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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Oh, man! Is it cold? It was nice to see the sunshine to today after an extended period of the gray doldrums. A surge of Arctic air arrived today as an Arctic cold front swept through the region. This front help scour out the pesky low clouds as drier air finally took over in all levels of the atmosphere, and there was no longer the present of a temperature inversion in the boundary layer. It remained cold despite plentiful sunshine this afternoon. Afternoon highs reached the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. This came after morning lows which ranged from near freezing to the upper 30s across the area. Now, the stage is set for some very cold weather to continue across the region. Tonight will be the first of three straight nights of hard freeze conditions. A hard freeze will likely occur all the way to the coastline. This air mass is by far the coldest air so far this season. It also comes on the heels of the big winter storm this past weekend. The cold Arctic air is being transported over the snow and ice covered ground off to our NW. This will not allow for much modification as the big high builds towards the NW Gulf Coastal Plain. Certainly, hard freeze conditions will be met tonight, but temperatures may not reach their full potential. The main reason being the continued Northerly breezes. Winds have died down somewhat in the wake of the cold front, but the associated pressure differences will keep winds blowing out of the North on the order of 10-15 mph through the night. Tonight's cooling will essentially be a CAA cooling event. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s across the forecast area, and we will experience freezing temperatures for 6-12 hours depending upon where you are in the area. Temperatures between 21 and 28 across the area with the continued Northerly breeze will create an even colder apparent temperature (wind chill). The wind chill readings will fall into the 15-20 degree range by sunrise Wednesday. Skies will be clear throughout the night to aid in the cooling process.
This very cold and dry air mass will be around for awhile. Full sunshine is expected as we start the day Wednesday as the big area of Arctic high pressure continues to slide down the base of the Rockies towards the Red River Valley. At the same time, a disturbed and fast Jet Stream which has us entrenched in a NW flow aloft will eject a minor disturbance in the upper levels. The only impacts from this feature will be some very high and thin cirrus clouds streaming overhead from time to time beginning Wednesday afternoon. Only a modest warm up is expected as CAA offsets the maximum potential for daytime heating. Expect highs to be well below normal ranging from the low to mid 40s across the area. Models are a bit too warm given the expected high clouds in the afternoon, and the continued effects of the cold air being transported SE over a snowpack in NE Texas, SW Arkansas, and SE Oklahoma and into extreme Northern Louisiana. Winds will continue to subside some during the day Wednesday, but due to the orientation of the Arctic high we won't experience dead calm conditions just yet. The dry and cold pattern continues Wednesday night into Thursday. The aforementioned high cloudiness will become a bit more noticeable during this period as the emanating short wave moves over the area. This short wave is moving into a very moisture starved atmosphere, so no precipitation is expected, much to the chagrin of snow lovers. The high clouds will more than likely not hamper us from reaching hard freeze criteria heading into Thursday, however, it could keep us a degree or two warmer than tonight if the clouds are thicker than expected. For now, models suggest the clouds will not be thick enough to offset radiational cooling, and the forecast reflects that Thursday morning will be a hair colder than Wednesday. Upper 10s to lower 20s seem like a good call, especially with snow cover to our North. Wind chills will fall into the mid to upper 10s again for Thursday morning. Take proper precautions
against that. Also, remember to protect your plants, pets, and pipes for these hard freeze conditions.
The very cold and dry air reigns supreme through Thursday. The cirrus deck will envelop the region, and may filter the cold January sunshine at times. High temperatures will still be well below January norms. Maximums should only reach the mid 40s at best, this will be just a degree or two above what we reach on Wednesday. Here's a brief aside...this cold weather is very fitting for this second week of January as it was 14 years ago that we endured the worst winter storm ever in SW Louisiana history. Many of you may remember the prolonged ice storm that plagued the area from January 12-14, 1997. It began in the late night hours on January 11 as some light snow in the Lake Charles area. I will have a complete look back on the costly natural winter disaster on tomorrow's edition of the blog. Back to the present weather, the high clouds will vacate the region late Thursday, and skies will be cloud free once again for Thursday night. The high pressure will be making its closest approach to SW Louisiana during the day Thursday into Thursday night, and this will set the stage for another night of maximum radiational cooling conditions. Thus, we will experience a hard freeze for three consecutive nights. Low temperatures for the Thursday night-Friday morning period will be in the lower 20s yet again. The coldest locations may very well drop into the 10s again. Given the concern over cloud cover for Wednesday night, Thursday night could very well turn out to be the coldest night of this episode.
The thaw begins on Friday after the morning hard freeze. The strong high will shift Eastward, and that will usher in a subtle return flow during the day. There will be enough of a return flow under crystal clear skies to bring temperatures back into the 50s for maximums. This is still below normal, but it will feel much more comfortable compared to what we will endure the next couple of days. Humidity values will slowly begin to work their way back into the area, but it won't be all that noticeable at first. Dry weather will persist along with the warming trend as we head into the weekend. A light freeze is expected for the majority of the area on Saturday morning as the moisture return will be rather slow at first. Clear skies are expected, and most everyone from I-10 Northward will get into the freezing category again, however, no hard freeze is expected this period. I surmise that some patchy fog could form overnight given the return flow, but the dry and cold ground should limit this even with a return flow in place. This is not mentioned in the forecast at this juncture. The weekend will start off very nicely with a good deal of sunshine anticipated for Saturday. A mix of sun and clouds is likely as low-level moisture increases, but overall it will be a very nice day with the warming trend becoming more progressive. Highs will top out near the normal values in the lower 60s...that sounds great!
Low-level moisture will continue to increase in response to the more pronounced Southerly flow, and low temperatures will be very close to seasonal norms for the Saturday night-Sunday period. Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy skies are expected, and there may be a bigger issue with fog heading into Sunday. Certainly, with plenty of time to monitor this possibility, no mention of said fog is reflected at this point in time. Sunday should remain dry for the most part, but we will likely experience a day with more clouds than sun as moisture levels become plentiful ahead of the next sharp trough. Deeper moisture pooling over the area later in the day may be the focus for a few showers, but this doesn't appear to be a widespread issue at this point. The better rain chances will come later on. Mild weather is in store for Sunday with highs likely exceeding normal for the first time in over a week. Expect values to reach the mid 60s on average. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area with the next cold front approaching. This will help increase the amount of Gulf moisture over the area. Rain chances ramp up on the holiday Monday, Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Keep this in mind if you have anything planned. This does not look like a big rain event at this time with the main dynamics and instability with this system bypassing the area. The trough will continue to sharpen, and its associated cold front will make inroads towards our part of the world. Pooling moisture ahead of the front combined with daytime heating will more than likely produce some shower activity, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. There is still plenty of time to hone in on specifics with this system, so let's do that later this week. A mild temperature regime is slated for Monday with lows around 50 and highs close to 70. I think we will fall short of the 70 degree mark. The cold front will take its time pushing through the area Monday night into Tuesday. Rain chances will remain slight into Tuesday as moisture lingers behind the front. CAA takes over on Tuesday, and temperatures will return to below normal at least for highs. Lows will still be slightly above normal as cold air lags behind the front for a time. The cold air will be transported Southward by strong winds in the wake of the front. Models are consistent with the arrival of yet another Arctic air mass beginning Tuesday, but more so just beyond this forecast period. It is too early to speculate how cold it might be, but if the Arctic air runs the gamut and is directly transported SE towards the Gulf coast, it could easily match the air mass that is currently over the area.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 25/46 23/44 24/53 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 25/45 23/44 23/52 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 26/47 24/45 25/55 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 20/44 18/42 20/48 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 20/44 19/43 21/49 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 27/47 24/46 24/53 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear & Very Cold w/ a Hard Freeze. Low 25. North wind 10-15 mph. Wind chill readings between 15 and 20 by morning.
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny with Increasing High Cloudiness in the afternoon. Cold. Low 46. North wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy & Very Cold w/ another Hard Freeze. Low 23. Light North wind.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. Continued Cold. High 44. North wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear & Very Cold Once Again w/ Another Hard Freeze. Low 24. Calm wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny & Warmer. High 53. East wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday 1/12/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Very Cold
Temp: 25
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 12
W.C. 16
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 30
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 22
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 38
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
W.C.: 32
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 46
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
W.C.: 43
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 37
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 4
W.C.: 35
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
W.C.: 28
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
1-12-11
14 Year Anniversary of Ice Storm '97
Low: 25
High: 46
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 15-35
Thursday
1-13-11
Low: 23
High:: 44
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 15-35
Friday
1-14-11
Low: 24
High: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
W.C.: 20-40
Saturday
1-15-11
Low: 32
High: 60
Rain: SE 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
Sunday
1-16-11
Low: 43
High: 65
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
1-17-11
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Low: 50
High: 68
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW 15-20
Tuesday
1-18-11
Low: 47
High: 54
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect until Thursday morning.*
Tonight...North winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 3:02a.m. 1:48p.m.
High: 10:41a.m. 7:22p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.87'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Low: 33
Normal Low: 41
Record Low: 15-1982
High: 51
Normal High: 60
Record High: 79-1980
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.94"
Normal Month to Date: 1.99"
Year to Date: 1.94"
Normal Year to Date: 1.99"
Record: 2.90"- 1900
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 21
High: 52
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 33
High: 64
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 45
High: 57
Rain: 0.56"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:10a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:32p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:40a.m.-6:02p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Full Moon- Wednesday January 19
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 26
New Moon- Thursday February 3
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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