Be sure to see the previous post for a look back at the big Ice Storm we experienced in 1997. Today marks 14 years since this freak winter storm occurred. See the regular blog entry right here.
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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I don't think anyone will complain about the beautiful sunshine we saw today. However, I know many people are not liking this cold weather. We are firmly entrenched in a bona fide Arctic air mass. A hard freeze was realized for everyone away from the coast this morning, and a freeze was experienced all the way to the coast. Temperatures warmed up into the upper 30s to mid 40s today, but that's still well below the average for the second week of January. Thank goodness, we had nothing but wall to wall sunshine to make it feel a little better. The increase in high clouds is a bit delayed, but that looks to occur overnight. There is bad news for everyone who is sick of this cold weather. Tonight will more than likely be the coldest night of the season so far. Radiational cooling will take effect tonight with the massive Arctic high in place. There is one inhibiting factor that may keep us from reaching full cool potential. An embedded short wave in the mean flow is emanating Eastward, and will result in a stream of cirrus clouds moving overhead during the overnight hours. These clouds should remain thin, and will likely not hamper the radiative cooling processes all that much, but it may keep us a degree or two warmer than we would otherwise be with crystal clear skies. It will certainly not going to prevent the entire area from enduring hard freeze conditions. This time even the coastline will get in on the act. Temperatures will range from around 20 near Alexandria and Fort Polk to 23 or so here at Lake Charles over to Lafayette. Even Cameron will come in with readings around 27 or so. Be sure to keep the 3 P's protected. The wind will not be as much of a factor tonight with the high pressure in closer proximity. Expect a light Northerly wind to maintain itself into Thursday morning. The cirrus shield will be more prominent North of I-10 the way it looks at this time. Wind chill values will be quite bitter once again on Thursday morning with values between 15 and 20 degrees...brrr! Sounds like a 3 log night to me! (not to be confused with a popular rock band in the 60s/70s).
The very cold air is not going anywhere on Thursday. The hard freeze conditions will end by mid-morning, but we won't warm up all that much. It will more than likely be a few degrees cooler than that of today because of the aforementioned cirrus shield inhibiting maximum heating from a cold January sun. The high clouds will gradually move out during the day as the short wave exits into SE Louisiana. High temperatures under Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny skies will range from the low to mid 40s. This is several degrees below the mid January benchmark. The atmosphere will remain very dry with dew points in the upper single digits to mid 10s once again across the area. That's almost as low as you'll ever see them here. The rate of static electricity will be quite high with the super dry air in place. We should end the day with skies becoming clear once again, and the cold air remaining in check. Winds will be on the light side, but CAA should finally decay during the day. The orientation of the large Arctic high will shift winds from Northerly to NE and eventually East by tomorrow evening. This will allow for a very subtle warm up to occur, and the overnight lows heading into Friday will by no means by warm. Expect hard freeze conditions to be realized yet again with readings generally just a few notches warmer than that of tonight. Clear skies and light winds will favor another night of good radiational cooling potential. The cold and dry weather continues into Friday with a very frosty morning on tap with the hard freeze across the area. There should be plenty of sunshine present on Friday, but the high will push further Eastward allowing a return flow of Gulf air to commence by the afternoon hours. It will be very subtle at first, and it will take us a while to notice the increase in humidity as this previous front sucked all the moisture out of the air, and pushed it towards the Mexican Riviera. The warming trend itself will be noticeable on Friday as highs climb back into the 50s, mid 50s to be exact. That's still below the normal for mid January, but that's certainly much more bearable. Some increase in cloud cover may be noted by Friday afternoon as the return flow takes over, but all in all Friday should be pretty.
Low-level moisture will be on the increase by Friday night as Southerly winds dominate the region with the Arctic air mass retreating. Skies will generally be Clear to Partly Cloudy with some low clouds working their way up the coast from Texas as the low-level moisture increases. High cloudiness will also increase with the approach of additional short waves in the mean flow aloft. It will still be cold on Friday night into Saturday as the Arctic air mass only slowly loosens its grip across the NW Gulf of Mexico. Certainly, temperatures will be tempered downward the further East and North you go given the return flow. Most locations will avoid freezing temperatures, but a light freeze is expected for Central Louisiana and in Acadiana. The weekend will start off on a quiet note with a warmer but still cold morning for Saturday. Clouds will increase through the day on Saturday as additional downstream short waves rotate Eastward. These will be ejecting Eastward out ahead of our next cold front. Rain chances should remain out of the forecast, as the main thrust of these disturbances pass us by to the North. An isolated shower or two is possible Saturday afternoon as some deeper moisture moves in from the Gulf, but this is not reflected in the official forecast. Certainly, clouds will increase. Temperatures will follow suit. We should creep back into the 60s for the first time since last Saturday. That'll feel nice. Lower 60s is normal for this time of year. Rain chances will return for Sunday as a continuing series of short waves moves into Louisiana. The approaching cold front will slowly move this way, and that will push all of the pre-frontal disturbances towards SW Louisiana. Deeper moisture will pool over the area from the Gulf, and rain chances will return perhaps into the likely category. That prospect remains to be seen. The temperature modification process ramps up as well. Morning lows will be close to January normals in the low to mid 40s while afternoon highs reach the low to mid 60s. 60s sure look good after this cold stretch. Keep this in mind if you have weekend plans, Saturday will be the better day for this 3rd weekend of January.
The holiday on Monday doesn't look all that terrific. If you are lucky enough to be off, you may be enjoying the day on the inside. Rain chances will remain in place for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day on Monday. This is when the next expected cold front will slide through the area. The front will create the necessary lifting required to produce rainfall, but a lack of instability and dynamics will preclude any thunderstorm development. This should not a widespread rain event. The better chance of widespread rain will come on Sunday. The pre-frontal environment on Monday will continue to be warmer with morning lows running close to 50, while afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s. Showers will be expected off and on through the day Monday until frontal passage late in the afternoon. WAA will be replaced Monday evening and Monday nighy by CAA. That being said, this next front is of Pacific origin, and there will not be a tremendous amount of cold air to build in behind it. It will certainly turn cooler for Tuesday as a renewed area of high pressure builds in. This latest front will set us up for some beautiful weather at the end of the forecast period. Some clouds will linger for Monday night into Tuesday, but rapid clearing will ensue with the high pressure building in during the day Tuesday. Temperatures will tease normal for both highs and lows, give our take a few degrees. A fast upper flow continues next week, and there appears to be another Arctic blast poised to arrive just beyond the scope of this forecast period for the latter stages of next week. One could only speculate just how cold that air mass might be at this point.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 23/45 25/54 34/60 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 22/45 24/53 32/60 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 24/46 27/55 36/62 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 19/41 21/47 28/56 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 20/42 22/48 30/57 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 23/45 25/53 33/60 0 0 0 0 0 0
*Hard Freeze Warning in effect until 9a.m. Thursday.*
Tonight...Clear early, with Increasing High Clouds after midnight. Very Cold. Low 23. North wind 5-10 mph. Wind chill readings 10-20 by sunrise Thursday.
Thursday...Partly Considerable High Cloudiness in the morning, becoming Sunny in the afternoon. Continued Cold. High 45. North wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear & Very Cold w/ Another Hard Freeze. Low 25. Light NE wind.
Friday...Sunny & Warmer. High 54. East wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear & Not as Cold. Low 34. Light ESE wind.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Warmer. High 60. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday 1/13/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear w/ Some High Clouds
Temp: 23
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 14
9a.m.
Weather: High Clouds
Temp: 30
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
W.C.: 24
Noon
Weather: High Clouds Thinning Out
Temp: 37
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
W.C.: 32
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny & Cold
Temp: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 38
6p.m.
Weather: Clear & Cold
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
W.C.: 37
9p.m.
Weather: Clear & Cold
Temp: 32
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
W.C.: 30
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
1-13-11
Low: 23
High: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 10-35
Friday
1-14-11
Low: 25
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
W.C.: 20-40
Saturday
1-15-11
Low: 34
High: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Sunday
1-16-11
Low: 45
High: 64
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
1-17-11
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Low: 51
High: 68
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Tuesday
1-18-11
Low: 47
High: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
1-19-11
Low: 40
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Friday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 3:52a.m. 5:47p.m.
High: 12:18p.m. 7:57p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.76'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Low: 27
Normal Low: 41
Record Low: 13-1918
High: 49
Normal High: 60
Record High: 85-1911
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.94"
Normal Month to Date: 2.18"
Year to Date: 1.94"
Normal Year to Date: 2.18"
Record: 2.00"- 1943
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 32
High: 63
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 43
High: 73
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 43
High: 47
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 7:10a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 5:33p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:40a.m.-6:03p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tonight January 12
Full Moon- Wednesday January 19
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 26
New Moon- Thursday February 3
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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