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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The first rain event of 2011 is moving in as I write this. The key factors involved to produce this rainfall were discussed at length last night remain unchanged. An embedded short wave or perturbation in the current zonal flow across the Gulf coast, combined with a developing coastal trough will bring a period of rain overnight into early Wednesday. It remained dry on this Tuesday, and it really wasn't a half bad day after a seasonably cool start. Temperatures were right around 40 this morning. There was more sunshine than expected today, and high temperatures responded accordingly topping out around 70. It was the first official 70 degree day of the new year at Lake Charles and Lafayette. Clouds were in and out all day as moisture slowly increased as transported by a light onshore flow. Tonight moisture is rapidly increasing as this storm system approaches. This system will cross the threshold of the forecast area, and lift out from SW to NE through the night into the morning hours on Wednesday. Periods of rain are to be expected through the overnight, but this should just be general rains. The main dynamics and rich tropical moisture will remain over the coastal waters to the South of a weak warm front. Convergence and forcing are increasing, and rain could be heavy at times along with a few thunderstorms possible. Severe weather is not anticipated due to the lack of the best dynamics. Rainfall totals will generally be an inch or less across the area with higher amounts from the Toledo Bend Region through Central Louisiana. The best time frame for rain to occur in this forecast area will be from around midnight to 6a.m. Wednesday. We are under the influence of a WAA regime, and temperatures will hold steady or drop just a few degrees between now and sunrise. Expect temperatures to generally be in the mid 50s to around 60 at best for Wednesday.
This rain event will be in and out with a very progressive pattern in place. The rains will more than likely shut off around lunch time on Wednesday, give or take an hour or two dependent upon your location. Rains will end from West to East. Along with the morning rain, some fog could be mixed into the equation due to the surge of warmer air as the system moves across. All of this will scour out as the rain ends, and much improved weather will follow as this perturbation moves away. High pressure will replace this brief period of lower pressures. Clouds will linger into the afternoon, but we may see some sunshine before we reach sunset as it stands right now. We will enjoy another mild January day as well. Highs will easily reach the 60s, and may be closer to 70 depending on how quickly we get rid of the rain. It will be mild ahead of a Pacific frontal boundary which will move through during the afternoon in the wake of this rain event. The onshore flow will come to an end, and we will gain an offshore flow by the afternoon hours. The mean flow will remain zonal, and winds will have a Westerly component by afternoon. The day's end won't be half bad. We need this rain, and it will just the kind we need. A good soaker, and not just a constant downpour. We will at least catch up on rainfall for the month of January. We need a lot more to completely alleviate the ongoing drought conditions across the area. The area of high pressure becomes well established in the wake of the cold front Wednesday night with modest CAA in place. Clear skies will be in place, and temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by Thursday morning. Temps right around 40 seem logical here along I-10.
The latter half of the work week will be tranquil. Thursday and Friday will both feature plenty of sunshine along with low humidity. The mornings will be chilly, but afternoon temperatures will be seasonable for early January in SW Louisiana. Temperatures will basically be normal for this period. High pressure with Pacific origins will dominate the Gulf Coast weather through Friday. No chance of rain is expected beginning Wednesday night with the drier air moving in. Another storm system will be garnering energy out West, and a few high clouds may stream overhead out ahead of it on Friday, but these should be of little consequence through this period. Thursday highs will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area, right at normal for the date. Friday morning will be on the chilly side, and there might be some areas of frost. However, a freeze is not expected in most locations. The coldest locations may dip to 31 or 32 briefly, but average lows will be in the mid to upper 30s. A nice warm up will occur Friday with plenty of sunshine once again. Highs should once again at least reach 60, and may top out very close to 65 or so. That's perfection if you ask me! The dry period will carry into the weekend, but changes will be on the way over the weekend. Another clear and cold night is on tap for Friday night with lows dipping into the mid to upper 30s once again heading into Saturday. Looks nice for the Cotton Bowl Game in Dallas Friday night as well. Clear skies and temperatures generally in the 50s and 40s during the game. That's not really that bad by Dallas standards in January.
The weekend starts dry, but things change in a big way as the day wears on Saturday. Clouds will rapidly spill into the area from the West. This next weather system is now in our upper airstream data, so we will garner a much better feel for things over the next couple of days. Models are insistent in another ripple in the continued zonal flow. What is progged to be a cut off surface low will eject Eastward for the remainder of this work week. By Saturday it will crossing Texas, and be in transit to SW Louisiana. The Gulf of Mexico and an active Subtropical Jet Stream will come into play as the system moves closer. The interaction will likely generate Gulf cyclogenesis and a surface warm front over the NW Gulf of Mexico waters. A secondary low may form in Central Texas along the attendant cold front. This all conglomerates and propagates Eastward on Saturday. Moisture will surge across the area as the Gulf opens up for business. Most of the daylight hours on Saturday will be dry, but some shower activity will break out in the evening as convergence and forcing increase. As clouds and moisture increase during the day Saturday, temperatures will remain near seasonal values with highs reaching into the 60s yet again. However, we can shave a few degrees off of the high from Friday because of the aforementioned reasons. You might not even notice the beginning of the rain on Saturday afternoon since it will likely come during the Saints playoff game against Seattle. It looks cloudy and cold in Seattle with a chance for rain during the game, but the Saints shall prevail. Rain becomes likely and widespread overnight Saturday and well into the day on Sunday. This time around there will likely be thunderstorms with greater instability in place. This type of set up will favor a significant rain event with at least a couple of inches of rain expected through Sunday. It remains to be seen if we will have a severe weather threat. This is all dependent upon the eventual track of the surface low. If it tracks over the Gulf, then the severe weather threat will virtually be non-existent, however, if the low tracks inland to the North of I-10 as some forecast models suggest, then we could have a tornado threat late Saturday night through Sunday morning. More specificity will follow in the days ahead, but just understand it is going to rain over the weekend. I would anticipate 1-2" on average with higher amounts up to 4" possible especially closer to the coast. Temperatures will be tricky for Sunday as well as this once again all hinges on the track of the low. For now, I will reflect warm air advection, but if the low track is over the Gulf then it will be on the chilly side. Morning lows Sunday will generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with afternoon highs reaching the mid 60s or so. Rain tapers off Sunday afternoon with conditions greatly improving as we wind down the second weekend of 2011. The system will depart to our East pushing most of the moisture out into the Gulf and into the SE U.S.
Colder air will filter in behind the departing low, and this is reflected in the forecast for Sunday night into Monday. The degree of cold air here is in question as well, but for now it should be at or near seasonal levels with lows generally in the lower 40s while highs Monday reach the mid 60s or thereabout. The weather will be a lot calmer on Monday, but I can't guarantee it will be totally clear with a very active pattern in place. The Jet Stream will keep clouds and periodic disturbances streaming on by. We will transition from a standard zonal flow to a NW flow aloft over the weekend. This will put us on high alert for what's brewing upstream at this time. In the world of meteorology, we are watching and studying the behavior of a big time Arctic air mass. This air mass is currently developing in NW Canada and up towards the North Pole. It is moving poleward from Siberia. It will keep moving towards the United States as the week wears on, and if current projections are correct it should get clearance and an approved passport from Canada to cross into the United States in Montana/North Dakota over the weekend with its sights set on everything from the Rockies Eastward and Southward to the Gulf Coast early next week. You can't ignore the models projection a 1060-1065 mb. high over Western Canada. This developing pattern is known as a McFarland Signature. This pattern creates the aforementioned massive high pressure over NW Canada, and drops in into the Rockies with a polar low (vortex) established over Hudson Bay. This pattern is not very common, but there is clear evidence of this pattern occurring in the past. We have to look back to the 1980s (1983 and 1989 specifically) to see the kind of cold air the McFarland Signature is capable of producing. In December 1983, Lake Charles dropped to 13 degrees on Christmas morning, and that was surpassed on December 22, 1989 when the all-time record low for the month of December was established at 11 degrees. This McFarland Signature more than likely was present during the mother of all cold blasts in February of 1899 when the all-time low at Lake Charles was established as the mercury plummeted to an amazing 3 degrees. All of our forecast models show an Arctic blast next week, but they all show it to varying degrees, and we are at a point in time when each model run looks a bit different. It is still early in the game to predict exactly how cold we will get next week, but it is safe to say we will much below normal. If we get a direct transport of the intense Arctic into the Deep South we could certainly have days where we don't even make it to freezing for highs. Lows could be as cold as the low to mid 10s. It could end up paralleling the blasts from the 80s, and may easily surpass the January 2010 cold wave when much of the area experienced 10s. I will get more specific about this in the days ahead, but just an early heads up that it's going to get cold next week, and will likely be the coldest air of this season and possibly in years. It will likely be cold for several days. It is far too early to mention any prospects of precipitation either. After the relative calm on Monday, the first surge of Arctic should arrive on an already cold day on Tuesday. Morning lows will be in the low to mid 30s. The daytime high will be at or near 40. Don't expect much warming due to the timing of the front Tuesday. Clouds will be present, but very little in the way of rainfall is expected. A slight 20% chance is noted as the front may squeeze out whatever moisture is present. Strong CAA takes over Tuesday afternoon likely with falling temps and very strong Northerly winds. The coldest weather comes just beyond this forecast period. Stay tuned!!!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 56/68 40/60 36/63 70 60 0 0 0 0
LFT 56/69 42/60 37/63 60 70 0 0 0 0
BPT 57/70 41/61 38/64 80 60 0 0 0 0
AEX 52/66 38/58 33/61 80 70 0 0 0 0
POE 52/66 38/58 34/61 80 70 0 0 0 0
ARA 56/69 43/62 37/63 50 70 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Cloudy with rain likely. Rain could be heavy at times, and some embedded thunderstorms are possible. Low 56. Light South wind. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday...Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Rain ending with decreasing cloudiness in the afternoon. High 68. South wind 5-10 mph in the morning, becoming West 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 40. Light NNW wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 60. NNW wind around 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cold. Some Patchy Frost possible. Low 36. Calm wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 63. North wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday 1/5/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Rain
Temp: 56
Rain: 70%
Wind: S 5
9a.m.
Weather: Light Rain
Temp: 59
Rain: 60%
Wind: S 10
Noon
Weather: Cloudy, Some Lingering Rain
Rain: 30%
Wind: W 7
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy...Skies Beginning to Clear
Temp: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: W 8
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: WNW 10
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 52
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
1-5-11
Low: 56
High: 68
Rain: 60%
Wind: S/W 10
Thursday
1-6-11
Low: 40
High: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
Friday
1-7-11
Low: 36
High: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Saturday
1-8-11
Low: 38
High: 59
Rain: 40% Late
Wind: NE 10-15
Sunday
1-9-11
Low: 45
High: 64
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
1-10-11
Low: 42
High: 62
Rain: 10%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Tuesday
1-11-11
Low: 34
High: 42
Rain: 10%
Wind: NNW 15-30
W.C.: 25-35
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Areas of fog. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.
Wednesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 9:02a.m. 10:03p.m.
High: 1:15a.m. 5:24p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.66'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Low: 40
Normal Low: 41
Record Low: 16-1911
High: 70
Normal High: 61
Record High: 85-1913
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: Trace
Normal Month to Date: 0.70"
Year to Date: Trace
Normal Year to Date: 0.70"
Record: 2.27"- 2007
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 30
High: 42
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 44
High: 73
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 26
High: 57
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:10a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:27p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:40a.m.-5:57p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Tonight January 4
First Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Full Moon- Wednesday January 19
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 26
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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