A very complex weather situation is on tap for the foreseeable future. There is a lot of details and specifics to discuss and ingest. Therefore, I feel it is prudent to re-vamp the structure of the forecast discussion until further notice to make it easier for you to decipher everything that will be going on in the coming days. The video section will remain unchanged, and you can see it right below this text. The rest of the text block will remain unchanged as well.
Click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text block format of this blog.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...
Short term (Tonight-Friday)...Today may take the prize for being the prettiest day of the year so far. High pressure was in control in the wake of our mid-week storm. Skies were generally sunny aside from a few streaming high clouds from time to time. Temperatures were at or slightly above normal for early January. It was a coolish start to the day with readings generally in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. Afternoon highs were in the very comfortable range in the mid 60s for most. The high pressure remains in place tonight, and it will be a perfect night for radiational cooling. Expect to be several degrees cooler than that of last night. Temperatures should reach the 30s in most locations. Mid to upper 30s seem logical here along I-10, with the coldest locations reaching close to freezing. Areas of frost will be likely, but most likely not widespread. Look for the frost to form in the early morning hours just before daybreak. Clear skies will be present, but some high cloudiness may stream in from time to time especially over Northern portions of the area. Abundant sunshine is slated for Friday, and a very similar temperature regime is expected. High temperatures will reach above normal January levels with mid to upper 60s across the area. This will mark the 4th straight mild day in a row. A few thin cirrus clouds will stream over from time to time, but this should be enough to filter the sunshine. Quiet weather will continue into Friday night with just a slight increase in high clouds well in advance of the weekend storm. It will be on the chilly side once again with temperatures falling into the upper 30s by sunrise Saturday.
Saturday-Sunday...The proverbial calm before the storm comes on Saturday. Our next powerful Pacific storm will be making good headway by this time, and be crossing through the mountains of Northern Mexico. Cloudiness in advance of the potent storm will gradually increase as the day wears on. It will start out very nice with a seasonably cold January morning. There should be plenty of sunshine for the morning hours into the early portion of the afternoon, but it will become a general mix of sun and clouds by lunch time. Saturday won't be half bad, and if you have anything to do outside I recommend using Saturday to do that. Highs will reach into the lower to middle 60s. The increased cloud cover will help to knock temperatures down a few degrees. The closed cut off upper low will continue moving Eastward slowly intensifying all the while. It will be within close enough range over the Rio Grande Valley by Saturday afternoon to conjure up a few showers. Low level convergence and lifting will increase as this weather maker turns the corner. This piece of energy will help to energize the main Jet Stream and the Subtropical Jet Stream as it taps into Gulf moisture. Rain will develop and intensify and expand in areal coverage by Saturday night. Rain chances will be in the likely category overnight. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with minimums falling back into the upper 30s or so for Sunday morning. Rain is a given this weekend, but there are many uncertainties involved in this system. Surface cyclogenesis (developing low pressure) is likely to occur as the potent upper level low taps into Gulf energy. This surface low will track from West to East across the Gulf coast, but where it ultimately tracks will dictate the severity of the rainfall across the area. Certainly heavy rain is inevitable in this pattern with plenty of instability and maximum convergence in place, but the questions arise when discussing the potential for thunderstorms and severe weather, and if there will be any frozen precipitation somewhere in the state. The actual track of the surface low is still in question, but most models suggest the low will track from South Texas into the Gulf of Mexico, remaining well South of Louisiana. The models have been more and more consistent in this solution the last couple of days, and I believe that is the right idea. Of course, the low can deviate and move either just offshore or 300 miles offshore. This is still to be determined. Further fine tuning is expected, so check back.
The forecasted track of this low will certainly pull down colder air from snow covered ground to our North on Sunday. Since the low is tracking offshore, we will not have an onshore flow, and any WAA regime will be short lived as the low works slowly to the NE. Sunday will be a downright miserable weather day. It will cold, raw, wet, and windy. Don't expect temperatures to get out of the 40s, and we may not make it to 45 depending on how much CAA is ingested into this system. A strong NE wind in response to the strong low pressure in the Gulf will make it feel even colder than that with the continuous rains. Wind chill values will be in the 30s all day....brrrr! Being in the cold air, will negate any severe weather threat, but heavy rains will certainly be possible as I mentioned a moment ago. Some thunder can't be ruled out as well given the high amount of instability that will be present in the upper levels. The air at the surface will be stable thanks to cold air advection, and that will negate the severe threat. This pattern is known as overrunning or isentropic lift. This produces slantwise convection which basically means that thunderstorms form but grow horizontally instead of vertically. The cold surface air is overrun by warm air aloft. The cold air sinks to the surface layer because cold air has more density than warm air. This will be a significant rainfall event for the forecast area with average rainfall amounts between 1 and 2". There will be isolated higher amounts in excess of 3", but pinpointing where that will be is near impossible even given the best forecasting tools. Rain will be around for the balance of the day Sunday. The worst of the weather will likely come during the morning until around lunchtime when the threat for the heavier rain and isolated thunderstorms will occur. Now, if by chance the low were to track closer to the coast or even inland over the forecast area then we will have to change this forecast to include warmer temperatures in the 60s to near 70 and raise the probability of severe weather with a tornado threat possibly coming to fruition. Again, this scenario seems unlikely at this time.
The low will move East across the coastal waters creating nasty conditions offshore as well, but as it does so colder air will continue to spill into the area. Temperatures may start to fall by mid-late afternoon as the heavier rains shift Eastward. Rain will continue with plenty of backside moisture in place. The cold air with highs only in the 40s here won't pose any problems concerning frozen precip here, however, if you have travel interests into North Louisiana or into Arkansas over into portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee conditions appear to be setting up for a significant winter storm with several inches of snow possible along with significant amounts of freezing rain and sleet. Details are still in need of being ironed out with more model consistency. It is a borderline situation for the Northern half of Louisiana between just a cold rain and at least a mixture of rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow. It is with the utmost certainty that the only type of precip that will occur here on Sunday is the liquid variety...you can dispel any rumors right here, right now! Now, as the colder air filters into the region into Sunday night with the residual moisture in place there is a very minuscule possibility that portions of this forecast area perhaps as far South of I-10 may endure a bout of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. If this were to occur it would be after midnight into Monday morning as temperatures fall to or just below freezing. The chance of this occurring at this point is not even high enough to mention in the official forecast, but I will be watching this situation closely. More often than not in South Louisiana, the majority of the time one of two things happens...either the precip ends before the coldest air gets here, or it warms up just enough before it gets here to keep it all liquid. Again, this will be monitored in the days ahead, and I will have regular blog posts on Friday and the weekend to give you all the latest. The chances for rain begin dwindling in the Sunday night period as the storm system pulls away, but with ample amounts of moisture in place and a saturated boundary layer rain chances do remain in the forecast. Temperatures will bottom out in the low to mid 30s across the forecast area.
Monday-Thursday & the Extended...Cold is the word. How cold remains the question. I have hinted at this all week, and that remains unchanged. Models historically have a hard time dealing with big time Arctic outbreaks, and that could very well be the case this time around as well. It is still a bit early to know exactly how cold it will get, but studying the behavioral pattern of the traveling Arctic air mass over the weekend will be a big deterministic factor when it comes to figuring out how cold we will get here along the Gulf Coast. It still has the potential to be a record breaker, but that seems less likely at this juncture. It is a given that we will experience a prolonged period of below normal temperatures. Enjoy the near 70 degree weather on Friday, because it will a while before we talk about 70 degrees again even if we don't get a direct transport. Monday morning will be cold even ahead of the leading edge of this Arctic air mass. The prospects of lingering light rain or drizzle are present as well. Given the temperatures near freezing, the small chance for some minor icing is there, but again there will be actual mention of any freezing drizzle or light freezing rain at this time. Clouds will hang around on Monday, with only some partial clearing as we await the Arctic front. Winds will remain strong as well. The Arctic front will race through the forecast area in a matter of just a couple hours Monday afternoon, and be into the coastal waters by Monday evening. Strong CAA will take over. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 40s at best ahead of the boundary with falling temperatures expected in its wake. No additional rainfall is expected as the strong front moves into the Gulf. Unseasonably cold weather, but dry conditions are in store for Tuesday through Thursday with sub-freezing temperatures in the 20s each morning. Afternoon highs will struggle to make the 40s, and may stay in the 30s in many areas Wednesday and Thursday. It will be a pattern that I will term progressively colder as we remain under the influence of a NW flow aloft. Periodic disturbances embedded in the Polar Jet will send some cloud cover across the area keeping us with a mix of sun and clouds each day. The timing of when clouds will be present will have an impact on the temperature forecast. A dry forecast is maintained after Monday morning through the rest of the period. Models favor a colder than normal pattern beyond the middle of the month, but do show a warm up relatively speaking at end of next week with a return flow developing ahead of another potent Arctic front arriving next weekend (15-16 January). Models often erode Arctic air masses too quickly, and it is too early to tell if that will happen this go around. Models hint that the previously mentioned severe Arctic cold may not plunge Southward into the U.S. until next weekend around Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. All of this is speculation, as is the prospects of whether or not there will be any winter weather mischief while we are in the colder pattern. There is no reason to iron out specific details at this point since this is beyond the scope of this forecast period.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 37/68 38/60 40/45 0 0 0 10 60 100
LFT 38/67 38/61 41/46 0 0 0 10 60 100
BPT 40/70 42/59 42/47 0 0 0 20 70 100
AEX 33/66 35/55 37/42 0 0 0 10 60 100
POE 33/66 35/56 37/42 0 0 0 10 60 100
ARA 39/68 40/61 41/48 0 0 0 10 60 100
Tonight...Clear w/ Patchy Frost. Low 37. Calm wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 68. West wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 38. Light NW wind.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny, becoming Partly Cloudy . High 60. North wind 10 mph.
Saturday Night...Cloudy with rain developing & becoming likely by midnight. Low 40. NNE wind 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday...Cloudy, Windy, & Cold w/ Rain Likely. Isolated thunderstorms possible especially in the morning through early afternoon. Rain heavy at times. High 45. NNE wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%. Wind chills in the 30s.
Friday 1/7/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear w/ Patchy Frost
Temp: 37
Rain: 0%
Wind: Calm
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 9
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: WNW 10
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 6
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 47
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
1-7-11
Low: 37
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 10
Saturday
1-8-10
Low: 38
High: 60
Rain: 10%...60% Night
Wind: N 10
Sunday
1-9-11
Low: 40
High: 45
Rain: 100%
Wind: NNE 15-25
W.C.: 30s
Monday
1-10-11
High: 44
Rain: 30%
Tuesday
1-11-11
Low: 28
High: 43
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 15-30
Wednesday
1-12-11
14 Year Anniversary of Ice Storm '97
High: 41
Rain: 10%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 15-30
Thursday
1-13-11
14 Year Anniversary of Ice Storm '97
Low: 29
High: 38
Rain: 10%
Wind: NNW 20-30
W.C.: 15-25
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain.
Saturday Night...East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Sunday...Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:10a.m. 11:11p.m.
High: 2:47a.m. 5:54p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.69'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Low: 41
Normal Low: 41
Record Low: 19-1924
High: 67
Normal High: 61
Record High: 87-1913
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.85"
Normal Month to Date: 1.06"
Year to Date: 1.85"
Normal Year to Date: 1.06"
Record: 3.31"- 1998
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 28
High: 52
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 35
High: 60
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 33
High: 68
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:10a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:28p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:40a.m.-5:58p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Wednesday January 12
Full Moon- Wednesday January 19
Last Quarter- Wednesday January 26
New Moon- Thursday February 3
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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