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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Twas another great day weather wise across our beautiful part of the world. It was a chilly start with temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the area, meanwhile afternoon highs climbed into the 60s...just about perfect! The only blemish today was some scattered, thin cirrus clouds that streamed across the sky from time to time mainly in the morning hours as a minor disturbance ejected Eastward across the state. The sky is null and void of all clouds tonight and high pressure is firmly secured at all levels of the atmosphere. A very light offshore flow remains in tact as well with the surface high positioned into East Texas. The dry air mass and clear skies will set the stage for another chilly late January night. We should easily fall into the 30s once again across the majority of the forecast area. Average lows will be in the mid 30s, and some frost is possible especially north of the I-10 corridor. The nice weather will stick around for Friday. After the chilly start, we will see a nice warm up with the slowly progressing warming trend continuing. Expect afternoon highs to reach the mid 60s yet again. This will be trending above the seasonal norm. No complaints here! Tranquility continues for Friday night, but we will experience a return flow with the high sliding Eastward. Morning lows will respond accordingly as we head into Saturday. Expect readings generally from the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. Skies should generally stay clear.
The weekend will start off dry, but big changes will occur. There is reasonable agreement from the models with respect to how things will transpire this weekend. Cloudiness will increase as the day wears on. Our next storm system is on board, and has officially been ingested by the upper air stream that drives our model output. This vigorous upper level low is located over Baja California and will translate NE into the weekend. It will the cloudiness in advance of this system that envelopes the forecast area Saturday. While surface moisture will increase at first with a noticeable difference in humidity values, the mid and upper levels will still be relatively dry. Thus, rain chances will remain out of the forecast. The warming trend will be enhanced by the onshore flow. Highs will easily reach the mid 60s again, but some locations could approach the 70 degree mark. It looks fine for anything you may have planned outdoors. Rain chances return possibly as early as Saturday night in advance of the big cut off upper low. Instability and lifting increase significantly, and the upper level cap erodes. Some scattered activity will occur as the boundary layer moistens up. The mild temperature regime will hold in check as well with morning lows heading into Sunday only in the upper 40s to around 50. Rain is likely Sunday, and given the amount of instability that will be in place as per the latest model guidance it wouldn't surprise me to see a few thunderstorms. This upper low will create plenty of cold air aloft, and that is what creates instability. Pockets of heavy rain will be possible as well, and rainfall totals may exceed 1" in some areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected at this time, but certainly a good soaker is on tap. Anything you have planned outdoors on Sunday, you might want to push to Saturday. Expect to need your rain gear on the way to and from church. High temperatures will top out in the mid 60s, perhaps a degree or two cooler than Saturday given the rainy conditions. The potent upper level low moves on by Sunday night, and rain chances drop off dramatically. Somewhat cooler air filters into the region by Sunday night as the aforementioned system energizes the Jet Stream, and creates frontogenesis over Texas. The weak cool front sweeps through on the tail end of the upper level storm, and helps bring rain chances down.
Next week there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning an Arctic blast that should arrive on Tuesday. First, Monday doesn't look terrible. It will remain overcast, and modest CAA will keep temperatures below normal at least for highs. Temperatures in the morning will be in the lower 50s or so, but only warm up into the upper 50s to around 60 at best. A bit of overrunning will be in place with moisture trapped in the boundary layer, and another system quickly approaching. Therefore, there will be a slight chance of rain for Monday, but any rainfall will be scattered, and on the light side. The weather dramatically goes downhill again Monday night into Tuesday. A secondary and stronger system is in line to impact our region on Tuesday. Isentropic ascent (overrunning) increases Monday night in advance such that a few showers will certainly be possible. Certainly, the overcast conditions will persist, and it will be relatively mild to close out the month of January with readings holding in the upper 40s to around 50. That's a little bit above normal, but that will ultimately be the end of above normalcy for awhile. This second system is going to be a conglomeration of events. First, another upper level disturbance will be thrown into the equation. Next, Jet Stream energy will intensify as the overall pattern shifts back to a NW flow across the Eastern half of the U.S. This will induce surface cyclogenesis to our West. The weak front from Sunday will be situated over the Gulf, and may try to waver Northward as a weak warm front. That will also add lift to the equation. Finally. a very strong (the strongest of the season) cold front will be coming down the pipe in the renewed NW flow aloft. All of this spells a very wet period for this forecast area on Tuesday. Rain will likely last all day, and will certainly be heavy at times with tons of moisture in place. Lifting and instability values suggest the possibility of some thunderstorms once again. However, this set up doesn't support severe weather. There could be some localized flooding issues given that this rain will be falling on top of Sunday's rain. Average QPF amounts on Tuesday should be around 2" but some locales may be in for over 3" of rain. The exact evolution of all this is still a question mark. Temperatures will also go the wrong direction on Tuesday. The exact timing of a quickly moving Arctic front will have a lot to do with that. Temperatures will be close to 50 in the morning, but as the front surges through strong CAA will ensue, and send temperatures plummeting. We will fall through the 40s on Tuesday with the rain continuing. It will become quite windy as well with a large pressure anomaly in place.
The biggest question mark of all during this forecast period continues to be around the middle of next week. It seems increasingly likely that the Tuesday system will linger into Wednesday with a period of overrunning behind the strong Arctic front. An advancing trough may hold up the upper level disturbance, and cause the cold rain to persist for a while longer. The strong CAA continues all the while Tuesday night, and temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s, into the area where things can get interesting. However, as is usually the case here in SW Louisiana I still believe at this point the rain will end before the coldest air gets here. However, due to a little more consistency from the models, I will maintain a chance of rain into Wednesday with the overrunning period continuing. The continued chance for rain will also keep us from reaching maximum cooling potential in the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame despite strong CAA over the entire forecast area. Temperatures will bottom out in the low to mid 30s for Wednesday morning with overcast skies in place. If there happens to be any precip left by Wednesday then there could be some excitement around these parts. The window of opportunity for any frozen precipitation is small at this point, and no mention of anything frozen is in the official forecast as of yet. It is prudent to await more model data to see if we can get some semblance of consistency. Models are still diverging significantly on this prospect, but the solution can't be ignored. The GFS is still clueless on the Arctic blast as well, so I will discount it at least for temperatures greatly undercutting it. However, I will not depict temperatures near as cold as its ECMWF (European) and CMC (Canadian) model show. Each model show a different degree of system for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as well. The GFS is one of the wettest solutions, while the European and Canadian are also very wet, but drier than their GFS counterpart. Confidence is high that it is going to get real cold again as we enter February. Temperatures on Wednesday won't rise all that much as a low, stratus deck will be present with the possibility of intermittent light rain and drizzle. After morning lows in the low to mid 30s, afternoon highs will only top out near 40, and the strong gusty NNW wind about 20-25 mph with higher gusts will add insult to injury creating bitterly cold wind chills in the 10s and 20s. Arctic high pressure (1050 mb.) builds in from the Great Plains Wednesday night into Thursday in the wake of the mid-week mayhem. This will set the stage for potentially pipe busting cold across the area. This looks to be the coldest air of the season. Skies clear Wednesday night, and CAA does its part. A hard freeze is on tap for Thursday morning with readings in the low to mid 20s across the Gulf Coastal realm of Louisiana and SE Texas. Sunny skies are expected on Thursday, but forget about it warming up very much at all. CAA will continue and we will struggle to get above freezing. Highs should remain at or below 40 degrees, this greatly undercuts the GFS guidance once again, and isn't as cold as the ECMWF which depicts record breaking cold. The coldest morning may come just beyond this forecast period next Friday when the potential for 10s will exist into the Lake Area as the high makes its closest approach to the forecast area. This Arctic blast will hang around into Super Bowl weekend before significant moderation occurs for the second week of February. This is all still subject to change of course, you know. Further revisions and further fine tuning will be forthcoming, and I anticipate blogging about all of this over the weekend when more clarity should exist. I don't want these two significant rain events to get lost in the shuffle. Stay tuned & you might want to start taking the proper precautions for a major freeze event as well.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 38/68 42/68 51/66 0 0 0 10 40 80
LFT 37/68 41/68 49/65 0 0 0 10 30 70
BPT 41/70 45/70 53/66 0 0 0 20 50 80
AEX 34/69 38/68 44/62 0 0 0 10 30 80
POE 34/68 39/68 45/62 0 0 0 10 30 80
ARA 38/67 41/67 52/65 0 0 0 10 30 70
Tonight...Clear. Low 38. Light West wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 68. SW wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 42. SW wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Sunny early, Increasing Cloudiness through the day. High 68. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. Low 51. South wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Cloudy with rain likely. Isolated thunderstorms are possible. Rainfall heavy at times. Rainfall amounts near an inch expected. High 66. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Friday 1/28/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 38
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 52
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 5
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 10
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 7
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 6
Drew' 7 Day Outlook
Friday
1-28-11
Low: 38
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 5-10
Saturday
1-29-11
Low: 42
High: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 10-15
Sunday
1-30-11
Low: 51
High: 66
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
1-31-11
Low: 50
High: 58
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNE 10-15
Tuesday
2-1-11
Low: 50
High: 38
Rain: 90%
Wind: NNE/NNW 20-30
W.C.: 20s/30s PM
Wednesday
2-2-11
Groundhog Day
Low: 34
High: 41
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 20-25
W.C.: 20s
Thursday
2-3-11
Low: 25
High: 39
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 15-30
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Friday Night...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday...Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet building to 3 feet after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sunday...South winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 feet. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 4:15a.m. 5:48p.m.
High: 1:01a.m. 8:55p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.30'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Low: 35
Normal Low: 42
Record Low: 16-1940
High: 65
Normal High: 61
Record High: 83-1909
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.73"
Normal Month to Date: 4.89"
Year to Date: 3.73"
Normal Year to Date: 4.89"
Record: 2.00"- 1995
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 51
High: 70
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 44
High: 69
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 52
High: 71
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 7:06a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:46p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:36a.m.-6:16p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Thursday February 3
First Quarter- Friday February 11
Full Moon- Friday February 18
Last Quarter- Thursday February 24
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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