The forecast package is forthcoming, but first I have some personal news. I know that when I set up this blog, I promised I would never use it for personal, non-weather related information. However, this news is so good that I have to share it, especially for all of you who read this blog and may not have Facebook.
I am getting married!!! I proposed to my wonderful girlfriend, Lucy, of 13 months over the weekend, and without hesitation she said yes emphatically. I am so excited, as is my beautiful fiancee. I am so lucky and blessed to have a wonderful girl in my life. I've known for a while now, that God meant for Lucy to be my wife. The timing couldn't have been more perfect as it has been 13 months almost to the day since we first met, and it will be 13 months before we get married. We are already beginning to plan everything, and there is so much to do during this coming year.
I love Lucy more than anything in the world, and no one has ever made me feel as special as she has. She is the most special person I know, and I am looking forward to a lifetime with her. I am looking forward to becoming a great husband and father. I am thankful she said yes, most of all, but I am also thankful that she put up with my nerdiness and the constant ramblings about all things weather. Thanks to everyone who has sent us well wishes and congratulatory messages since the news broke on Friday. Lucy, I love you more than anything, my angel. I thank God that He brought us together, and can't wait to spend the rest of my life with you, baby. Just like our song says, you take me to Heaven just by being you...
Now onto the usual business at hand...
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...After a dreary third weekend of January, the low cloud deck (stratus) remained firmly entrenched across the area on this MLK Day. The all day rain event of Sunday is a distant memory now, and many locations picked up around an inch of much needed rainfall. We are in between weather systems as I write this Monday evening. Today was rather tranquil, with just the overcast in place, and warmer temperatures. Some patchy light rain and drizzle was common this morning as the residual moisture on the backside of the weekend short wave remained in place. A light onshore flow prevailed as we await a weak cold front slated to arrive on Tuesday. The onshore flow allowed for a continuation of the warming trend which has been a slow and gradual process since Friday. The overall temperature range hasn't changed much over the last couple of days especially with all the rain and cloud cover acting to keep the area well insulated. Low temperatures were in the upper 40s to lower 50s, which is several degrees above normal for mid January, however, afternoon highs were essentially spot on with normal reaching around 60 or so in most locales. It was a bit warmer in Acadiana which happened to see a few peaks of sunshine, but for the most part we were all overcast throughout the day. Quiet weather is in store tonight into Tuesday with a slow reduction of the low cloud cover. Moisture remains trapped in the boundary layer just above the surface, but some additional dry air in advance of a weak cool front should help to scour out the low clouds overnight. The clearing line is working its way up the Texas coast.
That being said, don't expect to see much in the way of sunshine to start the day on Tuesday. The clearing will quickly be replaced by fog, some of it dense. There is plenty of residual moisture in place down here at the surface from the weekend rains, and with the atmospheric column close to saturation, it won't take much for fog formation to occur. The fog will also result in a resurgence of a low-level stratus deck across the area. Temperatures will typically be at or above normal for mid January with readings in the mid 40s on average by sunrise. The fog will likely reduce visibility down to less than 1/4 mile in some areas. If the fog becomes dense over much of the area, then a dense fog advisory may need to be issued. Regardless, you will want to give yourself a few extra minutes for your morning commute Tuesday. Rain chances aren't completely eliminated for Tuesday. The first of two fronts on this week's weather maps will affect the region on Tuesday. This front will roll through the forecast area between late morning and mid afternoon depending upon your location in the forecast area. The fog will scour out as the sun comes up, and should vanish by mid-morning. Skies will generally be Partly to Mostly Cloudy after that. A few showers are possible at any given location across the forecast area as this weak front works to scour out the remaining low-level moisture. A widespread rain event is not anticipated, and the higher chances for rain will be over Acadiana it appears right now. An offshore flow will return as this front ventures into the coastal waters during the afternoon. A drier and somewhat cooler air mass will infiltrate the region in its wake. Tuesday maximums will be at or just above the norm in the low to mid 60s. Models could be a tad warm, but if we get more sunshine than expected it could very well be closer to the upper 60s in some parts. Only a slight chance of rain is noted ahead of the anticipated frontal boundary.
The period of Tuesday night through Wednesday may be the nicest stretch during this work week. High pressure will quickly move in behind the weak frontal boundary on Tuesday. Skies will be clear with plenty of stars expected Tuesday night, and no threat of fog. A light offshore flow will result in seasonably cool temperatures in the low to mid 40s across this forecast area. Lots of sunshine is on tap for Wednesday as the Pacific high pressure dominates the weather. We will make a quick turnaround, however, as this high shifts Eastward quickly during the day. Sunny skies and light surface winds under the area of high pressure will make for an outstanding mid winter day with highs climbing into the mid 50s to around 60. Temperatures may hold in the mid 50s closer to the coast up towards I-10 depending on how quickly the return flow commences. The marine influence almost always has an impact on our temperatures, and this is reflected more so in the winter months. Fog may become an issue again for Wednesday night as the return flow strengthens with the very progressive pattern in place. Cloudiness in the low and mid levels will begin to increase as moisture returns to the boundary layer. Low temperatures will be slightly warmer than that of Tuesday night with most locations averaging the mid 40s, but closer to the coast it'll be right around 50 or so. Rain chances will remain absent from the forecast for this period, but that will change again on Thursday.
The second and stronger front on the horizon this week is tapped for Thursday. Moisture will increase throughout the day Thursday. We will likely start off with some fog and/or low clouds first thing with all of that fading away by mid-morning. Some peaks of sunshine are possible in the mid to late morning hours before the lower and thicker cloud cover completely shields us from the sun after lunch. Moisture will continue to increase in earnest ahead of the strong frontal boundary. Rain chances will return and ramp up significantly be the late afternoon and evening hours as the front draws near. A mild day is expected with highs reaching the middle to possibly upper 60s. Model data continues to suggest this may turn out to be a widespread rain event as all indications are an atmosphere containing a very high moisture content will be in place. Lifting and instability will be in place as well, but the best dynamics will bypass this region. The high moisture content, lifting, and instability will all work in tandem to produce our next chance of showers and thunderstorms in the pre-frontal environment Thursday evening and Thursday night. Ultimately, rain chances should wind up in the likely category, but no severe weather is expected at this point. Rainfall totals will average an inch or less There are still timing issues at this stage of the game, and models also diverge on exactly how strong this front will be. It appears as though the front will have some Arctic teleconnections, but again it is a bit early to know for sure how much cold air will be directly transported towards the NW Gulf of Mexico. A definitive cool down is expected Thursday night as the front enters into the coastal waters. Rain will continue overnight Thursday into Friday as CAA intensifies. There will more than likely be some post-frontal rains as well as we endure a period of overrunning with moisture lingering in the atmospheric boundary layer. Temperatures will fall off significantly into the mid 30s by sunrise Friday with strong CAA in place.
Winter returns in full force on Friday after these few mild days. Rain will come to an end Friday morning, and there is a remote possibility of some sleet mixing in with the rain as it winds down Friday morning mainly North of I-10 with the colder air continuing to filter in. This is not reflected in the current forecast at this time, but is certainly being monitored for possible insertion in future forecasts. Rain comes to an end in the morning hours Friday, but the clouds will linger. It will be a cold day on Friday in the wake of this latest Arctic front. Temperatures will likely struggle to make it to 45 degrees, and it could be colder than that depending upon how the Arctic air is juxtaposed in relation to the forecast area. The idea that the weather will be sharply colder should be realized no matter what given the current pattern, and the pattern that has been well established this winter. Only a slow clearing is expected as the day wears on Friday with a 1040 mb. high sliding down the front range of the Rockies. A strong offshore flow will continue keeping the colder air moving over the region. A new round of freezing temperatures is on tap for Friday night into Saturday with the potential for another hard freeze by sunrise Saturday across much of the area. Average temperatures will be running well below normal with readings in the mid to upper 20s for most. All but the immediate coast should experience a freeze as it stands right now. Clear skies and a continued offshore flow will aid in bringing the colder temperatures to the forecast area Saturday.
This weekend is shaping up to be nice, but on the cold side. High pressure will be anchored along the Gulf Coast through Sunday, and this will provide us with wall to wall sunshine and below normal temperatures. The morning freeze on Saturday will end by mid-morning, and only a modest warm up is expected. Daytime heating will try to offset CAA Saturday afternoon. High temperatures will remain below normal with many locations failing to reach the 50 degree threshold. CAA ceases Saturday night into Sunday as the high settles over the area. The Arctic air mass will begin to modify. I should note here that this air mass doesn't look quite as cold as the one we endured last week. Another morning freeze is expected for Sunday with clear skies and nearly calm winds over the area. Frost will be likely for Sunday given the lack of wind and no atmospheric mixing. Sunday should be full of sunshine as well, and the usual warming trend will begin with highs reaching back into the 50s, however, that'll still be below normal as we slowly come out of the doldrums of winter and start to see a one-two degree rise in our minimum and maximum temperatures now. The progressive pattern will remain locked in place for the NW Gulf Coast into next week. Another quick turnaround is expected for Monday as we await another cold front. Onshore flow develops during the day Sunday with the 1040 mb. high sliding into the SE U.S. Clouds return Monday with a chance for showers back in the forecast under a WAA pattern in the afternoon. Temperatures will be close to normal for Monday with a big warm up noted between the minimums for Saturday night and Sunday night. The next front will arrive at the very tail end of this forecast period Monday night into Tuesday. It is too soon to speculate on how much rain that front will bring, and how much cold air it will bring although the long range trends suggest that this won't be an Arctic front that blows in just beyond the scope of the 7 day forecast. Let's take the ole wait and see approach.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 45/63 41/58 47/67 10 20 0 0 0 60
LFT 46/63 40/57 46/67 10 30 0 0 0 60
BPT 47/64 42/59 50/68 10 20 0 0 0 60
AEX 42/58 37/55 42/64 10 20 0 0 0 60
POE 42/58 38/56 43/65 10 20 0 0 0 60
ARA 48/63 43/60 47/66 10 20 0 0 0 60
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Fog developing after midnight. Low 45. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Areas of Fog early, becoming Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High 63. SSW wind 10-15 mph, becoming NNW at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Cooler. Low 41. Light North wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 58. East wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear early, becoming Partly Cloudy overnight. Patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 47. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Patchy Fog early otherwise, Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms developing & becoming likely in the afternoon. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday 1/18/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Fog
Temp: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 52
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 7
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 58
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: NNW 12
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 8
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
1-18-11
Low: 45
High: 63
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-15
Wednesday
1-19-11
Low: 41
High: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Thursday
1-20-11
Low: 47
High: 67
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
1-21-11
Low: 37
High: 45
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 25-35
Saturday
1-22-11
Low: 27
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-35
Sunday
1-23-11
Low: 30
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10
W.C.: 30-40
Monday
1-24-11
Low: 40
High: 58
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Areas of fog.
Tuesday...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Areas of fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...Northeast winds around 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Have a great Tuesday & God bless!
-DM-
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