SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The much advertised winter storm is winding down perhaps a bit ahead of schedule. The winds remain on the gusty side, and this will continue to be the case tonight. However, winds have already decreased across the area as the strong Gulf low pulls away. Rain was heavy at times this morning, and there was even some thunder. Some power outages and minor damage occurred from Beaumont to Lake Charles due to the strong winds. Winds gusted over 50 mph at times between noon and 3p.m. The rain has ended for most of SW Louisiana, and there has even been some breaks in the clouds as we have become dry slotted on the back side of the low. There have no reports of frozen precipitation in this forecast area, and this possibility seems almost completely unlikely. However, it is a different story to our North along the I-20 corridor. Significant ice and snow accumulations are ongoing as the winter storm continues to affect that region. Many roads are closed, as well as schools and businesses for Monday. Rainfall amounts were less than expected due to the faster moving system. Rainfall amounts averaged an inch or less as opposed to the 1-2" we expected. Colder air will slowly filter in overnight, and the winds will slowly subside.
The few breaks in the clouds will be short lived, and generally overcast conditions are expected as a stratus deck remains in place in the wake of the low. Here comes the tough part! There is plenty of residual low-level moisture in place, and the atmospheric profile suggests that fog will develop overnight as well as the potential for some low level drizzle. The temperature forecast is the tricky part. Lows will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the region, and where exactly the freezing line sets up is critical. The stratus deck will keep us well insulated. The freezing line should remain North of the Hwy. 190 corridor based on the current trends. Should there be fog and/or drizzle present in areas where the temperature is below freezing, then the issue of freezing fog and/or freezing drizzle will be realized. Depending upon how long it is present, there could be some icy spots on roadways for a short time Monday morning. This threat is not significant enough for any advisories to be posted at this time, but it is being monitored. I will include a mention of fog/freezing fog/ drizzle/freezing drizzle in the official forecast. The gusty North winds will prevail as well on the order of 10-20 mph at times, and this will create wind chills in the 20-25 range first thing Monday morning. A much quieter period is in store in the wake of this low with respect to precipitation and overall weather. Clouds will hang tough for much of the day on Monday. Temperatures will not move very much, and I am undercutting guidance not only because of the clouds, but because of the fact the winds will be coming straight off of the snow and ice to our North. Models don't comprehend this idea, so I believe the currently depicted highs near 50 by numerical guidance are too warm. Clouds will more than likely begin to break up late in the day Monday as drier air filters into the boundary layer with high pressure building in.
A colder than normal pattern will exist for much of this work week. An Arctic cold front will surge through the area on Tuesday, but this front will be moisture starved, so no chance of rain is expected. There will be some sunshine on Tuesday, and it should start out nice and cold. Temperatures will be at or just below freezing once again, but fog should not be an issue this time around as winds will be out of the North, and all the residual moisture from today's rains will evaporate into the atmosphere. Highs on Tuesday will remain well below normal, but should eclipse the values of which are expected on Monday. Maximums should be between 45 and 50 across the area. Some cloud cover will be noted as the day wears on in advance of our quick moving Arctic front. Winds will increase in the wake of the front Tuesday night, and temperatures willf all off the table with CAA and clear skies in place. Hard freeze conditions are expected area wide on Wednesday morning. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 20s, and depending on exactly how much of a direct transport we receive, and how much snowpack is left up to our North these values could be a few notches colder. Mid 20s will suffice for now in the Lake Area with readings closer to 20 towards Alexandria. Some sunshine is expected on Wednesday, but an agitated NW flow aloft will cause some high clouds to stream across the horizon from time to time. High temperatures will struggle to make it into the 40s, and some locations towards Alexandria and Fort Polk may not even make it. Lower 40s is a good call as it stands right now. Winds will gradually relax during the day as a strong 1044 mb. high settles towards the NW Gulf Coast.
Another cold morning, maybe the coldest morning of the week, is on tap for Thursday as we will in the grasp of the Arctic air mass. We will miss the full brunt of it, but this is the big time Arctic air mass we were discussing last week. It will be plenty cold with another hard freeze expected area wide. There will be the issue of cloud cover. An embedded short wave in the NW flow aloft will be moving into the area in the Wednesday night-Thursday time frame. The high clouds from Wednesday will be the leading effects of this feature. Moisture levels will be very very low, and super dry air will be in place. No precipitation is expected as this disturbance works its way through the area. If there were to be any precipitation, it would come in the form of snow flurries, but that is unlikely at this juncture. Morning lows will range from the low to mid 20s again, but could ultimately be colder if skies are clear. Given the fact that I expect Mostly Cloudy skies to start the day, the 20s seem logical. Models show this as well. Thursday will just be cold and dry with lots more clouds than sun as the disturbance works through. Highs will struggle to reach the 40s once again as CAA continues. I will forecast mid 40s for now, but if things stay the way they look right now, it could conceivably only reach the lower 40s. The clouds will move out late in the day as the passing short wave moves on by. The cold air mass will take us to the end of the work week.
Clear skies and quiet weather will be in store as the Arctic air mass will be slow to vacate the region. Another hard freeze is anticipated for Friday morning with lows generally running in the mid to upper 20s again. Skies will be clear, but the afternoon temperatures should be warmer as a Southerly flow commences. Maximums should be closer to normal with readings in the mid 50s or so. Skies may start out clear, but the return flow may help cloudiness return during the afternoon. Dry weather will prevail into Friday night, but it will be much warmer as the Southerly flow causes the Arctic air to retreat. Temperatures should remain above freezing everywhere, but Northern locations could be close by sunrise Saturday. Morning lows will be in the mid to upper 30s as clouds continue to increase. At this same time, our next storm system will be approaching. The overall NW flow will continue, so we will look to the Canadian Provinces for this next cold front as well. Rain chances will return to the forecast Saturday afternoon as moisture pools out ahead of the cold front. Some scattered showers will break out with increasing convergence, but the better chances of rain will hold off until Sunday. Temperatures should be very close to normal for Saturday ahead of the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are in the offing for Sunday as this cold front makes its way through the area. It will have Arctic origins. Decent convergence will lead to good rain chances, but it is far too early to surmise if there will be a severe weather threat as the front works through. Temperatures will continue to warm up ahead of the front with lows back into the mid 40s or so, and highs in the mid to possibly upper 60s. The cold front will slide through during the day Sunday, but the exact time of arrival is still in question. Much colder air will filter in behind this next front, and will make for another cold blast for the rest of the Martin Luther King Holiday weekend. Specifics about how cold will come in the following days, but it will certainly bring in another period of below normal temperatures.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 33/47 31/48 25/42 20 10 0 0 0 0
LFT 33/48 31/48 26/43 20 10 0 0 0 0
BPT 34/50 32/48 27/44 20 10 0 0 0 0
AEX 30/45 28/45 22/39 20 10 0 0 0 0
POE 31/45 28/45 23/40 20 10 0 0 0 0
ARA 34/49 32/48 26/44 20 10 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy & Cold with patchy light rain or drizzle. Low 33. North wind 10-15 mph.
Monday...Mostly Cloudy & Cold. Slow Clearing through the day. High 47. NNE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Clear and Cold w/ a Light Freeze. Low 31. Light NE wind.
Tuesday...Mostly Sunny & Continued Cold. High 48. East wind 10 mph becoming NNW at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Clear & Cold w/ a Hard Freeze. Low 25. NNW wind 10-15 mph and gusty. Wind chill values 15-20 by morning.
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny & Cold. High 42. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Monday 1/10/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Rain: 20%
Wind: N 12
W.C.: 27
9a.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 36
Rain: 10%
Wind: NNE 11
W.C.: 30
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 40
Rain: 10%
Wind: NNE 13
W.C.: 33
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly to Partly Cloudy
Temp: 46
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 15
W.C.: 37
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Low: 44
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 7
W.C.: 40
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 40
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 4
W.C.: 38
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
1-10-11
Low: 33
High: 46
Rain: 10%
Wind: NNE 10-15
W.C.: 25-40
Tuesday
1-11-11
Low: 31
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: E/NNW 10-15
W.C.: 20-40
Wednesday
1-12-11
14 Year Anniversary of Ice Storm '97
Low: 25
High: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 15-30
Thursday
1-13-11
High: 44
Rain: 10%
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 15-30
Friday
1-14-11
Low: 25
High: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: E/SSE 10
W.C.: 20-40
Saturday
1-15-11
Low: 37
High: 62
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10
Sunday
1-16-11
Low: 47
High: 64
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Monday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday...North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday Night...North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12:50a.m. 11:59a.m.
High: 6:44a.m. 6:33p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.72'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Low: 41
Normal Low: 41
Record Low: 21-1910
High: 48
Normal High: 60
Record High: 79-1937
Rainfall
Today: 0.09"
Month to Date: 1.94"
Normal Month to Date: 1.61"
Year to Date: 1.94"
Normal Year to Date: 1.61"
Record: 2.54"- 1984
Sensible Weather Observed:
Thunderstorm
Rain
Light Rain
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 21
High: 42
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 54
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 29
High: 57
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Monday: 7:10a.m.
Sunset Monday: 5:31p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:40a.m.-6:01p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Full Moon- Wednesday January 19
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 26
New Moon- Thursday February 3
Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
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