moving between an upper level low and a strong mid-latitude ridge over the Eastern Atlantic and Western Africa. This has interrupted the inflow of Lisa, and has helped to keep Lisa a weak tropical storm. The idea of Lisa becoming seems unlikely now. However, there is a window of opportunity for some strengthening of Lisa over the next couple of days as the shear relaxes in the short-term thanks to the lifting out of the upper level low. There is plenty of warm water in the area where Lisa currently resides, so if the shear relaxes Lisa will be in a favorable environment for said strengthening. Since Lisa is trapped in between these two synoptic features, the cyclone will move very little for the rest of the work week. By the weekend, Lisa should accelerate, and turn to the NW as steering currents become more definitive. The well-defined steering currents will exist as the ridge to the NE of Lisa strengthens, and a trough approaches from the NW. Lisa will move between these two systems, and this will help Lisa gain latitude. The window of opportunity for any strengthening will close almost as quickly as it opens later this week. The advancing trough to the NW of Lisa will increase the wind shear once again. The circulation center of Lisa will ingest the shear, and this should promote a gradual weakening trend over the weekend. Lisa will likely become a tropical depression early next week. Lisa will pose no threat to land, and will be a very inconsequential storm. Since it's on the board, let's have a look at the latest advisory on Lisa, just for old time's sake.

Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory

10p.m. Wednesday, September 22, 2010

...Lethargic Lisa Lumbers a Long Way From Louisiana...

Latitude: 17.7 N

Longitude: 29.6 W

This is 390 miles WNW of the Cape Verde, Islands.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through Friday, but Lisa should remain at tropical storm status. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 50 miles from the center.

Movement: E or 90 degrees @ 5 mph. A slow and erratic motion is anticipated through today. A NW motion with a gradual increase in forward speed in expected to commence Friday.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.68" or 1005 mb.



Invest 95L...The system dubbed Invest 95L continues to organize over the Caribbean Sea. Squally weather and some gusty winds are undoubtedly occurring across the Caribbean region including portion of Venezuela and Colombia. The environment over the Caribbean Sea, particularly the Western Caribbean Sea is very favorable for further development. All models continue to suggest such a possibility with varying degrees of course. Models continue to gain consistency as well with the idea that this system will not be a threat to Louisiana. It still seems within reason to believe that this will be a Gulf entity, but with an advancing trough moving into the are over the weekend, it sure seems like Invest 95L will have no impact locally. Any Gulf activity will do one of two things in the expectant pattern. The front will deflect it back towards and over Florida, or generally due Westward into Mexico. There is still much speculation as to what is going to happen with Invest 95L, but I do believe it will become our next tropical customer. The next name on the 2010 list is Matthew. Without an actual system already on board, it is hard to determine where the ultimate destination for Invest 95L will be. Once it becomes a classified entity, models will initialize much better, and we can have a fixated point. When looking for tropical development in the Atlantic basin, I think what we have to do is look for trends and consistencies, and we certainly have that here. While models develop the system, they all suggest different degrees of development, yet again another example of just watching for trends. A Hurricane Hunter may investigate this system later today.


















Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is anticipated through Friday.


Now, I continue the look back at Hurricane Rita...5 years ago! Today I will continue the Rita time line which began on the last page. I will pick up where we left off on September 22. Next, I will also briefly describe the evolution of the storm, and why and how it hit SW Louisiana and SE Texas, also why was it so strong? This blog entry will also include the actual advisory and forecast track from when Rita was at peak intensity. Coming later today and Friday there will be separate blogs concerning the information on Rita because I have so much information to display, and it is the shear magnitude of the storm that yields it's own blog entry, so as to not take away from the significance of the day.


Rita Time Line (Part 2)

-Friday, September 23, 2005 4a.m.- Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of SW Louisiana and SE Texas. It is the quiet before the storm, tropical storm force winds will be approaching the coastline shortly. The majority of residents in the forecast area have evacuated, and local law enforcements have closed off the entrances to the parish and city. Rita remains a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds.

-Friday, September 23, 2005 10a.m.- Rita begins to slowly weaken, but remains a very powerful and intense hurricane. Tropical storm conditions are buffeting portions of the SE Louisiana coast, and are quickly approaching Acadiana and the coast of SW Louisiana.

-Friday, September 23, 2005 4p.m.- The massive rain shield from Rita envelops much of SW Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions are overspreading the region along and South of I-10. Rita continues to weaken to category 3 status, but a massive category 5 surge is heading in the direction of Cameron Parish.

-Friday, September 23, 2005 10p.m.- Hurricane Rita is getting very close now. It has weakened a bit further to a category 3 storm with 120-125 mp winds. Sustained hurricane force winds are being experienced across a large portion of SW Louisiana including Lake Charles. Many spin-off tornadoes on the NE side of Rita's eye are occurring across SW Louisiana. Rita has wobbled between NW and NNW, and it appears evident that landfall will occur on the Louisiana side of the Sabine River somewhere between Sabine Pass and Johnson Bayou.

-Saturday, September 24, 2005 2:38a.m.- Major Hurricane Rita makes landfall near Johnson Bayou in SW Cameron Parish. Rita has 120 mph winds (category 3), but wind gusts into category 5 range occur. A massive storm surge wipes out our beloved coastal communities such as Cameron and Holly Beach. Winds are sustained at over 100 mph in the cities of Lake Charles, Sulphur, Orange, and Beaumont. Major structural damage is inflicted from Beaumont to Lafayette. A storm surge of nearly 20' occurs along the coast, and pushes water all the way up the Calcasieu Ship Channel into Downtown Lake Charles.

-Saturday, September 24, 2005 7a.m.- Rita moves further inland basically right up the Sabine River Valley. It is located midway between Beaumont and Jasper. Conditions are slow to improve across the area, and daylight begins to reveal the damage from the Rita. Wind gusts to hurricane force are still occurring at Lake Charles with sustained winds well into tropical storm force.

-Saturday, September 24, 2005 1p.m.- Rita is downgraded to a tropical storm between Shreveport and Lufkin. Heavy rains and tropical storm force winds continue to pummel the region. The storm surge flooding continues due to the strong SE winds over the region. Everyone remains away from the area, and will not be allowed back for 2-3 weeks. There is no electricity, no services of any kind anywhere in SW Louisiana. Generator power is the only option at this time.

-Saturday, September 24, 2005 10p.m. - The storm is over. Now, the focus shifts to clean up and re-build. It is a very dark Saturday night as there are no lights on anywhere in the area. Calcasieu Parish remains closed, and all entrances to the municipalities are blockaded. Most of the places along our fragile coastline in Cameron and Vermilion Parishes are no longer there. SW Louisiana faces a long recovery process now. Rita continues to spin further North, and has weakened to a tropical depression. It continues to spread heavy rain and isolated tornadoes over North Louisiana and much of Arkansas and Mississippi.


Rita formed from a tropical wave that originated off the coast of Africa, a typical Cape Verde storm. It had a hard time materialized at first, because of less than ideal atmospheric conditions. However, on the 17th of September, conditions were more favorable for development, and a tropical depression formed near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm Rita was born the next day between The Florida Keys and The Bahamas. Rita rapidly strengthened, and became a hurricane in the Florida Straits on Tuesday, September 20. Rita was in an ideal area for strengthening and had the Gulf was an area of extremely high oceanic heating content. The conditions were essentially the same for Rita as they were for Katrina 3 weeks prior. From there, you know what happened, Rita continued to strengthen becoming an unbelievable, unfathomable category 5 storm with 175 mph winds on September 21 into September 22. Rita reached peak intensity on the morning of the 22nd, and then slowly weakened from there. It made landfall on September 24 at 2:38a.m. near Johnson Bayou with 120 mph winds- category 3. The question is why did Rita reach such an incredible strength? The prime atmospheric conditions and the high oceanic heating content were the main culprits. High pressure was parked over the SE U.S., and this also aided in strengthening Rita. Gulf SSTs were near 90 degrees in portions of the Gulf of Mexico. The other primary question is why did Rita hit SW Louisiana? It all hinged on the synoptic set up across the Gulf Coast. High pressure had dominated our forecast for several days in September 2005, but as Rita was forming in the Atlantic it became evident that a pattern shift was looming. Models suggested a breakdown (weakening) of the ridge over the forecast area. The storm would follow the path of least resistance, and wherever the weakness was the strongest is where the storm would make landfall. This was, unfortunately right over SW Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center originally had Rita progged to strike near Corpus Christi, Texas. This is prime example of how large a forecast error can be when dealing with a hurricane.

The following is a graphic displaying the forecast track at the time of Rita's peak intensity.


















To wrap it up for this portion of the look back at Rita, here is the actual text advisory as issued by the National Hurricane Center. 4a.m. Thursday, September 22, 2005.

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY 
NUMBER 19
NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER MIAMI, FL
4 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 
 
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC 
CATEGORY FIVE RITA MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE 
WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COAST 
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.  

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS 
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY 
LOUISIANA.  

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL 
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR 
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE 
WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM 
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF 
LOUISIANA EAST OF 
MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED IN THE 
WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA 
FROM EAST OF 
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO 
MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH 
OF PORT MANSFIELD TO 
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN 
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 
RIO SAN FERNANDO 
NORTHWARD TO THE 
RIO GRANDE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH 
MEANS THAT HURRICANE 
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. 
A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT 
TROPICAL STORM 
CONDITIONS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR 
THE PROGRESS OF 
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC 
HURRICANE RITA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION 
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS
...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE 
RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  88.0 WEST 
OR ABOUT  515 MILES...
830 KM...SE OF 
GALVESTON TEXAS AND 
ABOUT  615 MILES... 990
KM...ESE OF CORPUS 
CHRISTI TEXAS.
 
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD 
THE WNW NEAR 9 MPH...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR 
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE 
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH 
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES 
RITA A POTENTIALLY 
CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE ON THE 
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME 
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY 
ARE LIKELY DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES 
FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 
ESTIMATED FROM REPORTS 
BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER 
IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES.  
THIS MEANS RITA IS THE
THIRD MOST INTENSE 
HURRICANE IN TERMS OF 
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.
 
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY 
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL 
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI 
AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN 
THE AREAS AFFECTED 
BY KATRINA. TIDES 
IN THOSE AREAS WILL 
INCREASE UP TO 3-4 
FEET AND BE 
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS... 
AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME 
COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS 
ASSOCIATED WITH RITA 
ARE FORECAST TO 
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL 
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. 
RITA IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8-12 
INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES FROM THE 
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO 
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS 
METROPOLITAN AREA.
AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 
5-10 INCHES WILL BE 
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... 
AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA 
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT 
POSITION...24.9 N... 88.0 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WNW  9 MPH.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH.  
MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE... 897 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE 
ADVISORY WILL BE 
ISSUED BY THE 
NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 
10 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN


Look for more on Rita later today and Friday. Tomorrow is the actual anniversary of Hurricane Rita.


...Marine Forecast...


Today...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


Have a great Thursday & God bless!
-DM-

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