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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The timing of our latest cold front couldn't be better with respect to the upcoming weekend. All signs point to another nice November weekend, getting us back on track after the less than stellar one we had last weekend. We've made it to the end of the week, and we are in a benign pattern at present. CAA is ongoing tonight in the wake of last night's cold front. It was a sunny day for the most part on Thursday depending on where you were within the realm of our forecast area. A stratocumulus deck was present across a good portion of our state in the wake of last night's cold front. Areas North of I-10 were shielded by clouds much of the day, while the cloud deck slowly nudged Southward towards the coast. These low clouds associated with a temperature inversion in the boundary layer remain in place tonight. However, as high pressure over Texas slowly transpires Eastward, these low clouds will erode. These low clouds could play tricks with the forecasted low temperatures for tonight. Remember, the clouds help keep the temperatures up at night (acting as a blanket). Areas that are clear at this time, should stay clear, but areas experiencing said cloud cover should slowly become clear through the night. The cloud deck had reached as far as I-10 as of the evening hours. Regardless of cloud cover, it will be a cool night with CAA continuing. Low temperatures should bottom out in the lower 40s provided that the cloud cover erodes as expected. Should the clouds hang tough a bit longer, than the minimum temperatures will be several degrees warmer likely in the mid 40s or so. A continued NW aloft and at the surface will continue into Friday in the wake of said cold front.
A fantastic Friday is promised. High pressure from Texas will be in firm control over Sportsman's Paradise. Expect any lingering low clouds to dissipate quickly once the sun comes up. It will be a cool (some will call it cold) start to the day with the aforementioned lower to middle 40s and a North breeze on the order of 10 mph. Sunny skies are expected for the duration of the day, and the humidity values will be pleasantly low as well with the dry air in place. High temperatures will fall short of normal. Normalcy is around 70 for this point in November, but we will remain in the mid to upper 60s at best across the forecast area. The pleasant afternoon will transition into a quiet evening for the second round of the High School Football playoffs. Most of our area teams are playing on the road including Barbe and St. Louis. It will be clear and coolish for all games. It will be quite as cool overnight as it will tonight thanks to the commencement of a Southerly flow once again. This subtle onshore flow will slowly begin to increase dew points, and as a result low temperatures will be several degrees warmer than that of tonight. Temperatures during the football games will generally be around 60 at kickoff with readings dropping into the 50s during the games, here locally. While, points further North and East will be some degrees cooler with some lower 50s possible before game's end. Skies will be clear throughout the state, and wind won't be much of a factor. These readings during the evening will translate into the upper 40s to around 50 by sunrise Saturday morning. Some patchy fog can't be ruled out towards sunrise, but it shouldn't be a major issue for our Saturday.
The pre-Thanksgiving weekend shall be a fairly nice one. Mostly Sunny skies are anticipated for Saturday while Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies should unfold for Sunday. Moisture in the lower levels and the boundary layer will slowly increase thanks to the circulation around the departing anti-cyclone. The return flow will gradually become more pronounced allowing for more humid air to return to the forecast area by the latter half of the weekend. Temperatures will moderate as well. After a seasonably cool start to the day on Saturday, it will be a very nice and comfortable day for anything outdoors including football of course. Temperatures will reach back into the lower 70s, at or just above normal for this time of year. LSU plays Ole Miss at home at 2:30p.m. Saturday afternoon on CBS. It will be nice football weather in Tiger Stadium with sunny skies and a temperature around 73 at kickoff, with temperatures generally in the lower 70s throughout the game until the 4th quarter when it should fall into the upper 60s. As for McNeese, the Cowboys are on the road for their final game of the 2010-11 regular season. They will be taking on Central Arkansas in Conway in a game with major playoff implications for the Cowboys. This game kickoffs at 3p.m., and should be played under full sunshine as well. Temperatures will be in the comfortable range in the mid to upper 60s...67 is the official high for Conway, AR Saturday. It will fall into the 50s in the second half as darkness falls over Central Arkansas. Fog will likely be a more common entity Saturday night into Sunday with a more pronounced Southerly flow in place with ample amounts of low level moisture in place. Skies should generally be clear, and areas of fog could form in the overnight hours. Temperatures will be above the norm for mid-late November with readings generally in the mid 50s for Sunday morning. Any fog dissipates in the post-dawn hours by mid-morning. Skies will generally be Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy Sunday and the November warming trend will continue in earnest. Highs will reach the upper 70s, but it should still be dry for any outdoor plans you may have after church. It will not feel as comfortable since the humidity will be back in full force, but it should certainly be dry. The Saints resume their season Sunday afternoon at 3:15p.m. with a game in the Superdome against the Seattle Seahawks. No weather worries for this game of course since it's in the comfort of the Dome, however, if you are driving to New Orleans for the game, it will be quite nice. Fog could be an issue once again Sunday night with the long fetch Southerly flow continuing to pump in low-level moisture across the area. The mild temperature regime will remain in tact as well. It will feel very much like Thanksgiving week at all with morning low temperatures generally running in the mid to upper 50s for most.
The prolonged period of above normal temperatures and high humidity will carry into Thanksgiving week. Boundary layer moisture continues to increase Monday, and a largely capped atmosphere will remain in place. However, the next storm system to affect the region will be taking shape out West this weekend, and will slowly migrate Eastward next week. As the trough deepens, Jet Stream energy will increase, and short waves (disturbances) will emanate out ahead of the advancing trough and attendant cold front. These short waves will cause additional Gulf moisture to pool over the area. The end result will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday. Streamer showers feeding into the main thrust of the system further North will be possible, however, activity will be sparsely populated at least initially due to continued capping in the mid and upper levels. It will be unseasonably warm and windy Monday. The pressure differences between the intensifying storm system downstream, and the evacuating high pressure will create a higher mixing potential. High temperatures will approach the 80 degree threshold. Moisture continues to pool on Tuesday as the strong storm system moves closer to the forecast area. The cap will slowly erode in the mid and upper levels, and rain chances will increase slightly with the continued possibility of streamer showers and added lift generated by the emanating short waves. The stretch of unseasonable warmth will continue with lows climbing into the lower 60s while highs remain in the upper 70s. Fog will continue to be possibility for the late night/early morning hours all the while. Expect Mostly Cloudy skies with some Partly Cloudy intervals both Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday is often dubbed the busiest travel day of the entire year, and the weather is always a very important item to discuss for this day. Unfortunately, it looks like the timing of this front will be bad with respect to holiday travel. Rain chances will increase further, eventually reaching the likely category Wednesday night as the front approaches and pushes through. Lift and instability will increase and moisture will pool over the area as the front makes headway. It is too early to suggest the possibility of severe weather, but it can't be ruled out. The latter half of November is a prime time for severe weather around our part of the world. This is an issue that will be addressed early next week as it will be easier to dissect this system with more specificity. Nonetheless, as it stands right now, showers and thunderstorms will develop during the day Wednesday in the pre-frontal environment. This activity should be scattered in nature as it all feeds into the surface low up over the Red River Valley. It is likely that a squall line will initiate along the sharp cold front over Texas, and translate Eastward through the overnight hours across the forecast area. This is when the possibility of severe weather might occur, although at this juncture it seems as though the best dynamics will bypass this forecast area. Again, this is something I will discuss further next week. There will be plenty of convergence ahead of the front, and ample amounts of moisture, so rain chances will ramp up to likely for the overnight hours along and ahead of the front. Wednesday will mark the last day of unseasonable warmth for a little while. Highs will once again reach the mid to upper 70s after morning lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. Rainfall amounts could exceed an inch, and this will certainly help the drought situation. The bad news is the timing as many of you will be heading over the river and through the woods by that time to your Thanksgiving destination. This front will be the strongest one of the season this far, and there are signs that it will have teleconnections to the Arctic. Models have flip-flopped on the degree of cold air that will reach the Gulf Coast over the Thanksgiving holiday, but I believe it is safe to say that either way this will be the coldest air of the season. Rain chances may linger into the morning hours of Thanksgiving Day itself, but a marked improvement should occur as much colder and drier air works into the region behind the strong cold front. Expect skies to clear during the day with strong CAA in place and a large area of high pressure building in. Temperatures will start out in the 40s Thanksgiving morning followed by highs struggling to reach the 60 degree mark. Cold and dry weather is expected for the rest of Thanksgiving weekend 2010, and a significant frost could occur over the long weekend with the outside possibility of a freeze looming for the forecast area as well. Again, it all depends on the amount of cold air that flows in behind the strong cold front. Lows should generally be in the 30s while highs reach the 50s on Black Friday. A slow modification of the air mass will be noted for the rest of the holiday weekend, and it should be great weather for Christmas shopping and decorating. There is no doubt in my mind that the Arctic blast will come down into the U.S., but with the model uncertainties it is too early to say for sure if the coldest air will reach the Gulf Coast. The air mass will undoubtedly modify on its trek Southward due to lack of snow cover up North. The pattern favors a continued dry period with air mass modification through the remainder of November into early December.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 42/67 48/73 55/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 44/67 47/72 53/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 43/68 49/74 56/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 40/66 44/70 50/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 40/66 44/70 51/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 45/68 48/72 54/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clearing and Cool. Low 42. North wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 67. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear and Not as Cool. Low 48. Light East wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 73. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear with Patchy Fog developing after midnight. Low 55. Light SE wind.
Sunday...Mostly Sunny. High 78. SE wind around 10 mph.
Friday 11/19/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 4
Friday
11-19-10
Low: 42
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
11-20-10
Low: 48
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Sunday
11-21-10
Low: 55
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8-13
Monday
11-22-10
Low: 58
High: 79
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
11-23-10
Low: 62
High: 77
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Wednesday
11-24-10
Low: 62
High: 76
Rain: 40%...60% Night
Wind: SSE 15-20
Thursday
11-25-10
Thanksgiving
Low: 45
High: 59
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
......Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 7:00a.m. 8:02p.m.
High: 2:26p.m. 11:45p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.27'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Low: 46
Normal Low: 49
Record Low: 27-1959
High: 67
Normal High: 70
Record High: 87-1913
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.22"
Normal Month to Date: 2.71"
Year to Date: 31.47"
Normal Year to Date: 50.69"
Record: 3.37"- 2000
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 41
High: 67
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 35
High: 59
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 41
High: 45
Rain: 3.37"
Sunrise Friday: 6:41a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:15p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:11a.m.-5:45p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Sunday November 21
Last Quarter- Sunday November 28
New Moon- Sunday December 5
First Quarter- Monday December 13
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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