Sunday, January 23, 2011
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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...After a perfect Saturday, albeit a little cold, and a decent Sunday with plenty of cloud cover in the afternoon, the weather goes downhill for the start of the last full work week of January. The area of Canadian high pressure that was in place and provided hard freeze conditions on Saturday morning has shifted Eastward throughout the day on this Sunday. As a result, a return flow of Gulf air has commenced thanks to an onshore flow. Clouds have also increased over the area in advance of our next big weather maker. It has been a dry weekend, but this will be changing in the very near future. Highs today were at seasonable levels reaching the lower 60s just before the cloud cover rolled in this afternoon. This came after a beautiful morning with temperatures near freezing. It was several degrees warmer than Saturday thanks to the commencement of the return flow. Cloudiness will continue to blanket the area today with ceilings lowering, and the cloud deck itself thickening as the night wears on. Temperatures will be much warmer, at or above seasonable levels in the low to mid 40s. The overnight hours should be dry for the most part, but as we head into Monday rain chances will be back in the forecast. A slow moving cold front will bring us the initial chance of rain Monday morning. This front will be weakening as it moves towards the coast. Scattered shower activity is expected in the pre-frontal environment Monday morning. Rain chances will enter the equation around sunrise.
The cold front is just one piece to the puzzle in what will be a wet start to the week. We will also contend with a short wave emanating outward from the main Jet Stream. This short wave will be in the process of shearing out (weakening) as it moves towards the forecast area. This will work in tandem with the aforementioned cold front to create sufficient lifting over the forecast area on Monday to increase rain chances further as the day wears on. Activity should be on a mostly scattered basis in the morning hours as the front pulls up stationary near the coast. The shearing short wave will combine with the cold front and create additional Jet Stream energy. This will translate into Gulf cyclogenesis beginning during the afternoon hours on Monday. Rain chances will continue to increase as lifting increases further. This will cause rain to become more widespread in nature as the coastal low throws moisture up and over the forecast area. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity by Monday evening, likely encompassing the entire forecast area. As the low propagates NE (parallel to the cold front) instability will increase as well, and some isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out from Monday afternoon through Monday night. The highest prospects for this will be in coastal parishes. Periods of heavy rainfall are possible for all of us especially Monday night as convergence maxes out and the low makes its closest approach to SW Louisiana causing the maximum potential for atmospheric lifting. Rainfall totals will likely exceed 1" with average QPF amounts in the 1-2" range across the area. Some isolated locations may see around 3" of the wet stuff, but everyone will certainly get in on some much needed soaking rainfall. The usual timing inequities are present, but there is reasonable consensus from the forecast models that the worst of the weather will hold off until the late afternoon hours of Monday through Monday night. High temperatures will be a little on the cool side, generally topping out in the mid to upper 50s. There is not a whole lot of cold air behind this front, and since it will be weakening the cooling in its wake will be limited.
A solid shield of rain will encompass the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. Expect it to rain pretty much all night as the low continues its NE migratory pattern. Rain chances will be maxed out for the overnight period through early Tuesday as all of this energy is displaced over the region. Modest CAA will filter into the region as the weak front settles into the coastal waters. The shearing out short wave will also translate Eastward across the state, continuing the moisture dispersion across the area. Overnight temperatures will be not be all that cool with weak CAA in place. Ultimately, they may remain above normal with mid to upper 40s a good call across the area. The rain continues into Tuesday as the low finally pulls away. The threat for heavy rain will wind down in the morning hours with the departure of the low, however, rain chances will remain with us for the balance of the day on Tuesday. A second and stronger cold front will have no trouble pushing through during the day Tuesday, and this front will create additional lift and help to scour out all the remaining moisture. Additional rainfall during the day on Tuesday should generally be on the light side. An additional 1/2" of rain is expected. Colder air will filter in Tuesday afternoon, and it may well turn out to be a day when temperatures are confused. Highs will be in the lower 50s early, before temperatures drop back into the 40s during the afternoon with CAA increasing across the area. Rain chances will be in the likely category for much of the day, but finally begin to taper downward in the afternoon as moisture levels undergo only a slow reduction. Rain chances continue to dwindle Tuesday night, but it will likely be early Wednesday before we can completely dismiss rain chances. Colder air continues to stream into the area from NW to SE, and a renewed period of below normal temperatures is expected. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s by sunrise Wednesday with a noted slow improvement across the area.
Much quieter weather is on tap as we head for the mid week forecast period. High pressure builds in behind the Tuesday mess. Beautiful late January weather is expected after a cold start. Plenty of sunshine will be present for our Wednesday, and it will be a bit cool for this time of year. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 50s. That is similar to the readings were realized across the forecast area on Saturday, so without the presence of much wind it should feel pleasant in the afternoon. Another cold night is on tap for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. How cold is in question because there may be an increase in high cloudiness as an embedded vort max (disturbance) rides down the Jet Stream in the established NW flow aloft. This will cause a noticeable increase in cirrus clouds across the area, but the atmosphere will be very dry, and this system will be very moisture starved, so only an increase of clouds will be noted for Wednesday night into Thursday. The amount of cloud cover is still in question, but it could be sufficient enough to limit maximum cooling potential. Overnight lows will be reflected because of this despite continued CAA. Expect lows to bottom out near the freezing mark. If the clouds don't come then we will likely drop into the upper 20s. Thursday will remain dry with filtered sunshine thanks to the high clouds at least for the morning hours. A re-enforcement cold front will move through Thursday afternoon, and take the clouds with it. Afternoon highs will be in the same realm as they were on Wednesday. CAA will re-intensify during the day as the front comes through, but again a very moisture starved atmosphere will be in place, so no rain is expected.
Dry weather continues to close out the work week with secondary surges of high pressure in place. We will enjoy a period of tranquil but chilly weather through Friday. High pressure will be well established across the Gulf South. Morning lows will be a bit cold with lows close to 30. A light freeze should be realized along and North of I-10. Plenty of sunshine is expected for Friday, but a few high clouds may stream across from time to time. A light offshore flow will persist due to the orientation of the surface high pressure. Benign weather continues for Friday night and into the weekend. Expect another clear and unseasonably chilly night. Lows will be back down into the 30s once again across the area with the persistent NW flow continuing. At this point in time, it looks like another decent weekend setting up across the area. It's never too early to talk about another weekend. Saturday highs will warm up to seasonably cool levels once again. Expect upper 50s for daily maxes. Modest CAA will cease during the day. Yet another reinforcement front arrives on Sunday, but again a very moisture starved atmosphere will remain in place with no mention of rain expected at this time. We will have the presence of a return flow by Saturday night ahead of this front. Some increase in cloud cover is expected ahead of said front. Temperatures will reflect this positive reinforcement as well. Morning lows will be around the seasonal norm into the upper 30s and lower 40s, while afternoon highs will drop back into the low to mid 50s depending upon how deep the cold air ends up being across the forecast area. Looking into the extended, as we close out January next Monday, there are signs that continue to indicate another major Arctic outbreak will be poised to head in our direction. However, exactly how much of a direct transport and the exact timing remain at a high uncertainty. You can't ignore that the extremely cold air is building in Canada, and with a blocking high in place over Greenland, that will more than likely support the cold air over Western and Northern Canada to be dislodged at some point. At any rate, this will be the developments we need to watch for next week. This air will have the potential to be the coldest air so far this season as we get into the first few days of February. Let us focus on this very influential storm at the beginning of the week here before we get more specific about any ramifications the cold air may have.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 48/57 48/52 31/54 10 60 100 70 20 0
LFT 45/56 47/53 31/55 10 40 100 70 30 0
BPT 50/58 50/51 32/56 20 60 100 60 20 0
AEX 40/53 44/48 28/50 10 30 100 60 20 0
POE 40/53 44/48 28/50 10 30 100 60 20 0
ARA 45/58 49/55 32/55 10 40 100 70 30 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with some isolated showers possible after midnight. Low 48. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday...Cloudy with a slight chance of morning rain. Rain becoming likely in the afternoon. Heavy rain possible late. Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well. High 57. ENE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Monday Night...Cloudy with widespread rain & isolated thunderstorms. Rain pretty much all night long. 1-2" of rain expected. Low 48. NNE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday...Cloudy with morning rain likely. Rain tapering off through the day. Mainly lingering light rain and/or drizzle in the afternoon. Turning Colder. High 52 with falling temperatures in the afternoon. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of lingering showers before midnight. Decreasing Cloudiness in the pre-dawn hours. Colder. Low 31. NNW wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 54. North wind 10 mph.
Monday 1/24/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 48
Rain: 20%
Wind: SE 6
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ a Few Showers Around
Temp: 51
Rain: 30%
Wind: SE 8
Noon
Weather: Rain Increasing
Temp: 54
Rain: 40%
Wind: E 10
3p.m.
Weather: Rain
Temp: 57
Rain: 60%
Wind: ENE 12
6p.m.
Weather: Rain...Heavy at Times
Temp: 54
Rain: 80%
Wind: ENE 7
9p.m.
Weather: Rain...Heavy at Times
Temp: 51
Rain: 100%
Wind: NNE 14
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
1-24-11
Low: 48
High: 57
Rain: 60% Day...100% Night
Wind: SE/NNE 10-15
Tuesday
1-25-11
Low: 48
High: 52
Rain: 70%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
1-26-11
Low: 31
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Thursday
1-27-11
Low: 33
High: 52
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Friday
1-28-11
Low: 30
High: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Saturday
1-29-11
Low: 34
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Sunday
1-30-11
Low: 40
High: 54
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. A slight chance of rain after midnight.
Monday...East winds around 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon.
Monday Night...East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A slight chance of rain in the evening.
Wednesday...North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12:01p.m.
High: 6:13a.m. 5:58p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.09'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Low: 33
Normal Low: 41
Record Low: 17-1948
High: 60
Normal High: 61
Record High: 85-1914
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.02"
Normal Month to Date: 4.21"
Year to Date: 3.02"
Normal Year to Date: 4.21"
Record: 2.58"- 1938
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 57
High: 73
Rain: Trace
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 50
High: 59
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 31
High: 54
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Monday: 7:07a.m.
Sunset Monday: 5:43p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:37a.m.-6:13p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 26
New Moon- Thursday February 3
First Quarter- Friday February 11
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
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