Friday, December 31, 2010
I hope you are enjoying your New Year's Eve. This is the latest update on tonight's severe weather potential. The threat seems very minimal here in SW Louisiana. Only scattered showers and storms have developed so far. It seems as though the best dynamics have outran the cold front, and our situated further to our North and East. The greatest severe weather threat has and will continue to materialize to our East. Any severe weather here across SW Louisiana will be isolated at best.
The cold front is knocking on the door here at LCH. It is essentially slicing right through Calcasieu Parish having passed DeQuincy already. Showers and storms are trying to get better organized in the warm sector, but they will likely not have enough time to organize into anything severe at least over immediate SW Louisiana before frontal passage occurs between now and midnight. Acadiana will stand a bit better chance to see a severe weather threat, but it is minimal even there. It appears we will dodge the bullet here as we close out the year, but I will be monitoring the storms as long as it takes tonight. Heavy rainfall may be the biggest threat in this forecast area, mainly for Acadiana. Rainfall amounts in excess of 1" are expected in that area, with lesser amounts for immediate SW Louisiana including Lake Charles. The threat for severe weather will end with frontal passage by midnight in immediate SW Louisiana, and by 2 a.m. for the Lafayette area. No tornado watches are in effect across Louisiana at this moment.
Conditions will improve after midnight with much colder air moving into the region. Clouds and some post-frontal showers will be in store for the morning hours on Saturday New Year's Day. Further improvement will occur late in the day on Saturday, and clear skies and cold temperatures take over for New Year's night. Temperatures are currently in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but we will quickly fall into the 50s behind the cold front. Temperatures by sunrise will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s across the area. It will feel colder than that with the breezy conditions and continued cloud cover. The fact that it has been so warm lately too will make it feel even chillier. We will certainly be back to gumbo weather. Temperatures will be in the 30s by Sunday morning, and near freezing on Monday. Stay tuned for more!
This will likely be my last update unless something really goes haywire overnight. I will resume the blog on Monday. I wish everyone a safe and Happy New Year. May God's blessings be plentiful for you and yours in 2011.
Good Night, Happy New Year, & God bless!
-DM-
Friday, December 31, 2010
New Year's Eve Severe Weather Threat Unfolding...
The anticipated severe weather event is unfolding. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a Tornado Watch effective until 8p.m. this New Year's Eve for all parishes in the forecast area to the North of I-10. This includes Beauregard, Allen, Vernon, Rapides, St. Landry, Evangeline, and Avoyelles Parishes. This same tornado watch extends Northward into the Shreveport and Jackson NWS areas of responsibility. The watch includes cities such as Natchez, MS, Natchitoches, LA, and Monroe, LA. The rest of SW Louisiana (Calcasieu, Cameron, Jeff Davis, Vermilion, Acadia, Lafayette, St. Martin, St. Mary, & Iberia Parishes) are not included in any tornado watch box at the moment, but this event is just beginning to unfold, so this could change as the afternoon progresses, so stay tuned.
Currently, there is not too much ongoing across most of SW Louisiana, however, scattered activity has begun to develop. One strong thunderstorm that developed before noon near the state line in Calcasieu Parish has moved NE and is currently near Alexandria. This storm has intensified significantly, and has been showing signs of rotation. The NWS Lake Charles has issued a Tornado Warning for this particular cell. There has not been any reports of a tornado or any severe weather in this forecast area just yet.
A separate Tornado Watch is in effect until 7p.m. for all of SE Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and parts of Southern Alabama and Extreme Western Florida. This includes Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Hammond, Slidell, Biloxi-Gulfport-Pascagoula, McComb, Hattiesburg, Mobile, and Pensacola. I would expect additional watches and many warnings to be issued later on this afternoon and well into tonight.
Looks like we will be ringing in the new year with some of Mother Nature's fireworks. Stay tuned for more.
-DM-
2010 Ends on a Stormy Note...
Friday, December 31, 2010
New Year's Eve
Happy New Year
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...After the mid-week system brought some much needed rainfall, and very little in the way of severe weather at least locally we are bracing for the second and stronger of this week's weather systems. On this Friday morning, we see the New Year's troublemaker on the map, and marching Eastward. A newsworthy severe weather outbreak is already ongoing in parts of the Ozarks up into the Mid West. Around here at least this morning, things are on the quiet side with generally just Overcast skies and some areas of Patchy Fog. It is on the breezy side as well as pressure differences continue to increase out ahead of the advancing system. The system I am talking about is the one I've advertised all week long. It is a strong Pacific cold front in conjunction with a slow moving surface low, and upper level low. A digging trough over the Great Plains is helping to steer this front in our direction. In the post-frontal environment, it is unseasonably warm and the humidity is quite simply at an uncanny level. Morning temperatures are running above what the normal lows should be in late December. It is currently 72 at LCH as I write this. There is quite a large amount of energy that needs to be discharged with this system. Just look at the downstream observations up in the Dakotas where it is about -5, and one of the most interesting observations I found this morning comes from Kansas where there was heavy sleet and thunderstorms earlier. This front is tapping into some Arctic air behind it, but the direct transport of the cold air will bypass SW Louisiana. We will certainly cool off to start 2011, but it won't be terribly cold, more on that in a few minutes.
First, let's focus on how everything will evolve this evening. A thin line of showers has developed just West of this forecast area over East Texas. This is a harbinger of things to come. Only a few light, scattered showers are expected late this morning through early afternoon. As the strong front approaches the forecast area in the mid-late afternoon hours, surface based convergence will increase, and lifting will be in place along with decent dynamics and instability. Thus, showers and thunderstorms will develop across the forecast area. Additional Jet Stream energy that is forcing the cold air SE will tap into the available Gulf moisture, adding energy to the already volatile atmosphere. This will produce a risk of severe weather across the entire forecast area. However, the best dynamics and energy look to be setting up further to our N and E. There is currently a large tornado watch in effect for parts of Arkansas and Missouri. It may turn out to be a situation where the worst of the weather here in Louisiana organizes over SW Louisiana, and intensifies as it moves into Acadiana and SE Louisiana overnight. For this reason, I believe we are in the edge of the severe weather threat on this New Year's Eve. However, it is a borderline situation and we need to closely monitor the weather through the day. I know many of you will likely be away from your TV or any information source tonight as you celebrate the New Year. I urge you to keep some way of informing yourself, so you will be alert should any adverse weather conditions arise.
Rain should begin across the area in the mid to late afternoon hours with showers and thunderstorms into the likely category. The window of opportunity for severe weather looks to come in the evening hours until about midnight or so. Models are still differing just a bit on the exact timing of fropa, but since we are within 12-18 hours of said frontal passage, there is good consensus that the front will reach SW Louisiana between 9p.m. and midnight. The worst of the weather should occur along and just ahead of the front as all of the energy is displaced. This incredibly warm atmosphere will be dispersed, and we will transition to a much cooler and drier air mass after midnight. The greatest threat from severe weather around SW Louisiana should be damaging winds, but isolated tornadoes and large hail will be possible as well. The tornado threat will be higher from Acadiana and points Eastward. Heavy rainfall will also occur on top of what we experienced on Wednesday. Average rainfall amounts will be between 1-2" here locally, but some locations may see in excess of 3" once again. I will have some graphical representations shortly. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has highlighted all of SW Louisiana, and all of Louisiana for that matter in a slight risk for severe weather. Again, graphical representations to follow.
The severe weather threat will be greatest between 6p.m. and midnight just ahead of the Pacific front. If nothing else, expect strong thunderstorms across the area with gusty winds and heavy rain, lots of lightning and thunder. This will more than likely put a damper on your New Year's plans if they are indeed outside. The weather will slowly improve in the wake of the front overnight as we start 2011. There will more than likely be some post-frontal shower activity as moisture remains in the boundary layer until the secondary surge of colder air (Arctic front) moves through towards daybreak on New Year's Day. Highs today will easily crack the 70 degree mark, and ultimately top out in the mid 70s. It won't feel like New Year's at all. However, when you wake up on New Year's Day Saturday it will have a much different feel outside. Temperatures will drop substantially from the mid 70s this afternoon to the upper 40s to lower 50s by sunrise Saturday. If case you will be outside this evening, you can expect the humidity to remain high and unseasonable warmth to continue as well with temperatures generally running between 65 and 70 until frontal passage. We will polish off 2010 on a wet note, and that's a good thing, though you could argue that the timing is impeccable. We are still marred in an incredible drought by Louisiana standards despite the significant rainfall on Wednesday. We are still over 20" in debt on rainfall for this year. We won't make up the whole thing before the year ends, but since the ground is still relatively wet from the mid-week rain, there could be some localized street flooding in areas of heavier rain. Flooding is not a big concern, though, since we've been so dry. Is the rainy end to 2010 a microcosm of what to expect weather wise in 2011? Only God knows that.
I don't want to spend a whole lot of time discussing the remainder of the forecast period with the impinging storm system. However, I know you want to know how the remainder of New Year's weekend will turn out. Conditions improve during the day New Year's Day, but the chance of post-frontal rain will be in the forecast at least for the early morning hours. Clouds will take much the day to decrease, however as high pressure slowly builds in. CAA will be in full force, and temperatures won't move all that much. Expect maximums to top out at near normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most. You might not really notice, however, with the plethora of football games scheduled. Cold weather returns as the glancing blow from the Arctic air becomes the story by New Year's night into Sunday. Skies will clear and the area of high pressure will continue to push Southward. Expect temperatures to be back in the 30s for Sunday morning, however, it will likely remain above freezing, and there should not be a frost issue. Strong Northerly winds will subdue any frost potential. It will much colder because of the winds, however, with wind chills in the 20s to around freezing. Keep this in mind as you head off to church. Sunday will be the first beautiful day of 2011 with plentiful sunshine and pleasantly cool afternoon temps. Highs will be back below normal but as winds die down, the 50s won't feel bad at all. A rather sedate pattern takes us into the first work week of the new year with high pressure firmly in control. It will be a cold morning on Monday heading back to work or school. Temperatures will flirt with freezing, but a warm up will ensue beyond that point. It will remain seasonably cool Monday, and we'll start out with plenty of sunshine. Clouds will roll in as the day progresses. Rain chances come back quickly across the forecast area on Tuesday as an unsettled pattern develops for the remainder of the forecast period. A period of overrunning may develop, bringing off and on periods of rain to the area especially for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should moderate a bit, but remain about seasonal. I will discuss this with more specificity later on.
I better wrap this up due to time constraints, and being in severe weather mode. Check back later day for more. I will post one more time before heading off for my New Year's plans. I will also update this evening and tonight as necessary, so you can rest assured you will get all the weather information you need right here. There is no need for you to turn anywhere else. Be safe and have a Happy New Year!
Happy New Year & God bless!
-DM-
New Year's Eve
Happy New Year
First, let's focus on how everything will evolve this evening. A thin line of showers has developed just West of this forecast area over East Texas. This is a harbinger of things to come. Only a few light, scattered showers are expected late this morning through early afternoon. As the strong front approaches the forecast area in the mid-late afternoon hours, surface based convergence will increase, and lifting will be in place along with decent dynamics and instability. Thus, showers and thunderstorms will develop across the forecast area. Additional Jet Stream energy that is forcing the cold air SE will tap into the available Gulf moisture, adding energy to the already volatile atmosphere. This will produce a risk of severe weather across the entire forecast area. However, the best dynamics and energy look to be setting up further to our N and E. There is currently a large tornado watch in effect for parts of Arkansas and Missouri. It may turn out to be a situation where the worst of the weather here in Louisiana organizes over SW Louisiana, and intensifies as it moves into Acadiana and SE Louisiana overnight. For this reason, I believe we are in the edge of the severe weather threat on this New Year's Eve. However, it is a borderline situation and we need to closely monitor the weather through the day. I know many of you will likely be away from your TV or any information source tonight as you celebrate the New Year. I urge you to keep some way of informing yourself, so you will be alert should any adverse weather conditions arise.
Rain should begin across the area in the mid to late afternoon hours with showers and thunderstorms into the likely category. The window of opportunity for severe weather looks to come in the evening hours until about midnight or so. Models are still differing just a bit on the exact timing of fropa, but since we are within 12-18 hours of said frontal passage, there is good consensus that the front will reach SW Louisiana between 9p.m. and midnight. The worst of the weather should occur along and just ahead of the front as all of the energy is displaced. This incredibly warm atmosphere will be dispersed, and we will transition to a much cooler and drier air mass after midnight. The greatest threat from severe weather around SW Louisiana should be damaging winds, but isolated tornadoes and large hail will be possible as well. The tornado threat will be higher from Acadiana and points Eastward. Heavy rainfall will also occur on top of what we experienced on Wednesday. Average rainfall amounts will be between 1-2" here locally, but some locations may see in excess of 3" once again. I will have some graphical representations shortly. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has highlighted all of SW Louisiana, and all of Louisiana for that matter in a slight risk for severe weather. Again, graphical representations to follow.
The severe weather threat will be greatest between 6p.m. and midnight just ahead of the Pacific front. If nothing else, expect strong thunderstorms across the area with gusty winds and heavy rain, lots of lightning and thunder. This will more than likely put a damper on your New Year's plans if they are indeed outside. The weather will slowly improve in the wake of the front overnight as we start 2011. There will more than likely be some post-frontal shower activity as moisture remains in the boundary layer until the secondary surge of colder air (Arctic front) moves through towards daybreak on New Year's Day. Highs today will easily crack the 70 degree mark, and ultimately top out in the mid 70s. It won't feel like New Year's at all. However, when you wake up on New Year's Day Saturday it will have a much different feel outside. Temperatures will drop substantially from the mid 70s this afternoon to the upper 40s to lower 50s by sunrise Saturday. If case you will be outside this evening, you can expect the humidity to remain high and unseasonable warmth to continue as well with temperatures generally running between 65 and 70 until frontal passage. We will polish off 2010 on a wet note, and that's a good thing, though you could argue that the timing is impeccable. We are still marred in an incredible drought by Louisiana standards despite the significant rainfall on Wednesday. We are still over 20" in debt on rainfall for this year. We won't make up the whole thing before the year ends, but since the ground is still relatively wet from the mid-week rain, there could be some localized street flooding in areas of heavier rain. Flooding is not a big concern, though, since we've been so dry. Is the rainy end to 2010 a microcosm of what to expect weather wise in 2011? Only God knows that.
I don't want to spend a whole lot of time discussing the remainder of the forecast period with the impinging storm system. However, I know you want to know how the remainder of New Year's weekend will turn out. Conditions improve during the day New Year's Day, but the chance of post-frontal rain will be in the forecast at least for the early morning hours. Clouds will take much the day to decrease, however as high pressure slowly builds in. CAA will be in full force, and temperatures won't move all that much. Expect maximums to top out at near normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most. You might not really notice, however, with the plethora of football games scheduled. Cold weather returns as the glancing blow from the Arctic air becomes the story by New Year's night into Sunday. Skies will clear and the area of high pressure will continue to push Southward. Expect temperatures to be back in the 30s for Sunday morning, however, it will likely remain above freezing, and there should not be a frost issue. Strong Northerly winds will subdue any frost potential. It will much colder because of the winds, however, with wind chills in the 20s to around freezing. Keep this in mind as you head off to church. Sunday will be the first beautiful day of 2011 with plentiful sunshine and pleasantly cool afternoon temps. Highs will be back below normal but as winds die down, the 50s won't feel bad at all. A rather sedate pattern takes us into the first work week of the new year with high pressure firmly in control. It will be a cold morning on Monday heading back to work or school. Temperatures will flirt with freezing, but a warm up will ensue beyond that point. It will remain seasonably cool Monday, and we'll start out with plenty of sunshine. Clouds will roll in as the day progresses. Rain chances come back quickly across the forecast area on Tuesday as an unsettled pattern develops for the remainder of the forecast period. A period of overrunning may develop, bringing off and on periods of rain to the area especially for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should moderate a bit, but remain about seasonal. I will discuss this with more specificity later on.
I better wrap this up due to time constraints, and being in severe weather mode. Check back later day for more. I will post one more time before heading off for my New Year's plans. I will also update this evening and tonight as necessary, so you can rest assured you will get all the weather information you need right here. There is no need for you to turn anywhere else. Be safe and have a Happy New Year!
Happy New Year & God bless!
-DM-
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Round One Over With...Round Two On Tap for New Years Eve...
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Everything fell into place nicely on this last Wednesday of 2010. The widespread rain event unfolded right on cue as we got into the afternoon hours. The upper level feature out ahead of the main Pacific system has rolled across the area, and the advancing warm front is in transit as well. Thankfully, the severe weather aspect of things never materialized at least for most of the forecast area. The prospects of severe weather were an iffy proposition to begin with. Better dynamics and instability slowly worked their way into the area as forcing increased late this evening. Some severe weather occurred in the SE portion of the forecast area mainly in coastal areas from near Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge over towards New Iberia. The elongated troughiness is pulling East of the area, and rainfall is coming to an end from West to East tonight. Much needed rainfall has occurred across the area with many locations receiving a nice soaking in excess of 2". Isolated higher amounts near 4" have occurred in heavier clusters near the coast. It was almost strange to hear thunder and see the lightning since it has been many weeks since such an occurrence happened around these parts. Temperatures won't really drop much overnight, in fact they may rise slightly after midnight as warmer air works into the region behind the departed disturbance. Expect minimums to range from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area. In the wake of the rain, fog may become an issue by Thursday morning with areas of dense fog possible with plenty of residual moisture in place. This is quite common in a warm frontal environment. The already persistent onshore flow will continue.Today's rains will at least take away any thought of enduring the driest December on record, but we are still mired in an extreme drought situation.
There is not much change in the forecast philosophy from 24 hours ago. We will still endure a lull on Thursday as we will be in between weather systems. Today's rain maker will continue lifting out to our E and NE and weaken as it does so. However, we will turn our attention to the West. A rather potent Pacific storm will be coming down the pipe. A warm air advection regime will be in place Thursday. We will be dry slotted at the surface, and drier air will temporarily reside in the mid and upper levels. This will keep rain chances on the slim side with no presence of a trigger mechanism to generate more widespread rain. I certainly can't totally eliminate rain chances with the presence of the deep low level moisture over the area. Only scattered activity is expected mainly due to the effects of daytime heating and later in the day as moisture begins to pool over the region, and convergence starts to increase ahead of the advancing storm system. It will be much warmer on Thursday afternoon with high temperatures easily surpassing the 70 degree threshold. It could ultimately get as warm as the mid 70s across the area, and it won't feel much like the end of December. It will be on the breezy side as well due to the pressure anomalies driven by the orientation of the two weather systems. Expect a long fetch Southerly flow to remain in place across the area with gusts over 20 mph at times. Skies will generally be Mostly Cloudy, but certainly a few peeks of sun are expected in the dry slot. Very similar conditions will be in place for Thursday night, but the rain chances will increase a bit with convergence increasing ahead of the Pacific storm. Overnight lows will be on the mild side, and will more or less be what the normal high should be for this time of year. Overnight minimums will be in the lower 60s heading into Friday.
That takes us to Friday, New Year's Eve...The second round of rain and storms will affect the area at this time. There is not much change in the forecast reasoning for this period either. The day will start relatively calm with perhaps some patchy fog and the unseasonable warmth. Skies will generally be Partly to Mostly Cloudy to start the day. The strong storm system and its associated cold front, and surface low will progress Eastward. There will also be a dry line feature associated with this front. This will develop over Texas Friday morning as the Jet Stream becomes active. The very potent upper trough will send the combination dry line, cold front towards the area. Moisture will pool over the area, and low level convergence will increase in earnest. The imposing synoptic features will cause weakening of the mid and upper level cap. Showers and thunderstorms will develop as the day progresses. Most of the morning will be dry, but during the afternoon convection will develop and work its way into the area. It should generally be of a scattered nature at first, but by mid to late afternoon activity should become more widespread. The Jet Stream dynamics will stream right over the area, and the forecast area is likely to be in the favorable right front quadrant of the Jet Stream by Friday evening. The strong onshore flow at the surface, and strong SW winds aloft will generate windy conditions ahead of the boundary. The chances for showers & storms will ramp up into the likely category yet again likely after about 3p.m. on New Years Eve, and remain high into the overnight hours.
Your New Year's Eve plans may need to be altered as it stands right now. The most likely time frame to see showers & thunderstorms will likely be between 4p.m. and midnight. Given better dynamics and instability, a greater chance of severe weather will exist with the main system on Friday. All modes of severe weather will be possible, but damaging winds seem like the most likely form. Isolated tornadoes certainly can't be ruled out given the favorable set up for wind shear over the area. Large hail is also in the mix. I am certainly more concerned about the prospects of severe weather during this time since many will be away from their TV or radio and out celebrating for New Years. I strongly suggest having a way to keep yourself informed of any threatening weather conditions. Being able to have your own fireworks display, looks like an iffy proposition at this time given the timing of this rain event. This will certainly be another widespread rain event, and another 1-2" of rain is expected area wide. Isolated higher amounts closer to 3" are possible. We are close enough to the event now that narrowing down a time of arrival is within reason. I will stick with a frontal passage before midnight, with the worst of the weather in the previously mentioned 8 hour window from 4p.m. Friday afternoon to around midnight Saturday New Year's Day. Of course, further revisions are expected tomorrow as new model data becomes available. The unseasonable warmth will be with us to close out 2010 as highs reach the mid 70s on Friday. It will turn sharply colder in the wake of the front overnight Friday. A storng CAA regime will establish itself as we start the new year, and waking up on New Year's Day it will be much cooler with morning lows generally in the mid 40s to around 50 or so. This cold front will not be nearly as strong as the predecessor was over Christmas weekend, but we will certainly chill down once again. The threat for strong to severe storms will come to an end in the overnight hours with the frontal working into the coastal waters.
Clouds and the chance for showers will linger in the post-frontal environment on New Year's Day. The colder and more stable air will filter into the region at the surface, but moisture will remain trapped in the boundary layer due to the shallow nature of the surface cold front. We will also have wrap-around moisture associated with the backside upper level low to deal with across the area. This means that a chance for rain will continue well into the day on New Year's Day before much improvement is noted. Expect the cloudiness and periodic shower activity to be in place with CAA continuing. Temperatures will not rise all that much at all on New Year's Day given continued CAA and the continued cloud cover and chance for post-frontal rains. A very small diurnal range is to be expected with highs only topping out in the mid 50s or so. A strong offshore flow will be locked in place over the area. Conditions improve further into the afternoon hours as high pressure sliding down the front range of the Rockies begins to build into the forecast area. This will clean out the moisture in the mid and upper levels as the cold front drives further into the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the chances of lingering rain will cease and desist by mid and late afternoon. Cloud cover will slowly begin to exit stage right as well. Clear skies will take over by New Year's Night with the high pressure firmly entrenched over the NW Gulf Coastal Plain. Seasonably cold temperatures are on tap with morning lows by Sunday back down into the 30s once again. The offshore flow will slowly decrease in intensity overnight as the high builds in.
Quiet weather is on tap for Sunday and Monday with the high pressure in control. Once again, this air mass is not terribly cold so nothing out of the ordinary is expected. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 30s on average with clear skies and lighter winds in place. Plentiful sunshine is expected for the second half of New Year's weekend with high pressure in control. It will be seasonably cool even in the afternoon with highs falling short of the normal 60 degree threshold. More of the same is expected for Monday with the high pressure essentially anchored very near SW Louisiana. Monday morning looks to be the coldest one of this forecast period with lows close to freezing along I-10. Many locations north of the interstate will likely endure a light freeze, but this is nothing drastic compared to the hard freezes we've dealt with this month. The high pressure will only slowly work its way Eastward, so while CAA ceases, a very light Easterly flow will set up due to the orientation of the surface high. Afternoon highs may be a tick or two cooler than that of Sunday, but they won't be far off given the seasonably cool air mass in place, and the low sun angle during the month of January. There will also more than likely be a bout of frost on Monday morning, so an early word to the wise here to protect your pets and your tender vegetation. I certainly don't see any hard freezes in the near future, so pipes will not be an issue this go around.
Cloud cover may begin to return on Monday night. The New Year's cold front will likely stall out and hover over the coastal waters. This front may begin to lift back Northward as warm front beginning Tuesday. An advance of cloudiness will stream over the area Monday night. This cloud mass will likely keep us more insulated than a normal early January night would be in this situation. Thus, air mass modification should begin even though there won't be a classic return flow set up in place yet. It should remain dry as the high pressure keeps its grip over the area for a little while longer. Clouds will increase more significantly on Tuesday. Deeper moisture may quickly return on Tuesday afternoon as the slow moving warm front evacuates the coastal waters and moves back towards land. This could allow for a slight chance of showers & thunderstorms by the afternoon hours, but a major rain event appears unlikely at this time for Tuesday. I should pause just a moment to say that some of the forecast models still suggest the development of a prolonged overrunning event behind the front. I am still not totally convinced on this perception. It seems certain that our next temperature modification trend will be up at this time more than likely. Morning lows will continue to be seasonably cold with readings generally in the mid to upper 30s over the area. Tuesday afternoon highs should be very close to 60 degree norm. I fully expect the return flow to establish itself during the day. Better rain chances come at the end of this forecast period on Wednesday. The combination of the lifting warm front, and a system with Pacific origins pulls to the East overrunning seems be a more likely scenario. If the trends continue, rain chances could ultimately wind up in the likely category, but since this is at the end of the forecast period just chance pops will suffice for now. It is also too early to suggest whether or not thunderstorms will even be a possibility at this juncture. Given the look shown by models suggesting overrunning, thunder seems like a localized entity at best. Temperature modification will be likely with highs reaching the mid 60s easily. This will swing us back towards above normal. This period will have the potential to see a prolonged rain event, but a lot of uncertainties are in existence. Models show the best chance for showers & some thunderstorms coming just beyond the scope of this forecast package. Another cold front is advertised around the end of next week with rain chances continuing until then. Expect there to be many revisions in the coming days.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 59/74 62/75 45/58 80 20 30 70 80 30
LFT 57/74 61/76 46/59 90 30 20 70 80 30
BPT 61/75 64/75 44/61 80 20 30 70 80 30
AEX 55/73 59/73 40/55 90 30 20 80 80 30
POE 55/73 59/74 41/56 80 20 30 80 80 30
ARA 58/74 60/75 48/60 90 30 20 70 80 30
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy w/ Showers & Thunderstorms likely early, but ending from West to East as the nigh progresses. Warmer. Low 59. Fog developing after midnight. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 80% early, but dropping to 20% towards morning.
Thursday...Areas of fog early, otherwise Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of scattered Showers & Thunderstorms. High 74. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Thursday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ some Patchy Fog development after midnight. A 20% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms especially after midnight. Low 62. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
New Year's Eve Day...Mostly Cloudy, Unseasonably Warm, Windy, & Humid with showers & thunderstorms developing & becoming likely as the day wears on. Locally heavy rainfall & some strong to severe thunderstorms are expected. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats late in the day. High 75. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
New Year's Eve Night...Cloudy & Continued Windy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely. Some locally heavy rainfall & severe storms possible with damaging winds & isolated tornadoes the main threat. Rains tapering off after midnight & turning much cooler. Low 45. SSW wind around 20 mph becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty overnight. Chance of rain 80%.
New Year's Day...Mostly Cloudy & Much Cooler w/ a 30% chance of rain mainly in the morning. Windy. Clouds beginning to decrease in the afternoon. High 58. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Thursday 12/30/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Areas of Fog
Temp: 59
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 66
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
Noon
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 16
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 20
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 17
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 67
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
12-30-10
Low: 59
High: 74
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
12-31-10
New Year's Eve
Low: 62
High: 75
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
1-1-11
New Year's Day
Low: 45
High: 58
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Sunday
1-2-11
Low: 36
High: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Monday
1-3-11
Low: 33
High: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Tuesday
1-4-11
Low: 38
High: 60
Rain: 20%
Wind: ESE 5-10
Wednesday
1-5-11
Low: 49
High: 67
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers and thunderstorms late in the evening...then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thursday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
New Year's Eve Day...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
New Year's Eve Night...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
New Year's Day...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Everything fell into place nicely on this last Wednesday of 2010. The widespread rain event unfolded right on cue as we got into the afternoon hours. The upper level feature out ahead of the main Pacific system has rolled across the area, and the advancing warm front is in transit as well. Thankfully, the severe weather aspect of things never materialized at least for most of the forecast area. The prospects of severe weather were an iffy proposition to begin with. Better dynamics and instability slowly worked their way into the area as forcing increased late this evening. Some severe weather occurred in the SE portion of the forecast area mainly in coastal areas from near Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge over towards New Iberia. The elongated troughiness is pulling East of the area, and rainfall is coming to an end from West to East tonight. Much needed rainfall has occurred across the area with many locations receiving a nice soaking in excess of 2". Isolated higher amounts near 4" have occurred in heavier clusters near the coast. It was almost strange to hear thunder and see the lightning since it has been many weeks since such an occurrence happened around these parts. Temperatures won't really drop much overnight, in fact they may rise slightly after midnight as warmer air works into the region behind the departed disturbance. Expect minimums to range from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area. In the wake of the rain, fog may become an issue by Thursday morning with areas of dense fog possible with plenty of residual moisture in place. This is quite common in a warm frontal environment. The already persistent onshore flow will continue.Today's rains will at least take away any thought of enduring the driest December on record, but we are still mired in an extreme drought situation.
There is not much change in the forecast philosophy from 24 hours ago. We will still endure a lull on Thursday as we will be in between weather systems. Today's rain maker will continue lifting out to our E and NE and weaken as it does so. However, we will turn our attention to the West. A rather potent Pacific storm will be coming down the pipe. A warm air advection regime will be in place Thursday. We will be dry slotted at the surface, and drier air will temporarily reside in the mid and upper levels. This will keep rain chances on the slim side with no presence of a trigger mechanism to generate more widespread rain. I certainly can't totally eliminate rain chances with the presence of the deep low level moisture over the area. Only scattered activity is expected mainly due to the effects of daytime heating and later in the day as moisture begins to pool over the region, and convergence starts to increase ahead of the advancing storm system. It will be much warmer on Thursday afternoon with high temperatures easily surpassing the 70 degree threshold. It could ultimately get as warm as the mid 70s across the area, and it won't feel much like the end of December. It will be on the breezy side as well due to the pressure anomalies driven by the orientation of the two weather systems. Expect a long fetch Southerly flow to remain in place across the area with gusts over 20 mph at times. Skies will generally be Mostly Cloudy, but certainly a few peeks of sun are expected in the dry slot. Very similar conditions will be in place for Thursday night, but the rain chances will increase a bit with convergence increasing ahead of the Pacific storm. Overnight lows will be on the mild side, and will more or less be what the normal high should be for this time of year. Overnight minimums will be in the lower 60s heading into Friday.
That takes us to Friday, New Year's Eve...The second round of rain and storms will affect the area at this time. There is not much change in the forecast reasoning for this period either. The day will start relatively calm with perhaps some patchy fog and the unseasonable warmth. Skies will generally be Partly to Mostly Cloudy to start the day. The strong storm system and its associated cold front, and surface low will progress Eastward. There will also be a dry line feature associated with this front. This will develop over Texas Friday morning as the Jet Stream becomes active. The very potent upper trough will send the combination dry line, cold front towards the area. Moisture will pool over the area, and low level convergence will increase in earnest. The imposing synoptic features will cause weakening of the mid and upper level cap. Showers and thunderstorms will develop as the day progresses. Most of the morning will be dry, but during the afternoon convection will develop and work its way into the area. It should generally be of a scattered nature at first, but by mid to late afternoon activity should become more widespread. The Jet Stream dynamics will stream right over the area, and the forecast area is likely to be in the favorable right front quadrant of the Jet Stream by Friday evening. The strong onshore flow at the surface, and strong SW winds aloft will generate windy conditions ahead of the boundary. The chances for showers & storms will ramp up into the likely category yet again likely after about 3p.m. on New Years Eve, and remain high into the overnight hours.
Your New Year's Eve plans may need to be altered as it stands right now. The most likely time frame to see showers & thunderstorms will likely be between 4p.m. and midnight. Given better dynamics and instability, a greater chance of severe weather will exist with the main system on Friday. All modes of severe weather will be possible, but damaging winds seem like the most likely form. Isolated tornadoes certainly can't be ruled out given the favorable set up for wind shear over the area. Large hail is also in the mix. I am certainly more concerned about the prospects of severe weather during this time since many will be away from their TV or radio and out celebrating for New Years. I strongly suggest having a way to keep yourself informed of any threatening weather conditions. Being able to have your own fireworks display, looks like an iffy proposition at this time given the timing of this rain event. This will certainly be another widespread rain event, and another 1-2" of rain is expected area wide. Isolated higher amounts closer to 3" are possible. We are close enough to the event now that narrowing down a time of arrival is within reason. I will stick with a frontal passage before midnight, with the worst of the weather in the previously mentioned 8 hour window from 4p.m. Friday afternoon to around midnight Saturday New Year's Day. Of course, further revisions are expected tomorrow as new model data becomes available. The unseasonable warmth will be with us to close out 2010 as highs reach the mid 70s on Friday. It will turn sharply colder in the wake of the front overnight Friday. A storng CAA regime will establish itself as we start the new year, and waking up on New Year's Day it will be much cooler with morning lows generally in the mid 40s to around 50 or so. This cold front will not be nearly as strong as the predecessor was over Christmas weekend, but we will certainly chill down once again. The threat for strong to severe storms will come to an end in the overnight hours with the frontal working into the coastal waters.
Clouds and the chance for showers will linger in the post-frontal environment on New Year's Day. The colder and more stable air will filter into the region at the surface, but moisture will remain trapped in the boundary layer due to the shallow nature of the surface cold front. We will also have wrap-around moisture associated with the backside upper level low to deal with across the area. This means that a chance for rain will continue well into the day on New Year's Day before much improvement is noted. Expect the cloudiness and periodic shower activity to be in place with CAA continuing. Temperatures will not rise all that much at all on New Year's Day given continued CAA and the continued cloud cover and chance for post-frontal rains. A very small diurnal range is to be expected with highs only topping out in the mid 50s or so. A strong offshore flow will be locked in place over the area. Conditions improve further into the afternoon hours as high pressure sliding down the front range of the Rockies begins to build into the forecast area. This will clean out the moisture in the mid and upper levels as the cold front drives further into the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the chances of lingering rain will cease and desist by mid and late afternoon. Cloud cover will slowly begin to exit stage right as well. Clear skies will take over by New Year's Night with the high pressure firmly entrenched over the NW Gulf Coastal Plain. Seasonably cold temperatures are on tap with morning lows by Sunday back down into the 30s once again. The offshore flow will slowly decrease in intensity overnight as the high builds in.
Quiet weather is on tap for Sunday and Monday with the high pressure in control. Once again, this air mass is not terribly cold so nothing out of the ordinary is expected. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 30s on average with clear skies and lighter winds in place. Plentiful sunshine is expected for the second half of New Year's weekend with high pressure in control. It will be seasonably cool even in the afternoon with highs falling short of the normal 60 degree threshold. More of the same is expected for Monday with the high pressure essentially anchored very near SW Louisiana. Monday morning looks to be the coldest one of this forecast period with lows close to freezing along I-10. Many locations north of the interstate will likely endure a light freeze, but this is nothing drastic compared to the hard freezes we've dealt with this month. The high pressure will only slowly work its way Eastward, so while CAA ceases, a very light Easterly flow will set up due to the orientation of the surface high. Afternoon highs may be a tick or two cooler than that of Sunday, but they won't be far off given the seasonably cool air mass in place, and the low sun angle during the month of January. There will also more than likely be a bout of frost on Monday morning, so an early word to the wise here to protect your pets and your tender vegetation. I certainly don't see any hard freezes in the near future, so pipes will not be an issue this go around.
Cloud cover may begin to return on Monday night. The New Year's cold front will likely stall out and hover over the coastal waters. This front may begin to lift back Northward as warm front beginning Tuesday. An advance of cloudiness will stream over the area Monday night. This cloud mass will likely keep us more insulated than a normal early January night would be in this situation. Thus, air mass modification should begin even though there won't be a classic return flow set up in place yet. It should remain dry as the high pressure keeps its grip over the area for a little while longer. Clouds will increase more significantly on Tuesday. Deeper moisture may quickly return on Tuesday afternoon as the slow moving warm front evacuates the coastal waters and moves back towards land. This could allow for a slight chance of showers & thunderstorms by the afternoon hours, but a major rain event appears unlikely at this time for Tuesday. I should pause just a moment to say that some of the forecast models still suggest the development of a prolonged overrunning event behind the front. I am still not totally convinced on this perception. It seems certain that our next temperature modification trend will be up at this time more than likely. Morning lows will continue to be seasonably cold with readings generally in the mid to upper 30s over the area. Tuesday afternoon highs should be very close to 60 degree norm. I fully expect the return flow to establish itself during the day. Better rain chances come at the end of this forecast period on Wednesday. The combination of the lifting warm front, and a system with Pacific origins pulls to the East overrunning seems be a more likely scenario. If the trends continue, rain chances could ultimately wind up in the likely category, but since this is at the end of the forecast period just chance pops will suffice for now. It is also too early to suggest whether or not thunderstorms will even be a possibility at this juncture. Given the look shown by models suggesting overrunning, thunder seems like a localized entity at best. Temperature modification will be likely with highs reaching the mid 60s easily. This will swing us back towards above normal. This period will have the potential to see a prolonged rain event, but a lot of uncertainties are in existence. Models show the best chance for showers & some thunderstorms coming just beyond the scope of this forecast package. Another cold front is advertised around the end of next week with rain chances continuing until then. Expect there to be many revisions in the coming days.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 59/74 62/75 45/58 80 20 30 70 80 30
LFT 57/74 61/76 46/59 90 30 20 70 80 30
BPT 61/75 64/75 44/61 80 20 30 70 80 30
AEX 55/73 59/73 40/55 90 30 20 80 80 30
POE 55/73 59/74 41/56 80 20 30 80 80 30
ARA 58/74 60/75 48/60 90 30 20 70 80 30
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy w/ Showers & Thunderstorms likely early, but ending from West to East as the nigh progresses. Warmer. Low 59. Fog developing after midnight. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 80% early, but dropping to 20% towards morning.
Thursday...Areas of fog early, otherwise Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of scattered Showers & Thunderstorms. High 74. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Thursday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ some Patchy Fog development after midnight. A 20% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms especially after midnight. Low 62. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
New Year's Eve Day...Mostly Cloudy, Unseasonably Warm, Windy, & Humid with showers & thunderstorms developing & becoming likely as the day wears on. Locally heavy rainfall & some strong to severe thunderstorms are expected. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats late in the day. High 75. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
New Year's Eve Night...Cloudy & Continued Windy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely. Some locally heavy rainfall & severe storms possible with damaging winds & isolated tornadoes the main threat. Rains tapering off after midnight & turning much cooler. Low 45. SSW wind around 20 mph becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty overnight. Chance of rain 80%.
New Year's Day...Mostly Cloudy & Much Cooler w/ a 30% chance of rain mainly in the morning. Windy. Clouds beginning to decrease in the afternoon. High 58. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Thursday 12/30/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Areas of Fog
Temp: 59
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 66
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
Noon
Weather: Cloudy
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 16
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 20
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 17
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 67
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
12-30-10
Low: 59
High: 74
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
12-31-10
New Year's Eve
Low: 62
High: 75
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
1-1-11
New Year's Day
Low: 45
High: 58
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Sunday
1-2-11
Low: 36
High: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Monday
1-3-11
Low: 33
High: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Tuesday
1-4-11
Low: 38
High: 60
Rain: 20%
Wind: ESE 5-10
Wednesday
1-5-11
Low: 49
High: 67
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers and thunderstorms late in the evening...then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thursday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
New Year's Eve Day...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
New Year's Eve Night...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
New Year's Day...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Rain & Thunderstorms Likely Wednesday...Stormy Start to New Year?
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
I hope everyone had a very merry and blessed Christmas. The blog returns on this Monday after Christmas. I will keep it in holiday mode through New Years weekend. That means, there will not be a video blog, and some sections of the text block will be omitted. Also, there is a possibility of severe weather later this week (Wednesday & again late Friday night into Saturday (New Years)). Should a severe threat materialize then there will be more frequent blog updates. Stay tuned for more on this developing situation.
Sometime over the course of this week or early next week depending on if the weather cooperates, I will post the top 10 weather events of 2010 on a local and national level. I will keep you updated as to when this will be posted. Thanks to all who view this blog, and please help keep spreading the word. I am the weather authority in SW Louisiana, leave no doubt about that. You need not look to anyone else for your weather information, and that will remain the case in 2011. I wish everyone all the best in the coming year, and once again I hope you had a very nice Christmas. Happy New Year! See the forecast below.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The cold weather is gone at least for the rest of 2010. In what has been one of the driest years and Decembers on record, the fact that it appears that both the month and the year will end on wet notes seems a little ironic. However, that is exactly what we have to look forward to over the final 3 days of 2010. Specifics are forthcoming. First, here in the short-term, a quiet weather regime will remain locked in place tonight. WAA is ongoing as Southerly winds now encompass the entire area. Air mass modification has taken over in earnest. There will no threat of freezing temperatures anywhere in the area tonight. After a day which featured an increase in clouds and low level moisture, the same will hold true tonight. Overnight lows will generally be around seasonal levels with readings in the 40s. Some patchy fog can't be ruled out after midnight with the presence of the return flow over the area. Generally overcast skies will be expected tonight. Our next rain maker, and our most significant rain event of this month moves in on Wednesday.
A combination of factors will lead to this much needed rainfall across the entire area. A warm front that developed over the Gulf of Mexico and an embedded short wave (disturbance) will be ejecting Eastward across Texas, and affecting this forecast area Wednesday. These systems will work in tandem to produce widespread rainfall across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the morning hours on Wednesday, and move into the forecast area as the day progresses. Rainfall will increase in coverage and intensity as the advecting short wave taps into the available Gulf energy. The warm front and attendant weak surface low will push NE into and through the forecast area. Rain will be widespread and total rainfall amounts will likely be around an inch or so with the possibility of two inches in some locales. Severe weather doesn't appear to be a likely entity at this juncture, however, there will be the presence of enough instability and low-level wind shear especially along and South of the I-10 corridor Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night such that some isolated severe storms may occur. The main threats will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. A word to the wise would be to keep a watchful eye to the sky, and to check back here for further updates throughout the day Wednesday. It is also a good idea to set your NOAA Weather Radio to alert mode. Moisture will build across the area in advance of the system, so with the ample low level moisture in place and plenty of dynamics and lifting in place expect the favorable set up for the widespread rain event. Shower activity will be scattered initially during the morning hours, and quickly ramp up into the likely category after lunch. The window of opportunity for the aforementioned severe weather will be a small one. I have narrowed this time frame down to between about 4p.m. and 10p.m. as the main thrust of this weather maker affects the region at this time. Rain chances will nearly max out for Wednesday, and a much milder temperature regime is on tap. Expect highs to approach 70 with the widespread convective activity. The ongoing Southerly flow will prevail, and only become more pronounced as the day wears on.
The high end rain chances continue into Wednesday night before tapering off overnight. The embedded disturbance will ultimately lift out to our NE along with the weak surface low and warm front. This will bring in a more stable air mass and a dry slot across the region. We will remain in a WAA pattern in the wake of the previously mentioned synoptic features, but the timing of the system should eliminate any adverse weather conditions for the late night/early morning hours when severe weather is often the most dangerous (because most people are sleeping). I certainly can't eliminate the chances for showers and thunderstorms all together after midnight, but the widespread rain event should have ended heading into Thursday morning. Rain chances will be in the 60-70% range before midnight dropping to about 30-40% after midnight. Overcast skies will prevail, and some fog may develop after the rain comes to an end. Mild weather is in the offing with low temperatures returning to above normal levels in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all. We will be between weather systems on Thursday. It will not exactly be a nice day, however. Don't expect any kind of clearing behind Wednesday's weather maker. A forecast of more clouds than sun will be depicted for Thursday with a deep tropical flow from the Gulf of Mexico continuing to reside over the state. The high octane low-level moisture in place and the effects of daytime heating will keep the chance for some scattered convection in the forecast. Widespread rainfall is not expected for Thursday with drier air in the boundary layer and a lack of instability or any kind of lifting mechanism. It will be a day to don short sleeves with high temperatures reaching the uncharacteristically warm 70s across the board. It will be a bit on the breezy side as well as the next storm system gets its act together downstream, and previous system keeps moving further away. The pressure differences will try to equalize right over the area, thus the reason for the expectant windy conditions.
By Thursday night we will turn our attention to our next strong cold front. It will be in transit by this period. It will be a front that has origins in Canada. Deeper moisture will continue to overspread the area on Thursday night. This will keep the chance for some scattered activity in place. The late December mildness will continue with low temperatures not falling below the 60 degree mark. This means the minimum values will be closer to what the maximum values should be at the end of the year. Friday is, of course, New Year's Eve. Many people will undoubtedly have plans to ring in the new year. The big question is will Mother Nature cooperate. At this time this is still an iffy proposition as far as being able to go about your outdoor plans and not have to worry about some of Mother Nature's fireworks. Rain chances will quickly edge up into the likely category once again as we head into Friday afternoon. Moisture will pool over the area in the pre-frontal environs. Jet Stream dynamics will move right overhead, and this will place Louisiana in the favorable right-front quadrant. The RFQ is typically one of the most favorable areas for severe weather to occur. Certainly, a widespread rain event will occur once again. Additional Jet Stream energy may also initiate surface cyclogenesis at the base of the cold front. Convergence will rapidly increase Friday afternoon, thus rain and some thunderstorms will congregate about the forecast area. The year ends on an unseasonably warm note with highs reaching the mid 70s. I wouldn't rule out some upper 70s if there is a bit more sunshine than expected.
As we head into Friday night and New Years Eve itself, here comes the front! Instability will increase, and many of the parameters necessary to produce severe weather may come together. The threat for severe weather during this time frame looks a bit more likely than the first episode does on Wednesday afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible, though I surmise that damaging winds will be the biggest threat. I expect a squall line or MCS to develop along the cold front over Texas, and then intensify as it moves Eastward into Louisiana overnight. Certainly, scattered activity will develop over the Gulf and stream inland and intensify out ahead of the main line. This streamer activity will feed into the already very dynamic system. There is still tons of speculation as to the exact timing of the cold front. Most model runs suggest it will cross in the overnight hours between midnight and 6a.m. Saturday, but each run is either a bit slower or faster with the cold front. It will be another day or two before I can clarify with more specificity a smaller time frame for frontal passage to occur. I can't guarantee anyone that your own personal fireworks display will be able to occur given the prospects of rain. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into the very early hours of the new year on Saturday. The severe weather threat will likely begin before sunset Friday and continue at least until around midnight if not a bit later. The greatest forcing and instability will come right along the front itself. In addition to the prospects of severe weather, heavy rain is also in the mix. Another significant rain event on the order of 1-2" is expected during this time. We will certainly get the opportunity to add to our monthly rainfall totals. This may very well keep us from enduring the driest December on record around here. We are 23" behind in rainfall for 2010, so this will definitely go down as one of the driest years ever in South Louisiana, but we should at least have a chance to chip into the deficit just a bit. I will take another gander at all of this tomorrow, so check back for further revisions.
Once the front flies by early on New Years Day, the severe weather threat ends and much cooler air filters into the region. Conditions will improve beyond this point. However, rain chances will carry into the daylight hours on Saturday. A cooler, stable air mass will be filtering into the region at the surface thanks to CAA in the wake of said frontal boundary. However, boundary layer moisture will remain in place for awhile longer as the drier and cooler air in the mid and upper levels lags behind. Expect cloudy skies to continue. Morning temperatures will certainly be cooler than that of Friday. Most readings to start our New Years Day and 2011 will be in the mid 40s to around 50 depending upon your proximity to the cold front. The cold air will be deeper the further inland you go, and more shallow the closer you get to the coast. Rain chances will drop out of the likely category in the pre-dawn hours on Saturday, and fall into the chance category (30-40%) for the remainder of the morning. This brief period of overrunning comes to an end during the day Saturday, and conditions will improve further once the dry and colder air arrives in the mid and upper levels. Skies will slowly clear as the day progresses. It will feel much better outside as well. CAA will negate daytime heating for the most part as high temperatures only reach the low to mid 50s at best across the area. It will quite breezy as well with strong Northerly winds in place behind the front, so it will feel like it's in the 40s all day. That may not be of concern to you at all, though, since many of us will be inside watching football all day for New Year's Day. (count me in on that deal)
After an active stretch of weather these next 4 days, it will be a lot calmer for the rest of New Years weekend. Clear skies and cool temperatures are expected into Monday as high pressure orients itself across the NW Gulf Coastal Plain. CAA will continue in earnest on New Years Night. It should be a seasonably cold night across the area with temps dropping to near freezing from about Hwy. 190 northward with mid to upper 30s south of there. The winds will only slowly decouple as high pressure builds in. Sunday should be a nice but cool day. Plenty of sunshine is expected, but high temperatures won't make it out of the 50s with the modified Canadian air mass in place. The coldest morning this go around looks to be on Monday when everyone is heading back to work and school after the Christmas/New Years holiday break. The high pressure should be situated very close to our area allowing for calm winds and clear skies. This will set the stage for a radiative cooling night on Sunday night into Monday morning. A light freeze is possible for much of the area with some upper 20s for Cenla. It will be very close to freezing, give or take a degree, here in the Lake Area. This air mass is not nearly as cold as the one we are coming out of tonight. Monday should be a fairly nice day with dry weather continuing with the effects of high pressure in control. However, we will be watching the old front over the Gulf. This front looks to stall out somewhere in the coastal waters likely on Sunday. The progressive pattern over the contiguous 48 states may help to re-activate this front, and send it in the opposite by Tuesday. This may induce WAA over the forecast area, and enhance air mass modification. A noticeable increase in clouds is expected, and some forecast models conjure up a prolonged period of overrunning for the first part of next week. I am not ready to get wrapped up into this just yet, but I will reflect an increase in clouds by Tuesday along with the beginnings of our next warm up. All of this will be re-assessed on tomorrow's forecast package. The key things to focus on at this point in time are the significant rain events between now and New Years, and the prospects of severe weather Wednesday evening and Friday night.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 45/67 59/73 62/74 10 80 80 30 30 70
LFT 43/66 58/73 61/75 10 70 80 30 30 70
BPT 48/69 61/74 63/76 20 80 80 30 30 70
AEX 41/63 52/71 59/73 10 80 80 20 30 70
POE 41/63 52/71 59/73 10 80 80 20 30 70
ARA 44/66 60/73 63/74 10 70 80 30 30 70
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Not as Cold. Low 45. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Cloudy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely by afternoon. Isolated severe storms possible late in the day. High 67. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy w showers & thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall & isolated severe storms possible. Rains tapering off after midnight. Much warmer. Low 59. SSE wind 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Thursday...Mostly Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm w/a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 73. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm w/ a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms especially after midnight. Low 62. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
New Year's Eve...Mostly Cloudy & Windy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely. Severe weather & locally heavy rainfall possible especially in the afternoon. High 74. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday 12/29/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 45
Rain: 10%
Wind: SE 8
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 53
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 12
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Rain Developing
Temp: 62
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 13
3p.m.
Weather: Rain & T-Storms Likely
Temp: 67
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: T-Storms Likely. Isolated Severe Weather Possible.
Temp: 65
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15
9p.m.
Weather: Rain & T-Storms
Temp: 62
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 13
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
12-29-10
Low: 45
High: 67
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
12-30-10
Low: 59
High: 73
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
12-31-10
New Year's Eve
Low: 62
High: 74
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 20-25
Saturday
1-1-11
New Year's Day
Low: 48
High: 55
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 15-25
W.C.: 40s
Sunday
1-2-11
Low: 36
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 30-45
Monday
1-3-11
Low: 32
High: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
Tuesday
1-4-11
Low: 38
High: 60
Rain: 10%
Wind: E 10
W.C.: 30-40
...Marine Forecast...
Rough conditions are developing offshore in advance of our next storm system. A warm front and upper level disturbance will work in tandem to produce a period of storminess across the area on Wednesday. This storm will agitate the coastal waters thus leading to less than ideal conditions for offshore activities. Look for the active period of marine weather to continue into the weekend as another cold front moves into the coastal waters on New Years Day.
*Small Craft Advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon.*
Tonight...Southeast 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday...South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Friday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Good night & God bless!
-DM-
I hope everyone had a very merry and blessed Christmas. The blog returns on this Monday after Christmas. I will keep it in holiday mode through New Years weekend. That means, there will not be a video blog, and some sections of the text block will be omitted. Also, there is a possibility of severe weather later this week (Wednesday & again late Friday night into Saturday (New Years)). Should a severe threat materialize then there will be more frequent blog updates. Stay tuned for more on this developing situation.
Sometime over the course of this week or early next week depending on if the weather cooperates, I will post the top 10 weather events of 2010 on a local and national level. I will keep you updated as to when this will be posted. Thanks to all who view this blog, and please help keep spreading the word. I am the weather authority in SW Louisiana, leave no doubt about that. You need not look to anyone else for your weather information, and that will remain the case in 2011. I wish everyone all the best in the coming year, and once again I hope you had a very nice Christmas. Happy New Year! See the forecast below.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The cold weather is gone at least for the rest of 2010. In what has been one of the driest years and Decembers on record, the fact that it appears that both the month and the year will end on wet notes seems a little ironic. However, that is exactly what we have to look forward to over the final 3 days of 2010. Specifics are forthcoming. First, here in the short-term, a quiet weather regime will remain locked in place tonight. WAA is ongoing as Southerly winds now encompass the entire area. Air mass modification has taken over in earnest. There will no threat of freezing temperatures anywhere in the area tonight. After a day which featured an increase in clouds and low level moisture, the same will hold true tonight. Overnight lows will generally be around seasonal levels with readings in the 40s. Some patchy fog can't be ruled out after midnight with the presence of the return flow over the area. Generally overcast skies will be expected tonight. Our next rain maker, and our most significant rain event of this month moves in on Wednesday.
A combination of factors will lead to this much needed rainfall across the entire area. A warm front that developed over the Gulf of Mexico and an embedded short wave (disturbance) will be ejecting Eastward across Texas, and affecting this forecast area Wednesday. These systems will work in tandem to produce widespread rainfall across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the morning hours on Wednesday, and move into the forecast area as the day progresses. Rainfall will increase in coverage and intensity as the advecting short wave taps into the available Gulf energy. The warm front and attendant weak surface low will push NE into and through the forecast area. Rain will be widespread and total rainfall amounts will likely be around an inch or so with the possibility of two inches in some locales. Severe weather doesn't appear to be a likely entity at this juncture, however, there will be the presence of enough instability and low-level wind shear especially along and South of the I-10 corridor Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night such that some isolated severe storms may occur. The main threats will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. A word to the wise would be to keep a watchful eye to the sky, and to check back here for further updates throughout the day Wednesday. It is also a good idea to set your NOAA Weather Radio to alert mode. Moisture will build across the area in advance of the system, so with the ample low level moisture in place and plenty of dynamics and lifting in place expect the favorable set up for the widespread rain event. Shower activity will be scattered initially during the morning hours, and quickly ramp up into the likely category after lunch. The window of opportunity for the aforementioned severe weather will be a small one. I have narrowed this time frame down to between about 4p.m. and 10p.m. as the main thrust of this weather maker affects the region at this time. Rain chances will nearly max out for Wednesday, and a much milder temperature regime is on tap. Expect highs to approach 70 with the widespread convective activity. The ongoing Southerly flow will prevail, and only become more pronounced as the day wears on.
The high end rain chances continue into Wednesday night before tapering off overnight. The embedded disturbance will ultimately lift out to our NE along with the weak surface low and warm front. This will bring in a more stable air mass and a dry slot across the region. We will remain in a WAA pattern in the wake of the previously mentioned synoptic features, but the timing of the system should eliminate any adverse weather conditions for the late night/early morning hours when severe weather is often the most dangerous (because most people are sleeping). I certainly can't eliminate the chances for showers and thunderstorms all together after midnight, but the widespread rain event should have ended heading into Thursday morning. Rain chances will be in the 60-70% range before midnight dropping to about 30-40% after midnight. Overcast skies will prevail, and some fog may develop after the rain comes to an end. Mild weather is in the offing with low temperatures returning to above normal levels in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all. We will be between weather systems on Thursday. It will not exactly be a nice day, however. Don't expect any kind of clearing behind Wednesday's weather maker. A forecast of more clouds than sun will be depicted for Thursday with a deep tropical flow from the Gulf of Mexico continuing to reside over the state. The high octane low-level moisture in place and the effects of daytime heating will keep the chance for some scattered convection in the forecast. Widespread rainfall is not expected for Thursday with drier air in the boundary layer and a lack of instability or any kind of lifting mechanism. It will be a day to don short sleeves with high temperatures reaching the uncharacteristically warm 70s across the board. It will be a bit on the breezy side as well as the next storm system gets its act together downstream, and previous system keeps moving further away. The pressure differences will try to equalize right over the area, thus the reason for the expectant windy conditions.
By Thursday night we will turn our attention to our next strong cold front. It will be in transit by this period. It will be a front that has origins in Canada. Deeper moisture will continue to overspread the area on Thursday night. This will keep the chance for some scattered activity in place. The late December mildness will continue with low temperatures not falling below the 60 degree mark. This means the minimum values will be closer to what the maximum values should be at the end of the year. Friday is, of course, New Year's Eve. Many people will undoubtedly have plans to ring in the new year. The big question is will Mother Nature cooperate. At this time this is still an iffy proposition as far as being able to go about your outdoor plans and not have to worry about some of Mother Nature's fireworks. Rain chances will quickly edge up into the likely category once again as we head into Friday afternoon. Moisture will pool over the area in the pre-frontal environs. Jet Stream dynamics will move right overhead, and this will place Louisiana in the favorable right-front quadrant. The RFQ is typically one of the most favorable areas for severe weather to occur. Certainly, a widespread rain event will occur once again. Additional Jet Stream energy may also initiate surface cyclogenesis at the base of the cold front. Convergence will rapidly increase Friday afternoon, thus rain and some thunderstorms will congregate about the forecast area. The year ends on an unseasonably warm note with highs reaching the mid 70s. I wouldn't rule out some upper 70s if there is a bit more sunshine than expected.
As we head into Friday night and New Years Eve itself, here comes the front! Instability will increase, and many of the parameters necessary to produce severe weather may come together. The threat for severe weather during this time frame looks a bit more likely than the first episode does on Wednesday afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible, though I surmise that damaging winds will be the biggest threat. I expect a squall line or MCS to develop along the cold front over Texas, and then intensify as it moves Eastward into Louisiana overnight. Certainly, scattered activity will develop over the Gulf and stream inland and intensify out ahead of the main line. This streamer activity will feed into the already very dynamic system. There is still tons of speculation as to the exact timing of the cold front. Most model runs suggest it will cross in the overnight hours between midnight and 6a.m. Saturday, but each run is either a bit slower or faster with the cold front. It will be another day or two before I can clarify with more specificity a smaller time frame for frontal passage to occur. I can't guarantee anyone that your own personal fireworks display will be able to occur given the prospects of rain. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into the very early hours of the new year on Saturday. The severe weather threat will likely begin before sunset Friday and continue at least until around midnight if not a bit later. The greatest forcing and instability will come right along the front itself. In addition to the prospects of severe weather, heavy rain is also in the mix. Another significant rain event on the order of 1-2" is expected during this time. We will certainly get the opportunity to add to our monthly rainfall totals. This may very well keep us from enduring the driest December on record around here. We are 23" behind in rainfall for 2010, so this will definitely go down as one of the driest years ever in South Louisiana, but we should at least have a chance to chip into the deficit just a bit. I will take another gander at all of this tomorrow, so check back for further revisions.
Once the front flies by early on New Years Day, the severe weather threat ends and much cooler air filters into the region. Conditions will improve beyond this point. However, rain chances will carry into the daylight hours on Saturday. A cooler, stable air mass will be filtering into the region at the surface thanks to CAA in the wake of said frontal boundary. However, boundary layer moisture will remain in place for awhile longer as the drier and cooler air in the mid and upper levels lags behind. Expect cloudy skies to continue. Morning temperatures will certainly be cooler than that of Friday. Most readings to start our New Years Day and 2011 will be in the mid 40s to around 50 depending upon your proximity to the cold front. The cold air will be deeper the further inland you go, and more shallow the closer you get to the coast. Rain chances will drop out of the likely category in the pre-dawn hours on Saturday, and fall into the chance category (30-40%) for the remainder of the morning. This brief period of overrunning comes to an end during the day Saturday, and conditions will improve further once the dry and colder air arrives in the mid and upper levels. Skies will slowly clear as the day progresses. It will feel much better outside as well. CAA will negate daytime heating for the most part as high temperatures only reach the low to mid 50s at best across the area. It will quite breezy as well with strong Northerly winds in place behind the front, so it will feel like it's in the 40s all day. That may not be of concern to you at all, though, since many of us will be inside watching football all day for New Year's Day. (count me in on that deal)
After an active stretch of weather these next 4 days, it will be a lot calmer for the rest of New Years weekend. Clear skies and cool temperatures are expected into Monday as high pressure orients itself across the NW Gulf Coastal Plain. CAA will continue in earnest on New Years Night. It should be a seasonably cold night across the area with temps dropping to near freezing from about Hwy. 190 northward with mid to upper 30s south of there. The winds will only slowly decouple as high pressure builds in. Sunday should be a nice but cool day. Plenty of sunshine is expected, but high temperatures won't make it out of the 50s with the modified Canadian air mass in place. The coldest morning this go around looks to be on Monday when everyone is heading back to work and school after the Christmas/New Years holiday break. The high pressure should be situated very close to our area allowing for calm winds and clear skies. This will set the stage for a radiative cooling night on Sunday night into Monday morning. A light freeze is possible for much of the area with some upper 20s for Cenla. It will be very close to freezing, give or take a degree, here in the Lake Area. This air mass is not nearly as cold as the one we are coming out of tonight. Monday should be a fairly nice day with dry weather continuing with the effects of high pressure in control. However, we will be watching the old front over the Gulf. This front looks to stall out somewhere in the coastal waters likely on Sunday. The progressive pattern over the contiguous 48 states may help to re-activate this front, and send it in the opposite by Tuesday. This may induce WAA over the forecast area, and enhance air mass modification. A noticeable increase in clouds is expected, and some forecast models conjure up a prolonged period of overrunning for the first part of next week. I am not ready to get wrapped up into this just yet, but I will reflect an increase in clouds by Tuesday along with the beginnings of our next warm up. All of this will be re-assessed on tomorrow's forecast package. The key things to focus on at this point in time are the significant rain events between now and New Years, and the prospects of severe weather Wednesday evening and Friday night.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 45/67 59/73 62/74 10 80 80 30 30 70
BPT 48/69 61/74 63/76 20 80 80 30 30 70
AEX 41/63 52/71 59/73 10 80 80 20 30 70
POE 41/63 52/71 59/73 10 80 80 20 30 70
ARA 44/66 60/73 63/74 10 70 80 30 30 70
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Not as Cold. Low 45. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Cloudy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely by afternoon. Isolated severe storms possible late in the day. High 67. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy w showers & thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall & isolated severe storms possible. Rains tapering off after midnight. Much warmer. Low 59. SSE wind 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Thursday...Mostly Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm w/a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 73. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm w/ a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms especially after midnight. Low 62. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
New Year's Eve...Mostly Cloudy & Windy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely. Severe weather & locally heavy rainfall possible especially in the afternoon. High 74. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday 12/29/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 45
Rain: 10%
Wind: SE 8
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 53
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 12
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Rain Developing
Temp: 62
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 13
3p.m.
Weather: Rain & T-Storms Likely
Temp: 67
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: T-Storms Likely. Isolated Severe Weather Possible.
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15
9p.m.
Weather: Rain & T-Storms
Temp: 62
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 13
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
12-29-10
Low: 45
High: 67
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
12-30-10
Low: 59
High: 73
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
12-31-10
New Year's Eve
Low: 62
High: 74
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 20-25
Saturday
New Year's Day
Low: 48
High: 55
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 15-25
W.C.: 40s
Sunday
1-2-11
Low: 36
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 30-45
Monday
1-3-11
Low: 32
High: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
Tuesday
1-4-11
Low: 38
High: 60
Rain: 10%
Wind: E 10
W.C.: 30-40
...Marine Forecast...
Rough conditions are developing offshore in advance of our next storm system. A warm front and upper level disturbance will work in tandem to produce a period of storminess across the area on Wednesday. This storm will agitate the coastal waters thus leading to less than ideal conditions for offshore activities. Look for the active period of marine weather to continue into the weekend as another cold front moves into the coastal waters on New Years Day.
*Small Craft Advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon.*
Tonight...Southeast 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday...South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Friday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Good night & God bless!
-DM-
Friday, December 24, 2010
Cold & Wet Weather for Christmas Eve...Cold & Dry Christmas...
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Merry Christmas!!!
The forecast discussion is forthcoming. This is my last forecast package until after Christmas, so before we dive into the weather here's my Christmas message...
For Unto Us a Child Was Born...
Christmas is the most wonderful time of the year! It seems like 2010 was a really fast year! We have all dealt with our trials and tribulations over the year, but let us never forget there is always Someone to turn to. No matter what your situation there is one constant that has always been since it all began 2010 years ago! Christmas is a time when we celebrate being with our family and friends. It is a time to decorate our homes and offices with lights and trees, etc, and listen to the great music and watch movies associated with Christmas. The hustle and bustle of the Christmas season comes to an end on Christmas Eve, as all the shopping is done as we scrounge around town looking for the perfect gift for our loved ones. It is a time to pray, and attend church with our families, and reflect and be thankful for all of the blessings given us by God. The presents are nice, and the giving and receiving is nice, but we don't dare forget the real meaning of the season! For you see, 2010 years ago, we received the greatest Gift of all, the best and only Gift we'll ever need!
God loved us so much, the He gave us the gift of a Savior! His son, Jesus Christ...He gave us His one and only Son, so that whosoever believes in Him, will not perish, but will have eternal life! Jesus gave His life for us, to save us from eternal damnation! I can't think of a greater gift than knowing that Someone could love me that much, to die for me and take all of my transgressions away.
As we celebrate another Christmas, let us all remember that it isn't what we celebrate on this day, but Who. The Birth of Christ should be celebrated and lived inside each and everyone of us not only on Christmas, but on every day. I feel that in all the hustle and bustle of the Christmas season, that this, the most Significant reason, for the day is forgotten! This Christmas miracle that God made, is the single most significant story of all, and Christmas is the most significant day of the whole year! What/who would we be without God and without his Son, Jesus Christ? Do you know this Jesus I speak of? It seems that a minority is trying to control the majority these days...it's Happy Holidays instead of Merry Christmas! No, it's Merry Christmas, it's always has been, is now, and always will be! Yes, this is a free country, but no one can tell us believers that we can't say Merry Christmas anymore, or keep God first in our lives and in everything we do! They don't have to believe it, they have that right, but don't tell the Christians of this world that we can't express our faith and belief. To me, Happy Holidays means all the holidays...Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years, Hanukkah, etc. Merry Christmas! Keep Christ in Christmas!
I hope everyone truly does enjoy whatever you get for Christmas this year, and every year, but never forget the real reason for the season, and the fact that 2010 years ago on that first Christmas on a cold winter night in a small town called Bethlehem, you received the greatest Gift you'll ever need. As you gather with your family and friends this Christmas, don't forget to pray, and also remember those less fortunate than yourself. Also, lest not forget the brave men and women of the U.S. military, who fight for our freedoms everyday! Y'all truly are our other real heroes!
In closing, I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! I have so much to be thankful for, and I hope you do as well. May God's never-ending blessings be with all of you this Christmas, and forever. Happy Birthday to you, my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ! I hope 2011 brings everyone all the best, and that God continues to be at the forefront of your life. Thank you all for viewing the blog this year, and helping me getting it off the ground and running! Look for bigger and better things on this blog in 2011! I will have more forecasts posted before the end of the year, after a few days off for Christmas! Merry Christmas and God bless!
There is a video blog for this forecast. Look it just underneath this text. This will be the last video blog until after Christmas as well. Look for the next video blog posted on Monday, December 27. See the complete text form of the blog immediately following the video.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The warm spell from earlier in the week is a distant memory now as it should be as we head into Christmas. Any thought of warm weather is just that over the course of the next several days at least until the middle to latter half of next week. For those wanting cold weather for Christmas, our wish shall be fulfilled. Today was a seasonably cool day in the wake of the weak, dry cold front which pushed through on Wednesday. Clouds slowly decreased through the day, and the afternoon turned out quite nice for late December. Seasonably cold is the word for tonight as skies will be clear with a weak surface high in place. After highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s area wide this afternoon, temperatures will fall off nicely overnight reaching the mid to upper 30s by sunrise on our Christmas Eve. A light NE to E flow will be in place overnight due to the orientation of the surface high. The quiet weather will continue into Friday as this weak surface low quickly pushes Eastward. The day will dawn with Mostly Clear, but clouds will increase as the day wears on as the Southerly flow returns across the area. This will be in advance of a strong storm system that has wreaked havoc out West this week. This system is already currently in transit coming out the Desert SW and the Rockies. An associated trough will continue to sharpen and dig towards the area as well. Its attendant cold front will be approaching as we head into the evening hours on Friday. The low level flow returns with a vengeance, and quickly pumps in moist Gulf air over the area ahead of the front. Clouds will increase initially during the day, and forcing and instability will be on the rise as well by the evening hours. This spells a period of rain and a few thunderstorms across the region. We need the rain. The timing may not be the best for anyone traveling, but this is the cards we've been dealt. While most of the day will be dry, it will also seasonal again with highs climbing into the lower 60s after the chilly start.
The stage appears to be set for the first significant rainfall for the area this month. This whole thing will evolve quickly. The overall pattern will be shifting back to a NW flow from the present zonal flow across the area. Rain will begin to break out and expand in coverage and intensity late Friday evening into Christmas Eve night as the cold front approaches and convergence increases in the pre-frontal environment. The front works its way through the area between 6p.m. and midnight Christmas Eve. Rain will be likely in the overnight hours into Christmas morning. Rain could briefly be heavy as activity is enhanced due to a wave forming along the front in the Gulf (low). This low will help overspread moisture across the area. The surface low, cold front, and attendant upper level low will work in tandem to produce this rainy period. Santa Claus may need his windshield wipers and rain gear as he makes his way down from the Great White North. He may get here ahead of schedule on a strong tailwind. The brief onshore flow will be replaced by a strong offshore flow overnight as the sharp cold front slides into the coastal waters on Christmas morning. Rainfall amounts will generally be an inch or less, with amounts less than 1/2" expected North of I-10. The deepest moisture will be along and South of I-10 closer to the surface low, and in the area of greatest convergence. Mainly showers/rain are expected, but there will be enough instability in place that some thunderstorms may occur. There may be more instability in the post-frontal environment than in the pre-frontal environment such that there may be a greater risk of elevated convection than there will be of surface based convection. Either way, it's going to rain Christmas Eve into the early hours of Christmas Day. This will be a quick moving system, however, such that most of Christmas Day will be dry. CAA becomes re-established overnight as the front slides into the Gulf. Expect temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s across the area. You might want to take the rain gear with you if you are planning on heading out to church Christmas Eve. Though, it is likely that those attending midnight mass will endure a better risk of getting wet than those who go to evening services.
The rain will taper off and end on Christmas morning. It seems likely at this point that it will still be raining as the sun comes up, but we will be near the back edge of the rain by that time. The Gulf low will continue moving further East, and this will enhance the CAA over the area. This means that temperatures will have a hard time rising significantly on Christmas Day. It wouldn't surprise me at all if temperatures continue a slow fall in the wake of the surface low as we get deeper into the cold air. This cold air will be modified of course, but it will also be coming into the area from snow covered ground to our North. This helps keep the cold air well insulated, thus slowing down the modification process. Clouds will likely linger for much of the day on Christmas, but we should escape with dry weather for the majority of the day. Some decrease in clouds will be noted during the afternoon hours. We might begin to see a peak of sun or two by the time Christmas dinner is being served. Dry weather will be in place, so if you want to venture outside to break in your new toys and gifts it looks fine for that. Many of us may want to stay indoors be a cozy fire since it will remain on the cold side. The overcast conditions and CAA will result in a small diurnal range for or Christmas Day with highs likely not breaching the 50 degree mark. I am undercutting guidance as I feel it just doesn't handle this atmospheric set up very well. It will feel even colder due to gusty North winds in place thanks to the departing low and building high. A chance of rain is maintained in the morning hours tapering off from likely around sunrise to nothing by noon. High pressure will become the dominant weather feature for the remainder of Christmas weekend. A prolonged stretch of cold weather is in the offing.
High pressure takes full effect by the end of the day Christmas Day, and skies be clear over the entire area. High pressure will still be to our NW, so it will still be a bit breezy. Temperatures fall to near or just below freezing by Sunday morning. Upper 20s will be experienced in the coldest locations and near 30 to 32 will be realized here along I-10. The coast should avoid freezing temperatures to start the day on Sunday, but it will even be cold down there. Frost will not be an issue because of the wind. The strong offshore winds will create a wind chill. Expect these values to be in the 20s through the night. It will be a beautiful but cold second half of Christmas weekend. The Arctic high pressure will continue to move closer to the area. CAA will continue throughout the day on Sunday, and this process will try to offset the usual daytime heating processes. Expect maximum temperatures to be well below late December norms only reaching the mid to upper 40s across the area. It will remain quite cold despite nothing but sunshine. Winds decouple completely for Sunday night as the high pressure moves very close to the area. The stage will be set for an area wide freeze, with a hard freeze for the majority of the area. Expect temperatures to fall off into the mid 20s to near 30 across the area. Frost seems likely for Monday morning especially since winds will go nearly calm and clear skies will remain in place. The clear, cold, and quiet weather will take us into the final work days of the year. Monday will be full of sunshine but the noticeable nip in the air will reign supreme as well. Once again, high temperatures will remain below normal, but a subtle warming trend will begin at least for the afternoon hours with highs reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s, about 10 degrees or so below normal for late December.
CAA ceases on Monday, but the high pressure will remain in control. Super dry air will be in place, and low dew points and humidities will remain present. Clear skies and a very light offshore flow will be in place once again for Monday night, therefore, another freeze is expected on Tuesday morning. Tuesday morning could ultimately wind up being the coldest morning this go around. All areas should experience a freeze with hard freeze conditions possible even for the Lake Area. Mid 20s seem like a good call for the average low to start the day on Tuesday with lower 20s in the coldest locations. Upper 20s to near 30 are expected at the coast. Another beautiful late December day, perhaps the last cloud free day of 2010, is on tap for Tuesday. The strong area of high pressure will loosen its grip on SW Louisiana, and begin to slide Eastward into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley and the rest of the SE U.S. This will allow for the commencement of the return flow (Southerly winds) across our region. This will enhance the warm up. After the cold start on Tuesday expect temperatures to rebound quickly reaching the low to possibly middle 50s. The Arctic air will slowly begin to erode, however, it may take longer than some of the forecast models suggest as we get into the middle of next week. There is better agreement on when moisture will return to SW Louisiana.
Low level moisture will be the first thing to increase by Tuesday afternoon, and then clouds will follow suit by late in the day. Our next storm system will be developing by that time. Another Pacific storm system will be unraveling to our West, and at the same time additional Jet Stream energy will activate the old frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico. This front will begin to slowly trudge Northward heading into Wednesday. The atmospheric profile will become ideal for an overrunning situation overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. As the warm air lifts Northward it will initially ride up and over the slowly modifying cold air at the surface. This will moisten up the boundary layer and create an isentropic lift event. This could set the stage for a significant rain event in the waning days of the year. Rain chances will return to the forecast as early as Tuesday night and increase further on Wednesday when convergence increases. This rain will be a cold rain at first as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s by sunrise Wednesday. That is cold, but not cold enough for anything but rain even further inland. There will be a large plume of warm air that is lifted up and over this cold Arctic air. so the p-type will remain all liquid for all locations. It will be quite cold and raw with rain reaching the likely category by Wednesday. Some elevated convective activity is possible during the day Wednesday as the warm front lifts Northward. This front will move slowly, but further air mass modification will occur with highs topping out around 60, essentially back to normal. The warm front pulls inland late Wednesday, and much warmer and more humid weather returns as the warm sector envelopes the forecast area. All areas will be entrenched in warmer air by Thursday as the warm front lifts out of the forecast area. Rain chances will drop off a bit as we will between weather systems, but with plenty of deep low level moisture streaming into the area rain chances must be maintained through the end of the forecast period. Mostly Cloudy skies will prevail, and some patchy fog can't be ruled out by Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The temperature scheme will return to above normal with lows generally between 45 and 50 and highs approaching the 70 degree threshold. It is too early to speculate on how much rain will occur with this mid-week system, but it may shape up to be a significant rain event for our area in what will go down as one of the driest years and Decembers on record. We will hone in on this system with more specificity after Christmas. Looking toward New Years, the weather doesn't look all that promising for ringing in the New Year as it stands right now. Our next cold front is due in between New Years Eve and New Years Day morning. Timing issues are abundant at this stage of the game, but there is more than enough consistency at this point to suggest that it might be a rainy, even stormy end to 2010 and a stormy/wet beginning to 2011. This has the look of a severe weather potential, but again let's hone in on that with more specifics and clarity after Christmas. Enjoy Christmas first! Merry Christmas and Happy Birthday Jesus!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 37/63 44/47 30/48 0 0 80 40 0 0
LFT 36/63 45/48 29/48 0 0 80 40 0 0
BPT 39/65 46/50 31/49 0 0 80 30 0 0
AEX 32/62 38/45 26/47 0 0 80 40 0 0
POE 33/63 39/45 26/47 0 0 80 40 0 0
ARA 38/64 47/51 30/49 0 0 80 40 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Seasonably Cold. Low 37. Light NE wind.
Christmas Eve Day...Mostly Sunny early. Increasing Cloudiness through the day becoming Cloudy by late afternoon. High 63. East wind 10 mph.
Christmas Eve Night...Cloudy with rain likely along with a few thunderstorms. Rain becoming widespread by midnight. Windy. Low 44. SE wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 80%.
Christmas Day...Cloudy & Windy with a 40% chance of rain until around mid-morning. Skies clearing over the remainder of the day with skies becoming Sunny in the afternoon. Much colder. High 48. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Win chills in the 30s.
Christmas Night...Clear & Cold. Low 30. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Wind chills in the 20s.
Sunday...Sunny & Cold. High 48. North wind 10 mph.
Friday 12/24/10 Daily Planner
Christmas Eve
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 37
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
W.C. : 34
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 7
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 8
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: ESE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ some Rain developing
Temp: 59
Rain: 20%
Wind: SE 8
9p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ a Few Showers
Temp: 56
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
12-24-10
Christmas Eve
Low: 37
High: 63
Rain: 0% Day....80% Night
Wind: E 10
W.C.: 30-45
Saturday
12-25-10
Christmas Day
Low: 44
High: 47
Rain: 80% Before Sunrise....40% A.M.
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 30s
Sunday
12-26-10
Low: 30
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-40
Monday
12-27-10
Low: 27
High: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 5-10
W.C.: 20-40
Tuesday
12-28-10
Low: 25
High: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 10
W.C.: 20-40
Wednesday
12-29-10
Low: 37
High: 58
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
12-30-10
Low: 48
High: 66
Rain: 40%
Wind: S 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Christmas Eve Day...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Christmas Eve Night...Southeast winds around 10 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening...then showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
Christmas Day...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Christmas Night...North winds 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday...North winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Christmas Eve Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:27a.m. 11:16p.m.
High: 2:12a.m. 6:24p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.77'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Low: 45
Normal Low: 42
Record Low: 11-1989
High: 63
Normal High: 62
Record High: 79-1931
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.24"
Normal Month to Date: 3.32"
Year to Date: 32.81"
Normal Year to Date: 55.91"
Record: 2.22"- 1945
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 60
High: 74
Rain: 0.02"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 31
High: 64
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 37
High: 52
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 7:06a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:19p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:36a.m.-5:49p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Full Moon- Wednesday January 19
Merry Christmas & God Bless!
-DM-
Merry Christmas!!!
The forecast discussion is forthcoming. This is my last forecast package until after Christmas, so before we dive into the weather here's my Christmas message...
For Unto Us a Child Was Born...
Christmas is the most wonderful time of the year! It seems like 2010 was a really fast year! We have all dealt with our trials and tribulations over the year, but let us never forget there is always Someone to turn to. No matter what your situation there is one constant that has always been since it all began 2010 years ago! Christmas is a time when we celebrate being with our family and friends. It is a time to decorate our homes and offices with lights and trees, etc, and listen to the great music and watch movies associated with Christmas. The hustle and bustle of the Christmas season comes to an end on Christmas Eve, as all the shopping is done as we scrounge around town looking for the perfect gift for our loved ones. It is a time to pray, and attend church with our families, and reflect and be thankful for all of the blessings given us by God. The presents are nice, and the giving and receiving is nice, but we don't dare forget the real meaning of the season! For you see, 2010 years ago, we received the greatest Gift of all, the best and only Gift we'll ever need!
God loved us so much, the He gave us the gift of a Savior! His son, Jesus Christ...He gave us His one and only Son, so that whosoever believes in Him, will not perish, but will have eternal life! Jesus gave His life for us, to save us from eternal damnation! I can't think of a greater gift than knowing that Someone could love me that much, to die for me and take all of my transgressions away.
As we celebrate another Christmas, let us all remember that it isn't what we celebrate on this day, but Who. The Birth of Christ should be celebrated and lived inside each and everyone of us not only on Christmas, but on every day. I feel that in all the hustle and bustle of the Christmas season, that this, the most Significant reason, for the day is forgotten! This Christmas miracle that God made, is the single most significant story of all, and Christmas is the most significant day of the whole year! What/who would we be without God and without his Son, Jesus Christ? Do you know this Jesus I speak of? It seems that a minority is trying to control the majority these days...it's Happy Holidays instead of Merry Christmas! No, it's Merry Christmas, it's always has been, is now, and always will be! Yes, this is a free country, but no one can tell us believers that we can't say Merry Christmas anymore, or keep God first in our lives and in everything we do! They don't have to believe it, they have that right, but don't tell the Christians of this world that we can't express our faith and belief. To me, Happy Holidays means all the holidays...Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years, Hanukkah, etc. Merry Christmas! Keep Christ in Christmas!
I hope everyone truly does enjoy whatever you get for Christmas this year, and every year, but never forget the real reason for the season, and the fact that 2010 years ago on that first Christmas on a cold winter night in a small town called Bethlehem, you received the greatest Gift you'll ever need. As you gather with your family and friends this Christmas, don't forget to pray, and also remember those less fortunate than yourself. Also, lest not forget the brave men and women of the U.S. military, who fight for our freedoms everyday! Y'all truly are our other real heroes!
In closing, I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! I have so much to be thankful for, and I hope you do as well. May God's never-ending blessings be with all of you this Christmas, and forever. Happy Birthday to you, my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ! I hope 2011 brings everyone all the best, and that God continues to be at the forefront of your life. Thank you all for viewing the blog this year, and helping me getting it off the ground and running! Look for bigger and better things on this blog in 2011! I will have more forecasts posted before the end of the year, after a few days off for Christmas! Merry Christmas and God bless!
There is a video blog for this forecast. Look it just underneath this text. This will be the last video blog until after Christmas as well. Look for the next video blog posted on Monday, December 27. See the complete text form of the blog immediately following the video.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The warm spell from earlier in the week is a distant memory now as it should be as we head into Christmas. Any thought of warm weather is just that over the course of the next several days at least until the middle to latter half of next week. For those wanting cold weather for Christmas, our wish shall be fulfilled. Today was a seasonably cool day in the wake of the weak, dry cold front which pushed through on Wednesday. Clouds slowly decreased through the day, and the afternoon turned out quite nice for late December. Seasonably cold is the word for tonight as skies will be clear with a weak surface high in place. After highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s area wide this afternoon, temperatures will fall off nicely overnight reaching the mid to upper 30s by sunrise on our Christmas Eve. A light NE to E flow will be in place overnight due to the orientation of the surface high. The quiet weather will continue into Friday as this weak surface low quickly pushes Eastward. The day will dawn with Mostly Clear, but clouds will increase as the day wears on as the Southerly flow returns across the area. This will be in advance of a strong storm system that has wreaked havoc out West this week. This system is already currently in transit coming out the Desert SW and the Rockies. An associated trough will continue to sharpen and dig towards the area as well. Its attendant cold front will be approaching as we head into the evening hours on Friday. The low level flow returns with a vengeance, and quickly pumps in moist Gulf air over the area ahead of the front. Clouds will increase initially during the day, and forcing and instability will be on the rise as well by the evening hours. This spells a period of rain and a few thunderstorms across the region. We need the rain. The timing may not be the best for anyone traveling, but this is the cards we've been dealt. While most of the day will be dry, it will also seasonal again with highs climbing into the lower 60s after the chilly start.
The stage appears to be set for the first significant rainfall for the area this month. This whole thing will evolve quickly. The overall pattern will be shifting back to a NW flow from the present zonal flow across the area. Rain will begin to break out and expand in coverage and intensity late Friday evening into Christmas Eve night as the cold front approaches and convergence increases in the pre-frontal environment. The front works its way through the area between 6p.m. and midnight Christmas Eve. Rain will be likely in the overnight hours into Christmas morning. Rain could briefly be heavy as activity is enhanced due to a wave forming along the front in the Gulf (low). This low will help overspread moisture across the area. The surface low, cold front, and attendant upper level low will work in tandem to produce this rainy period. Santa Claus may need his windshield wipers and rain gear as he makes his way down from the Great White North. He may get here ahead of schedule on a strong tailwind. The brief onshore flow will be replaced by a strong offshore flow overnight as the sharp cold front slides into the coastal waters on Christmas morning. Rainfall amounts will generally be an inch or less, with amounts less than 1/2" expected North of I-10. The deepest moisture will be along and South of I-10 closer to the surface low, and in the area of greatest convergence. Mainly showers/rain are expected, but there will be enough instability in place that some thunderstorms may occur. There may be more instability in the post-frontal environment than in the pre-frontal environment such that there may be a greater risk of elevated convection than there will be of surface based convection. Either way, it's going to rain Christmas Eve into the early hours of Christmas Day. This will be a quick moving system, however, such that most of Christmas Day will be dry. CAA becomes re-established overnight as the front slides into the Gulf. Expect temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s across the area. You might want to take the rain gear with you if you are planning on heading out to church Christmas Eve. Though, it is likely that those attending midnight mass will endure a better risk of getting wet than those who go to evening services.
The rain will taper off and end on Christmas morning. It seems likely at this point that it will still be raining as the sun comes up, but we will be near the back edge of the rain by that time. The Gulf low will continue moving further East, and this will enhance the CAA over the area. This means that temperatures will have a hard time rising significantly on Christmas Day. It wouldn't surprise me at all if temperatures continue a slow fall in the wake of the surface low as we get deeper into the cold air. This cold air will be modified of course, but it will also be coming into the area from snow covered ground to our North. This helps keep the cold air well insulated, thus slowing down the modification process. Clouds will likely linger for much of the day on Christmas, but we should escape with dry weather for the majority of the day. Some decrease in clouds will be noted during the afternoon hours. We might begin to see a peak of sun or two by the time Christmas dinner is being served. Dry weather will be in place, so if you want to venture outside to break in your new toys and gifts it looks fine for that. Many of us may want to stay indoors be a cozy fire since it will remain on the cold side. The overcast conditions and CAA will result in a small diurnal range for or Christmas Day with highs likely not breaching the 50 degree mark. I am undercutting guidance as I feel it just doesn't handle this atmospheric set up very well. It will feel even colder due to gusty North winds in place thanks to the departing low and building high. A chance of rain is maintained in the morning hours tapering off from likely around sunrise to nothing by noon. High pressure will become the dominant weather feature for the remainder of Christmas weekend. A prolonged stretch of cold weather is in the offing.
High pressure takes full effect by the end of the day Christmas Day, and skies be clear over the entire area. High pressure will still be to our NW, so it will still be a bit breezy. Temperatures fall to near or just below freezing by Sunday morning. Upper 20s will be experienced in the coldest locations and near 30 to 32 will be realized here along I-10. The coast should avoid freezing temperatures to start the day on Sunday, but it will even be cold down there. Frost will not be an issue because of the wind. The strong offshore winds will create a wind chill. Expect these values to be in the 20s through the night. It will be a beautiful but cold second half of Christmas weekend. The Arctic high pressure will continue to move closer to the area. CAA will continue throughout the day on Sunday, and this process will try to offset the usual daytime heating processes. Expect maximum temperatures to be well below late December norms only reaching the mid to upper 40s across the area. It will remain quite cold despite nothing but sunshine. Winds decouple completely for Sunday night as the high pressure moves very close to the area. The stage will be set for an area wide freeze, with a hard freeze for the majority of the area. Expect temperatures to fall off into the mid 20s to near 30 across the area. Frost seems likely for Monday morning especially since winds will go nearly calm and clear skies will remain in place. The clear, cold, and quiet weather will take us into the final work days of the year. Monday will be full of sunshine but the noticeable nip in the air will reign supreme as well. Once again, high temperatures will remain below normal, but a subtle warming trend will begin at least for the afternoon hours with highs reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s, about 10 degrees or so below normal for late December.
CAA ceases on Monday, but the high pressure will remain in control. Super dry air will be in place, and low dew points and humidities will remain present. Clear skies and a very light offshore flow will be in place once again for Monday night, therefore, another freeze is expected on Tuesday morning. Tuesday morning could ultimately wind up being the coldest morning this go around. All areas should experience a freeze with hard freeze conditions possible even for the Lake Area. Mid 20s seem like a good call for the average low to start the day on Tuesday with lower 20s in the coldest locations. Upper 20s to near 30 are expected at the coast. Another beautiful late December day, perhaps the last cloud free day of 2010, is on tap for Tuesday. The strong area of high pressure will loosen its grip on SW Louisiana, and begin to slide Eastward into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley and the rest of the SE U.S. This will allow for the commencement of the return flow (Southerly winds) across our region. This will enhance the warm up. After the cold start on Tuesday expect temperatures to rebound quickly reaching the low to possibly middle 50s. The Arctic air will slowly begin to erode, however, it may take longer than some of the forecast models suggest as we get into the middle of next week. There is better agreement on when moisture will return to SW Louisiana.
Low level moisture will be the first thing to increase by Tuesday afternoon, and then clouds will follow suit by late in the day. Our next storm system will be developing by that time. Another Pacific storm system will be unraveling to our West, and at the same time additional Jet Stream energy will activate the old frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico. This front will begin to slowly trudge Northward heading into Wednesday. The atmospheric profile will become ideal for an overrunning situation overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. As the warm air lifts Northward it will initially ride up and over the slowly modifying cold air at the surface. This will moisten up the boundary layer and create an isentropic lift event. This could set the stage for a significant rain event in the waning days of the year. Rain chances will return to the forecast as early as Tuesday night and increase further on Wednesday when convergence increases. This rain will be a cold rain at first as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s by sunrise Wednesday. That is cold, but not cold enough for anything but rain even further inland. There will be a large plume of warm air that is lifted up and over this cold Arctic air. so the p-type will remain all liquid for all locations. It will be quite cold and raw with rain reaching the likely category by Wednesday. Some elevated convective activity is possible during the day Wednesday as the warm front lifts Northward. This front will move slowly, but further air mass modification will occur with highs topping out around 60, essentially back to normal. The warm front pulls inland late Wednesday, and much warmer and more humid weather returns as the warm sector envelopes the forecast area. All areas will be entrenched in warmer air by Thursday as the warm front lifts out of the forecast area. Rain chances will drop off a bit as we will between weather systems, but with plenty of deep low level moisture streaming into the area rain chances must be maintained through the end of the forecast period. Mostly Cloudy skies will prevail, and some patchy fog can't be ruled out by Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The temperature scheme will return to above normal with lows generally between 45 and 50 and highs approaching the 70 degree threshold. It is too early to speculate on how much rain will occur with this mid-week system, but it may shape up to be a significant rain event for our area in what will go down as one of the driest years and Decembers on record. We will hone in on this system with more specificity after Christmas. Looking toward New Years, the weather doesn't look all that promising for ringing in the New Year as it stands right now. Our next cold front is due in between New Years Eve and New Years Day morning. Timing issues are abundant at this stage of the game, but there is more than enough consistency at this point to suggest that it might be a rainy, even stormy end to 2010 and a stormy/wet beginning to 2011. This has the look of a severe weather potential, but again let's hone in on that with more specifics and clarity after Christmas. Enjoy Christmas first! Merry Christmas and Happy Birthday Jesus!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 37/63 44/47 30/48 0 0 80 40 0 0
LFT 36/63 45/48 29/48 0 0 80 40 0 0
BPT 39/65 46/50 31/49 0 0 80 30 0 0
AEX 32/62 38/45 26/47 0 0 80 40 0 0
POE 33/63 39/45 26/47 0 0 80 40 0 0
ARA 38/64 47/51 30/49 0 0 80 40 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Seasonably Cold. Low 37. Light NE wind.
Christmas Eve Day...Mostly Sunny early. Increasing Cloudiness through the day becoming Cloudy by late afternoon. High 63. East wind 10 mph.
Christmas Eve Night...Cloudy with rain likely along with a few thunderstorms. Rain becoming widespread by midnight. Windy. Low 44. SE wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 80%.
Christmas Day...Cloudy & Windy with a 40% chance of rain until around mid-morning. Skies clearing over the remainder of the day with skies becoming Sunny in the afternoon. Much colder. High 48. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Win chills in the 30s.
Christmas Night...Clear & Cold. Low 30. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Wind chills in the 20s.
Sunday...Sunny & Cold. High 48. North wind 10 mph.
Friday 12/24/10 Daily Planner
Christmas Eve
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 37
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
W.C. : 34
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 7
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 8
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: ESE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ some Rain developing
Temp: 59
Rain: 20%
Wind: SE 8
9p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ a Few Showers
Temp: 56
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
12-24-10
Christmas Eve
Low: 37
High: 63
Rain: 0% Day....80% Night
Wind: E 10
W.C.: 30-45
Saturday
12-25-10
Christmas Day
Low: 44
High: 47
Rain: 80% Before Sunrise....40% A.M.
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 30s
Sunday
12-26-10
Low: 30
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-40
Monday
12-27-10
Low: 27
High: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 5-10
W.C.: 20-40
Tuesday
12-28-10
Low: 25
High: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 10
W.C.: 20-40
Wednesday
12-29-10
Low: 37
High: 58
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
12-30-10
Low: 48
High: 66
Rain: 40%
Wind: S 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Christmas Eve Day...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Christmas Eve Night...Southeast winds around 10 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening...then showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
Christmas Day...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Christmas Night...North winds 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday...North winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Christmas Eve Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:27a.m. 11:16p.m.
High: 2:12a.m. 6:24p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.77'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Low: 45
Normal Low: 42
Record Low: 11-1989
High: 63
Normal High: 62
Record High: 79-1931
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.24"
Normal Month to Date: 3.32"
Year to Date: 32.81"
Normal Year to Date: 55.91"
Record: 2.22"- 1945
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 60
High: 74
Rain: 0.02"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 31
High: 64
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 37
High: 52
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 7:06a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:19p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:36a.m.-5:49p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Tuesday December 28
New Moon- Tuesday January 4
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Full Moon- Wednesday January 19
Merry Christmas & God Bless!
-DM-
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