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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I think the best way to describe this Monday is a song by the Carpenters..."Rainy Days and Mondays." This rainy day and Monday may have gotten a lot of you down, but I sure hope you had a good day. It has been rather dreary as the much advertised storm is ongoing. It has been raining pretty much all day, but thankfully so far it has mostly been on the light side. It has been on the cool side throughout the day with not much movement in the actual temperature. Temperatures hovered generally in the mid 50s all day. Rainfall amounts so far have generally been 1/2" or less, but all of us have seen at least some rain. The same story is expected for the overnight hours, however, the rain will increase in intensity. A solid mass of rain with very few breaks encompasses the entire forecast area tonight. It should continue raining into Tuesday morning before any improvement is noted. The culprit is a combination of a weak cold front which has slid into the coastal waters, an advancing and weakening short wave which is moving from West to East across the Southern U.S., and a developing surface low in the Gulf of Mexico. The surface low is generally traversing the weak cold front which has essentially stalled over the coastal waters tonight. This low will parallel the coast moving from SW to NE through the night. It will make its closest approach to SW Louisiana later tonight, and as it does so lift and instability will continue to increase across the area. The end result will be continued rain with pockets of heavy rain and possibly isolated thunderstorms especially for the Southern half of the area.
Weak CAA will be in place as well as the forecast area will remain in the cool sector of this system. Temperatures will not deviate much from where they are now. Morning readings will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across this part of the world. An additional 1/2-1" of rain is expected into Tuesday morning. Rain chances will be nearly maxed out for the overnight hours, but begin to taper down during the day Tuesday. The surface low will continue to migrate NE overnight, and finally accelerate further away from the area during the day Tuesday. This weather that truly defines winter in SW Louisiana will continue until we get this out of our hair. No severe weather is expected, but don't be surprised to see some brief heavy downpours and maybe even some thunderstorms especially over Acadiana where the most instability will be in place. The surface low will remain over the coastal waters. The advancing short wave will continue to weaken and eventually shear out as it moves on by in tandem with the surface low. While rain chances will taper down on Tuesday, we will hang on to the clouds and keep the mention of some lingering light rain and/or drizzle in the forecast for the balance of the day Tuesday. The weather will remain damp and dreary until a second, stronger cold front and backside upper level low move through later in the day Tuesday. Better rain chances will exist in the morning hours with the low in closer proximity, but the slow improvement starts in the afternoon. A very small diurnal range will be in place once again for Tuesday mostly because of the continued cloudiness and periodic rain, but also because of strengthening cold air advection. Expect maximum temperatures to remain below normal only reaching the mid 50s at best, and I would surmise that temperatures may begin to fall in the afternoon as colder air works in behind the second front. An offshore flow will strengthen as the pressure anomalies increase in response to the evacuating low pressure.
Rain chances finally come to an end Tuesday night with high pressure building in behind the secondary cold front. The high pressure will help usher in a colder and drier air mass, and help to decrease moisture in the boundary layer. Clouds will hang on for a little while longer as it will take some time to get the stratus deck to dissipate, but that should occur in the overnight hours. The air in the wake of the second front will not be all that cold, but it certainly cool off into jacket territory once again by Wednesday morning. Low temperatures will be in the 35-40 range across this forecast area, and that can be termed seasonably cold. That's nothing out of the ordinary for the last week of January. Wednesday will be an absolutely beautiful day with high pressure well established across the Gulf Coastal Plain. Abundant sunshine is expected, and afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s, again that is seasonably cool. It will feel fairly pleasant because there won't be much in the way of wind to contend with since the high pressure will be very close to us. The tranquil weather will be a nice switch from this present dreariness. You will be happy to know that the pretty weather at mid-week will persist for several days with a series of reinforcing fronts and surface high pressures influencing the region. The coldest night of the week will come on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A light freeze is possible then as conditions will be ideal for radiational cooling with clear skies and calm winds. The air mass will be very dry, and of Pacific origin so there will be a wider diurnal range expected by Thursday. A subtle warm up ensues with highs reaching the upper 50s or so. There will be some clouds possible for the Wednesday night/Thursday period as one of the positive reinforcements moves into the region. Timing and density of expectant cloud cover will ultimately determine our temperatures for this period, but no rain is expected with plenty of dry air in place.
The work week will end on a quiet note as well. High pressure will control the weather across the Southern U.S. for Friday. Plenty of sunshine is expected once again. It will be another cold morning with lows at or just above freezing. Some frost is possible with an ideal set up in place overnight Thursday. Again, this is a Pacific air mass that will be in place, so a continued warming trend is expected with respect to maximum temperatures. A seasonable afternoon is expected with readings at or near the 60 degree threshold. The final weekend of January won't be too bad at all. Clear weather should prevail for Saturday with high pressure slowly moving Eastward. The warm up will only amplify at this point. Morning lows will trend towards normal reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s depending upon your location in the forecast area. You know the drill by now, cooler further inland, and warmest at the coast. It looks great for making outdoor plans on Saturday as highs easily eclipse the 60 degree mark. It may possibly be as warm as 65 in some areas. That's about perfect especially with low humidity in place. Low level moisture will begin to increase Saturday night as a return flow sets up over the region with Pacific high pressure sliding Eastward. The presence of a zonal flow will allow for faster air mass modification, and morning lows by Sunday should be at or slightly above normal for late January, in the lower to middle 40s. Clouds will increase during the day Sunday as the next storm system approaches, however, I will keep things dry for now. I believe the next rain maker will evolve a bit slower than models presently predict. The temperature warming trend will continue with high temperatures possibly getting as warm as 70, for now mid 60s will suffice.
The next rain maker is on tap for early next week as we round out the month of January. There is still a lot of uncertainty for the end of the forecast period. Models disagree on moisture amounts and rainfall totals. There are also discrepancies with respect to temperatures in this time frame and into the first few days of February. Certainly, it looks like the next big trough and associated cold front will drop into the area on Monday to give us a chance for rain. There could be some thunderstorms in the equation as well if there is sufficient instability present, but for now just a general rain is mentioned. Rain chances may ultimately wind up in the likely category next Monday as well (seems to be a pattern here). At present due to the aforementioned discrepancies, I will broadbrush rain chances for now at 30-40%. The progressive warm up will more than likely level off due to the clouds and rain and the approaching front. Morning lows will be in the mid 40s while afternoon highs reach the mid 60s. The cold front looks pretty strong, however, models are backing off a bit on the amount of cold air that may filter in behind the front at the end of this forecast period. The overall pattern still favors a big cool down, and certainly another visit from the Arctic can't be ruled out judging by the continued build up of cold air in Canada. Oft times, models will flip-flop towards climo in the 7-10 period after consistently showing a big blast of cold air in the long range. That could certainly be the case this go around. Either way, the next big cool down looks to come just beyond this forecast period. The models also hint at an unsettled pattern continuing beyond this forecast period. An overrunning situation is favored for the first couple days of February. This is consistent with models, they have been showing a system around Groundhog Day for several days now. Rain chances will be high if this is the case, and it is anyone's guess about temperatures at this point. Stay tuned!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 48/53 36/55 31/58 90 40 0 0 0 0
LFT 50/55 36/54 32/58 100 60 0 0 0 0
BPT 48/52 35/56 33/60 70 30 0 0 0 0
AEX 44/47 32/53 29/56 80 40 0 0 0 0
POE 44/47 33/54 30/56 80 40 0 0 0 0
ARA 51/55 37/55 32/58 100 60 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Cloudy with rain likely. Rain could be heavy at times especially East of Lake Charles. Low 48. NNE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 90%.
Tuesday...Cloudy with a 40% chance of lingering light rain and/or drizzle periodically through the day. High 53. Temperatures falling back into the 40s in the afternoon. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Decreasing Cloudiness & Colder. Low 36. NNW wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 55. NNW wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Cold. Low 31. Light North wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 58. North wind 10 mph.
Tuesday 1/25/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Light Rain
Temp: 48
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNE 12
9a.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ Areas of Light Rain/Drizzle
Temp: 49
Rain: 40%
Wind: NNW 12
Noon
Weather: Cloudy w/ Patchy Drizzle or Light Rain
Temp: 50
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 11
3p.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 48
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 10
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 45
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 9
9p.m.
Weather: Slow Clearing Begins
Temp: 45
Rain: 10%
Wind: NNW 10
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
1-25-11
Low: 48
High: 53
Rain: 40%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
1-26-11
Low: 36
High: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 5-10
Thursday
1-27-11
Low: 31
High: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Friday
1-28-11
Low: 34
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
1-29-11
Low: 39
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Sunday
1-30-11
Low: 43
High: 62
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10
Monday
1-31-11
Low: 46
High: 58
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of rain.
Tuesday Night...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12:51a.m. 1:08p.m.
High: 8:22a.m. 6:28p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.13'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, January 24, 2011
Low: 50
Normal Low: 41
Record Low: 12-1948
High: 55
Normal High: 61
Record High: 82-1909
Rainfall
Today: 0.23"
Month to Date: 3.25"
Normal Month to Date: 4.38"
Year to Date: 3.25"
Normal Year to Date: 4.38"
Record: 6.60"- 1915
Sensible Weather Observed:
Rain
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 53
High: 69
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 42
High: 67
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 34
High: 61
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:07a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:44p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:37a.m.-6:14p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 26
New Moon- Thursday February 3
First Quarter- Friday February 11
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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