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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The early week dreariness is over with. Conditions are drastically improving across the forecast area tonight as high pressure builds in behind our latest cold front, and associated low pressure system. Rainfall amounts were right on target with the numbers laid out in advance of the system, generally around an inch or so. Some locations saw over 2" where the rainfall was heavier, but for the most part the totals were fairly uniform. It was cloudy and dreary for much of this Tuesday with patchy light rain and drizzle through early afternoon as wrap-around moisture was locked in place in the wake of all the rain from Monday into early this morning. The pesky, low stratus deck finally began to wither away late this afternoon as high pressure slid down the base of the Rockies. It remained on the cool side today with temperatures hovering between the upper 40s and mid 50s throughout the day depending upon where you were in the forecast area. CAA strengthened behind a stronger, secondary cold front which came through first thing this morning. Winds were out of the NNW between 10 and 20 mph all day. Rain chances are non-existent now, and skies will continue to clear tonight. Colder air will also continue to filter into the region, and temperatures by morning will be in the mid 30s across the area. Frost should not be an issue due to all the lingering moisture and enough atmospheric mixing created by a continued NNW wind across the area.
Great weather is in store for the Wednesday through Friday period with a nice area of high pressure in control of the weather across the Gulf Coastal Plain. Wall to wall sunshine is expected beginning Wednesday as skies will have cleared across the entire forecast area. Temperatures will remain below normal for afternoon highs. The chilly morning will give way to a pleasantly cool afternoon with highs reaching the middle 50s on average. Winds will slacken during the day as high pressure continues to build into the area. The coldest night of the week is on tap for Wednesday night into Thursday as winds completely decouple, and clear skies remain en vogue. The stage will be set for a night of maximum radiational cooling. By sunrise Thursday, temperatures will be at or just below freezing across all areas from I-10 northward. The coastline should be exempt from this light freeze. Frost seems like a good bet for Thursday morning with the calm winds across the area allowing for no atmospheric mixing, thus allowing condensation to form. Thursday will be another spectacular January day with nothing but sunshine expected. Afternoon temperatures will be just a few degrees warmer than that of Wednesday as a slow air mass modification ensues. Expect a very pleasant late January day with highs in the upper 50s to around 60. This Pacific air mass will warm up a lot faster than an Arctic or Canadian air mass would. Greatness continues for Friday with the high pressure locked in place across the Gulf Coastal Plain. Another cold morning is expected on Friday, but given the air mass modification it won't be quite as cold with morning lows generally in the low to mid 30s. Afternoon highs will likely eclipse the 60 degree mark, and top out around normal. A very light surface wind will be in place.
The weekend will start off beautifully. Saturday will continue the nice stretch of weather, and the warming trend will continue. Morning lows will be seasonably cool with readings generally in the mid 30s to around 40. Afternoon highs will continue their uptick as well reaching the middle 60s as an average. That is trending above normal for the end of January. Skies should remain generally clear with dry air still in place as the high will be reluctant to move away. That is good news for anyone who may have outdoor plans this weekend. The area of high pressure will start the day anchored over the state, but as the day progresses it will orient itself to our East as the main flow in place across the Southern U.S. finally causes the Eastward shift. A subtle return flow of Gulf moisture will commence in the afternoon, but it will hardly be noticeable because the deeper moisture will still be displaced well offshore. Warmer temperatures are expected for the Saturday night-Sunday morning period with the presence of the return flow. We will remain on the Western flank of the large surface high to keep the benign weather pattern going. Skies should stay Mostly Clear, and there could be the presence of some fog by Sunday morning given the established return flow. Expect a seasonably cool morning as you head out to church with readings typically in the low to mid 40s. Clouds will start to increase during the day Sunday in advance of the next strong trough and attendant cold front. Deeper moisture will return, but conditions should remain dry with mid and upper level high pressure still in place. The marine influence may knock high temperatures back a few degrees for Sunday afternoon, but overall temps will still be at or above seasonal norms. Some of our model guidance does suggest some shower activity by late Sunday afternoon, but I still have my doubts that this will come to fruition at this point. The onshore flow will certainly intensify ahead of this next trough.
The aforementioned trough will evolve and affect our area next week. There is still plenty of discrepancy with respect to timing and intensity. Certainly, air mass type shower activity is expected overnight Sunday into Monday. This should be scattered in nature. The better opportunity for widespread rain and a few thunderstorms will likely come later on during the day Monday into Monday night ahead of the cold front. There looks to be enough instability in place to warrant a chance for thunderstorms, but given the usual winter time environment no severe weather is expected. There will be several key ingredients that are required to produce severe weather that will be lacking. We will have the potential for another decent rain event across the forecast area in advance of this front Monday, but again the usual discrepancies this far out still exist, and will keep me from overdoing it on rain chances at this point. WAA will prevail in the pre-frontal environment with morning lows into the mid 40s again while warming is inhibited in the afternoon by the chance of showers and extensive cloud cover. Highs should reach the lower 60s again, but this could be the end of sufficient warmth for a little while if some of the current prognostications are correct at the end of the forecast period. This front will be rather strong, and I surmise that models are underestimating the front and are several degrees too warm for Tuesday (day 7). Right now, I peg frontal passage for late Monday evening into Monday night. This means that Tuesday we should see strong CAA over the area, and temperatures may be going the opposite direction even during the day. This all hinges on how much of an Arctic tap we receive behind the front. This far out models often seem clueless about how cold it may turn out to be. Certainly, models do trend to below normal again as February rolls in, but again I believe they are still too warm. It is anyone's guess how cold it will be on Tuesday, but I am undercutting guidance by several degrees, and hinting at a very small diurnal range. In fact, I reflect falling temps as CAA strengthens as the front moves further away. This air mass will likely be very shallow, and that's another reason models are having issues. This also means that we won't clear out behind the front. Models have been consistent with an overrunning situation developing across the area. An active Jet Stream may help to initiate a surface low in the Rio Grande Valley and downstream short waves will advect through the area as well. This will more than likely mean higher rain chances in the post-frontal environment. This is all subject to change, and will likely create quite a buzz in the weather office for the next few days. Models continue to indicate an unsettled, wet & cold regime for much of next week. There may very well be another Southern Winter Storm somewhere close by, but just a plain ole cold rain here with temperatures in the 40s the way I see it right now. Surely, as we turn the calendar to February we will be reminded that it is still winter!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 36/56 31/59 35/62 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 38/56 31/58 34/61 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 36/57 32/60 36/63 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 30/53 27/57 31/60 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 31/53 28/57 31/61 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 39/56 33/59 35/62 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clearing & Colder. Low 36. NNW wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 56. North wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear & Cold w/ a Light Freeze. Frost likely. Low 31. Calm wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 59. West wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear & Not Quite as Cold. Patchy Frost Possible. Low 35. Light West wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 62. West wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday 1/26/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 36
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 43
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 9
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 50
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
1-26-11
Low: 36
High: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Thursday
1-27-11
Low: 31
High: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
Friday
1-28-11
Low: 35
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
Saturday
1-29-11
Low: 39
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 5-10
Sunday
1-30-11
Low: 44
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
1-31-11
Low: 47
High: 60
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20
Tuesday
2-1-11
Low: 40
High: 43
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNE 15-20
W.C.: 30s
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 2:00a.m. 2:59p.m.
High: 10:19a.m. 7:07p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.37'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Low: 40
Normal Low: 41
Record Low: 22-1963
High: 60
Normal High: 61
Record High: 82-1914
Rainfall
Today: 0.11"
Month to Date: 3.73"
Normal Month to Date: 4.55"
Year to Date: 3.73"
Normal Year to Date: 4.55"
Record: 1.60"- 1976
Sensible Weather Observed:
Rain
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 38
High: 65
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 38
High: 70
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 35
High: 62
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:07a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:45p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:37a.m.-6:15p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 26
New Moon- Thursday February 3
First Quarter- Friday February 11
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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