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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Thanksgiving week 2010 is here. The weather will be rather topsy-turvy for the foreseeable future as well. It was a decent weekend across the area. It was dry despite a noticeable increase in low level humidity. Late night and early morning fog was an issue both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Once the fog dissipated, it turned out quite nice with plenty of sunshine and limited clouds on Saturday. A transition to a Partly Cloudy day was the name of the game on Sunday. Temperatures underwent quite a uptick as well. It was chilly at the end of the work week on Friday with highs only in the 50s thanks (or no thanks) to the pesky, low cloud deck which refused to burn off. The nice sunshine this weekend resulted in highs reaching the mid 70s on Saturday, and a balmy 80 on Sunday. These readings near 80 were some 10-12 degrees above the seasonal norm, but certainly not a record. Morning lows also responded to the influx of low level moisture. After needing jackets with temperatures in the 40s each of the past two mornings, lows rose into the low to mid 60s for Sunday morning. To see a pattern like this in late November as we approach Thanksgiving is nothing new. It seems like we always have a warm spell leading up to Turkey Day. These trend of above normal weather will carry over into the abbreviated work week. A similar atmospheric profile exists this morning, and it remains very mild across the entire forecast area. Temperatures are in the 60s for most areas this morning with some 50s showing up in cooler locations. Ample amounts of low-level moisture remain in place, and the idea of late night/early morning fog is logical once again. However, I don't believe it will be as significant as it was on Sunday morning due to continued mixing created by the onshore flow. Winds are strong enough to keep the atmosphere mixed up just enough. If it's not foggy where you are, then a low cloud deck will likely be present as you head out the door.
Other than the fog, this holiday week is off to a dry start. This will change down the road, but it is slowly evolving process. Our next storm system is on the map. A sharpening trough, attendant cold front, and intensifying surface low are situated off to our North. These features are active, and are shifting closer to the region. As this occurs, the onshore flow will persist, and the unseasonably warm weather will as well. The pressure gradient will tighten over the area. The strong cold front with Arctic teleconnections will be in transit, but will be temporarily stall out to our North from the Red River Valley into the Mid West. This will occur because of the blocking high pressure situated over the SE U.S., and the dominant W to E flow across the Southern U.S., which means the front is running parallel to the dominant flow, and this is not supportive of much of a Southerly motion at this time. Boundary layer moisture will remain high today, and the warm and humid conditions will prevail. With the trigger mechanism still located well away from the forecast area, and the lack of any lift or instability it will remain dry for one more day. Capping in the mid and upper levels will keep any shower or thunderstorm activity sequestered for one more day. Afternoon highs will top out around the 80 degree mark once again.
Fog should not be as much of an issue heading into Tuesday morning due to increased mixing ahead of the advancing trough. However, rain chances enter the equation at that time. Moisture levels continue to increase in the boundary layer, and a weaker cap will be in place. An impulse emanating out ahead of said cold front will create just enough lift across the area for some scattered shower and/or thunderstorm activity across the area. Chances will be slight as much of the cap will remain in place, and the lack of dynamics will preclude any significant development as well. Essentially, it will be air mass or streamer showers that develop and feed into the main part of the upcoming system. Temperatures will remain on the warm side for late November with lows into the 60 once again, while highs top out in the upper 70s on average. A significant rain event is not anticipated for Tuesday. Some patchy fog and/or early morning low clouds can't be ruled out, but again increased mixing should limit the severity of the fog potential. Wednesday is a very important travel day for many. The weather across our region looks subpar. The front will remain locked up to our North for another day or so, but the chance for showers and storms will increase slightly to atone for the shrinking cap. A strong Southerly flow will remain entrenched across the area as well. If you remember last time, I mentioned that it looked like the front would cross the area Wednesday. However, now all the models are consistently slower with said frontal passage. This is reflected in this forecast, more on that in a minute. For one of the busiest travel days of the year, the chances of showers and thunderstorms exist mainly for the afternoon hours as daytime heating allows for air mass convection to develop. The Southerly flow will increase with winds over 20 mph at times as the pressure gradient continues to strengthen over the area. It won't feel like Thanksgiving Eve as the warm conditions continue, and you might want to wear shorts and have the A/C humming in the car as you head over the river and through the woods. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s to around 80 for highs once again after morning lows in the low to mid 60s one more time. Rain chances remain in the chance category for Wednesday night as we await the nice front.
The warmth continues into Thanksgiving Day as it stands right now. It looks like we might be in shorts this Thanksgiving (at least on Turkey Day itself). The temporarily stalled front will finally begin its travels towards the Gulf Coast once again as it receives a boot from an additional kink in the Jet Stream. The front will move steadily Southward through the area during the day on Thanksgiving, and will gradually increase rain chances as moisture pools over the area ahead of the front. The cap in the mid and upper levels will continue its erosion process. The best lift and dynamics will bypass this forecast area, and be situated closer to the advancing surface low off to our North. That being said, this set up doesn't favor a widespread rain event, and only scattered convection is expected ahead of the front. The mean flow across the Gulf Coast will be out of the SW, and this is not conducive for a significant rain event ahead of the front with the warm air at the surface and in the upper levels. One more mild day is in store as WAA continues ahead of the front. Morning lows will be around 60, while afternoon highs will be a bit cooler with the enhanced rain chances. Expect maximums to reach the mid 70s or so. The exact timing of the front is still in question, but right now it seems to be an afternoon/evening proposition. It will enter the forecast area from the NW around lunch time on Turkey Day, and slide through the forecast area into the coastal waters overnight. The scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be prevalent ahead of the front, but no severe weather is expected. Once frontal passage occurs, it will turn sharply colder and strong CAA will be in place. However, the front itself will be quite shallow, thus allowing creating colder air at the surface. The boundary layer will remain quite moist, and a layer of warm air will be trapped above the surface as the SW flow continues aloft for a time. Moisture will overrun the cool surface air. Temperatures will be much cooler as many of you head out the door to begin Christmas shopping on Friday morning. Morning lows will be in the mid to upper 40s across the forecast area, but a strong Northerly wind will make it feel like it's in the 35-40 degree range.
This overrunning means that clouds and rain chances will remain a staple in the forecast for a duration from Thanksgiving Night into Friday. The upper level (850 mb.) trough will hang back for a while as the colder Arctic air mass infiltrates the region. Remember, that colder air is denser than warm air, that is the first key to understanding the process of isentropic lift. This overrunning will result in the highest rain chances coming in the wake of the front in the same Thursday Night-Friday period. This appears to be the most likely time frame for some much needed widespread rainfall, but it should mostly be a light to occasionally moderate basis. A small diurnal range is on tap for Friday with continued CAA and the ongoing overrunning in place. High temperatures will struggle to get above 55 degrees. So, now you see the trend will be straight from above normal to below normal. Conditions will improve as the day wears on Friday. The associated trough will continue to dig over the area, and drying and cooling in all levels of the atmosphere will finally take over. Rain chances will come to an end likely before noon as moisture evacuates from the boundary layer. Clouds may linger into Friday Night, but high pressure will be building in all the while. It will certainly feel like the holidays by this time. This cold front will usher in the coldest air so far this season.
The latter half of Thanksgiving weekend 2010 looks beautiful. It will be on the chilly side with the modified Arctic air in place across the Gulf Coastal Plain. While we may not receive the brunt of this air mass, certainly the Eastern 2/3 of the nation will be quite cold for Thanksgiving 2010. The building high pressure will result in beautiful clear skies beginning late Friday and lasting through Sunday. CAA will continue into Saturday, and this will bring temperatures down into the 30s area wide for the Friday Night/Saturday Morning period. Some of the coldest locations could even experience some 20s for the first time all season. It is conceivable that the first freeze of the season will occur here in the Lake Area, but this remains to be seen depending on exactly how much of the discharging Arctic air is directed into SW Louisiana. Freeze or not, it will definitely be in the frost category, and be downright cold. Certainly, much of the forecast area will experience freezing conditions first thing Saturday. CAA will cease during the day Saturday as the strong Canadian high pressure settles into Texas. After the cold start, temperatures will remain on the chilly side through the day with highs falling some degrees short of 60. Mid to upper 50s should suffice. It will be even cooler than that if you are heading up to Little Rock for the big LSU-Arkansas game. That is a 2:30 kickoff, and skies will be sunny, but temperatures will only be in the mid 50s at warmest. It will easily fall into the 40s before the game is over. Lows will be in the 20s there both Friday and Saturday Night. Just keep that in mind if you are making a weekend of it. Rounding out the forecast period on Sunday, another cold start is in store with high pressure anchored over the Gulf Coast. Frosty conditions should exist once again with clear skies. Sunday should be a beautiful day, and air mass modification is expected as high creep back into the 60s once again. Air mass modification continues beyond the forecast period as we close out the month of November.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 61/80 62/79 63/78 0 10 10 20 20 30
LFT 61/81 63/80 62/79 0 10 10 20 20 30
BPT 63/80 64/80 64/78 0 10 10 20 20 30
AEX 57/79 61/77 58/78 0 10 10 20 20 30
POE 57/79 61/77 59/78 0 10 10 20 20 30
ARA 62/80 63/78 64/77 0 10 10 20 20 30
Today...Early Morning Fog and/or Low Clouds otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy. High 80. SSE wind 10-15.
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with some Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 62. SSE wind 10 mph.
Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 79. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 63. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy, Warm, & Windy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 78. South wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Monday 11/22/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Fog
Temp: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 6
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 76
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 80
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 75
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 13
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 72
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
11-22-10
Low: 61
High: 80
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
11-23-10
Low: 62
High: 79
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
11-24-10
Low: 63
High: 78
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Thursday
11-24-10
Thanksgiving
Low: 61
High: 75
Rain: 40% Day...60% Night
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
Friday
11-26-10
Low: 47
High: 53
Rain: 30% AM
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 35-45
Saturday
11-27-10
Low: 32
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
W.C.: 25-30 A.M.
Sunday
11-28-10
Low: 36
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 35-45 A.M.
...Tropical Update...
The tropics are, and shall remain quiet for the foreseeable future. No tropical cyclone formation is expected through Wednesday. The season is winding down, and officially draws to a close on November 30, next Tuesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog early in the morning.
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
......Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 8:35a.m. 8:56p.m.
High: 12:23a.m. 4:37p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.99'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Low: 64
Normal Low: 48
Record Low: 29-1937
High: 80
Normal High: 68
Record High: 89-1896
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.22"
Normal Month to Date: 3.19"
Year to Date: 31.47"
Normal Year to Date: 51.17"
Record: 2.10"- 1934
Sensible Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 52
High: 57
Rain: 1.61"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 41
High: 63
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 34
High: 56
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Monday: 6:44a.m.
Sunset Monday: 5:14p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:14a.m.-5:44p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Sunday November 21
Last Quarter- Sunday November 28
New Moon- Sunday December 5
First Quarter- Monday December 13
Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
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