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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What a pretty Wednesday it was! The forecast was right on track with temperatures very close to the target numbers I laid out in the previous forecast. High pressure built in from the Great Plains on this Wednesday in the wake of the early week storm. It was a cold morning with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s, but that's not so bad considering we've been as cold as the low 20s earlier this month. Under full sunshine and low humidity air, afternoon highs approached late January norms reaching the upper end of the 50s...it sure felt good out there! Something about some nice Vitamin D is mighty exhilarating. It will be on the cold side tonight, in fact this will be the coldest night of the week with lows approaching the freezing mark. The atmospheric conditions will be prime for radiational cooling with light winds and clear skies in place. Some frost is possible by sunrise as a condensation layer will likely form given the absence of atmospheric mixing. The beautiful late January weather will continue on Thursday after the cold start. We will warm up nicely under another day of beautiful clear skies and low humidity as high pressure remains in control along the realm of the Gulf Coast. Highs should top out at or just above the 60 degree mark, basically seasonal. This forecast will sustain its current tranquility through Friday with more clear, low humidity air in place as the controlling high only slowly loosens its stronghold on SW Louisiana. It will be another cold night Thursday night with lows down into the mid 30s for most, but air mass modification will begin, and will keep most of us from getting to freezing. Frost could be an issue again for Friday morning. Further warming occurs Friday with high temperatures ultimately reaching the mid 60s, now trending slightly above average.
Changes take shape over the weekend, but most of the weekend will still be nice. This especially holds true for Saturday. Moderating will continue with morning lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. We will begin the process of moisture return during the day Saturday as the current high slides East of the Mississippi Valley. Humidity will slowly begin to increase, but not be all that noticeable on Saturday. Some high clouds may stream across from time to time especially after noon well in advance of our next weather maker, but it should still be a splendid day with more sun than clouds. Guess what??? Afternoon temps may approach the 70 degree mark. Sounds like a free preview of Spring. It looks great for anything you may have planned outdoors. Benign weather continues into Sunday with just an increase in clouds noted. Boundary layer and surface layer moisture will continue to increase being transported by the Gulf breeze. Fog may become an issue for Sunday morning with a deep layer Southerly flow in place, but re-assessment of this will come tomorrow. Morning temperatures on Sunday will likely be just above seasonal norms into the mid 40s, while afternoon highs continue on the mild side right in the mid 60s. Rain chances will need to be introduced for later in the day Sunday, holding off til after about 3p.m. or so the way it stands right now. Our next weather maker, in the form of a cut off upper low over Baja California will be evacuating Eastward through the upper air stream, and begin making its presence known by late Sunday. Rain chances will increase as this system results in increased forcing and lifting. There are still model discrepancies with respect to intensity of this system, mainly, how much rain will fall.
It seems to me that the atmospheric profile will support widespread rainfall in the Sunday night-Monday time frame. Rainfall totals could well exceed an inch or so, but this is subject to further fine tuning as we get closer to the weekend and have a better understanding how this system will evolve. Just understand that we will need our rain gear by late in the weekend. The cut off low will energize the Jet Stream further, and frontogenesis will occur over Texas. A weak surface reflection may also result. All of this conglomerates to produce this aforementioned rain event. No severe weather is expected with a winter time atmospheric profile in place, but certainly some thunderstorms are possible with instability in place. The best opportunity for rain looks to be in the overnight hours Sunday, but the chances will carry over into a good portion of Monday until frontal passage occurs. Temperatures in the pre-frontal environment will remain on the mild side with lows for Monday morning in the mid 40s. Temperatures ahead of the front Monday afternoon should easily reach the 60s again, and depending on how much (or little) rainfall there is could get close to 70 again. A strong onshore will be in place as well. The rain will come to an end in the afternoon, but the clouds will remain in place. This front will usher in CAA once again, but it will also induce a more pronounced overall pattern shift across the Southern U.S. We will transition from a typical zonal flow back to a NW flow in the wake of said front Monday afternoon.
The renewed NW flow aloft will be about the only sure thing involved in the remainder of this forecast period. You have read all week that there is a high deal of uncertainty concerning the forecast next week. This is still the case, perhaps even more so today. Models are all over the place beginning Tuesday. So with that being said, here is what I see. The established NW flow will allow for Arctic air to spread across the Eastern 2/3 of the U.S. once again including the Gulf Coast. Now, how cold is still a crapshoot especially when trying to decipher all the different schemes laid out by models. There will still be enough moisture in place in the wake of Sunday night/Monday's rain that additional chances for rain will need to be heralded in the Monday night/Tuesday morning time frame as the Arctic front barrels Southward. No thunderstorms are expected, but lifting will support some shower activity and post-frontal drizzle/light rain on Tuesday morning. Winds will increase in earnest with strong CAA expected by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will more than likely be confused on Tuesday. We may start out in the mid 40s, not so bad. However, as the front pulls into the coastal waters and the colder air deepens over land temperatures will fall during the day perhaps reaching the upper 30s in the afternoon. Clouds and a chance for post-frontal rains will remain in place. I note here that one model clears us out in a hurry and keeps cold air spilling Southward while the other shows a vigorous coastal storm with an extended period of overrunning, cold rain. I feel it is best to blend the guidance together for the time being until a more consistent look is shown. For the remainder of the forecast period on Wednesday, it should be clearly evident that it will still be winter for everyone along the Gulf Coast, no matter what Mr. Groundhog might say. There has been enough consistency for the past several days about some sort of system developing with shallow cold air in place along the Gulf Coast. While I am not ready to predict anything robust, I will maintain the idea I clinged to yesterday hinting at a prolonged period of overrunning as cold air will be trapped at the surface. Warm air will ride up and over the Arctic air mass in place, and energy from the Jet may initiate a Gulf low. That remains to be seen. Nevertheless, my forecast reflects a colder and rainy pattern at the end of this forecast. I am holding lows in the mid-upper 30s and highs only in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday. I will go extremely high on rain chances just yet, but if I had to lean one way or the other at this point I would expect higher rain chances and the colder solution. This is based on the seasonal performance of particular models. It should be noted, that if we do clear out behind the Arctic front Tuesday then we will endure a hard freeze Wednesday, and highs will only be in the 40s even with the sun out thanks to continued strong CAA. This forecast is tricky in its own right, but if enough cold air is in place there could be a significant winter storm shaping up just to our North. All we can do here in the weather office is watch and wait. Hopefully more model clarity will be in place by the end of the week, and I can narrow things down with more specificity. After a visit from the Arctic next week, a moderating trend will take over beyond this forecast period with the potential for warmer weather after several cold days in a row in early February.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 32/60 36/64 40/66 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 32/59 35/63 39/65 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 33/61 38/65 42/67 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 29/58 32/62 36/66 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 29/58 32/62 36/66 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 34/61 36/64 41/66 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear & Cold. Patchy Frost Possible after Midnight. Low 32. A light freeze from I-10 Northward. Light North wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 60. NW wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear & Not as Cold. Low 36. Light West wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 64. West wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear & Warmer. Low 40. Light SW wind.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny. High 66. SW wind 10 mph.
Thursday 1/27/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 32
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 41
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 3
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 5
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 8
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Low: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 3
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 46
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
1-27-11
Low: 32
High: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
1-28-11
Low: 36
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
Saturday
1-29-11
Low: 40
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 5-10
Sunday
1-30-11
Low: 45
High: 64
Rain: 30% PM...80% Night
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
1-31-11
Low: 46
High: 61
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
Tuesday
2-1-11
Low: 40
High: 45
Rain: 40%
Wind: NNW 20-25
W.C.: 30s
Wednesday
2-2-11
Groundhog Day
Low: 36
High: 42
Rain: 40%
Wind: NNE 15-20
W.C.: 25-35
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...Northwest winds around 5 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday Night...West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 3:10a.m. 4:42p.m.
High: 11:52a.m. 7:57p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.27'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Low: 33
Normal Low: 42
Record Low: 18-1940
High: 59
Normal High: 61
Record High: 83-1912
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.73"
Normal Month to Date: 4.72"
Year to Date: 3.73"
Normal Year to Date: 4.72"
Record: 1.70"- 1974
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 38
High: 68
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 40
High: 55
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 48
High: 67
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Thursday: 7:06a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 5:45p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:36a.m.-6:15p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Tonight January 26
New Moon- Thursday February 3
First Quarter- Friday February 11
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
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