Happy New Year! It is hard to believe we have entered into another year. I hope everyone had a blessed and joyous holiday season. 2010 went by in the blink of an eye it seemed. Who knows what's in store for 2011? I will be taking some time in the coming days to look back on the year that was in weather. Look for that as time allows over the course of the next several days. I still need to compile the list, so give me at least til Wednesday. We have some active weather to discuss as well, and I will get to the business at hand shortly. First, I wanted to take a moment to wish everyone a very safe, happy, and blessed 2011. May God's blessings be plentiful to you and your family in 2011 and beyond. Thank all of you who viewed this blog in 2010, and I hope that you can help me make the blog something bigger and better here in 2011. Leave no doubt, this is the only place you ever need to turn to for the most complete and accurate weather information for SW Louisiana. I look forward to providing you with the most accurate weather information that you expect again in 2011. Weather is what makes me tick, and it is who I am. Thank you for reading this blog. The blog will remain in short form for one more day, and I'll go back to regular format tomorrow as we come out of the holidays. The forecast is below.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The first freeze of 2011 occurred this morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to near freezing across the area. It was a beautiful first Monday of 2011 with plenty of sunshine aside from a few mid and high level clouds streaming in this afternoon. After the cold start, temperatures warmed up significantly into the mid to upper 50s. This was just short of normal for this time of year. Winds were calm this morning with an area of high pressure right over head, but this high has since departed to the East. The advancing high pressure has allowed for the commencement of a return flow of Gulf moisture as is to be expected anytime there is a high to our East. Low level moisture and humidity values are increasing in earnest tonight. All of this will set us up for the first rainfall of 2011. It should be quiet for the overnight hours, and will certainly be much warmer with no threat of freezing temperatures in this forecast area. Clouds will be increasing as a deck of stratocumulus over Texas gradually slides Eastward, and envelops the entire forecast area by morning. The return flow will keep temperatures at or just above normal values for early January. Expect readings to generally be in the low to mid 40s by sunrise Tuesday. Expect overcast conditions as well.
Tuesday will start on the dry side, but this will change as the day progresses. WAA combined with a coastal trough, adjacent surface low, and attendant short wave coming out of Mexico will set the stage for this rain event. This will set up a period of isentropic lift or overrunning. Deep Gulf moisture will continue to infiltrate the region as the mean surface flow will generally be from South to North. A few scattered showers are possible across the area before noon as moisture continues to increase, but the majority of the rainfall will remain out over the coastal waters until the afternoon hours. Rain will spread inland, and gradually increase in areal coverage the closer we get to dusk. Rain will ultimately become widespread by Tuesday night, and continue into Wednesday. The rain should generally be on the light side with all the best dynamics and greatest forcing remaining over the coastal waters in closer proximity to the advancing coastal low. Temperature modification will continue on Tuesday as well. Expect high temperatures to reach the low to mid 60s with WAA continuing across the area. This is essentially normal for early January. The highest rain chances will come in the overnight hours on Tuesday into early Wednesday as all of the previous players move up the coast. Rainfall amounts will average about 1/2" as a general rule, but could be as high as 1" in some places. The clouds, rain, and continued WAA will keep minimums from falling off all that much into Wednesday morning. I only expect upper 40s to lower 50s for our part of the world.
Expect rain to be present by drive time on Tuesday evening, and most definitely for drive time on Wednesday morning. The Gulf wave will be moving on by, and rain will gradually taper off and end during the day on Wednesday. Again, most of the rainfall should be on the light side, but certainly a heavier pocket of rain here or there can't be ruled out. This is not a pattern that favors thunderstorms either, but with elevated instability some elevated or slantwise convection cant' be ruled out. Rain will be in the likely category Wednesday morning, and drop to nothing by the mid-late afternoon hours as the system lifts out. Temperatures will remain close to seasonal, and there won't be much of a diurnal range. A renewed offshore flow will develop in the wake of the aforementioned coastal trough. This will usher in modest cold air from our North, and weak CAA will set up during the day Wednesday. After the mild morning temperatures in the 50s, expect afternoon highs to top out in the low to mid 60s. The bottom line here is that we will be line for some more much needed rainfall. Extreme drought conditions continue across the area, but hopefully we can at least get to normal or even above for the month of January. Remember now, that winter is a wet season here along the NW Gulf Coast. Rain comes to an end Wednesday evening, and skies will be in the process of clearing going into Wednesday night. Somewhat cooler and much drier air will take over as a Pacific high pressure slides down the front range of the Rockies. Expect clear skies and a refreshingly cool morning in place by Thursday with lows ranging from around the mid 30s inland to the mid 40s at the coast with modest CAA ongoing.
Quiet weather is on tap to round out the first work week of the new year. High pressure dominates the weather across the Southland for Thursday and Friday. An offshore flow will remain in place providing tranquil weather across the area. Mornings will be seasonably cold, and afternoons will be rather pleasant. Skies should be cloud free on Thursday, and just a few high clouds are expected on Friday. Expect highs on Thursday to struggle to crack the 60 degree threshold with CAA in place. Friday morning could be a frosty one with temperatures in the 30s area wide, but as it stands right now most of us should avoid freezing temperatures as the air behind the mid week system is not all that cold. Lows should be in the mid 30s on average with a light freeze for the coldest locations. Clear skies and light winds should set the stage for the development of frost in the late night/early morning hours for Friday. The frost disappears shortly after the sun comes out as temperatures begin to warm up. Temperatures should climb back into the low to mid 60s easily. Wholesale changes are in store as we head into the second weekend of the new year. Clouds will increase in full force Friday night as another potent weather system comes at us from the West. This system is entering upper air data tonight, so we will have a better feel for things over the next few days. Friday night should remain dry with just the noticeable increase in clouds. It will remain on the chilly side with a general E to NE flow in place. Lows should reach the mid 30s to around 40 for most. If you are heading to Dallas for the big Cotton Bowl game between LSU and Texas A & M, expect sunny skies during the day, and just a few clouds during the game that evening. It will be a wee bit chilly as well with game time temperatures in the 50s at kickoff falling into the 40s during the game. The overnight low will be just above freezing around 33-34 in the DFW Metroplex for Saturday morning. I will keep you updated throughout the week on that, I know many people are interested.
The weekend doesn't look so good weather wise, but cheer up there is a plethora of football to watch including our Saints on Saturday. Another potent storm system will begin to affect the area by late in the day Saturday. This system will be in the form of a strong cut off upper level low currently over the waters of the Western Pacific. This system will slowly eject Eastward as it is transported by the Jet Stream. As it moves into region on Saturday, it will interact with the open Gulf of Mexico and induce surface cyclogenesis in the coastal waters off the coast of Texas. Clouds will increase in earnest on Saturday. We will likely just have overcast conditions for much of the day on Saturday. Rain will begin to develop and move across the area Saturday afternoon probably during the Saints game the way it looks right now. They'll be in Seattle, and there will also be a chance of rain up that way. It will also be quite chilly with temperatures running between 43 and 48 Saturday afternoon. Back home, there will likely be some hint of a return flow especially if a low develops in the coastal waters. This will bring in copious amounts of Gulf moisture, and as we head into Saturday night rain will overspread the entire area with heavier rains near the coast closest to the best lift and dynamics. No severe weather is expected at the onset of this event Saturday. Saturday highs should top out in the mid 50s, and with the clouds, wind, and rain it will definitely feel quite raw. Rain increases in areal coverage and intensity overnight into Sunday.
Sunday by far looks like the worst day of these next 7. A warm front will initiate from the Gulf system, but at this point in time it looks like it will remain offshore. This will keep us in the cool sector, but heavy rain and thunderstorms are still at a high likelihood for Sunday. The propagating disturbance and trough will try to become negatively tilted as it moves across Louisiana. This is often a sign of a very potent system, and can lead to some very adverse weather conditions. Models have wavered on the idea of severe weather with a tornado threat evolving for Sunday, but given that we may stay in the cold sector of this system, then severe weather would be very isolated without sufficient dynamics in place. Certainly, the threat of severe weather is still in the mix depending on how all of this shakes out. I will continue to monitor, but regardless of a severe weather threat on Sunday rain is going to be likely with all of the moisture being lifted up and over the cool, stable surface air. The elusive warm front will likely tell all as to what kind of weather occurs on Sunday. It will be quite windy as well with this advancing storm system over the area. Several inches of rain will be possible this weekend beginning Saturday afternoon and ending sometime Sunday afternoon. Exact timing is still in question as well. Temperatures will stay on the cool side, given the current trajectory of things. Expect morning lows to be in the low to mid 40s for Sunday while afternoon highs reach the mid 50s or so. It looks like a great day to take in a movie or just stay home and watch some more football after church. Rain chances will be in the likely category, and could ultimately max out. Further re-assessment is likely, so check back tomorrow. This system gets out of our hair just in time to start a new work week as fate would have it. However, that doesn't look like the end of the excitement in the weather world. Rain comes to an end Sunday night as the vigorous storm pushes away from the NW Gulf Coast. Skies will gradually clear heading into Monday, but we remain cool as the system helps generate CAA on its backside. A chance of rain is maintained for Monday with lingering moisture in the wake of the potent Pacific storm on Sunday and an active Jet Stream across the area. Colder air filtering in will produce lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s while highs fail to eclipse the 60 degree mark. Beyond Monday, the signs are there for a major outbreak to flood much of the nation next week sometime in the 11-15 January time frame. Just how much cold air reaches us depends on the final trajectory of the cold air mass that will likely build up over Western Canada late this week and weekend. There are all kinds of model solutions with regards to this, and trying to single out a definitive pattern at this point beyond 7 days is shear speculation. If nothing else, the coldest air of the season is on tap for the middle and latter portions of next week. Stay tuned!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast
LCH 40/63 51/65 44/61 0 30 80 60 0 0
LFT 41/62 50/64 46/60 0 30 80 70 0 0
BPT 45/65 53/67 45/62 0 40 80 50 0 0
AEX 37/58 46/60 38/58 0 20 60 60 0 0
POE 38/58 47/61 39/58 0 20 60 60 0 0
ARA 42/64 52/65 47/61 0 30 80 80 0 0
Tonight...Increasing Cloudiness and Not as Cold. Low 40. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain in the afternoon. High 63. East wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Cloudy with rain likely. Low 51. East wind 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Wednesday...Cloudy with rain likely, tapering off in the afternoon. High 65. North wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Becoming Clear and Colder. Low 44. NW wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Sunny. High 61. NNW wind 10 mph.
Tuesday 1/4/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 3
9a.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 52
Rain: 20%
Wind: E 7
Noon
Weather: Cloudy w/ a Few Pockets of Rain
Temp: 59
Rain: 20%
Wind: E 12
3p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ Scattered Rain
Temp: 63
Rain: 30%
Wind: E 14
6p.m.
Weather: Rain Likely
Temp: 58
Rain: 60%
9p.m.
Weather: Rain
Temp: 56
Rain: 70%
Wind: E 10
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
1-4-11
Low: 40
High: 63
Rain: 30% Day...80% Night
Wind: E 10-15
Wednesday
1-5-11
Low: 51
High: 65
Rain: 60%
Wind: E 10-15
Thursday
1-6-11
Low: 44
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
Friday
1-7-11
Low: 36
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Saturday
1-8-11
Low: 38
High: 57
Rain: 30% Day...70% Night
Wind: ENE 10-15
Sunday
1-9-11
Low: 43
High: 56
Rain: 80%
Wind: E 15-20
Monday
1-10-11
Low: 40
High: 58
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers.
Tuesday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Showers likely.
Wednesday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers.
Wednesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Good Night & God Bless!
-DM-
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