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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It doesn't feel like Thanksgiving at all, and it may be hard for some of you to get into the holiday spirit when we're decked out in T-Shirts and shorts. That was certainly the case on Monday, and will continue to be so in the near term. A stagnant pattern of unseasonably warm and humid weather has enveloped the Gulf Coastal Plain. Meanwhile, a potent storm system is unraveling further off to our North. We will have to wait a couple more days before we deal with the latest cold front. The unseasonable warmth and very humid conditions will prevail through Thanksgiving. All is calm across the area early this Tuesday morning with plenty of low clouds and some patchy fog dotting the landscape. The fog is not nearly as much of an issue as it was in preceding days, thanks to increased mixing in the atmosphere. A stiff Southerly flow is prevalent across our part of the world in advance of the storm system. A large area of high pressure off to our East will serve as a blocking mechanism to the latest cold front, and prevent it from sliding into this forecast area for other couple days. It will slide SE towards the Red River Valley today. It is a rather potent front, and it sparked off a severe weather episode on Monday across the Mid West and portions of the Ozarks. The deep tropical air mass will continue to be pumped into the forecast area as the front stalls out to our North. Rain chances will return to the forecast today as a weak impulse in advance of the front creates some lift in the atmosphere. However, activity will be scattered in nature, and a widespread rain event is out of the question. It will mostly be streamer showers that developed and move Northward towards the main dynamics over the Mid West. Temperatures this morning are in the mid 60s, and we will warm up close to 80 once again today. Skies will generally be Partly to Mostly Cloudy after any fog dissipates this morning. The stiff onshore flow will continue as well with gusts over 20 mph at times.
The slight chance for showers will exist into the overnight hours as the deep influx of moisture continues over the area, and the weak pre-frontal impulse moves on by. Mostly a continuation of the warm and humid conditions will take us into Wednesday as well. Overnight lows will be well into the 60s once again, far above the benchmark for late November. Fog should not be a problem as surface winds keep the atmosphere mixed up. Generally Mostly Cloudy skies will prevail. For Wednesday, an all important travel day for Thanksgiving, weather conditions will be all right. The strong cold front will remain locked up to our North, and the absence of any dynamics over the area, plus upper level capping will limit any chance for rain across this forecast area. With the deep moisture in place, certainly one or two showers/storms could emerge during peak heating hours, but all in all it should be a dry day just warm and humid with highs up around 80 once again. A sharpening trough to our NW will be digging and amplifying in the Wednesday Night time frame, and the attendant cold front will begin its transport SE once again. The warm and moist air mass will remain in place into Thanksgiving with generally Mostly Cloudy skies and temperatures in the low to mid 60s once again. Turkey Day itself should generally start off dry as the atmosphere remains largely capped in advance of the front. The cold front will slowly trek SE into this forecast area during the day Thanksgiving. It should enter the forecast area near the Lakes Region of SE Texas over into Central Louisiana shortly after noon, and then make a steady progression through the remainder of the forecast area into Thursday Night. Moisture will pool as the front makes its advance into the area, and rain chances will ramp up as the front moves our way. The best dynamics and lift will bypass this part of the world, and a widespread thunderstorm event is not expected ahead of the front. The forecast area will remain null and void of any severe weather threat as well. The favorable set up is for scattered activity at best ahead of the front, and that is reflected in the forecast for Thanksgiving Day. It will be warm and humid as you gather with your family and friends on this all important holiday. It will be warm and humid and perhaps a bit rainy about mid-afternoon and into the evening as the Saints play the Cowboys in Dallas. However, it'll be quite cool in Dallas as they should be behind the front at that time. Temperatures will be in the 50s falling into the 40s during the game, so keep that in mind if you are heading to the game. The string of unseasonable warmth will continue through the day with highs reaching the upper 70s to around 80 for one more day. The Southerly flow will continue to intensify with an increasing pressure gradient.
This changes behind the front. A better chance of rain and some thunder will exist in the wake of the boundary beginning Thursday Night into Friday Morning. The cold air will be shallow initially thanks to a continued SW flow aloft behind the front. A stream of warm, moist air will be transported up and over the colder air filtering in at the surface. This spells a period of overrunning for the forecast area, and that translates into an opportunity for some widespread rain. Rain chances will certainly be in the likely category for Thanksgiving Night into the early portion of the day on Friday. Some thunder will be possible with elevated convection likely, but no severe weather is anticipated with the cool, stable air mass at the surface. The cold air filtering into the region via strong CAA at this time with have some Arctic influences. Temperatures will fall off significantly from near 80 on Thanksgiving afternoon to the low to mid 40s by Friday Morning. Rainfall totals could be as much as an inch or so across the area, and this will be very welcomed. This will be a brief period of overrunning as boundary layer moisture will decrease with cooler air finally beginning to filter in in the upper levels heading into Friday Morning. High pressure will become the dominant weather feature for the remainder of the holiday weekend. A chance for showers will linger into Friday Morning, and it will be on the chilly side. Make a note of that if you plan on heading out for some Christmas shopping. Temperatures will start off in the low to mid 40s with wind chills down in the 30s with some gusty winds out of the North. Conditions will improve through the day Friday with all rain ceasing to exist by midday. Skies should spend the rest of the day clearing with the big Canadian high pressure building in. CAA will continue, and it will remain chilly. Maybe you'll want a gumbo with the chilly conditions in place. This will certainly be the coldest air of the season thus far. Expect afternoon highs to only reach the mid 50s at best. This will mean that we will trend below normal now after several days of above normalcy.
Once we get past the rainy period on Thanksgiving Night, the remainder of the holiday weekend will be great. High pressure will be firmly gripped across the Gulf South as we head into Saturday. Prime radiative cooling conditions are slated for Friday Night and Saturday morning with clear skies, and light Northerly winds with the high centered over Texas. The coldest night of the season is on tap. Morning lows will easily fall below the freezing mark North of the I-10 corridor, with lows at or just above freezing here along I-10. All of us will certainly be cold, and nearly everyone will experience 30s. The lone exception may be the immediate coastline where it may stay in the lower 40s. The coldest locations will bottom out in the upper 20s, meaning a fairly significant freeze will occur. Exactly how cold it will be by Saturday morning remains to be seen as models diverge on the degree of cold air that will infiltrate the region, however, I believe models may be a bit warm as they often underestimate cold air even if there is a lack of a snowpack. Certainly, the air mass will modify as the cold air is transported towards the Gulf of Mexico. A sunny, beautiful weekend is on tap, but it will be cool on Saturday. After the cold start, expect highs to only reach the mid to upper 50s at best. CAA will cease during the day. LSU plays rival Arkansas Saturday afternoon in Little Rock, and if you are heading up for the game expect it to be beautiful but chilly as well. Temperatures will generally be in the low 50s in the first half, with readings falling into the 40s in the second half as darkness falls on the Ozarks. The controlling high will slowly transpire Eastward into Sunday, and it not forecasted to be quite as cold Sunday morning. Lows should still be in the 30s, however. Sunny skies are expected once again Sunday, and air mass modification will ensue by Sunday afternoon as the large high slides East of the Mississippi River resulting in a subtle return flow over the area. Maximums should creep back into the 60s with ease. Moisture increases more significantly Sunday Night into Monday with the high pushing further Eastward, and another storm system developing downstream. A fog issue may arise for Monday morning, but that remains to be seen at this juncture. Certainly, it will be warmer with an increase in clouds noted. Temperatures will moderate significantly with lows in the low to mid 50s. Highs will jump back into the 70s as well. A slight rain chance may enter the discussion be late in the day as the next storm system and associated cold front moves into range. Mild and dry weather looks to take us into the first few days of December.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 64/80 65/81 65/78 0 20 20 10 10 30
LFT 63/81 64/81 65/80 0 20 20 10 10 30
BPT 65/81 66/82 65/79 0 20 20 10 10 30
AEX 63/82 64/81 65/75 0 20 20 10 10 40
POE 63/81 64/81 65/76 0 20 20 10 10 40
ARA 65/79 66/79 66/78 0 20 20 10 10 30
Today...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Unseasonably Warm & Humid. High 80. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 65. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy & Windy. Continued Unseasonably Warm. High 81. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 65. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thanksgiving Day...Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 78. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming SSW in the afternoon.
Tuesday 11/23/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 72
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 77
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ some Scattered Showers/Storms
Temp: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
11-23-10
Low: 64
High: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
11-24-10
Low: 65
High: 81
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
11-25-10
Thanksgiving
Low: 65
High: 78
Rain: 30%...70% Night
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20
Friday
11-26-10
Low: 44
High: 53
Rain: 30% AM
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 35-45
Saturday
11-27-10
Low: 34
High: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 30-40 A.M.
Sunday
11-28-10
Low: 38
High: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
W.C.: 35-40 A.M.
Monday
11-29-10
Low: 53
High: 71
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Tropical Update...
The tropics are quiet as the season winds down. It comes to an official end one week from today.
...Marine Forecast...
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of rain and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 9:13a.m. 9:30p.m.
High: 12:47a.m. 5:29p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.08'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, November 22, 2010
Low: 64
Normal Low: 48
Record Low: 29-1898
High: 80
Normal High: 69
Record High: 89-1897
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.22"
Normal Month to Date: 3.35"
Year to Date: 31.47"
Normal Year to Date: 51.33"
Record: 3.11"- 1979
Sensible Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 49
High: 61
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 38
High: 72
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 32
High: 62
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:45a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:14p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:15a.m.-5:44p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Sunday November 28
New Moon- Sunday December 5
First Quarter- Monday December 13
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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