Click below for today's edition of the video blog, and be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The string of Nice November weather remained in tact Monday. High pressure has been the dominant weather feature since the end of last week. It was another very chilly start Monday with readings from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. It was a comfortable and beautiful afternoon with highs reaching the lower end of the 70s for most. Humidity values increased a smidgeon as the controlling high shifted Eastward allowing winds to kick around to a Southerly component. It was the 5th straight day without any type of cloud cover. The high is anchored to our East, but it continues to ridge Westward into our region. A very light return flow is in place across the forecast area. As a result of this, temperatures will be a bit warmer as we start the day today. The clear skies will remain, and you might still want to have a light jacket or sweater as you head out the door this morning. Temperatures will start out in the mid to upper 40s with some lower 40s possible in the coldest locations. Some areas of patchy fog can't be ruled out first thing this morning, but this should be a major issue with boundary layer moisture being the only issue. The large anti-cyclone will continue to move Eastward during the day today, and the onshore flow will become more pronounced. It will still be a very nice day with generally Mostly Sunny skies expected. Some cumulus clouds will be possible this afternoon as low-level moisture increases. After the chilly start this morning, we'll warm up into the 70s with ease. The increasing low-level moisture will result in an increase in humidity as well. Quiet weather will continue tonight with Mostly Clear skies expected along with the possibility of patchy fog heading into Wednesday morning. Overnight lows tonight will be much warmer with readings in the mid 50s or so. This will trend temperatures back to above normal as opposed to below normal over the last several days.
If you remember from yesterday's discussion, I told you there was some model deficiencies as far as the timing of the cold front was concerned. This remains unchanged. There is a different solution with respect to the front this forecast period. It still appears as though the best chance for rain this forecast period will come with the frontal passage on Saturday. The front looks to cross the area sometime between 12Z and 18Z (6a.m.-Noon) This should bring about the best chance for showers and thunderstorms across this part of the world. Models still indicate the best instability and main thrust of the dynamics to bypass our region to the North closer to the base of the trough. There will be the potential for a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop overnight Friday into Saturday ahead of the front, with the tendency for this line (MCS) to push ESE into the forecast area during the morning hours Saturday bringing another welcome shot of rain. Mild temperatures are on tap for one more day as WAA continues until fropa. Morning lows in the 60s should be quite common, and afternoon highs will sneak into the 70s, before CAA takes over in the wake of said frontal boundary. The biggest question perhaps comes from the post-frontal weather. Last time we spoke, model suggested a rapid clearing behind the front setting up a marvelous second half of the weekend. Now, confidence in this solution is decreasing. Some of the models suggest the front will be slowing down as it moves through the forecast area Saturday, and eventually stalling out just East of our forecast area into our coastal waters. Should this occur, then clouds and the chance for rain would stay with us through the remainder of the forecast period...more on that in a moment! First, let's digress for just a minute to talk football...McNeese plays their final home game of 2010 against conference foe Texas State, and while the weather will be turning cooler, again I can't promise that it will be rain-free at this juncture. Skies should be Mostly Cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. It will breezy from the North in the 15 mph range, and temperatures will generally be in the 50s during the game. Down the road a piece in Baton Rouge, a higher chance for rain exists since they will be closer to the frontal boundary at game time (both games start at 7). It's homecoming and it could be wet depending on how things transpire. Temperatures will be cooling into the 60s at game time, and winds will shift from South to North as the front moves through. We will look at this again tomorrow! I wouldn't cancel plans to attend the games just yet.
I think it is cut and dry that the boundary will move into and through the area Saturday now, but how will the post-frontal weather evolve? That is the main question for the latter portion of the forecast period. There is enough consistency from the models today to suggest an unsettled pattern in the post-frontal environment. It looks like it may turn out to be an overrunning or isentropic lift situation. Cooler air will be filtering into the area at the surface thanks to the post-frontal surface winds, but up above in the mid and upper levels between 850 and 500 mb. winds will remain with a Southerly component due to the shallow nature of the cool surface air. The stalling front will keep very moist air in place in the mid and upper levels, and the end result will be a continuation of clouds and the chance for showers periodically for Sunday. Certainly, drier air will work in to some degree to lower the rain chances even if it is temporary from Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but clouds will likely hang tough. There is still the possibility that the front gets the extra kick it needs to keep on moving, and we will salvage the second half of the week with a beautiful fall day on Sunday. I will keep it unsettled for now though giving the consistencies over the past few model runs. Temperatures will certainly be cooler. Lows will be back into the 40s on Sunday morning, and highs will generally be in the low to mid 60s, back to below normal for mid-November. In this scenario, it may take a secondary, and stronger cold front to push away all the clouds and showers. This looks to play out at the end of the forecast period. A more significant rain event may set up for Monday and Tuesday of next week with some sort of surface reflection developing in the Gulf along the old front. This could pose the possibility of an extended wet period for a drought stricken area. We could also remain in the cool sector, this negating any shot at severe weather. However, any wavering Northward of the old front would likely increase the prospects of severe weather over the area. This system could generate substantial lift and instability, therefore thunderstorms are possible. It remains to be seen. Either way, rain chances are increased for Monday, but temperatures remain on the cool side with lows generally in the 40s and highs in the 60s. Much cooler and drier air will follow the secondary system into the region for the middle of next week. This could be the coolest weather of the season thus far. This is still beyond the scope of this forecast period, so it remains to be seen, and I won't get too adamant about this idea just yet.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 48/74 56/77 59/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 47/74 55/77 58/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 50/75 57/78 60/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 43/74 51/78 54/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 43/74 51/78 54/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 47/73 55/76 59/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tuesday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 74. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Warmer with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 56. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 77. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night..Mostly Clear with some Patchy Fog. Low 59. SE wind 5 mph.
Veteran's Day...Partly Cloudy. High 78. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday 11/9/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 6
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 4
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday 11/9/10
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Wednesday
11-10-10
Low: 56
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
11-11-10
Veteran's Day
Low: 59
High: 78
Rain 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
11-12-10
Low: 61
High: 78
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
11-13-10
High: 73
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
Sunday
11-14-10
Low: 47
High: 63
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Monday
11-15-10
Low: 45
High: 63
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNE 15-20
...Tropical Update...
All is quiet in the tropics after the demise of Tomas on Sunday. No tropical storm formation is expected through Wednesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:19a.m. 11:13p.m.
High: 2:11a.m. 7:31p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.04'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, November 8, 2010
Low: 42
Normal Low: 52
Record Low: 30-1913
High: 71
Normal High: 73
Record High: 89-1906
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.35"
Normal Month to Date: 1.14"
Year to Date: 30.60"
Normal Year to Date: 49.12"
Record: 3.14"- 1944
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 62
High: 74
Rain: Trace
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 63
High: 83
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 50
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:33a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:20p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:03a.m.-5:50p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Saturday November 13
Full Moon- Sunday November 21
Last Quarter- Sunday November 28
New Moon- Sunday December 5
Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment